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poetfox
01-07-2012, 04:37 PM
Gather round! Gather round, fillies and gentlecolts. Gather and listen to a tale very few of you have heard, but one that everypony should know. I am Sweetsong, bard by trade, brought here to your fine town with a message, a story, and it would mean so much if you would listen.

Now, most of you have heard the tale of the six ponies from a small town called Ponyville, who gathered together and, with the Elements of Harmony, defeated the chaotic Discord, returning peace to our fair land. But what few know is the story that happened after. The story of what happened to those six brave ponies after their victory. It is a story of deceit, deception, and death. It is a story of broken bonds, and broken promises. It is a story of one town’s struggle to survive against insurmountable odds. It is a story of ponies, of us, of Equestria itself. Gather round, and listen to the tale of the Avatars of Discord.

Players will either be citizens of Ponyville, one of the Mane 6, or an Avatar of Discord. Normal citizens of Ponyville have no powers, but have been empowered to vote and lynch, as per usual. The Mane 6 are the powered citizens, and can also vote and such, of course. The Avatars of Discord are the Mafia. They get a night chat, as per usual, and a night kill. They are also empowered. All players will have a pony persona assigned to them in their PMs, including the Avatars, who have killed and replaced other ponies in their evil quest with their doppleganger-like powers.
The avatars win if they kill all of the Mane 6, or establish a voting majority. The town wins if all the avatars are destroyed.

Days are the standard 72 hours. Nights are the standard 48, with nopony able to talk in the thread until the night is over. Ties in voting are broken first by who has the most members of the Mane 6 voting for them, and if there is still a tie, then by dice roll. Please put your votes in bold so they're easy to count. Thanks.

We're all friends, but just in case, let's be clear: no posting after night is called, and no talking about the game outside of the game. That includes posting in the main Mafia thread. Infractions will be dealt with on a case by case basis, but seriously, let's just not do that and have a good time, okay?

The Mane 6
Twilight Sparkle: Representing the Element of Magic, Twilight is a master spellcaster. Once per night, she may cast a scrying spell and inspect a player, finding out their affiliation as either citizen, avatar, or member of the Mane 6.

Applejack: Representing the Element of Honesty, Applejack is a hard working, athletic pony with significant skills with a lasso. Once per night, Applejack may lasso and tie up a player, keeping them from using any powers they may or may not have that night.

Rainbow Dash: Representing the Element of Loyalty, Rainbow Dash’s speed is unmatched. Rainbow Dash may choose to perform a Sonic Rainboom during the night. This will be announced publicly, though who used the ability will not be revealed. That day, her vote will count for double, though again, this won’t be revealed publicly unless it breaks a tie or something of that nature. However, the act of doing such a complicated trick will tire her out, and she won’t be able to use the ability the next night.

Fluttershy: Representing the Element of Kindness, Fluttershy has learned many ways to be nice. Once per night, Fluttershy can pick a player. If that player were to die from a nightkill, Fluttershy’s care will save them instead, leaving them alive. If she saves someone, though, she’ll be exhausted, and won’t be able to pick another player to save for two nights of rest.

Pinkie Pie: Representing the Element of Laughter, Pinkie Pie knows how to throw a party. Once per day, Pinkie Pie can send a message to the GM requesting an invitation to a private party be sent to a player. She can then night chat with that player the following night, though the identities of either side of the conversation will not be revealed by the GM.

Rarity: Representing the Element of Generosity, Rarity knows that good fashion can be helpful in even the most dire of times. During the night Rarity can elect to create a stunning outfit for a player, and send it to them as a gift. That player will wear the outfit the next day, and be looking so overwhelmingly fabulous that nobody will be able to vote for them. That a person is wearing such an outfit will be public knowledge. However, once Rarity has given such a gift, she won’t be able to give one the next night, as it takes time to create a new outfit.

The Avatars of Discord
Avatar of Evil: This spirit has been blessed with the ability to look into the darkness of one’s soul, and find out what’s truly there. Once per night, the spirit can inspect a player, and learn if that player is a normal citizen or member of the Mane 6. That information won’t be available until the next day starts, however.

Avatar of Lies: This spirit is made of pure disinformation. Once per night, the spirit can pick a player to forge the identity of for any inspections that night and any lynches the next day. The avatar may pick whatever they’d like to come up as their false report.

Avatar of Mutiny: This spirit is built to hinder co-operation. Once per game, this spirit may, before a day moves into its final 24 hours, put a fog of mutiny over the town of Ponyville. All players must switch their votes, and may not vote for who they currently have a vote on that day. Anyone who does not change their vote is considered to have not voted.

Avatar of Darkness: This spirit dislikes the light, in all its forms. Once per game, the spirit may, during the night, elect to make the next day shorter by 24 hours.

Avatar of Madness: This spirit enjoys playing tricks, and breaking down the walls of sanity. Once per day, this spirit can send a message to the GM requesting that an invitation to a private party be sent to a player. The spirit can then night chat with that player the following night, though the identities of either side of the conversation will not be revealed by the GM.

Avatar of Silence: This spirit is jealous of the voices of ponies, and steals them away. During the night, this spirit may elect one player to silence during the next game day. That player can only vote, but not otherwise communicate. No shenanigans with voting to get around the spirit of the power, please.

Here are the actors in our story today:

botticus Adam
breakman Killed Night 3: Bon-bon
Brickroad Killed Night 4: Twilight Sparkle
Destil Killed Night 2: Pinkie Pie
Dizzy Killed Day 2: Mrs. Cup Cake
dtsund Killed Night 1: Rainbow Dash
dwolfe Killed Day 1: Avatar of Silence
Eddie Killed Night 7: Rarity
Egarwaen Killed Day 6: Big Macintosh
elementalpenguin
JohnB
Karzac
Lion Yamato
Merus Killed Day 5: Avatar of Mutiny
Mogri
Nich Killed Day 7: Avatar of Darkness
Nodal spineshark Killed Night 5: Berry Punch
Raven
Red Hedgehog
schep Killed Day 4: Photo Finish
Solitayre Killed Day 3: Hoity-Toity
Torgo
Umby
Yimothy

Now, let the story begin.

It all started with a scream, a loud scream, from the library. It was an inappropriate wake-up call for the town of Ponyville, but most go about their daily lives, only momentarily wondering what happened. They do not take the scream as the omen it is. Five friends, however, heeded the call. They rushed to the library, panting for breath, looking to one another before shoving the door open.

The scene before them was not a pleasant one. To one side of the scene, a crying unicorn, her purple hair mussed from just getting out of bed. This pony’s name was Twilight Sparkle, and this was the worst moment of her life thus far. Before her was a young dragon. His eyes looked shocked. His expression was mostly vacant now. He wasn’t moving. Dragon’s blood oozed slowly from his neck, dripping onto the stack of books he must have been gathering for his morning’s work. The puddle they made on the book cover slowly grew, a crimson splotch that hid the book’s title.

Spike was dead.

The five gathered friends gasped. They expected some sort of problem, but not this. Never this. The ponies stood there dumbfounded, unsure what to do. Fluttershy started crying, at the back of the pack. She fell to ground, and there was silence but for the sounds of sobbing, two ponies crying in unison. The others averted their eyes, trying not to look at the scene, trying to figure out what they could do to help. But there was little that could be done at this point.

Rarity finally broke the silence. “This is terrible.”

“Who would have done something like this?” Rainbow Dash asked, anger simmering in vocal undertones.

“It couldn’t have been anyone around here. Nopony in Ponyville would do… would do that,” Applejack said.

“I…” Everyone turned. Twilight was getting back on her hooves, eyes red from her crying. “I will figure out who did this. I will bring whoever did this to justice.”

“And we’ll be right here to help you,” Applejack said.

“All of us,” added Rarity.

“Look, in his mouth!” Pinkie Pie declared.

Everyone turned. There seemed to be a piece of paper stuck in the poor dragon’s mouth. Twilight picked it up. “It’s… it’s a letter… from the Princess…”

“Can… can you read it?” Rainbow Dash asked, unfortunately thinking of the blood which stained the scroll.

Twilight nodded, and read aloud.

My Faithful Student, Twilight Sparkle,

I’m afraid I send you terrible news. After your battle with Discord, I thought peace had been returned to Equestria. But I was wrong. Discord had a backup plan. He summoned six spirits, avatars of horrible things, into the world to destroy the Elements of Harmony if they were to be used to stop him again. Unfortunately, that means they are coming after you and your friends, bearers of the Elements. By the time I found out about this plot, the situation was already dire. My magic tracked them to Ponyville: they are near. I have erected a barrier around the town to seal them away to keep as few ponies as possible from getting hurt. Unfortunately, that also seals in you and the citizens of the town.

You must find these avatars and destroy them. It will not be easy. They are using a powerful enchantment to make them look like any other pony. They could be anyone in town, even someone you know, using their appearance to carry out their work. They will attack you if they find you. Enclosed is a spell to hide your identities. Use it to move around the town in safety, find these threats, and stop them. I apologize for putting you in such danger once again, but I know that you, and your friends, can stop this if you all work together.

May the power of friendship guide you,

Princess Celestia.

The six ponies looked at each other as everyone tried to process this new information. Finally, Twilight spoke again. “Spike was killed to keep us from getting this message. They didn’t want the Princess to warn us.”

“Poor Spike… even in his last breath, helping out…” Fluttershy said, sniffling.

“Girls, we have to stop these avatars. Let me prepare the spell. Rarity, could you give me a hoof?”

“Of course, darling, though you’re a much better magician than me.”

“We’ll… take care of Spike,” Applejack said.

“Yeah, he deserves better than to be sprawled on the floor like that,” Pinkie Pie added.

“Thank you…” said Twilight, taking a breath before turning to her magic, engulfing herself in work as she tried to push the lost of her friend from her mind, if for a moment.

It didn’t take long until Twilight had all of them enchanted. They looked at each other in wonder. They knew who each other should be, but they couldn’t process the information past the idea that they were familiar. Only knowledge of who was standing where when Twilight cast the spell let them know which pony was which.

“This is amazing!” said Pinkie Pie. “I can’t even tell who you all are! Who am I, huh? Do you know?”

“Yes, Pinkie, we know it’s you,” Twilight said, “but once we leave each other’s presence, it’s going to be near impossible to tell.”

“I don’t like all this hiding. Let’s just go out there and blast them,” Rainbow Dash said. “With the Elements, it should be easy.”

“But we could hurt someone else!” said Fluttershy.

“Right,” said Twilight, “We can’t just blast everyone in town. We need to find out where the avatars are first.”

“So stealth then,” said Rarity.

“Not really my thing, but if that’s what it takes…” Applejack said.

Twilight nodded. “It’s for the best. Let’s split up, and gather information. We can figure out who these avatars are in no time if we all work together.”

They all nodded, and headed out the door, only to stop immediately. There was a gathering at the town square, and all the ponies in town seemed to be in attendance. Above them, a shimmering magical barrier covered the town, making the sunlight seem slightly off.

“…need to be stopped.” said Mayor Mare. “We’re all trapped here, and I have been told we will not be freed until this crisis is taken care of.”

The crowd was complaining loudly.

“We must take this into our own hooves. We must save ourselves.”

There was a rumble of agreement.

“So I am enacting a rare clause of our town charter. Every day we will vote on who we think is one of these creatures infesting our town. Voting is mandatory for everypony of age. Whoever wins will be dealt with quickly. Soon, with all your help, we’ll have solved the problem. I’m sure of it.”

There was another rumble of agreement. Everypony was discussing how it seemed like the only solution. Nopony wanted to sit back while such evil invaded their town and hurt their friends. However, Twilight shuddered. She had read the town charter, and she assumed nobody else knew how serious those rules were. “Well… we’ll just have to find them faster, before anyone else gets killed…” she told herself. “I hope…”

Princess Celestia has raised the sun on the first day. Day ends in 72 hours.

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 04:45 PM
We can and should neuter the Avatar of Mutiny.

I propose that nobody places a vote at all until the final 24 hours of each day. This way we'll never get scrambled, and we'll never lose the plot on an otherwise promising lynch.

"But Brick! How do we keep the pressure up on them low-talkers? And what will we have to look back on in the form of voting records when Day 6 rolls around and we're this close to losing!?"

Simple: we come up with a surefire, easy-to-spot, officially unofficial vote. Like so:

I intend to vote for McClain.

This gives all the same information as an actual vote for McClain would, is super easy to spot when combing the thread for purposes of tallying records and doing research, and it can't be scrambled by the Avatar of Mutiny.

"But Briiiiick! What if the Avatar of Darkness comes along and ends the day before any of us vote!?"

A sound concern, but the bad guys can do that anyway. On any given day they can combine Mutiny and Darkness's powers to votebomb one of us into oblivion. That said, such votebombing is pretty much a desperation move, suitable as an endgame gambit and not much else. They do this, they tip their hand.

(Has anyone ever successfully votebombed on an early-ended day outside of Nich in M11?)

So yeah. Not much we can do about the other Avatars, but the Avatar of Mutiny can get right fucked. Thoughts?

Destil
01-07-2012, 04:54 PM
What the hell happens on a no-vote day for the lynch, though? Tie with everyone at 0, therefore a die roll?

Don't we want the avatar of Mutiny act at some point? They're the only player who can act during the day, so it's at least information. Fallible as any information based on the mafia's moves, of course, but isn't it inherently better to have a day where we have some sort of lead? The only day the avatar of Mutiny could actually fuck us over if we're smart is on the last day, otherwise we'd still have a chance to catch one or more of them from determining why the power was used.

Therefore, I'd say that we should only do have a plan like that at such point that the current day could be the last and the avatar of Mutiny hasn't acted.

[Also, someone's going to say "Fuck you Brick" and vote for you just for spite before this plan ever works, you know]

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 05:01 PM
What the hell happens on a no-vote day for the lynch, though? Tie with everyone at 0, therefore a die roll?

I don't see a way this could happen. Once day rolls into the last 24 hours, we all put our bolded votes on the table as per normal. If the day ends early, well, none of us will know that ahead of time anyway, and the only votes on the table will belong to Avatars.

Don't we want the avatar of Mutiny act at some point?

Um. No?

They're the only player who can act during the day, so it's at least information. Fallible as any information based on the mafia's moves, of course, but isn't it inherently better to have a day where we have some sort of lead?

I'll bet a buffalo nickle the Avatar of Mutiny acts by PMing poetfox, not by posting his/her intentions in the thread.

[Also, someone's going to say "Fuck you Brick" and vote for you just for spite before this plan ever works, you know]

I know. Fuck that guy! He's probably the Avatar of Mutiny.

Nodal
01-07-2012, 05:07 PM
Bricks plan seems legit. I honestly can't see the downside. Either they random lynch once or they vote bomb and show themselves once.

Destil
01-07-2012, 05:10 PM
I don't see a way this could happen. Once day rolls into the last 24 hours, we all put our bolded votes on the table as per normal. If the day ends early, well, none of us will know that ahead of time anyway, and the only votes on the table will belong to Avatars.It would happen the day the avatar of Darkness acts, naturally. You're suggesting that you expect each day that people will break this rule and vote early anyway, but on the day the avatar of darkness acts those people will only be other avatars?

Um. No?Why not? If they use the power because we're about to kill an avatar, it's our own stupid fault if we don't do that the next day. Yeah, there's tipple think involved beyond that point, but if it's not the last day I don't see how it doesn't add to the information we have available. The optimal scenario for them would be we never vote for a single avatar and they never have to use this power.

I'll bet a buffalo nickle the Avatar of Mutiny acts by PMing poetfox, not by posting his/her intentions in the thread.
Well, of course. My point is that we can infer as to when the decision was made and therefore try and determine why. If they aced at night we'd have less information because the're making the decision earlier.

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 05:18 PM
It would happen the day the avatar of Darkness acts, naturally. You're suggesting that you expect each day that people will break this rule and vote early anyway, but on the day the avatar of darkness acts those people will only be other avatars?

I'm expecting that, if people agree to the green-vote-intention plan, there won't ever be any votes before the 48-hour mark. That's kind of the point of the plan, Destil.

Why not? If they use the power because we're about to kill an avatar, it's our own stupid fault if we don't do that the next day. Yeah, there's tipple think involved beyond that point, but if it's not the last day I don't see how it doesn't add to the information we have available.

If we're about to kill an avatar, I'd rather the vote go through and have a dead avatar than add some nebulous value to our available information.

A dead avatar adds to our available information too, you know. We can go back through the thread and look at that avatar's vote record, who s/he's interacted with, what moves they've made, etc. More useful to our investigation than "they stopped us from killing [x]! Why!?"

The optimal scenario for them would be we never vote for a single avatar and they never have to use this power.

My intention is to make the power useless. There's more than one way to use Mutiny's power, after all, and some of them are more detrimental than "force the town to waste a lynch on their runner-up". I want to remove all of those possibilities from the equation.

fake edit:Also also, I just now noticed McClain isn't playing. I just now noticed this. I've been focusing on this anti-Mutiny plan for so long in my silly head that I haven't even read the goddamn player list.

Solitayre
01-07-2012, 05:23 PM
Man, you were just itching to drop your first vote on him, weren't you?

I am undecided how I feel about this plan. I do know that if even one pony, Avatar or not, decides not to follow it, the plan becomes useless. So keep that in mind. I'm glad it gives us something to talk about on Day 1, at least.

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 05:24 PM
I can see some sense in Brick's idea, but I really don't think it's something we need to worry about right now. A problem with it is that if the avatar of darkness survives until the point where we lose on a mislynch with power intact, they can shorten the day and drop a vote just before the end to kill whoever they want if nobody else is voting. But we probably also don't need to worry about that right now.

dtsund
01-07-2012, 05:26 PM
Twilight nodded. “It’s for the best. Let’s split up, and gather information. We can figure out who these avatars are in no time if we all work together.”

Ooh! Ooh! I love guessing games!

Anyway, though, Brick's plan seems solid to me. We might even be able to forestall a votebomb if we go into F5-mode as the 48-hour mark approaches; at the very least, me saying this and raising the possibility that it can happen might force more of the Avatars to reveal themselves in order to make it work.

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 05:31 PM
So what should someone do if they're going to be unavailable for the last 24 hours of a day? The OP says voting is mandatory.

dtsund
01-07-2012, 05:33 PM
I suspect that was just flavor.

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 05:35 PM
So what should someone do if they're going to be unavailable for the last 24 hours of a day? The OP says voting is mandatory.

"Hey guys, I know we've all agreed to hold off until the last 24 hours to vote, but I'm going to be [out of town/in the hospital/in a bomb shelter/at a funeral/climbing Mt. Everest] that day, so I need to vote early. I accuse..."

This isn't rocket science, dude.

Raven
01-07-2012, 05:37 PM
If we're about to kill an avatar, I'd rather the vote go through and have a dead avatar than add some nebulous value to our available information.

A dead avatar adds to our available information too, you know. We can go back through the thread and look at that avatar's vote record, who s/he's interacted with, what moves they've made, etc. More useful to our investigation than "they stopped us from killing [x]! Why!?"

The problem is we can't even take most of the lynch results at face value.

Because of Avatar of Lies. That one scared the hell out of me.

We can never be completely sure of an investigation/lynch result (except for Day 1 lynch result. Sigh), and there is going to be a serious lack of 100% credible information in this particular game. Most of our arguments are going to be based on circumstantial evidences instead of hard facts.

This spirit is made of pure disinformation. Once per night, the spirit can pick a player to forge the identity of for any inspections that night and any lynches the next day. The avatar may pick whatever they’d like to come up as their false report.

Question: does this mean that it must be the same person? Or The Avatar can choose one pony to be identity-forged for the investigation, AND another pony to be identity-forged on the next day's lynch?

dtsund
01-07-2012, 05:38 PM
I do know that if even one pony, Avatar or not, decides not to follow it, the plan becomes useless.

I'm rather curious as to why you think this. I mean, the point is to minimize the impact Mutiny can have on us; ideally, this will be zero impact, but if just one pony refuses and votes anyway, one corrupted vote is still not that much.

poetfox
01-07-2012, 05:47 PM
My Faithful Students,

Allow me to answer your rules questions. In the future, please bold any rules questions you would like me to give a royal decree on, though I of course reserve the right to keep silent, if need be.

What the hell happens on a no-vote day for the lynch, though? Tie with everyone at 0, therefore a die roll?

This is correct.

Question: does this mean that it must be the same person? Or The Avatar can choose one pony to be identity-forged for the investigation, AND another pony to be identity-forged on the next day's lynch?

Only one player can be picked per use of the power. It will affect that chosen player if scanned that night AND if lynched the next day. The Avatar does not get to pick one of each.

May the power of friendship guide you.
Princess Celestia

Lion Yamato
01-07-2012, 05:49 PM
Not much to add besides not seeing any reason not to follow through with Brickroad's plan.

I really don't see much sense in ever letting a power like Mutiny's have an opportunity to go through. It wouldn't be used unless it looked likely that an Avatar would be lynched, since it's confined to being used only once per game and it'd be a waste otherwise. Therefore, why would you give them an opportunity to survive a lynch? I'm perfectly fine with denying them that.

Solitayre
01-07-2012, 05:50 PM
I'm rather curious as to why you think this. I mean, the point is to minimize the impact Mutiny can have on us; ideally, this will be zero impact, but if just one pony refuses and votes anyway, one corrupted vote is still not that much.

One vote before the 48 hour mark on a day that ends early is kind of a big deal.

Mogri
01-07-2012, 05:53 PM
"Hey guys, I know we've all agreed to hold off until the last 24 hours to vote, but I'm going to be [out of town/in the hospital/in a bomb shelter/at a funeral/climbing Mt. Everest] that day, so I need to vote early. I accuse..."

This isn't rocket science, dude.

Failing to change your vote is equivalent to not voting anyway.

Vote: Guild anyway, on the off-chance he wasn't lying.

Torgo
01-07-2012, 05:53 PM
Holding off on voting sounds like a solid plan. It'll make me nearly incapable of last minute (re)voting since I get off from my day job half an hour before a day ends.

One vote before the 48 hour mark on a day that ends early is kind of a big deal.
I think you're either mistaking powers or misreading them. Mutiny forces everyone to change their vote. Darkness ends the following day early. Not the current day.

Torgo
01-07-2012, 05:56 PM
Holding off on voting sounds like a solid plan. It'll make me nearly incapable of last minute (re)voting since I get off from my day job half an hour before a day ends.
Clarification: The second sentence is not a justification for why I think it's a good idea. What I meant to say was that I think it's a good idea despite the fact that it makes it harder for me to keep up on any last minute proceedings on a given day.

Nodal
01-07-2012, 05:56 PM
"Hey guys, I know we've all agreed to hold off until the last 24 hours to vote, but I'm going to be [out of town/in the hospital/in a bomb shelter/at a funeral/climbing Mt. Everest] that day, so I need to vote early. I accuse..."

This isn't rocket science, dude.

The plan only works if everyone follows it... Otherwise it's pointless because someone can just say they had to go bone a pony or something.

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 06:05 PM
(Brick is already leaving a loophole wide open)

I'm not "leaving a loophole" anywhere. It's possible there's a trip-up I haven't noticed, but that's not my intention. If you see a flaw in the idea, please share with the class. Otherwise I'll thank you for not poisoning the well.

Torgo
01-07-2012, 06:10 PM
Another thought regarding the current Plan. I hesitate to bring it up because they're out there listening, but I'd rather have possibilities out in the open then staying mum on 'em on the off chance they won't either think of them or we can use them against us.

1) One would (not) hope that Mutiny would be so dumb, but scrambling a mare one or two early voters on a given day could be presented as evidence of confirmation. There's a lot of potential ways to twist it: A confirmed innocent on the right track and/or a confirmed Avatar that was being voted against. There's a lot of ways to turn that power around and still make use of it, so we need to keep it in mind.

Torgo
01-07-2012, 06:13 PM
use them against us.
*sigh*

dtsund
01-07-2012, 06:14 PM
For my part, I'll probably try to turn in my initial votes just shy (like, seconds to a minute shy) of the 48-hour mark.

Note also that in order for Mutiny to take effect, poetfox actually has to receive the PM(?) and act on it. This puts a practical lower bound on how little time they can leave between sending the order and the 48-hour mark, so I think my idea is sound.

dwolfe
01-07-2012, 06:14 PM
Bricks plan seems legit. I honestly can't see the downside. Either they random lynch once or they vote bomb and show themselves once.

Brickroad's suggestion makes sense, but it does sound more like an end-game move than an early-game move. We'll act differently if we're worried about these powers coming into play than we will after they've been used.

dtsund
01-07-2012, 06:18 PM
I also wonder if some of the people stirruping this argument, one way or the other, are Avatars trying to reduce our discourse to chaos.

Also, since we usually have either no good targets or several, and typically someone who got a pass on a lynch one day can just be lynched the following day anyway, I'm not really sure how much it matters.

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 06:20 PM
I was referring to the same thing Nodal was. You can't say "nobody is allowed to vote at all before the 48-hour mark" and then also say "you can vote if you really need to." How is that not an easily exploitable loophole?

I'd say it's not easily exploitable because while one guy doing it looks natural, three guys doing it looks suspicious. Or, one guy doing it every single day looks suspicious.

It's not a perfect plan, I get that. We'll have to use our best judgment if/when it happens, just like with anything in this crazy game.

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 06:23 PM
I think you're either mistaking powers or misreading them. Mutiny forces everyone to change their vote. Darkness ends the following day early. Not the current day.

Just because the idea is aimed at the avatar of mutiny doesn't mean it doesn't involve the avatar of darkness. At some point a day will end early, and only the avatars will know it's coming. If we're all not voting, then they can make that day end however they want, maybe by claiming they'll be out of town or something. Or by being dtsund and posting right before the 48 hour mark.

Mogri
01-07-2012, 06:26 PM
I also wonder if some of the people stirruping this argument, one way or the other, are Avatars trying to reduce our discourse to chaos.

It's not like fake-votes are any less discoursey than real ones.

Nodal
01-07-2012, 06:27 PM
I'd say it's not easily exploitable because while one guy doing it looks natural, three guys doing it looks suspicious. Or, one guy doing it every single day looks suspicious.

It's not a perfect plan, I get that. We'll have to use our best judgment if/when it happens, just like with anything in this crazy game.

I'm officially against the plan now. I'm not spending every day talking about whether brickroad really had to go wash a clown on day 3.

Dizzy
01-07-2012, 06:28 PM
Yeah Brick's idea seems sturdy. I can't figure out a way to subvert the powers of the other Avatars.

schep
01-07-2012, 06:30 PM
"But Briiiiick! What if the Avatar of Darkness comes along and ends the day before any of us vote!?"

A sound concern, but the bad guys can do that anyway. On any given day they can combine Mutiny and Darkness's powers to votebomb one of us into oblivion.

I don't understand this claim. Suppose on some day later, it's become somewhat obvious who one of the Avatars is. If we don't follow Brickroad's plan, the best the Avatars can do is a shell game where we have to guess when the day will end. If we follow Brickroad's plan, we're the ones giving Darkness the power to mess with our vote.

Princess Celestia: Does the spell the Mane Six are using give them alternate identities, or just prevent easy recognition?

Torgo
01-07-2012, 06:32 PM
Just because the idea is aimed at the avatar of mutiny doesn't mean it doesn't involve the avatar of darkness. At some point a day will end early, and only the avatars will know it's coming. If we're all not voting, then they can make that day end however they want, maybe by claiming they'll be out of town or something. Or by being dtsund and posting right before the 48 hour mark.
The rules don't explicitly state that we won't know that the day is ending early.

Hey Celestia, will we know if Darkness has used his power if and when that day comes?

Also, reread Mutiny:
This spirit is built to hinder co-operation. Once per game, this spirit may, before a day moves into its final 24 hours, put a fog of mutiny over the town of Ponyville. All players must switch their votes, and may not vote for who they currently have a vote on that day. Anyone who does not change their vote is considered to have not voted.
The bolded sentence is the key there. They can't pull the rug from under us at the last second, because Mutiny's power doesn't expire at the 48 hour mark, it expires 24 hours before the current day ends. So in a shortened day, Mutiny will have to use his power within 24 hours.

dtsund
01-07-2012, 06:35 PM
It's not like fake-votes are any less discoursey than real ones.

No no no, I mean by trying to make us talk about nothing but the plan instead of, say, who we should lynch.

I intend, for now, to accuse Yimothy. Because random.org told me to, and because:

http://i869.photobucket.com/albums/ab252/dtsund/Hidden/burgerpony.png

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 06:36 PM
The bolded sentence is the key there. They can't pull the rug from under us at the last second, because Mutiny's power doesn't expire at the 48 hour mark, it expires 24 hours before the current day ends. So in a shortened day, Mutiny will have to use his power within 24 hours.

Oooh, this is a good catch. So basically, if we see a message saying we've been scrambled after the 24-hour mark, we know something really fucky is about to go down.

For what it's worth, I agree with Raven that the Avatar of Lies is the most dangerous of them. This doesn't have much bearing on the current discussion, but I didn't want his comment to go unnoticed.

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 06:38 PM
I intend, for now, to accuse Yimothy.

Careful, dt. That line is in bold, so poet might still count it as a for-real vote.

IMG]http://i869.photobucket.com/albums/ab252/dtsund/Hidden/burgerpony.png[/IMG]

Cheesy Mane is bestpony.

dtsund
01-07-2012, 06:39 PM
The Avatar of Lies is also dangerous because that one can out the Mane 6, and we lose if we lose all of them.

dtsund
01-07-2012, 06:40 PM
Whoops. s/Lies/Evil/.

I felt that was worth a post, since it's a subtle difference from past games that somepony may have overlooked.

poetfox
01-07-2012, 06:41 PM
My Faithful Students,

Princess Celestia: Does the spell the Mane Six are using give them alternate identities, or just prevent easy recognition?

Everypony has been assigned one, and only one, identity. For the Avatars, this is not tied to their abilities, and they could be anypony. For the Mane 6, their abilities are clearly tied to who they are.

Hey Celestia, will we know if Darkness has used his power if and when that day comes?

It will not be announced. You will learn the day has been shortened when my sister ends the day early!

May the power of friendship guide you.
Princess Celestia

dtsund
01-07-2012, 06:45 PM
My dear Princess Celestia,

Does that bolded statement I made count as a vote,

With utmost gratitude,

Cheesy Mane

Torgo
01-07-2012, 06:45 PM
The Avatar of Lies is also dangerous because that one can out the Mane 6, and we lose if we lose all of them.
No, that's what Evil does. Lies forges an identity.

Example 1: Lies forges an identity for, say, Darkness. The forgery he creates for him is that he is Rarity. If Twilight Sparkle then investigates the player that is darkness, he will come up as Rarity. Furthermore, if we (for whatever reason) lynch him the next day, he will also come up as Rarity.

Lies is a power that can potentially be used against us in some very bad ways.

Dizzy
01-07-2012, 06:47 PM
Sure seems like you know a lot more than the rest of us Torgo!

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 06:53 PM
No no no, I mean by trying to make us talk about nothing but the plan instead of, say, who we should lynch.

I intend, for now, to accuse Yimothy. Because random.org told me to, and because:

http://i869.photobucket.com/albums/ab252/dtsund/Hidden/burgerpony.png

You're putting up an intention based on random.org? What's the point? And are you saying your vote is cheeseburger, or that I've been cheeseburgering talking about the plan? It isn't a random intended vote if you've got another reason for it.

Anyway, like I mentioned just before you voted for me but more explicitly stated now that you have, I think your intention to cast votes just before the 48-hour mark is pretty suspicious. Later in the game if you kill an innocent doing that then you've set yourself up with an excuse. Or, you get the avatar of lies to make someone appear guilty and then kill them with your last minute vote, making you look really good.

dtsund
01-07-2012, 07:00 PM
You're putting up an intention based on random.org? What's the point? And are you saying your vote is cheeseburger, or that I've been cheeseburgering talking about the plan? It isn't a random intended vote if you've got another reason for it.

I'm saying it's a cheeseburger vote to get people talking; the cheeseburger part was mostly because I wanted an excuse to post that pony. The 'intend' part was simply in keeping with the plan I've said I think is good; in any other game, that would have been an outright accusation. Would you be taking offense if I'd outright accused you based on random.org?

You seem pretty twitchy, so I'm comfortable leaving my vote on you for now.

Torgo
01-07-2012, 07:06 PM
It will not be announced. You will learn the day has been shortened when my sister ends the day early!
Ok, so this does present us with one possible wrinkle in the Late Voting Plan: Darkness initiates an early day, and the Avatars stack a vote against one of us. Theoretically it could be a very easy lynch for them, but it does leave us with a couple possible advantages if we hold to the plan.

1) Any votes on the shortened day can be considered suspicious.

2) We can at least be rest assured that at least one early vote is almost surely an Avatar. Because Darkness has to initiate the shortened day the night before, they practically have to vote in order to ensure that someone they want gets lynched. Otherwise they're leaving it completely to chance that a civilian or one of the Mane 6 will throw out an early vote against them.

Destil
01-07-2012, 07:07 PM
Well, that's enough to satisfy me that the plan has some merit, though I agree with Nodal that it's more relevant in the late-game than right now. I was more afraid that Brick was, as always, dismissing the possibility of detective work based on Mutiny.

The avatar of lies is easily the most scary and potentially powerful power we've ever seen the mafia get, but there's not a lot to talk about it until it becomes relevant after they have a chance to act.

Questions for the princess:

What, exactly, do we learn about the pony lynched and the pony night killed? What do we see instead of the Avatar of Lies forges them?

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 07:16 PM
Would you be taking offense if I'd outright accused you based on random.org?

I'd've been surprised, and I'd still think it odd that you'd voted for me right after I pointed out that you'd given yourself an excuse to control the vote on the shortened day.

poetfox
01-07-2012, 07:24 PM
My Faithful Students,

My dear Princess Celestia,

Does that bolded statement I made count as a vote,

With utmost gratitude,

Cheesy Mane

Yes, it does.

What, exactly, do we learn about the pony lynched and the pony night killed? What do we see instead of the Avatar of Lies forges them?

You will see which pony they were, and what their affiliation is on a lynch. If they are forged, you will see whatever pony and affiliation the Avatar decides you will see. On a nightkill, you will see what pony they were, but not their affiliation. I would normally say it wouldn't be worth mentioning that you wouldn't see their affiliation but, well, look at last game.

May the power of friendship guide you.
Princess Celestia

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 07:24 PM
I was more afraid that Brick was, as always, dismissing the possibility of detective work based on Mutiny.

I would like to go on record as saying this is absolutely not what I was doing. By all means, detective away, me hearties.

dtsund
01-07-2012, 07:40 PM
Alright.

I would like to unvote Yimothy while still pointing my hoof firmly in his direction.

Solitayre
01-07-2012, 07:47 PM
While I agree the Avatar of Lies is dangerous, I would not discount the Avatar of Madness. The ability to night chat with another player has, historically, been an extremely powerful, game-altering ability. I think we should figure out what we want to do if someone gets contacted at night.

breakman
01-07-2012, 08:09 PM
Princess Celestia,

If the Avatar of Mutiny uses their power when there are, say, 36 hours remaining until the end of the day, when will the power take effect?

botticus
01-07-2012, 08:29 PM
I can live with Brick's idea if it has significant support, but I think we're minimizing the importance of actual votes. Counting unofficial votes is all well and good, but given their non-binding nature you offer an opportunity for bad guys to make themselves look good by pretend-voting for other bad guys without consequences. Or just not "intend" to vote because it doesn't mean anything.

While Mutiny has the potential to cause some problems, the two likely scenarios outside of the endgame are:

1) They stop us from lynching an Avatar, who we can go after the next day.
2) They stop us from lynching a pony to make us think they're an Avatar, who we go after the next day. Which isn't that big a deal because we were probably going to lynch them anyway.

[Horse in mind that unless the lead vote-getter at the time of the Mutiny has votes from nearly all players, they could still be lynched the same day by a smart stable of ponies.]

And in either case we lynch somebody else that day anyway who could be an Avatar or not. And also in either case or any other unrelated case the Lies could fuck with us.

poetfox
01-07-2012, 08:35 PM
My Faithful Students,
Princess Celestia,

If the Avatar of Mutiny uses their power when there are, say, 36 hours remaining until the end of the day, when will the power take effect?

Immediately, or as immediately as possible given my royal duties. The Avatar of Mutiny can feel free to withdraw a request if I unfortunately don't get to it in the window they're wanting to use it in and they feel like it would not longer be useful.

May the power of friendship guide you.
Princess Celestia

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 08:45 PM
I can live with Brick's idea if it has significant support, but I think we're minimizing the importance of actual votes. Counting unofficial votes is all well and good, but given their non-binding nature you offer an opportunity for bad guys to make themselves look good by pretend-voting for other bad guys without consequences.

They can do this anyway by changing or retracting their vote. (Or by placing a vote they know will be scrambled and thrown out when Mutiny acts.)

Or just not "intend" to vote because it doesn't mean anything.

Which is the functional equivalent of simply not voting at all in the first 48 hours, which is a common and valid playstyle. (Which has implications all its own, when the vote records start getting tallied in the mid-game.)

I would be extremely suspicious of someone who put down a green vote but didn't follow through, for the same reason I would be suspicious of someone who retracts a vote at the eleventh hour without explanation.

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 08:55 PM
Regarding the private party, I think it's probably best if Pinkie Pie never use her power. I don't see what she has to gain, and if she gets chatting with an avatar and they figure out who she is, we lose one of the Mane 6. So if you're on the receiving end of a conversation, it's probably best to assume you're talking to the avatar of madness.

When the rules say that the identities of players in nightchat are not revealed by the GM, does that just mean which ponies they are, or will the participants also not be told which player they're talking to?

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 09:06 PM
Is anyone else uncomfortable with flat out telling a powered townie "don't use your power ever"?

I'm-a vote for Yimothy.

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 09:09 PM
OK, but do you have a problem with my reasoning?

breakman
01-07-2012, 09:13 PM
I like Brickroad's plan. If nothing else, we won't forget about the threat of Mutiny's power. That said, I think there is 0% chance that the powers of Mutiny and Darkness will take effect on the same day.

Also, with regard to Lies, we cannot assume that we are safe from the powers of Darkness or Mutiny unless they actually use them. Unless we can lynch one of them today.

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 09:20 PM
OK, but do you have a problem with my reasoning?

Yes. A one-way message to a confirmed (or even mostly-confirmed) townie may have value. You don't necessarily have to talk to Pinkie; just listening may strengthen our position.

Simply knowing who was contacted at night may have value as well. Any small piece of info may be the key to trapping an avatar 30 pages into the game, even something as simple as "Pinkie contacted me two nights in a row."

poetfox
01-07-2012, 09:21 PM
My Faithful Students,
When the rules say that the identities of players in nightchat are not revealed by the GM, does that just mean which ponies they are, or will the participants also not be told which player they're talking to?

Pinkie Pie and the Avatar of Madness will clearly know what player they are trying to talk to, but the other side of the conversation won't know anything besides the fact they were invited and the location of the night chat, and I won't be reminding Pinkie/the Avatar of who they are talking to either. Pony Identities won't be revealed at all.

May the power of friendship guide you.
Princess Celestia

Eddie
01-07-2012, 09:30 PM
Hey Gents (and.. pony gents?) I'm nursing a sick girlfriend so my access for today and tomorrow will be a bit limited.

I'm down with any plan to minimize damage done from the Evil Doppelganger Ponies. I'm still scratching my head at the "no votes before 24 hours are left" rule but I'll think about it and post if I see any issues with it tomorrow. I also agree with Brick that not using the party power is dumb. If Pinkie Pie is worried about giving away their identity, he or she could run it through an English to Moonlanguage translator and back, which should kill any particular speech peculiarities.

- Eddie

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 09:43 PM
Well, ok. If i were Pinkie, I'd be keeping my mouth shut, anyway. I don't think there's a lot to gain, but there's a decent chance of being exposed. I still think anyone contacted should treat the person contacting them as likely to be an avatar, just maybe not to the point of outing them in the thread.

I think the best use we can make of Pinkie is shutting down the avatar of madness. If Pinkie doesn't nightchat, then the avatar can't either. But that would require unanimous consent, and that's not likely.

Umby
01-07-2012, 09:55 PM
I'm good with Brick's plan. I do not intend to vote for anyone right now, and I need to reread the thread tomorrow to get a feel for who I feel is suspicious.

In terms of people who are thinking that Brick's plan is exploitable, I don't see why one would want to vote early anyhow, unless the Avatars wanted to nail a certain person and ended the day before anyone voted. Still, though, that's not a completely horrible thing, and I still think Brick's plan is good despite the small loophole.

Eddie
01-07-2012, 10:59 PM
I think I may have a great idea.

Remember the cyphers I used back in The Organization?

Here's my plan:

1. I create eight cyphers based off of posts in this game (both before and after this one).
2. Pinkie Pie contacts me tonight, and I can give her 8 codes with keys to solve them.
3. I (and every person Pinkie Pie talks with) will post the next code in the thread the following day.
4. When Pinkie Pie contacts someone, they can prove that THEY are Pinkie Pie by having the appropriate code to solve it. Pinkie Pie then gives the person a new code to post in the thread the next day.

The only hitch is that Pinkie Pie must prove herself over the Avatar of Whoever is Partying too. If we can plug that hole, we might be able to plug the Pinkie Pie one.

- Eddie

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 11:07 PM
So if Pinkie proves herself, she can then prove herself? I don't get it. And she's still risking outing herself to the avatars. What's the benefit of this scheme?

Brickroad
01-07-2012, 11:09 PM
I think I get it.

Nodal
01-07-2012, 11:37 PM
I like eddies plan but what I don't like is that we're putting the game in eddies hands. I don't know that I trust Eddie enough.

JohnB
01-07-2012, 11:41 PM
It's not like fake-votes are any less discoursey than real ones.

To me this is the most compelling argent so far in favor of the plan. And, unlike in previous games, I'm not actually opposed so much to this little group participation activity. Frankly, the heat someone will get for violating this probably is incentive enough to comply, given how simple the damn thing is. At the same time, if it's blown to hell and multiple people start voting "early" on a given Day, well, we've lost what exactly? I think the potential rewards do outweigh by enough margin the relative risk. I actually like this idea, for once.

Yimothy
01-07-2012, 11:51 PM
I get that Eddie's plan lets us know if people have been contacted by the same person as each other, but unless Eddie can be sure he's been contacted by Pinkie it can't be implemented. Maybe there could be two codes, and if we ever proved one was being used by Pinkie we'd know the other was the avatar, or the reverse. But I still think silence is Pinkie's best move.

Destil
01-08-2012, 02:18 AM
Yeah, at the very best Eddie's plan could be used to solidly lock in who's pinky and who's the avatar after the fact if one ever reveals. But revealing in this game as a powered citizen is such a bad idea I'm not sure that it could ever come up as relevent.

Also, I had problems getting the cipher right, and so did Eddie at times. Not to overstate my own intelligence or anything, but I spent something like six hours in front of a scripting interpreter with that thing. And I still made mistakes. It's sort of easy to mess up and super time consuming.

Yimothy
01-08-2012, 03:42 AM
I don't like this plan at all. The idea of being able to tell whether you've been contacted by Pinkie or the Avatar is good, but I don't trust Eddie to make the judgement of which is which, both because I don't know if he's on our side or not, and because I don't trust anyone, myself included, to accurately figure out who's who. I think having more information about Pinkie's activity out there just increases the chances she'll be discovered and killed.

The thing about this game is that we lose if all our power roles are killed. To me, that means that our powered players' most important duty isn't to win the game with their awesome powers (especially since some of them aren't all that awesome), but to stay alive. And staying alive means staying hidden. The protector can only make one save every three nights, so anyone who get revealed can expect to die either that night or the one after.

In my opinion, Twilight Sparkle and Fluttershy have useful powers. Applejack might be able to do something useful, but she's just as likely to block a town power role. Rainbow Dash could potentially break a tie in the town's favour, but could also break it against, and doing either gives the avatars a start on finding her. Pinkie Pie I think doesn't have a useful power at all unless she's willing to take pretty big risks about trusting people (she could, for example, convey information from Twilight Sparkle to a vanilla pony so that it could be revealed to the town without TS being outed, but it would involve all concerned trusting each other more than I think is wise). Rarity's power depends on her knowing that someone is innocent even though the town thinks otherwise, which I don't see happening with anyone except herself, and using her power on herself would out her and get her killed.

So I think the power roles should focus on staying undercover, and be very careful about how they use their powers. In Pinkie's case, this means keeping quiet. But it's not up to me: if she thinks I'm talking sense, she can take my advice. If she likes what Eddie's thinking, she can message him.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 05:27 AM
I would like Yimothy to fill in these blanks for each of the Mane Six:

"If I, Yimothy, were [pony], I would [optimal strategy]."

Because I really want to see where he's coming from with all of this "our powers suck, doom doom gloom" hornswaggle.

Red Hedgehog
01-08-2012, 06:38 AM
I like Brick's plan. Not that Mutiny will use their power early (to good effect anyway), but anything that effectively nullifies a mafia power is good in my book.

Eddie
01-08-2012, 06:41 AM
Pinkie Pie has the potential to be one of the strongest powers in the game, especially if he or she can prevent the "fake" pinkie pie from being able to use their power.

Might I suggest role PM shenanigans? As long as it doesn't irk Poetfox's craw (and she has made no mention of it in her OP, which would be strange given how misused they've been in past games) then we could effectively use Pinkie Pie as an "inspector" of sorts. As long as we could shut the nega-Pinkie Pie out (and we could with a cypher) then each person he or she talks to could confirm their guilt/innocence to them.

Of course, this is all based on whether Poetfox would allow such depravity.

(Please allow such depravity!)

And dtsund, I would strive to make the chypers relatively simple to figure out, but difficult to solve without the appropriate code to go with them. It would be something like "perform this operation on each number and using this post and you'll get this". Also keep in mind that I made up the chyper on the spot in the Organization.

But bottom line guys: the Mane Six have powers and we should strive to use them to their utmost. I don't even see Pinkie Pie "accidentally" revealing him/herself being an issue since there are numerous ways to break up one's typical speech pattern.

- Eddie

schep
01-08-2012, 06:51 AM
Everypony has been assigned one, and only one, identity. For the Avatars, this is not tied to their abilities, and they could be anypony. For the Mane 6, their abilities are clearly tied to who they are.

In case anypony missed the point of this: ordinary citizen ponies should not reveal or roleplay their identities. Doing so would make it easier for the Avatars to find the Mane Six by elimination.

On any given day they can combine Mutiny and Darkness's powers to votebomb one of us into oblivion.

So was that statement based on the (incorrect) belief that the power of Mutiny could be used just before day's end on a short day? Since that's not the case, do you still think the late voting is worth strengthening the power of Darkness?

I just don't think the power of Mutiny is dangerous enough to need this sort of countermeasure, if that measure has other drawbacks.

If everypony else wants to go with Brickroad's idea though, I don't see that much harm in it. But for the record, if I ever have strong reasons to suspect a pony, I may cast an official vote well before the 48 hour mark.

Dizzy
01-08-2012, 06:56 AM
2. Pinkie Pie contacts me tonight, and I can give her 8 codes with keys to solve them.


This is why the plan will not work. How can we trust Eddie and Eddie trust he is being contacted by Pinkie Pie? Before we get into how this whole code system thing works, which seems open to fraudulence because the mafia have as much input and information as the rest of us with the added benefit of being able to conspire within the shadows, we're already running into two major obstacles of trust and verification.

I agree with Yimothy. Let the manes stay hidden for now.

Merus
01-08-2012, 07:02 AM
So I guess I should log on here. I'm really not sure what the current metagame is over what we do on day 1, but if it's 'discuss the rules' than okay. I can do that.

Re: Avatar of Mutiny: all for this plan. I don't know if we'll get away with it, because I think poetfox is the kind of GM who'll count clearly marked 'intended' votes purely to circumvent powers as actual votes based on the description of Silence. Even if it doesn't work, it'll distract Mutiny from the game a little bit as they work out how to finagle their power back into usefulness, and that's enough for me. Seems like it's not that strong a power, though; the only use I can see for it is buying a mafioso the last day they need.

I'm not too worried about the Avatar of Lies because in my limited experience it just means that people don't really trust the lynches and inspections too much. There's plenty of ways for information to come out, and Lies can't hide connections between players. Evil, Madness and Darkness are the ones that worry me the most, in that order. I don't really want to suggest that the Mane 6 hang back as they're going to be great sources for information, but that's the only way I can think of to ensure the Avatars don't spot them. Ideas?

Eddie
01-08-2012, 07:03 AM
This is why the plan will not work. How can we trust Eddie and Eddie trust he is being contacted by Pinkie Pie? Before we get into how this whole code system thing works, which seems open to fraudulence because the mafia have as much input and information as the rest of us with the added benefit of being able to conspire within the shadows, we're already running into two major obstacles of trust and verification.

I agree with Yimothy. Let the manes stay hidden for now.

Do you have any ideas on how we might make it work, or are you going to be a negative nancy and simply let the mafia win because of their superior position?

- Eddie

Yimothy
01-08-2012, 07:11 AM
Pinkie Pie can shut down the fake Pinkie by never using her power. Or by somehow proving her identity to Eddie and then his plan continuing. Eddie, I'm into role PM shenanigans, but what makes you think Pinkie knows what a townie role PM looks like? Or the PMs of the other Mane 6ers? Or that the avatars don't know what regular PMs look like?

Anyway, by request:
If I were Twilight Sparkle, I'd investigate people I thought were suspicious. I might do that thing that schep (was it schep?) did last game and make "If I'm TS, I investigated X and they were clean/dirty" posts, if other people were doing it too.
If I were Applejack, I'd either not use my power or else aim it at someone I thought was suspicious. I dunno. Since I think most of the town powers aren't that great, blocking them probably isn't that big of a loss.
If I were Rainbow Dash, I think I wouldn't use my power, but I guess I might be tempted. Later in the game when the numbers get tighter I think I'd be more likely to use it.
If I were Fluttershy I'd protect myself unless I thought there was someone in particular who was more likely to get nightkilled, like an outed power role.
If I were Pinkie Pie, I'd keep my mouth shut at night.
If I were Rarity, I wouldn't use my power. Maybe if the endgame gets like last time and the game stood to end after the next lynch I'd protect myself. Or if I was for some reason absolutely certain I was getting lynched next. I don't see myself protecting anyone else from the lynch because I wouldn't have any more information than the rest of the town. If everyone else wants the lynch, why should I think myself more right?

Yimothy
01-08-2012, 07:13 AM
I just went back and looked at Brick's post again and realised he was requesting optimal strategies, not just what I'd do. So my previous post is probably inaccurate. But do I think playing cautiously is a better strategy for the Mane 6 than using powers just because they have them.

Merus
01-08-2012, 07:19 AM
Do you have any ideas on how we might make it work, or are you going to be a negative nancy and simply let the mafia win because of their superior position?

- Eddie

I'm sure it's doable, but can someone explain to me how being able to talk to a different player each night ends up being so powerful? And if we're worried about knowing whether or not we're talking to an Avatar, shouldn't we also be worried about Pinkie picking an Avatar to talk to?

Sorry, I haven't paid attention to Mafia for like a year.

schep
01-08-2012, 07:36 AM
As long as we could shut the nega-Pinkie Pie out (and we could with a cypher) then each person he or she talks to could confirm their guilt/innocence to them.

How would Pinkie Pie know anything about anyone's guilt/innocence after any party? If there were any way to form a block of trust with the cyphers and parties, it would be an awesome help. But unless I'm missing something, all we learn is whom Pinkie Pie (and maybe Madness) chose to party with.

The cyphers would be such that Pinkie Pie can verify them all tonight, right? Which means even if Eddie has ulterior motives, he wouldn't be able to sabotage them or anything.

If there's any cyphering, please make two sequences, so that if you get invited to two parties tonight you can give the half the codes to each powered pony. Then even if Madness tries to play too, we'd be able to know whether two parties were set up by the same pony, and could maybe figure out which set were Pinkie and which Madness later in the game.

Raven
01-08-2012, 07:37 AM
Yimothy's got a point, and I can see that it is a good way to neuter Mutiny while keeping one of our power role in the dark. But, ultimately it all depends on Pinkie herself; if she can comes up with a good strategy (and confident enough of her persuasion skills and ability to conceal her writing style) to take advantage of all her partying, then I'd say just go at it. I have a feeling that we won't win this one by playing completely safe.



Might I suggest role PM shenanigans? As long as it doesn't irk Poetfox's craw (and she has made no mention of it in her OP, which would be strange given how misused they've been in past games) then we could effectively use Pinkie Pie as an "inspector" of sorts. As long as we could shut the nega-Pinkie Pie out (and we could with a cypher) then each person he or she talks to could confirm their guilt/innocence to them.


Wait, it won't work. If I'm not mistaken, it said somewhere in the rules that every Avatar had an alternate identity as regular pony, so I assumed that they also have an extra copy of Role PM they can use to fool Pinkie.

Also, since there will be role-reveal on night-kills (meaning we will know if one of the Mane Six died by night-kill), schep's If-I'm-Inspector strategy from the last game seems to be a great idea to be used starting tomorrow.

Raven
01-08-2012, 07:47 AM
Yimothy's got a point, and I can see that it is a good way to neuter Mutiny Madness while keeping one of our power role in the dark.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 07:49 AM
So was that statement based on the (incorrect) belief that the power of Mutiny could be used just before day's end on a short day? Since that's not the case, do you still think the late voting is worth strengthening the power of Darkness?

Darkness does the avatars no good unless they can sneak at least one real vote in before poetfox calls night. If we all decide "no early voting", and then get blindsided with an early day that ends with a townie lynch thanks to a single deciding vote, we wake up the next day and have an easy lynch.

(And this is where we'll have to make a judgment call in the event of "sorry I won't be here tomorrow guys". Maybe if you aren't going to be here tomorrow, it's just best to make a green vote and not chance it. We should discuss this more if the situation actually comes up.)

Either that, or Darkness will act on the last possible day, winning the game for the avatars. (Hopefully we get our shit together before things get to that point.)

Or, I suppose, the avatars will all play along and we'll see one early day with zero votes and a random lynch. If they're going to throw those dice though, they're going to throw them early. I'll take my chances with a 48-hour Day Two if it means Darkness blows his wad.

Dizzy
01-08-2012, 07:56 AM
Do you have any ideas on how we might make it work, or are you going to be a negative nancy and simply let the mafia win because of their superior position?

- Eddie

Sheesh. I never even said anything to effect of letting the mafia win.

breakman
01-08-2012, 09:10 AM
Now I may be just a simple robot pegasus, but I'm finding it difficult to follow exactly how this cypher stuff works. Which makes it even more difficult for me to trust it.

Eddie
01-08-2012, 09:37 AM
Now I may be just a simple robot pegasus, but I'm finding it difficult to follow exactly how this cypher stuff works. Which makes it even more difficult for me to trust it.

It's complicated in execution, but essentially, let's say I wanted to write a code. I could take the message you just wrote and break it down into lines of 10 characters:

Now I may
be just a
simple rob
ot pegasus
, but I'm
finding it
difficult
to follow
exactly h
ow this cy
pher stuff
works. Wh
ich makes
it even mo
re difficu
lt for me
to trust i
t.


I could then assign every character a number based on its position in the post. For example, "N" = 1, "o" = 2, "w" = 3, " " = 4, "I" = 5, etc.

So let's say I wanted to encode a message with this (keep in mind that no one would know what post it would be in until I told them). It could be pretty simple, and that should be all you need. Let's say I give out this code:

(11)(87)(150)(12)(43)(159)(104)(165)(09)

finding the appropriate numbers to each letter should yield the word "blueberry."

As long as I only tell Pinkie Pie the "cypher" (i.e. which post or even paragraph to use) it should make it extremely difficult for any mafioso to "crack". I could even do something sinister like give out this code:

(12)(86)(151)(13)(44)(160)(105)(166)(10)

Which is the same as the above, except adding one to each of the numbers. The solution would therefore be to subtract one and then solve as normal for the particular post. Other options could be "deleting" spaces and stuff, or even removing particular letters. As long as the person on the other end is confident that the results aren't "made up" they should be able with near 100% certainty know who they are talking to.

Is it complicated? Sure. But as long as I'm careful I should be able to make eight of these before night. Heck, I could even post the codes in the thread, and then simply hand Pinkie Pie (once confirmed) the solution.

- Eddie

breakman
01-08-2012, 10:01 AM
Heck, I could even post the codes in the thread, and then simply hand Pinkie Pie (once confirmed) the solution.

- Eddie

As opposed to having each player contacted by Pinkie Pie post the next code in the thread, as you originally proposed? That gets rid of my main concern then, which was that each day we would be pointing out to the Avatars one player who is not Pinkie Pie.

I still don't like that this relies on you being trustworthy, and on you being confident that the player who contacts you in the first place actually is Pinkie Pie, but I guess the only thing that matters now is whether or not Pinkie Pie likes your plan.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 10:16 AM
method

Now that we know how Eddie intends to generate his ciphers, do we really need Pinkie Pie to target him? In theory, Pinkie should be able to pick a target s/he trusts, and the target could generate the ciphers on his/her own. Yes?

Because that's the big hole in the plan: why trust you, Eddie?

botticus
01-08-2012, 10:22 AM
So how does Pinkie Pie get confirmed without either dying, outing herself (as either Pinkie Pie or Madness) or being investigated and reported on, which would out two of the Mane 6?

And what do we do with the list of people that she contacted once she is confirmed?

breakman, Pinkie Pie (or Madness) could presumably also "contact" themselves one night to avoid contributing to a shrinking list of possible identities.

I still haven't seen an answer to my question, Eddie. What happens when both Pinkie Pie and Madness contact you tonight? Do you make a judgement call and only give the ciphers to one? Or do you give them to both and render the exercise pointless?

I assume the worst case would be only Madness contacts Eddie tonight, because Pinkie Pie thinks this is bollocks. But I don't really know what the repercussions of that would be with all my previously stated confusion over the intent of this.

Mogri
01-08-2012, 10:45 AM
If I were the investigator, I'd investigate.
If I were the roleblocker, I might or might not use my power.
If I were the doublevoter, I think I wouldn't use my power. Later in the game I'd be more likely to use it.
If I were the angel, I'd protect myself.
If I were the nighttalker, I'd keep my mouth shut at night.
If I were the voteblocker, I wouldn't use my power.

I'm 100% with you on the investigator, doublevoter, and angel. But you're saying the other half of the power roles shouldn't use their abilities? This raises some alarms to me. I indicate elevated suspicion of Yimothy. I also evince the same general distrust of Eddie as my fellows. I don't think there's anything wrong with his plan, aside from the fact that it depends so highly on him as linchpin. (Or should I say "lynchpin"? Ohohoho.)

Torgo
01-08-2012, 10:52 AM
I'm really not sure how I feel about Eddie's idea. Taking it simply at face value, outing one of the Mane 6 simply for the sake of a confirmation just isn't a solid trade off, especially this early. That's not even taking into account the multiple ways the Avatars can punk us with it.

elementalpenguin
01-08-2012, 10:57 AM
Alright, let's get down to business.

Personally, I'm all for Brick's plan. Originally I had the same concerns as Schep: that this plan gives the mafia a clear extra kill on someone by using The Avatar of Darkness's power. But as Brick pointed out, that would just give us an easy lynch the next day on a confirmed Avatar. The only way this would not work is if a townie broke the rule, for an upcoming absence or something of that nature. Thus, when the time comes for a judgment call, I'd like to say that going with the plan should definitely be mandatory, if that's not bending the rules about having to make a vote too much.

If we break it down, this is what we see:
Pros:
Neuters the Avatar of Mutiny completely
Makes using the Avatar of Darkness's power to votebomb a guaranteed Avatar lynch for town

Cons:
Guarantees the ability to votebomb one of us using Darkness

Since I see the tradeoff for Darkness as being an equal, if not in town's favor, trade, and shutting down Mutiny as a definite gain, I'm wholly in favor of the 24-hour vote plan as long as everyone agrees not to break it for any reason. I've probably missed a lot of pros and cons in this little breakdown, but these are the ones I see immediately.

Regarding Eddie's plan... at the moment I'm firmly in the "no" camp. It's too early in the game to trust someone with a plan that could effectively remove one of our six "lives." The only benefit to that would be that we could lynch Eddie if he used this ability to kill Pinkie Pie, but because the Avatar of Lies is a known entity, we couldn't even do that. So no, it's way too early in the game to trust someone we don't know we can trust with that much power.

schep
01-08-2012, 10:58 AM
In theory, Pinkie should be able to pick a target s/he trusts, and the target could generate the ciphers on his/her own. Yes? Because that's the big hole in the plan: why trust you, Eddie?

If I understand the deal right, the cyphers must be generated and publicly posted as "puzzles" without "solutions" before the end of Day 1. Then it's the "solutions" which get passed around in night time parties.

Also, Pinkie Pie should be able to verify all the "solutions" are good as soon as she gets them. So no trust of Eddie is involved. If somebody else also wants to make cyphers and invite Pinkie Pie to receive the codes, I see no harm in that. (Just remember it might be Madness you're talking to.)

I still think anyone who makes cyphers should make two separate lists each long enough for the whole game, in case two ponies bite.

While I'm not sure how these parties can help us catch the Avatars, I also don't think they necessarily risk exposing Pinkie Pie. Note that the invited ponies don't even know the name of the party's host, unless they choose to say it.

Dizzy
01-08-2012, 11:24 AM
As much as I don't like Eddie's coded communication idea, I see no reason to stop him from carrying it out if he wishes. I just won't be very trusting of the results he yields and won't be surprised if they come out awful.

Maybe it will be useful in the long run, maybe it won't.

Umby
01-08-2012, 12:00 PM
I'd personally rather Pinky Pie make her own call on how to best use her power. Putting out our method in the open will not let us able to discern Pinky Pie from the Avatar of Madness, and therefore the information we get from it will be controversial and hard to make anything useful from.

I feel like one of the low posters who have made only an agreement or disagreement (most likely agreement) could be part of the mafia.

Egarwaen
01-08-2012, 12:25 PM
If I were Twilight Sparkle, I'd investigate people I thought were suspicious. I might do that thing that schep (was it schep?) did last game and make "If I'm TS, I investigated X and they were clean/dirty" posts, if other people were doing it too.

This kind of post could be a really bad idea, given the Avatar of Lies.

I think, in general, town power roles in this game are going to be most effective if they each do their own thing and don't follow any kind of public strategy, and thus the Avatars don't know what their strategy is. They absolutely cannot risk revealing themselves, but Twilight and maybe Pinkie can gather useful information and use it to improve their basic play. Though Pinkie can gather almost as much by doing nothing.

I also don't think the "no votes until the last 24 hours" plan is worthwhile. Pseudo votes are well and good, but they lack the "strength" of an actual vote, which means the Avatars have much less incentive to not "accuse" each other. There's also a huge element of error, in that I can see it being really easy to "forget" to real-vote. Repeatedly. That's how Heron sailed through an entire game un-noticed, remember, and this just makes it easier. It's a lot of hoop to jump through to neuter a power that can be applied at most once during the entire game. Particularly a power that gives us almost as much info as it hides, as we get to see who switches their vote to whom, and how people act towards the former leader the next day.

It might have more value as a strategy towards the end of the game, if things get down as far as they did during Problem Sleuth Mafia, but this early? No way.

So as to register my discontent with this plan most effectively, I accuse Dizzy.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 12:27 PM
I'm-a vote for Egarwaen.

Reason should be obvious.

Umby
01-08-2012, 12:49 PM
I guess once I think about it, my only concern with the plan is that if the Avatars all keep their power for the last day, then we are screwed once one person votes (although, at the same time, we would know that person is probably mafia). Edwargen has some good points, and I don't think he's mafia for trying to stand out against Brickroad.

I also agree with the "strength" of a real vote being more telling than a pseudo-vote. Mafia is all about information, and we will lack that information in the first two-thirds of a mafia day. It will be easier for the Avatars to hide. I cannot truly make a decision between the two pros and cons of the plan now, and I posit this question to be answered:

Should we play this game to account for the Avatar's powers but limit our information? Or should we play the game we always have and react to the powers as they happen?

breakman
01-08-2012, 01:05 PM
I don't think Brickroad's plan really needs full participation. The important thing is that everyone remains aware that an early vote risks being affected by Mutiny. If anyone wants to disregard that risk, that's on them.

It should, perhaps, be pointed out that while Mutiny could activate their power today if it suited them, Darkness cannot. So, for today at least, there's no real risk in waiting the 48 hours before voting.

Egarwaen
01-08-2012, 01:17 PM
I don't think Brickroad's plan really needs full participation. The important thing is that everyone remains aware that an early vote risks being affected by Mutiny. If anyone wants to disregard that risk, that's on them.

Mutiny is a once-a-game power that provides almost as much information to the town as the lynch it locks out. Brick's plan will, guaranteed, let Heron-type play go undetected.

It's a solid plan... Once the game is down to a small fraction of the starting numbers. Before then, it's a really dumb idea.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 01:18 PM
I also agree with the "strength" of a real vote being more telling than a pseudo-vote. Mafia is all about information, and we will lack that information in the first two-thirds of a mafia day.

This is blatantly untrue. The fact that you and Egar both have to put "strength" in scare quotes is quite telling.

In the first 48 hours of daylight, a green vote is identical to a bold one. They serve the same exact purpose. All the same information is there. All the same discussion can happen. People who would normally look suspicious for abstaining will still look suspicious. Folks who look guilty for throwing votes out as distraction or misdirection will still do so. You can skim through the thread right now and do a green vote tally if you want to get an idea of who suspects who, exactly like with real votes.

Egar's argument hinges on the idea that people will forget to come back and vote. I don't buy it. I will personally post huge, bold, 72-point reminders on the third day if need be. If the townies in this game are so apathetic they can't be bothered to turn a green vote into an official one when the time is right, we deserve to lose. (Just like they lost the last time the town was apathetic. And the time before that. And the time before that...)

Should we play this game to account for the Avatar's powers but limit our information? Or should we play the game we always have and react to the powers as they happen?

This is a false dilemma. There's no evidence that neutering Mutiny limits our information at all.

elementalpenguin
01-08-2012, 01:18 PM
Egarwaen, I think I'm a bit confused; you gave a lot of reasons about why you didn't agree with the 24 hour plan, and then said you were voting for Dizzy?

Yeah Brick's idea seems sturdy. I can't figure out a way to subvert the powers of the other Avatars.

This is the only post Dizzy has made the entire game regarding Brick's plan. The two just don't seem to correlate to me. Mind explaining?

Umby
01-08-2012, 01:23 PM
This is a false dilemma. There's no evidence that neutering Mutiny limits our information at all.

That's untrue.

In the first 48 hours of daylight, a green vote is identical to a bold one. They serve the same exact purpose.

But that's the thing. They aren't. Those votes don't lynch anyone. An Avatar could easily vote for someone and look rather unsuspicious, and then change their vote later. In any case, a "green vote" will never be the same as a real vote, no matter how much town participation we get.

Is this worth neutering Mutiny? I don't actually think so, now that I have considered the options.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 01:23 PM
Brick's plan will, guaranteed, let Heron-type play go undetected.

Explain how. You have asserted that green votes lack the "strength" of real votes, but you haven't backed it up with anything.

As far as I can tell, the only functional differences are:

1) poetfox won't count the green votes in her vote tallies (if indeed she intends to do them),
2) Mutiny can't scramble green votes, and
3) players have to make sure their real vote is cast before the end of the third day.

Which of these three areas provide a place for avatars to hide, where they otherwise couldn't?

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 01:30 PM
But that's the thing. They aren't. Those votes don't lynch anyone.

Neither does a regular vote, the first 71 hours and 59 minutes of the game day.

An Avatar could easily vote for someone and look rather unsuspicious, and then change their vote later.

They can do this with regular votes too! (And have! In every single game!) You can make a thousand votes during the day; the only one that actually counts is the one that's on the board when the GM calls night.

In any case, a "green vote" will never be the same as a real vote, no matter how much town participation we get.

That's correct. There are three key differences, outlined in my reply to Egarwaen above.

Is this worth neutering Mutiny?

Yes. YES. Ten thousand times YES.

It is always always worth eliminating power roles from the mafia, if possible. This ruleset provides us a way to do that without getting a lucky lynch or waiting for Twilight to tell us who to kill.

Umby
01-08-2012, 01:30 PM
[QUOTE=Brickroad;1224595
1) poetfox won't count the green votes in her vote tallies (if indeed she intends to do them),
2) Mutiny can't scramble green votes, and
3) players have to make sure their real vote is cast before the end of the third day.

Which of these three areas provide a place for avatars to hide, where they otherwise couldn't?[/QUOTE]

I think 1 is a great place to hide. Avatars can put in green votes without fearing repercussions of getting one of their own's heads chopped off or banished or whatever the flavor exactly is this time around. It's too easy for our votes to be manipulated even further than just the normal voting. I think that your plan is just too much of an overreaction to a one-shot Avatar power, and it's just not worth limiting the town's ability to discern Avatars.

However, I do not think you are mafia. This is a relatively good plan that just overreacts to trying to limit the Avatars powers. Is there a way to limit their power without neutering our own ability to find Avatars?

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 01:37 PM
I think 1 is a great place to hide.

You're either dumb, naive, or simply forgetting your history. Many (if not most) of our vote tallies through the ages have been provided by players trying to keep the discussion straight. That's the whole point of making the votes green; when players go back to double-check who voted for who, and when, the votes will be easy to spot.

Are you suggesting the town won't do this? Even though they've done it in practically every game?

Avatars can put in green votes without fearing repercussions of getting one of their own's heads chopped off or banished or whatever the flavor exactly is this time around. It's too easy for our votes to be manipulated even further than just the normal voting.

Explain how. In detail, please.

I think that your plan is just too much of an overreaction to a one-shot Avatar power, and it's just not worth limiting the town's ability to discern Avatars.

Except it doesn't limit our ability to discern avatars at all, whatsoever, by any stretch of the imagination. That was a fabrication on Egarwaen's part that you seem to have swallowed whole, for some reason.

Is there a way to limit their power without neutering our own ability to find Avatars?

Second time I've answered this question for you now: we don't have to worry about it. Green votes don't inhibit our information-gathering whatsoever.

Umby
01-08-2012, 01:46 PM
I'm merely scared that I may be so busy that I might not be able to show up in the last twenty-four hours of the day to vote. That's part of it. However, I'm willing to give the system a try, I still have my concerns.

With green votes, however, they lack the bite of a true vote. If, say, Yimothy was an avatar and so was dtsund, it would be easy for dtsund to just put a vote on him (let's say this was a serious vote) and then decide against putting a true vote on him later. It would vindicate him in our eyes because "Yimothy is very suspicious, good catch dtsund" but he could easily jump on the nearest bandwagon when it came to the last 24 hours. Really, we just need to be wary that this could be a situation and make sure that this green-vote business won't distract us from the true information. This is why I was initially with Brickroad, but I wanted to fully explore the possibilities of the plan without just accepting without thinking.

I still somewhat agree with Edwargen, but this is me just being paranoid.

Egarwaen
01-08-2012, 01:50 PM
Egarwaen, I think I'm a bit confused; you gave a lot of reasons about why you didn't agree with the 24 hour plan, and then said you were voting for Dizzy?

This is the only post Dizzy has made the entire game regarding Brick's plan. The two just don't seem to correlate to me. Mind explaining?

Not at all. I simply don't like Dizzy, and that was good enough reason for me to vote for him when demonstrating my dislike of Brick's plans.

Egar's argument hinges on the idea that people will forget to come back and vote. I don't buy it. I will personally post huge, bold, 72-point reminders on the third day if need be. If the townies in this game are so apathetic they can't be bothered to turn a green vote into an official one when the time is right, we deserve to lose.

Again, the biggest risk is Heron-type flying under the radar. Or simply under-participating. When no-one is showing up in poet's end-of-day vote tallies, that's really damn likely. And yeah, I do think that less-engaged players will occasionally miss turning their pseudo votes into real actual votes, no matter what you do.

Furthermore, pseudo votes require the town to do all the work of vote-tracking. Real votes unload a lot of that on the GM... Who, incidentally, we know we can trust. This gives the Avatars an obvious in to influence the town's viewpoint.

Sure, we'd be better off if everyone was as engaged with the game as you. But they aren't. And a strategy that further disadvantages the town due to that is a bad strategy....


However, I do not think you are mafia. This is a relatively good plan that just overreacts to trying to limit the Avatars powers. Is there a way to limit their power without neutering our own ability to find Avatars?

... Right up until we near the end of the game. Switching to Brick's strategy once player numbers drop is, I think, wise.

Lion Yamato
01-08-2012, 01:59 PM
The reason that I liked Brickroad's plan was because it was simple, effective, neutered an Avatar, and its only downside (the last minute vote on an shortened day) would immediately out whoever tried it for a lynch.

Eddie's plan, from what I can gather, is pretty much the exact opposite. Convoluted, easily manipulated by Avatars, and doesn't really give much of a payout. The central point of "what happens when both Pinkie Pie and Madness contact Eddie" that Nich brought up is a huge problem. Well, unless Eddie is Madness, in which case that's no real problem for him at all.

While I'm wondering if we're putting an overabundance of importance on the powers of Madness and Pinkie Pie, if we're really concerned about their impact on the game, I think the easiest way to overcome that is simply be a horrible party guest. By that I mean just don't talk to them if they contact you.

Listen to what they have to say, take it with the hugest grain of salt you can find (a saltlick, perhaps? Yeah, sorry...), and go on with the game. Never reveal any info or give any indication that you believe or agree with them. It's not a perfect plan or anything, but it will minimize the effect Madness can have while still allowing Pinkie Pie to use her power as she sees fit.

Eddie
01-08-2012, 02:06 PM
Eddie's plan, from what I can gather, is pretty much the exact opposite. Convoluted, easily manipulated by Avatars, and doesn't really give much of a payout. The central point of "what happens when both Pinkie Pie and Madness contact Eddie" that Nich brought up is a huge problem. Well, unless Eddie is Madness, in which case that's no real problem for him at all.

I have an idea on how to tell the two apart, but I'd welcome suggestions.

Am I suggesting that the town gamble on me? Absolutely. I'd like to hear what Poetfox has to say about role PMs, because depending it might make my case a bit stronger, but I think I've got something solid to work with regardless.

- Eddie

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 02:09 PM
If you guys seriously think we won't notice people putting down green votes early on, but not changing them to real votes later, you are simply being naive. That kind of behavior is going to send shrill warning klaxons off. It's exactly the same as someone (say, Yimothy*) putting an early vote on his avatar teammate (say, dtsund*) and then retracting it before the end of day three with no explanation.

If that kind of behavior slips past us, we deserve to lose. What I am trying to drill into your thick skulls is, I don't think it will. Under-the-radar players are still going to be tricky to deal with, as they always are. On this point, Egarwaen and I no doubt agree.

But green votes weren't designed to handle under-the-radar players. They were designed to make sure Mutiny can't ever use his/her power.

*I chose these names because Umby did (arbitrarily?).

Again, the biggest risk is Heron-type flying under the radar. Or simply under-participating.

This is a risk and a burden no matter what plans we make. If we had to discard every idea because someone might not play along, we'd literally have to discard every idea.

When no-one is showing up in poet's end-of-day vote tallies, that's really damn likely.

This is a bold assertion, considering how many accurate and self-policing vote tallies have been posted by players over the years. I cannot remember how many times I've seen a player correct another player's vote count. (Or even the GM's!)

Suffice it to say, any avatar that thinks he can get away with skewing the data by conveniently miscounting green votes is really reaching for low-hanging fruit. Not only is it very likely to be caught and corrected, but missing a vote or two is such an innocuous event that it won't even look suspicious on them. (Exactly like regular vote counts.)

Furthermore, pseudo votes require the town to do all the work of vote-tracking.

And it's work that the town cheerfully takes upon itself in every single game.

Sure, we'd be better off if everyone was as engaged with the game as you. But they aren't.

So we should just let apathetic players drag the town down like they have so often in the past? sounds great bro sign me the feck up

Let's put our cards on the table. Of the current player list, who specifically do you think is so apathetic and uncooperative that they won't bother to sign in towards the end of the game day and make sure they have a vote on the table? Who are you so scared of?

Raven
01-08-2012, 02:13 PM
Again, the biggest risk is Heron-type flying under the radar. Or simply under-participating. When no-one is showing up in poet's end-of-day vote tallies, that's really damn likely. And yeah, I do think that less-engaged players will occasionally miss turning their pseudo votes into real actual votes, no matter what you do.

Furthermore, pseudo votes require the town to do all the work of vote-tracking. Real votes unload a lot of that on the GM... Who, incidentally, we know we can trust. This gives the Avatars an obvious in to influence the town's viewpoint.


Heron happened in M15, right? When everyone were so incredibly distracted by item purchases and forgot about catch-the-Mafia part? I don't see how such a thing like someone repeatedly failed to make a vote or displayed a suspicious voting pattern can go completely unnoticed in this particular game. Maybe I'm naive, but I have faith that most of the ponies will, you know, pay attention to that.

We could have an unofficial vote-counter to help ease thing up (maybe Brick, since he's one who came up with the plan and all), if it is really so bothersome for everyone to count the green-votes manually. Even if he/she's not as untrustworthy as the GM, it's not like it's the hardest thing to do to check if he/she counts right.


Not at all. I simply don't like Dizzy


Why? Not that I necessarily disagree, but I still want you to elaborate.

schep
01-08-2012, 02:15 PM
We might as well try something like Eddie's cipher idea. But I think I have a variant that needs less (human) work to encode and decode.

I have selected a bunch of "passphrases", each containing three or four English words. Later in this post, I list the MD5 checksums for those phrases.

As an example, the phrase "untouched denominated antenna" has checksum cac79348b774ea5d81428b82397f6db0. You can check this yourself in many ways. http://www.adamek.biz/md5-generator.php and http://www.miraclesalad.com/webtools/md5.php look like reasonable tools you can use for your browser. If you have a Unix prompt, you can probably type:
echo -n "untouched denominated antenna" | md5sum
and see the checksum. (The -n tells echo NOT to add a newline character.)

When entering a passphrase into the MD5 algorithm:

There is no punctuation, only letters a-z, A-Z, and space.
There is a single space (ASCII 32) character between each word, but not at the beginning or end. There are no other whitespace characters.
Words are usually all lowercase, but follow the ordinary rules for proper nouns.


If I go to any party tonight, the host will receive all twelve passphrases for one of the two lists. That pony should verify that the passphrases produce the claimed checksums, and may then use them any way they want. (Also, as long as they all work, you don't need to trust me for these codes to be useful to you.) The suggested use is to give one passphrase to each party invitee on following night. It won't prove you're Pinkie Pie, but it can prove that you're the same pony who hosted a previous party.

List Alpha:

71a395d8b154497b99fe21af192377a1
e3e945a3efc39440da979a15baaba7c4
aaf5705fd83f44d8d2cea60122caa8f0
4ad125153c46cece7fc0aaad9aa91a96
005787e41c25db330d5257fca0047e08
ebad237f709ec88c30e9e293327d7bf5
8b779438fbd4001a409a1020f60d37e0
36d88ea185d964fcfa6da71350d5fb4d
c11352bff82e70dc61b77b5bf5dae40b
fa05ab707efaf1754dfb11659b9edad6
437de066fb10767fa7431482d91677bf
dd6941edfe137931ea51784bc71c69c6


List Beta:

9004e13df1f40554e8aa6797325968b7
132a064d633c3d17928dc1744c725cd9
52864db4a22e162d6140510360c2436a
b536ab066d1be8323085d0ea8cd39a52
6a8f377ed72d778623546d11dd0b434b
5cadbb472e2bac7552923a84396f8c8a
2c9e2945b25aa5962771f5ba29626984
9dc198ad6529cf90a40bb6fd339869a4
c9d3cf32f750243054f44a8f26670017
5a28923bca4d6ff4db82f98468455dc8
64712d5cd90db578cd4b9ac5b26b7fc9
e2b2912984f8e1d172d041a714ebafd9


If anybody else also wants to post some checksums like these or ciphers of any variety, that's great. More choices for Pinkie Pie to use or ignore, as she likes. The one problem with this scheme is that if Pinkie Pie parties with me tonight, it becomes a bit less useful to talk to me on a later crucial night, because the town will suspect I might say I partied when I didn't get any invitation. But likewise for Eddie or any other cipher creator.

(Even Pinkie Pie could create some checksums, talk to nobody tonight, claim tomorrow that a pony contacted her, and then use her own codes for future nights. But probably only if enough ponies start doing this that not offering any looks slightly suspicious for the Mane.)

Or if everyone ignores this, that's fine too. I didn't spend that long making these.

Solitayre
01-08-2012, 02:38 PM
I'm starting to think this "fake voting" plan is really silly and is going to cause a lot of problems. Brick, are you voting for Egarwaen because you think he's guilty, or just because he voted and you're trying to intimidate him into following your plan or else? Think about this.

I don't see myself protecting anyone else from the lynch because I wouldn't have any more information than the rest of the town. If everyone else wants the lynch, why should I think myself more right?

No no no no no no no no no.

If you are town and you have a power, you use that power however you see fit. You do not let the town dictate how you use that power. Some of the people in that town are liars who are trying to mislead you. They'll just love it if you don't use your power.

You know who you can trust? Yourself. You are not trying to mislead yourself. Anyone else in the town could be. Last game, McClain was the vigilante, and he had half the mafia dead to rights by day 3, but he listened to Nich, a mafia, and couldn't pull the trigger. This is exactly what Nich was hoping would happen. If McClain had followed his heart, the game would have been over.

You know you are town, and there is one person you can trust, completely. That is yourself. Anyone else could be messing with you.

If you have a power and you are suspicious of someone, pull the trigger! You are being derelict in your duty otherwise.

As for Eddie's weird cypher plan, I've already said I don't want anyone dictating how anyone else uses their power.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 02:54 PM
I'm starting to think this "fake voting" plan is really silly and is going to cause a lot of problems. Brick, are you voting for Egarwaen because you think he's guilty, or just because he voted and you're trying to intimidate him into following your plan or else? Think about this.

I think he's guilty because every reason he's given for not wanting to follow the plan is either completely weaksauce or utterly contradicted by TT Mafia history.

It's a good plan. It prevents one of the avatars from ever using his power. So far as I can tell, it's the only avatar we can totally castrate like that. We should.

I am going to defend this idea tooth and nail until someone shows me how it's flawed. Until I see some solid evidence that I've overlooked something, I refuse to give Egarwaen one single inch.

If he had a strong argument, I could live with him. But he doesn't. We are capable of counting green votes, we are capable of keeping on top of our day three discussion, we are capable of catching sketchy behavior.

I like these words:

You know who you can trust? Yourself. You are not trying to mislead yourself. Anyone else in the town could be.

I fervently believe that if there really was a fatal error in the green vote plan, Egarwaen would be able to point it out. It's possible he's just dense, but it's also possible he's an avatar trying to get me to back off of a good strategy.

Until I see some dick-hard evidence of the former, I'm going to assume the latter. This is not a "you disagree with me therefore you must die" situation. He has said things that are blatantly and provably false to try and shoot down green votes. I want to make damn sure those things do not go unchallenged.

Nodal
01-08-2012, 02:59 PM
No to all of the checksum plans. They have no benefit unless we can decide we trust a single person. Maybe we'll get a confirmed innocent later, but not now. And for some reason I just specifically distrust Eddie. Dude seems shady as hell.

Regarding Egarwaen: Quickly, why do you think that the plan will work better later on? When would you think a good time to use it would be? Because interest in the game tends to taper off rather than pick up later on, you know. I don't like the plan because I didn't like that Brick was handing out excuses to people. But I don't have to hand so excuses. But what's up with these people jumping on the intellectual bandwagon of finding it a good plan for the future? In fact, I find your reasoning faulty enough that I intend to vote for Egarwaen. Convince me why I shouldn't.

Dizzy
01-08-2012, 03:26 PM
Should I include them

Yes.

If so, should they get a special notation as actual votes?

Yes.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 03:27 PM
Red is good. I just picked green because it's higher up on the color menu.

Also, I say we just count them all together. The point of vote tallies is to show who is suspicious of who, right? Why complicate things?

Also also, just to prove corrections are easy and forthcoming, Yimothy currently has one vote against and Egar has two. =)

Raven
01-08-2012, 03:38 PM
Another correction: Mogri green-voted for Yimothy on this one (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1224501&postcount=105).

Yup, I think red's better and I agree with the notation.

botticus
01-08-2012, 03:44 PM
One, I would prefer for intentions to be cast in red rather than green. It helps them stand out more so I don't miss any non-bolded stuff. Also, it's a scientifically proven fact that red is a "stronger" color than green, if that helps ease Umby's mind.



Assuming poetfox doesn't neuter this whole plan by taking intentions to vote as votes (no accusation format was provided and bolding was only mentioned as a suggestion in the OP), I'd at least request everyone put these pseudo-votes on a separate line. I did a count after two-plus pages of posts and already managed to miss one out of the handful of votes present at the time (Nich's at the end of a post).

Merus
01-08-2012, 03:53 PM
Should we play this game to account for the Avatar's powers but limit our information? Or should we play the game we always have and react to the powers as they happen?

Well, the problem is that we lose if the Mane 6 die. Townies can't squeak out a win. So it depends entirely on whether playing the game as you always have usually results in all of the power roles dying before the mafia do. If it usually doesn't, then we should be bold, because we need information more than

There is always the chance that some of the Avatars are incompetent.

Also I intend to accuse Egarwaen, especially because we can't afford to be still arguing about this plan when it starts becoming relevant. None of his objections make much sense.

(I'm sort of not worried about Eddie because I see an overcomplicated plan and think 'yep, Eddie'. Sort of wondering where Destil's gotten to, though.)

poetfox
01-08-2012, 03:59 PM
Three young friends gathered behind the schoolhouse, making a plan.

“And you haven’t seen them all day?” Scootaloo asked.

“No! My sister left this morning, saying she’d be right back, but I haven’t seen her since,” said Sweetie Belle.

“Applejack did the same. Ah don’t know where she is,” added Applebloom. “It’s not like her to just disappear!”

“Especially with these evil spirits around.” Scootaloo nodded. “Think it’s related?”

“It has to be!” said Sweetie Belle.

“They might need our help!” said Applebloom.

“We could be Cutie Mark Crusader Detectives!” grinned Sweetie Belle.

“Or Cutie Mark Crusader Bounty Hunters!” added Scootaloo excitedly.

“Then what are we waitin’ for!” declared Applebloom. “Let’s go…”

“What do you three think you’re doing?”

Three young heads drooped, before turning to face their teacher.

“Nothin’, Miss Cheerilee, we were just…” said Applebloom.

“Didn’t you all hear about the Avatars? It is much too dangerous to go out there alone. Besides, weren’t you supposed to stay around front where I could see you all during recess?” Cheerilee gave them all a stern expression.

“Yes, Miss Cheerilee…” the Cutie Mark Crusaders said in unison.

“Back inside.”

The Cutie Mark Crusaders, defeated for the moment, walked back inside. Their teacher looked at the nearby scenery suspiciously before following. She couldn’t let anything happen to her students. Not on her watch.


Vote Tally

Yimothy
dtsund

Dizzy
Egarwaen

There is approximately 48 hours and 30 minutes remaining in the day. Good luck, my little ponies.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 04:08 PM
Well I guess that answers that question.

Now that Egarwaen's taken care of, back to Yimothy. Yimmers, you alluded to the "optimal strategy" of the Mane Six being different from "what you would do". So my next question is, if you were a powered townie, why wouldn't you execute the optimal strategy, as you understand it? Why are the two things different?

Egarwaen
01-08-2012, 04:19 PM
It's a good plan. It prevents one of the avatars from ever using his power. So far as I can tell, it's the only avatar we can totally castrate like that. We should.

Okay, you want to talk about TT Mafia History? You remember M15? You remember how Brick had the entire town so tied up in knots trying to execute stupid bidding plans that we didn't notice that a member of the mafia didn't cast a single vote for most of the game? Yeah, this is more of that. It increases the chances that we're not going to notice that someone hasn't been casting votes, because we're 100% reliant on players to tally and track pseudovotes. And some of those players are, as Solitayre points out, trying to trick and mislead us. The very first "unofficial vote count" under this scheme, when almost nothing's been happening, has a mistake in it. Relying on player pseudovote tracking simply gives the Mafia a powerful weapon, the ability to create confusion VIA carefully-manipulated "vote tracking", in exchange for taking away a worthless power.

And yes, Mutiny's power is almost worthless. They can use their power once per game. This is useful only towards the end of the game, when the mafia needs only one more day to win, as happened in M16. To see why this is the case, let's look at what happens if Mutiny uses their power early in the game. I'm going to presume that the town will always auto-lynch whomever Mutiny denied them, as it reduces the effectiveness of the power the most.

1) An Avatar is on the chopping block and isn't getting any traction. Mutiny uses their power, and buys that Avatar another day of life. But they die the very next day anyway, and someone else gets lynched after 24 hours of discussion.

2) A townie is on the chopping block and isn't getting any traction. Mutiny uses their power to finger the townie as dirty. The townie gets auto-lynched the next day, and someone else gets lynched after 24 hours of discussion. This is an identical outcome to Mutiny doing nothing at all.

3) An Avatar is on the chopping block and is talking their way out of it. Mutiny has no incentive to use their power in this situation as, if they do, the Avatar will get auto-lynched the next day. Mutiny's power is irrelevant.

4) A townie is on the chopping block and is talking their way out of it. Due to the auto-lynch assumption, this is identical to case #2 - the mafia gains nothing.

Regarding Egarwaen: Quickly, why do you think that the plan will work better later on? When would you think a good time to use it would be?

As you note, interest tends to taper off in the late game. This means there's less noise, making tracking pseudovotes - and spotting people making "mistakes" in pseudovote tracking - much, much easier. So the biggest weakness of pseudovoting is minimized.

Mutiny's power only rises above terrible in the late game, when it can buy the Mafia an extra day to finish off the last couple members of the Mane 6 from a small target selection. Presuming completely random murder, when the game's down to 8 people, there'll probably be 2 of the Mane 6, 2 Avatars, and ~4 townies. At that point, even with the auto-lynch assumption, buying an extra day of life for the Avatars can make the difference between victory and defeat.

I predict that this plan will suppress voting activity, create lots of confusion around vote counts, exacerbate the problem of low-activity players, and do absolutely nothing to "neuter" the Avatars in any meaningful way. But I'm done talking about it; further argument from me will just be worthless noise. I'll go along with it if most of the town does, and ignore it otherwise.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 04:43 PM
Oh ho ho, now Egar's getting angry with me. Okay!

Okay, you want to talk about TT Mafia History? You remember M15? You remember how Brick had the entire town so tied up in knots trying to execute stupid bidding plans that we didn't notice that a member of the mafia didn't cast a single vote for most of the game?

Correction: it was a simple bidding plan that some players chose not to acknowledge, and which I admitted (after some discussion) was sub-optimal. It had nothing to do with Heron at all.

I recall several people catching Heron's no-vote status, and Heron apologizing (read: making excuses) for it. That we didn't pull the trigger on him was our bad, but it had nothing to do with any bidding strategies.

I also seem to recall you having something to say about being tired of all the argument-by-metagame that's been going on lately. Funny that your own argument has come down to relying on metagame, now that you're backed into a corner.

It increases the chances that we're not going to notice that someone hasn't been casting votes, because we're 100% reliant on players to tally and track pseudovotes.

I think this argument has been thoroughly demolished at this point. We've got an ironclad way to count red votes which simultaneously keeps track of which players didn't follow through with bold votes on the last day. This sytem (like all voting records) can be double-checked by any pony at any time.

And some of those players are, as Solitayre points out, trying to trick and mislead us.

Yup. I think you're one of them.

The very first "unofficial vote count" under this scheme, when almost nothing's been happening, has a mistake in it.

Which was immediately corrected, and then followed up by tightening up the procedure for pseudovotes so they're easier to see. (Color change to higher-contrast red.)

Relying on player pseudovote tracking simply gives the Mafia a powerful weapon, the ability to create confusion VIA carefully-manipulated "vote tracking", in exchange for taking away a worthless power.

I would love to see them try. I seriously would. In the grand scale of mafia strategies, "purposely miscounting the votes and hoping nobody catches it" is right there at the ass-bottom of the pile.

Seriously, Mafia. If this is your plan to confuse us? I say bring it the fuck on.

And yes, Mutiny's power is almost worthless.

Yes, but "some players are trying to trick and mislead us". You saying the power is worthless doesn't make it so, but boy howdy you sure are trying to convince us of it!

But I'm a sporting chap, so I'll address your concerns one at a time:

1) An Avatar is on the chopping block and isn't getting any traction. Mutiny uses their power, and buys that Avatar another day of life. But they die the very next day anyway, and someone else gets lynched after 24 hours of discussion.

If I have the choice between an avatar dying on Day X-1 and Day X, I'll take Day X-1 thanks. I want to prevent the avatars from being able to do this.

2) A townie is on the chopping block and isn't getting any traction. Mutiny uses their power to finger the townie as dirty. The townie gets auto-lynched the next day, and someone else gets lynched after 24 hours of discussion. This is an identical outcome to Mutiny doing nothing at all.

An excellent move if it looks like we're about to lynch a townie on our second-to-last day, don't you agree? I want to prevent the avatars from being able to do this.

3) An Avatar is on the chopping block and is talking their way out of it. Mutiny has no incentive to use their power in this situation as, if they do, the Avatar will get auto-lynched the next day. Mutiny's power is irrelevant.

Okay, I'll grant you that. Next should we have a discussion about whether Twilight should inspect the same pony four days in a row? Or whether Applejack should tie up a confirmed townie? People aren't stupid, they won't use their powers when it isn't beneficial.

If your argument is "I want Mutiny to stay in play on the outside chance he'll cock it up", well, I declare that weaksauce. Sitting around waiting for the mafia to make a mistake is a good way to lose the game.

4) A townie is on the chopping block and is talking their way out of it. Due to the auto-lynch assumption, this is identical to case #2 - the mafia gains nothing.

You're talking a lot about these "auto-lynch assumptions". Are these assumptions shared by the rest of the players? Have we all decided preemptively what we're going to do if/when someone is saved by the Mutiny power? Because I sure as hell don't remember that conversation.

Or is this just something you're throwing out to try and lend credence to an otherwise flimsy argument?

Presuming completely random murder, when the game's down to 8 people, there'll probably be 2 of the Mane 6, 2 Avatars, and ~4 townies. At that point, even with the auto-lynch assumption, buying an extra day of life for the Avatars can make the difference between victory and defeat.

"Presuming completely random number?" "Auto-lynch assumption?" You should write copy for corporate marketing brochures, dude. I bet you could synergize the workflow into positive reinforcement of everyone's challenge opportunities like a pro!

I predict that this plan will suppress voting activity, create lots of confusion around vote counts, exacerbate the problem of low-activity players, and do absolutely nothing to "neuter" the Avatars in any meaningful way.

If anyone's confused about how to red vote, I'm happy to help them out. And I disagree strongly that losing Mutiny means "absolutely nothing" to the avatars.

But I'm done talking about it; further argument from me will just be worthless noise.

So no different from all your arguments up to this point? oooh burrrrn

Merus
01-08-2012, 04:45 PM
Okay, you want to talk about TT Mafia History? You remember M15? You remember how Brick had the entire town so tied up in knots trying to execute stupid bidding plans that we didn't notice that a member of the mafia didn't cast a single vote for most of the game? Yeah, this is more of that. It increases the chances that we're not going to notice that someone hasn't been casting votes, because we're 100% reliant on players to tally and track pseudovotes. And some of those players are, as Solitayre points out, trying to trick and mislead us. The very first "unofficial vote count" under this scheme, when almost nothing's been happening, has a mistake in it. Relying on player pseudovote tracking simply gives the Mafia a powerful weapon, the ability to create confusion VIA carefully-manipulated "vote tracking", in exchange for taking away a worthless power.

Vote counting is not exactly an exact science as it is, plenty of GMs mess it up too. Usually what happens with vote counting is that enough players are paying attention to what a couple of people are doing that everyone's covered.

I know Brickroad touched you in bad places in M15 but that's what happens when Brickroad tries to be clever. This is simple, it's just like regular voting except the GM doesn't get to play.

Raven
01-08-2012, 05:13 PM
I had been waiting for everyone to post, and now apparently the only one who haven't is Karzac, who may still be in holiday. So, I guess I'm ready for my initial vote now.

I'm doubtful if Egar and/or Yimothy are Avatars, simply because they come out making fierce arguments and (in Egar's case) poking holes at a plan that is relatively accepted by the majority of players. Doesn't mean I agree with their arguments (for the record: I'm willing to go with Brick's plan at the moment, and I think Pinkie should just decide by herself on what to do), but it's still a good thing to have as much inputs as possible regarding any ideas or plan we're going to use. And, if they're Avatars, they must have known better than to being vocal/potentially controversial, which is the best thing to do if you want to attract early votes and increase your chance of being lynched on Day 1.

In fact, I'm more suspicious about ponies whose most relevant action so far was just nodded along and went "yep, yep, I agree with the plan, since [reasons already stated or alluded to by others]". Ponies who fit this criteria are dwolfe, Red Hedgehog, and Dizzy.

Of those three, I'm going to assume that the wolf and the hedgehog just haven't had anything more worthwhile to say at that moment. Dizzy, on the other hand, made me very uneasy; his posts are meaningless one-liners that smell fishy to me. Especially this one where he (unsuccessfully) tried to raise suspicion on Torgo. (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1224153&postcount=36)

I intend to accuse Dizzy.


I know Brickroad touched you in bad places

...I thought this is supposed to be a kid's show!?

Destil
01-08-2012, 05:13 PM
I'd suggest bolding the real votes, Nich. It's simple and consistent.

My own tally reads like this:

McClain? (0)
Brickroad[2]

Yimmothy (2)
dtsund[39]
Brickroad[64]
Mogri[105]

Eddie (1)
Nich[104]

Dizzy (1)
Egarwaen[111]

Egarwaen (3)
Brickroad[112]
Nodal[132]
Merus[139]

I'd also sort of point out that Egarwaen's pretty correct, fake votes are more important late in the game, because earlier in the game a scramble to protect an avatar is a really damning strategy that should come back to bite them in the ass. So I agree with him in principle and don't see what he's done as vote worthy. For people who have voted for him: is this because you want to enforce Brick's rule, or do you think he's mafia trying to establish a pattern to slip through a late game vote bomb. Or something else?

As far as Eddie's plan: establishing a series of ciphers will only, potentially, serve to allow us to separate the avatar of Madness and Pinkie Pie's conversations in the future but not identify them. So we'd end up with something like "Mail Scroll A" and "Mail Scroll B" as the identities of our two night chatters. In the very long run it may be worth the risk, but since for this to work some information needs to be public it could also help the Mafia narrow down Pinkie Pie, which is really bad in this game. Not that I'd go the full Yimmers and say Pinkie Pie shouldn't speak to anyone. Up to her. The plan is high risk-high reward, making it the sort of plan I, personally, would likely try. But we've all seen my record with night chatting...

Destil
01-08-2012, 05:17 PM
...I thought this is supposed to be a kid's show!?

The Brickroad Show is rated TV14 for strong language and mind-fucking. The Brickroad show is taped before a live forum audience and presented in high-definition where available. And not in high-definition where not available.

Raven
01-08-2012, 05:18 PM
Especially this one where he (unsuccessfully) tried to raise suspicion on Torgo. (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1224153&postcount=36)


Derp, sorry, wrong link. This one (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1224175&postcount=47).

Dizzy
01-08-2012, 05:19 PM
Especially this one where he (unsuccessfully) tried to raise suspicion on Torgo. (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1224153&postcount=36)

You cited the wrong post there.

Also, it's Day One. So, =P

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 05:24 PM
I know Brickroad touched you in bad places in M15 but that's what happens when Brickroad tries to be clever.

God damn but it's good to have you back, son. You sure you won't be needing this?

http://scibbe.com/stash/merusavatar.gif

Destil
01-08-2012, 05:41 PM
I already told him to put his face back on once, but he didn't listen.

Merus
01-08-2012, 05:45 PM
You sure you won't be needing this?

Pretty sure, yeah.

I do think Egarwaen's right in that Mutiny is a late-game power, but the problem is that Mutiny now knows we're shutting them down, so they'll probably fire it whenever they get an opportunity just so they get to use it. We need a complete solution to make sure we shut them out of the game. I think they'll also be trying to wangle a way to have their power still be useful, and I think that's what's behind Egarwaen's argument, because there's a lot of fearmongering there and discussion of what could happen if we're incompetent. If we are incompetent, we really don't need a 12-step plan to work out we're going to be outplayed.

Now, it's possible that Egarwaen's just a townie who's just wrong, but it is the first day and there aren't really a lot of good options yet. There's Dizzy, who is expressing a negative opinion about Torgo. I mean, we can always pressure him but of all the targets I wouldn't have picked Torgo. There's also Eddie, but my admittedly completely rusty read on him is as townie throwing stuff at the wall rather than mafia trying to trick us into an overcomplicated plan. I submit the question to the floor though because, as I said, I'm really rusty at this. I'd welcome other's thoughts, particularly people that are good at reading others.

Actually, who is good at reading others? I know Umby used to be good at it, and sometimes Nodal is.

Nodal
01-08-2012, 05:47 PM
Umby's only good at it when we don't believe him. If we act on it, he's wrong. And I'm only good at it when it's amusing for me to be good at it.

Eddie
01-08-2012, 05:59 PM
I was going to take Poetfox's silence as confirmation that I can finagle with Role PMs to some amount, but after reading though her posts again, she said she wanted rules questions in bold, so bold it shall be, so I'm 100% sure.

Poetfox, are we allowed to talk about role PMs?

Please, NO ONE talk about yours! This is part of a plan which I may or may not give details on depending on Poet's answer.

- Eddie

poetfox
01-08-2012, 06:16 PM
My Faithful Students,
Poetfox, are we allowed to talk about role PMs?
If you all really think that's a good idea, I'm not going to stop you.

May the power of friendship guide you.
Princess Celestia

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 06:25 PM
Where does this rabbit hole go, Eddie?

Eddie
01-08-2012, 06:25 PM
Excellent.

I'll work on some codes/cyphers tomorrow. I'm fairly sure I know how to figure out which one is Pinkie Pie if they decide to contact me.

But please! No talking about your role PMs with anyone who isn't confirmed to be Pinkie Pie!

- Eddie

Eddie
01-08-2012, 06:26 PM
Where does this rabbit hole go, Eddie?

Well, we'll see tomorrow.

- Eddie

Nodal
01-08-2012, 06:43 PM
I think Eddie is a drunk.

Umby
01-08-2012, 06:47 PM
Umby's only good at it when we don't believe him. If we act on it, he's wrong. And I'm only good at it when it's amusing for me to be good at it.

No, in The Thing you guys definitely listened when I was right. I just think I'm better at that kind of game than true mafia.

Now, in terms of voting for Edwargen, I say this almost every game someone does some sort of plan on the first day and disagrees, and I'm almost always right: There is no reason to lynch the person who disagrees. The mafia WOULD NOT be so crazy as to try to stop a bandwagon that is working. Edwargen is probably clean. The reason why he is arguing is very much because he, like every other pony, wants an optimized plan. He is arguing what he believes, and hoping to get a better plan with it. Brickroad, as usual, almost never modifies his plans despite flaws, and thanks for Nich for at least trying to.

That being said, Lion Yamato hasn't posted much, only really said that he was going with Brickroad's plan, defended himself somewhat to my distinction that I was looking at "one post players who haven't said much", and pretty much just repeated what other people said. In terms of a day one lynch, Lion Yamato is the best choice because Lion isn't really contributing much and is somewhat suspicious. I intend to vote for Lion Yamato.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 06:55 PM
Sorry, Umby, but I'm not going to take one ounce of shit this game.

Now, in terms of voting for Edwargen, I say this almost every game someone does some sort of plan on the first day and disagrees, and I'm almost always right: There is no reason to lynch the person who disagrees.

This is not a "you disagree with me therefore you must die" situation. He has said things that are blatantly and provably false to try and shoot down green votes. I want to make damn sure those things do not go unchallenged.

Brickroad, as usual, almost never modifies his plans despite flaws, and thanks for Nich for at least trying to.

Explain in detail what you are referring to, please.

schep
01-08-2012, 06:57 PM
I'm fairly sure I know how to figure out which one is Pinkie Pie if they decide to contact me.
Well, I'm confused. But just to double-check, Eddie, you've taken the things below into account?


All players will have a pony persona assigned to them in their PMs, including the Avatars, who have killed and replaced other ponies in their evil quest with their doppleganger-like powers.

The Avatar of Madness presumably has access to an entirely innocent role PM written by poetfox, and so can make educated guesses about Pinkie Pie's role PM.
The Avatar of Madness, if not already knowledgeable about ponies, has almost certainly already read at least one full wiki page on Pinkie Pie.


So I see no beneficial way to play role PM shenanigans this time. But maybe I'll find out what you're talking about later?

On a tangent, it sounds like the main objection to the checksums and ciphers is that there's no clear gain for all the work. To which I say yeah, I still don't know exactly how Pinkie Pie's power could be useful. But as time goes on and there are better reasons to somewhat trust some ponies more than others, maybe Pinkie Pie will want to risk sharing info with somepony. And if the parties will ever be used, the codes would make it harder for Madness to exactly take the place of Pinkie Pie. That said, it is of course all up to Pinkie Pie.

Dizzy
01-08-2012, 07:05 PM
I hope Eddie isn't deliberately stalling time here.

Umby
01-08-2012, 07:05 PM
Explain in detail what you are referring to, please.

I'd actually have to look it up, but referring mostly to M15 where I actually was mafia, there was a lot of talk about lynching someone because they didn't agree with your plan. I think that a person may or may not have been lynched because of it, and was innocent.

You do realize that I make these posts without checking the facts and going off of memory, but you do have a tendency of trying to rally people around you, and then going off at the person who does not agree with your plan because "THEY'RE SO MAFIA FOR DISAGREEING" or something similar. I don't see Edwargen as mafia because no mafia would try to go glaringly against a plan that does make a lot of sense. Edwargen is just concerned for implementing it so early on.

Yimothy
01-08-2012, 07:13 PM
I'm 100% with you on the investigator, doublevoter, and angel. But you're saying the other half of the power roles shouldn't use their abilities? This raises some alarms to me.

Roleblocker I guess I'm ambivalent about. Pinkie Pie I think I've made my position clear on. I'd like to hear how you (or anyone else) would make effective use of the voteblocker, though. It just seems like a good way to get whoever you protect nightkilled to me, and I can't see a situation where I'd use it on anyone except myself. How often does the obvious next vote actually go the way it's expected to, anyway? Seems to me it's pretty rare. Who would you protect tomorrow?


I have an idea on how to tell the two apart, but I'd welcome suggestions.

Am I suggesting that the town gamble on me? Absolutely.

X

No deal, Eddie! I don't trust that you're on our side, and even if you are I don't trust you to be able to tell them apart.

But please! No talking about your role PMs with anyone who isn't confirmed to be Pinkie Pie!

So no talking about role PMs. Gotcha.


The plan is high risk-high reward, making it the sort of plan I, personally, would likely try. But we've all seen my record with night chatting...

Has anyone explained yet what the high reward of this plan is? We can tell which night messages are coming from the person Eddie has decided is Pinkie? I don't see the value. Knowing which messages come from the avatar won't help us identify the avatar, or are we assuming that Pinkie is capable of hiding her identity but the avatar isn't? If Eddie gets it wrong, either accidentally or maliciously, then we risk having people trust the fake Pinkie and giving away information we don't want the avatars to have. I don't like it.


Yimmers, you alluded to the "optimal strategy" of the Mane Six being different from "what you would do". So my next question is, if you were a powered townie, why wouldn't you execute the optimal strategy, as you understand it? Why are the two things different?

The two things are different because I don't believe I'm an optimal strategist. I'll do what I think is best, and promote that to the town, but I'm aware that what I think is best and what's actually best might not be the same thing.

I've been thinking about the mutiny shut down plan and I'm not too keen. Yes, it blocks mutiny, but I don't think mutiny is all that threatening, at least not until the end game. The problem for me is that it empowers darkness, especially towards the end. Sure, if someone drops a vote at 47h58m and then the day ends at 48 hours it'll look really bad for them, but we've already had people saying they'll vote early, which gives the avatars space to hide. But the bigger problem is that when we get down to the wire, we'll be stuffed if darkness is still in play and mutiny hasn't been used yet. If we're in a position to lose on a bad lynch and we're still not voting until 48 hours, darkness can vote-bomb with impunity. Even if we kill the avatar of mutiny, we won't know it because we'll only find out their pony cover identity. I'd much rather see mutiny used early in the game.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 07:13 PM
Okay, fair enough. But keep in mind this is M17, not M15.

And quit misspelling Egarwaen's name.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 07:25 PM
Sure, if someone drops a vote at 47h58m and then the day ends at 48 hours it'll look really bad for them, but we've already had people saying they'll vote early, which gives the avatars space to hide.

Solution: lynch anyone who insists on voting early. WITCH HUNT HO!

My feeling is that if it gets so close to the wire that the avatars can win with a Mutiny/Darkness combo, we were very likely going to lose anyway. Removing Mutiny from the equation for the rest of the game gives us that much more breathing room.

I am not convinced that you or Egar or anyone else has thought of every possible way to use the Mutiny power. You in particular seem to have some pretty hefty blinders about how powers can be used, even to the point of advocating they not be used at all. I know of at least two extremely useful (but situational) applications of the Rarity power that you haven't thought of.

As for this Pinkie Pie/role PM/Eddie/cipher craziness, I'm in an alright place with it. There are way worse things we can do as a town than wind Eddie up and set him loose. Maybe he'll come up with something amazing? Maybe he'll start preaching auto-lynch and we'll have to gouge his eyes out? It is a mystery. I'm willing to wait and see. (Or at least wait and get a good explanation.)

Karzac
01-08-2012, 07:30 PM
Hola mi amigos! I have returned from Cuba and am ready to play this game!

Jiminy Christmas you guys talk a lot, but I suppose I should have expected it from this bunch. It's been tough going through everything, but I'll do my best to be concise.

1) I think Brick's plan is good. It's simple, easy-to-folllow and doesn't fall apart if one person fails cooperate. I agree with Brick's retorts to Egar and Umby: I don't see how red votes are weaker than bold ones. That said, I agree with Umby that Egar's probably clean: this plan only slightly hurts the Mafia, so there's no reason for one to be so adamantly against it early on. In M15, there were two possibly devastating (for the Mafia) plans Day 1, and I'm pretty sure every non-Guild member agreed to them.

2) I dislike Eddie's plan because it's the opposite of Brick's: complicated and potentially disastrous. Who here does not believe that both Pinky and Madness will contact Eddie tonight? That said, it seems like pure Eddie, so I'm not too suspicious of him yet.

3) I think Yimothy's dumb for wanting our power roles not to use their powers. However, I think this stems more from the fact that Yimothy's self-confidence is lacking and he never trusts himself to make important decisions. He assumes that everybody suffers from these same issues, but he's forgetting about things like Breakman in M12. So I don't agree with him, but I don't suspect him.

That leaves me with the same Day 1 crapshoot as always. So I'm going with an old reliable (pseudo) vote. JohnB has made one post. Yes, it's only been a day, but considering this is the first game he's been in from the start for a while, I'd think he'd have some more to say. Let's hear it, Johnny Boy.

I intend to vote for JohnB.

Karzac
01-08-2012, 07:35 PM
Aaaaand, I just saw JohnB's post in the voting thread about his vacation. I'm dumb. But I think I'll leave my intention there, just because JohnB scares me and I don't have any strong suspicions yet.

Egarwaen
01-08-2012, 07:35 PM
I don't see how red votes are weaker than bold ones.

I un-accuse Dizzy.

Red votes are weaker than bold ones because they have no mechanical effect. Tracking and finalizing are entirely up to players who, unlike our GM, cannot be trusted.

Destil
01-08-2012, 07:46 PM
Here's a point:

We shouldn't have any ties if we can help it.
Ties in voting are broken first by who has the most members of the Mane 6 voting for them, and if there is still a tie, then by dice roll.

This rule right here looks like it's to our advantage, an in a way in the end game it can be. But in the early game a tie can give away a member of the Mane 6 or whatever they're called. Given that this game we have the extra loss condition of them all being dead, this is a really bad thing. Because the avatars have extra information on top of that (knowing more people won aren't the Main 6, themselves), they'd have a better chance than the players at working out who's who.

Especially for days where the lychee has a low number of votes, a tie broken by this rule could be one of the worst things to happen. To the point that I'd be willing to move my vote to prevent one unless I was very confidant in whoever I was voting for.

Egarwaen
01-08-2012, 07:49 PM
Are you unaccusing Dizzy because you don't think he's guilty anymore or because you're going with the red-intention plan? If the latter, please say so so it can be tallied with the others.

I'm no longer accusing Dizzy. You will note that I didn't post a red-text vote for Dizzy, so I'm no longer accusing him in any way.

Destil
01-08-2012, 07:50 PM
In fact, I'm more suspicious about ponies whose most relevant action so far was just nodded along and went "yep, yep, I agree with the plan, since [reasons already stated or alluded to by others]". Ponies who fit this criteria are dwolfe, Red Hedgehog, and Dizzy.

I intend to vote for Raven at the 24 hour mark, all else remaining the same.

For making the most milqtoast 'me too' day one post I've seen in a while, while at the same time accusing others for doing the same. Last time I saw this sort of day one post and didn't jump on it publicly despite my instincts going off it was The Giant Head in M10 and we all know how that turned out.

Destil
01-08-2012, 07:52 PM
I'd also sort of point out that Egarwaen's pretty correct, fake votes are more important late in the game, because earlier in the game a scramble to protect an avatar is a really damning strategy that should come back to bite them in the ass. So I agree with him in principle and don't see what he's done as vote worthy. For people who have voted for him: is this because you want to enforce Brick's rule, or do you think he's mafia trying to establish a pattern to slip through a late game vote bomb. Or something else?

Still waiting on an explanation here, by the way. Aside from the vote Egarwaen's not saying anything I didn't in the second post. Brick? Nodal? Merus?

Karzac
01-08-2012, 07:56 PM
I intend to vote for Raven at the 24 hour mark, all else remaining the same.

For making the most milqtoast 'me too' day one post I've seen in a while, while at the same time accusing others for doing the same. Last time I saw this sort of day one post and didn't jump on it publicly despite my instincts going off it was The Giant Head in M10 and we all know how that turned out.

Could you point out the post in question, Destil? Or was it the one you quoted? I also find that sort of behaviour very suspicious and am now considering voting for Raven.

Brickroad
01-08-2012, 08:02 PM
I answered that in one of my long responses upthread. I'm sticking to Egar because we have a foolproof way to shut down a mafioso power, and he doesn't want to do it.

It ain't a smoking gun, but it's Day One. And I don't particularly buy the "no mafia would fight that hard!" line.

Destil
01-08-2012, 08:04 PM
Could you point out the post in question, Destil? Or was it the one you quoted? I also find that sort of behaviour very suspicious and am now considering voting for Raven.

Follow the link on the quote.

Karzac
01-08-2012, 08:11 PM
Hmm... Alright, I'll go for it and let JohnB enjoy his vacation, since you all let me enjoy mine.

I intend to vote for Raven if he doesn't stick his neck out a bit more.

Eddie
01-08-2012, 08:16 PM
I hope Eddie isn't deliberately stalling time here.

I'm not; as mentioned in one of my first posts, I have a sick girlfriend who I need to pay attention to. I will have plenty of time tomorrow to properly write my plan out. Regardless, it's not something that requires a huge amount of debate.

Please, in my absence figure out someone to lynch.

- Eddie

Dizzy
01-08-2012, 08:22 PM
I intend to vote for Umby.

I do not like to what I find to be his half-hearted defense of Egar. Egar's fierce antagonism toward's Brick simple and plausibly effective subversion of the Avatar of Mutiny's power is suspicious of itself in some ways, but I think Umby is trying to do damage control on Egar here who is catching some flak, and it seems a bit shady.

Umby
01-08-2012, 08:30 PM
Are you kidding me, Dizzy? I do this every single game. Last game I protected Raven for attacking Brickroad, and again I was right. This is not damage control, this is all truthfully my thoughts. Again, as mafia, why would I try to damage control? Egar is under deep scrutiny today, and any mafia/Avatar would like to stay far, far away from him.

schep
01-08-2012, 08:39 PM
Oh, wait. I think I may have thought of what Eddie's planning. He's usually not entirely insane, right?

dtsund
01-08-2012, 08:42 PM
Here's a point:

We shouldn't have any ties if we can help it.


This rule right here looks like it's to our advantage, an in a way in the end game it can be. But in the early game a tie can give away a member of the Mane 6 or whatever they're called. Given that this game we have the extra loss condition of them all being dead, this is a really bad thing. Because the avatars have extra information on top of that (knowing more people won aren't the Main 6, themselves), they'd have a better chance than the players at working out who's who.

Especially for days where the lychee has a low number of votes, a tie broken by this rule could be one of the worst things to happen. To the point that I'd be willing to move my vote to prevent one unless I was very confidant in whoever I was voting for.

On the other hand, this game has a relatively weak Angel, and roleclaiming's no good way for a power to avoid a lynch here since the Avatars want even the weaker roles like Rarity dead. In a heated vote, the two mane contenders are almost always voting for each other, and the tiebreak mechanism reduces the chance of accidentally lynching one of the Mane 6 (since if one of the candidates is Mane 6 and the other isn't, the one who isn't automatically has one Mane 6 vote against him). And really, the mechanism doesn't give the Avatars that much to go on, since they won't know which people were responsible or even if it was just the result of a coinflip.

It also slightly raises the probability of lynching an Avatar, too, so there's that.

Kind of tempted to shift my hoof of suspicion to Destil right now. My gut feeling is that this game is tilted somewhat against Ponyville, that we therefore need to get as much mileage out of our Mane 6 as we can, and that Destil should know better.

elementalpenguin
01-08-2012, 08:53 PM
I'm also not too sold on Destil's point here, especially the part about it being terribly bad for us early game if a tie happens. Frankly, this seems like much ado about nothing: I feel that as a whole, most mafia players don't like to let the vote go to a coinflip. This is my understanding of the situation: if, in the early game, many votes are spread out and the lynch candidates have very few votes for them, then one of the ponies on another lynch candidate who is not in the lead usually switches their vote and prevents a tie. If it's a few large bandwagons, the other common case, and one in which a tie is somewhat more likely, then it's a large pool of ponies for the Avatars to investigate if a Mane 6 tiebreak ends up deciding, and they don't get much information. Plus there's the fact that the Mane 6 probably won't be unanimously voting for one person in this situation, and so any pool of players would really be a fine place for the Avatars to start looking. And they won't even know if it was a Mane 6 decision or just the dice.

Either a tie won't happen, or if it does happen it doesn't give the avatars much information.

Torgo
01-08-2012, 08:57 PM
Red votes are weaker than bold ones because they have no mechanical effect. Tracking and finalizing are entirely up to players who, unlike our GM, cannot be trusted.
Except that history has proven that multiple players can and do review past days with a fine tooth comb. Statistically speaking, not everyone can be a liar. Yes, they can make mistakes, but that's why multiple people can (and should) review for themselves.

At this point I'm leaning towards Egarwaen, and lacking any strong evidence against anyone else, my current intention is to vote for him.

Please, in my absence figure out someone to lynch.
My condolences to your ill lady fan.

That being said, when you come back do have an accusation of your own to go with your plan.

Merus
01-08-2012, 09:12 PM
Still waiting on an explanation here, by the way. Aside from the vote Egarwaen's not saying anything I didn't in the second post. Brick? Nodal? Merus?

I have two reasons: I'm enforcing Brick's rule, and I feel like Mutiny would be using the argument now to try and ensure their power is still useful when they need it in the end game. If I had to pick Mutiny I'd be looking towards Egarwaen.

That said, my standard of suspicious behaviour is low right now.

breakman
01-08-2012, 09:16 PM
1) An Avatar is on the chopping block and isn't getting any traction. Mutiny uses their power, and buys that Avatar another day of life. But they die the very next day anyway, and someone else gets lynched after 24 hours of discussion.

2) A townie is on the chopping block and isn't getting any traction. Mutiny uses their power to finger the townie as dirty. The townie gets auto-lynched the next day, and someone else gets lynched after 24 hours of discussion. This is an identical outcome to Mutiny doing nothing at all.

I guarantee you, whoever gets 'saved' by Mutiny will be targeted by Lies that night.

I thought I agreed with you, more or less, that Mutiny's power wouldn't be all that useful to the Avatars. The degree to which you are opposing Brickroad's plan is starting to make me think otherwise.

Mogri
01-08-2012, 09:20 PM
Roleblocker I guess I'm ambivalent about. Pinkie Pie I think I've made my position clear on. I'd like to hear how you (or anyone else) would make effective use of the voteblocker, though. It just seems like a good way to get whoever you protect nightkilled to me, and I can't see a situation where I'd use it on anyone except myself. How often does the obvious next vote actually go the way it's expected to, anyway? Seems to me it's pretty rare. Who would you protect tomorrow?

Let's theorycraft! Suppose voteblocker were not on the town team and was on the scum team instead. Would it then be a useful ability for the player who had it? I propose yes: it alters the voting dynamic. Scum would no doubt bluff with it, etc.

But it's in the hands of an uninformed player. That makes it less useful, to be sure, but it's still information. Even if the power did not voteblock, it would be an information tool. Don't think of it as protection -- it's really not. It's a confirmed townie's way of saying, "Don't lynch this dude." Or "Angel this dude tonight." Or something else. I'm sure a clever player could think of more, better uses for it. Neglecting to use it means one more data point the town won't have.

The same goes for the rest of the power roles to some extent.

Torgo
01-08-2012, 10:03 PM
It also slightly raises the probability of lynching an Avatar, too, so there's that.
How so?

Also, I'm not sure how avoiding ties is somehow not making use of the Mane 6. At the end of the day if two ponies are tied for, say, five votes a piece, that means at minimum the Avatars have a 20% chance of bumping off one of the Manes. If any of the Avatars also voted against the tiebreaking pony, that raises the percentage even further. And heaven only knows if multiple members of the Mane 6 were involved.

Also, I think you're disregarding Evil. Going into the following night/day, they can kill off their top pick, investigate their second, and try to set up a civilian lynch the following day for their third pick.

One plus is that a tie also gives Twilight Sparkle a pool of people to investigate if she's fishing for a confirmation, but even there the mafia can hedge their bets even further by having Lies put up phony info on one of their picks.

The bottom line is that ties narrows the pool of potentials for the Avatars to draw on, and we absolutely do not want to do this. Ever.

Egarwaen
01-08-2012, 10:21 PM
I guarantee you, whoever gets 'saved' by Mutiny will be targeted by Lies that night.

I thought I agreed with you, more or less, that Mutiny's power wouldn't be all that useful to the Avatars. The degree to which you are opposing Brickroad's plan is starting to make me think otherwise.

I've stated that I'm going along with it - I will not place any votes before the 24 hour mark, will help cross-check the vote tallies, and will not discuss the plan further until its flaws become obvious.

In that analysis, I decided to leave Lies out of the equation. It doesn't really affect the town's decision-making. Further, I'm going to be taking every lynch result after today with a grain of salt.

As for the day 1 lynch, I'd advocate watching for activity and voting based on that. There WILL be at least one Avatar trying to slip under the radar by being quiet today, and we should be looking for them. That's how I got Kayma day 1 last game.

Yimothy
01-08-2012, 11:10 PM
But please! No talking about your role PMs with anyone who isn't confirmed to be Pinkie Pie!

I was thinking about this, and I realized that Eddie is saying we can discuss our role PMs with Pinkie after he "confirms" her.

I intend to vote for Eddie

Merus
01-08-2012, 11:24 PM
I was thinking about this, and I realized that Eddie is saying we can discuss our role PMs with Pinkie after he "confirms" her.

I intend to vote for Eddie

Whoa, shit, good catch.

I intend to vote for Eddie.

Merus
01-09-2012, 12:36 AM
I am off work, so: Eddie's plan unnecessarily inserts himself as a trusted party, which is potentially fraught with danger but not hugely risky. However, if he's dirty he can pass on role PMs to Madness, who can then pose as Pinkie. We got distracted about the cipher stuff that we forgot that Eddie was trying to ensure Pinkie talked to him first. If he's dirty, that's way more risky.

JohnB
01-09-2012, 03:36 AM
Aaaaand, I just saw JohnB's post in the voting thread about his vacation. I'm dumb. But I think I'll leave my intention there, just because JohnB scares me and I don't have any strong suspicions yet.

Heh. That's kind of you. I admit that seeing my 4 year old at Disney is just a bit more compelling presently.

I've already commented on Brick's plan, and I support it. Simple to follow. I have no problem seeing Red votes as equal to bolded ones. The cipher thing, though, drives my brain into knots. It did in The Organization and it does now. It seems to be ridiculously difficult, as evidenced by Destil (or it may have been Eddie) admitting to sinking hours into this, and also saying how they would often catch themselves making mistakes. Is that what we want again? And, being the paranoid fucker I am, laying all these cards in one player's basket is an entirely uncomfortable proposition. Does eddie have a sort of "trust exercise" in mind where we/I might be more inclined to believe he isn't going to dupe us all?

I think, though, that for today I will let this Eddie thing play out longer. We see time and time again that Townies go with the logic of bad plan = mafia HURR DURR and yet that never fucking works out well historically. So what to do?

I intend to vote for dizzy.

Why? Because he is a fucking asshole, and not my kind of asshole. He remains contrarian, which is fine, but he doesn't follow that up on any sort of consistent basis with WHY he hates something, only that he does. This sets my not-Town radar off.

Nodal
01-09-2012, 04:39 AM
Does anyone else get the sense that johnb is sick of the motherfuckerb persona? Anyway I think that Eddie is fishy but I'm not ready to switch my red. But know that he is my... Bluevote? I dunno.

JohnB
01-09-2012, 06:26 AM
Does anyone else get the sense that johnb is sick of the motherfuckerb persona? Anyway I think that Eddie is fishy but I'm not ready to switch my red. But know that he is my... Bluevote? I dunno.

Eh. Maybe. More though that I'm posting from my iPhone and typing 300 extra fucks when you're in a hurry seems extraneous. Please know that I still hate every single one of you motherfuckers. Especially dizzy.

Merus
01-09-2012, 06:49 AM
Eh. Maybe. More though that I'm posting from my iPhone and typing 300 extra fucks when you're in a hurry seems extraneous. Please know that I still hate every single one of you motherfuckers. Especially dizzy.
Yeah, well you haven't quit the forum yet so clearly you don't hate 'em that much.

We see time and time again that Townies go with the logic of bad plan = mafia HURR DURR and yet that never fucking works out well historically.

Yeah, this was at the back of my brain during the whole Egarwaen thing. Still, it's not unknown for mafia to put forward dumb ideas or let dumb ideas from townies gain traction - I've both won and lost as mafia based on dumb ideas on day one. As town, so long as we're not killing one of the Mane 6, killing the dumbest idea is not the worst use of day one. Unless day one metagame has moved on since I was last good at mafia.

Yimothy
01-09-2012, 07:29 AM
I'm planning on voting for Eddie not so much because he put up a bad town plan as because he put up a good mafia one.

Anyway, I was thinking about the idea to put up "if I were the investigator, here's what I found out:" posts and I'm souring on it. Because the avatars already know who's on which side, they can find our investigator by eliminating people who post inaccurate results. Thoughts?

JohnB
01-09-2012, 07:45 AM
Yeah, well you haven't quit the forum yet so clearly you don't hate 'em that much.

Gotta stay here to hate here, jackass.

Red Hedgehog
01-09-2012, 09:39 AM
I have no idea what to think of Eddie's plan. I know how on a high level it is supposed to work but would probably have to reread a bunch of posts to figure out the exact mechanism through which the communication is to take place. schep's Checksum plan seems a lot simpler to me, but that could just be because I've dealt with it before.

So it's a complicated plan and I'm not sure what it gets us. Eddie claims to have some great way of verifying Pinkie Pie but that, of course, requires trust in Eddie. Especially this early in the game, I'm not sure why one of the Mane 6 would want to trust some other random schmoe.

Maybe I'm just being dense. I'm sure Nodal would agree that can be the case.

As such, I'd be inclined not to support Eddie's plan.

---

Regarding voting, no one leaps out to me strongly. My read of past games is that people putting out bad plans tend to be town more often than not so I'm not tempted to go for Egarwaen or Eddie yet.

I'm inclined just to flush out a low poster in order to get more information out there. Last game we were lucky in that Kayma was 1) A low poster, 2) Made a very poor, suspicious defense post and 3) Was Mafia and I don't suspect that to happen again. Still, I want to hear more from low posters (yes I realize I'm the proverbial pot):

I intend to accuse dwolfe.

Mogri
01-09-2012, 09:58 AM
Because I'm such a nice guy, I've compiled an up-to-date vote count. Please offer corrections if I've miscounted anything!

But before that, I change my not-a-vote to Eddie until such time as he cares to share with the class. I'm not comfortable with his plan, and if I were Pinkie Pie, I would not be altogether inclined to choose him for my nightchat.

Yimothy: 1
dtsund

Egarwaen: 4
Brick
Nodal
Merus
Torgo

Eddie: 4
Nich
Yimothy
Merus
Mogri

Dizzy: 2
Raven
JohnB

Lion Yamato: 1
Umby

JohnB: 1
Karzac

Raven: 2
Destil
Karzac

Umby: 1
Dizzy

dwolfe: 1
Red Hedgehog

Not voting: 8
botticus (3 posts)
breakman (6 posts)
dwolfe (1 post)
Egarwaen (7 posts)
elementalpenguin (3 posts)
Lion Yamato (2 posts)
schep (7 posts)
Solitayre (4 posts)


At this point in the game, everyone should have some sort of opinion formed. There's no reason for so many people to not be voting. If you're in that list, make a case.

Mogri
01-09-2012, 10:00 AM
Ah, already noticed a thing. Eddie has no current vote either.

I'm particularly interested to hear from our frontrunners Eddie and Egarwaen on their top suspect(s).

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 10:17 AM
I would probably go with dwolfe, I think. Reviewing the post counts (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=12616), he's not just low, he's uncomfortably low. And unlike his neighbors Red Hedgehog and Lion Yamato, his post is entirely content-free, seemingly attempting to ingratiate himself with both sides of the discussion.

breakman
01-09-2012, 11:48 AM
Hm...so, one thing that's clear about Eddie's plan is that, initially, it doesn't depend upon our acceptance of it. All he needs is for Pinkie Pie to think it's a good enough idea to contact him tonight. Of course, we could remove him from the game today, if we didn't want to rely on Pinkie Pie's judgment. I would like to hear more about his plan before it comes to that. It could be that this plan depends upon secrecy, by I don't think I'm prepared to accept that.

In the meantime, I suppose I will intend to accuse Egarwaen. It seemed unlikely to me that Mutiny's power would be useful enough for any of the Avatars to go out of their way to oppose a plan that would greatly diminish that usefulness. However, Egarwaen's...steadfastness does not match the strength of his arguments, in my opinion. Whether I follow through on that accusation will likely depend on what Eddie has to say, though.

Raven
01-09-2012, 11:56 AM
Ah, lots of things happened since the last time I checked. First thing, I'll address these two ponies who suspected me.

I intend to vote for Raven at the 24 hour mark, all else remaining the same.

For making the most milqtoast 'me too' day one post I've seen in a while, while at the same time accusing others for doing the same. Last time I saw this sort of day one post and didn't jump on it publicly despite my instincts going off it was The Giant Head in M10 and we all know how that turned out.



I intend to vote for Raven if he doesn't stick his neck out a bit more.

I don't really follow the argument here. Try to read my accusation post more carefully. To be clear, I called Dizzy out not just because he made a me-too post, but also because he made suspicious one-liners that look like pure padding to me (the post about Torgo is the chief one). Granted, it's not a very strong suspicion on my part, but that's the best I can do with a limited sample size thus far and I can't see how that makes my post a "milqtoast me-too" post (whatever that means).

Now though, Karzac's accusation post make me really wondered. Can you explain better what do you mean by me having to "stick my neck out a bit more"? I already made accusation, and shared my thoughts and suggestions on various issues (viz. Avatar of Lies, Brick's plan, Pinky Pie, Egarwaen & Yimothy's status, etc.) at the time you made that accusation; perhaps you can make a case if you find any of that suspicious, but you certainly can't call me out for not 'sticking out my neck' enough. Especially not when there were still so many people who haven't posted that much. What exactly do you want me to do?

I'm starting to suspect Karzac, mainly because that post reminds me so much of Mafia!Nodal from last game; making (and seconding) an accusation while being really vague and bullshit-y as for why. Explain your reasoning better, otherwise I'll change my vote (or vote intention) to you.

(re: Eddie)

If Eddie is Town, I kind of assumed that his how-to-identify-Pinkie strategy is more than just telling Pinkie to spit out all about her Role PM during their night party. Conversely, I'm not really sure that obtaining information about Pinkie's PM is really worth the risk for Mafia!Eddie to did all this stuffs. I'm leaning more toward him being innocent, but I probably need to see what more he has to say.

Karzac
01-09-2012, 12:13 PM
Alright Raven, I went back and read that post. I guess I was more tired than I thought I was last night, because it reads way differently to me now. Initially, I saw it as a "maybe they're guilty, but maybe they're not, oh well I'll vote for some other guy" post, which is commonly Mafia behaviour. But re-reading it, I see that you firmly expressed your belief in Yimothy and Egarwaen's innocence, instead of hemming and hawing like I'd originally thought. So I retract my intention of voting for you.

Not sure who I'm looking at now though. Now that I've re-read your post, I find Destil's initial accusation a bit fishy. I'm also always game to dwolfe and Dizzy, especially since they seem to be their usual unhelpful selves this game.

I think I intend to vote for Dizzy right now, because I've never been in a game wear he did anything but obfuscate and that doesn't seem to be changing.

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 12:19 PM
Egarwaen's...steadfastness does not match the strength of his arguments, in my opinion. Whether I follow through on that accusation will likely depend on what Eddie has to say, though.

Then attempt to address those arguments instead of throwing out flimsy-ass justifications.

It's worth nothing that I do not suspect either Brickroad or Eddie of being Mafia. Their plans are both very similar to their plans in M15. Either or both could be fronting as Mafia, but we've no evidence pointing that way as of yet.

While I'm still unchanged in my dwofle aggro, I reserve the right to change my vote back to Dizzy. Dude annoys me.

Solitayre
01-09-2012, 12:22 PM
We're half way through Day 1. Are we really going after people based on post counts already?

Also, is it just me, or is this game even more theorycraft heavy than usual, even for Day 1? It made sense in say, Mafiahack, for us to spend day 1 talking about buying strategies and all that. But there's nothing like that here. Worrying about every contingency for every single power is a waste of time and energy. Anyone who keeps pushing the theorycraft button after today is going to get the business from me, because it's a great way to distract us from catching mafia.

If you have a power, understand it. Use it as you see fit. That is literally all I have to say about this.

Also, if you forbid people form voting before the 48 hour mark, don't be surprised when people haven't voted before the 48 hour mark.

People of interest to me so far:

I think Yimothy is shady. He is already playing up the "I don't trust myself" card which is giving himself an excuse to be wishy-washy. I do not like when players do this. I also don't like it when people try to tell roles how to use their power.

I also think Destil is shady. But I don't think I can articulate why, there's nothing I can really point to in his posts that sets my alarms off. And I think that's what's bothering me, if that makes any sense.

Also, there's two or three people saying "I'm thinking I might consider moving my vote onto Destil, maybe." Maybe sort of thinking about voting for someone gets them lynched zero percent of the time, guys. So I think I'll put my money where my mouth is.

I put my silly fake vote non-vote on Destil.

I do not think Egarwaen is shady. His posts read to me like town that just disagrees with Brickroad's plan, which is understandable to me because I also disagree with it, but I know that arguing against it like he did would just make me look suspicious and get me lynched. Case in point. =)

And now, for the most controversial opinion ever:

I think Brickroad is town. No, really! I am increasingly of the opinion that his "green vote/red vote" plan is ridiculous, but I believe he genuinely thought it was a good idea that would help the town. Will it? I guess we'll see.

Mogri
01-09-2012, 12:52 PM
We're half way through Day 1. Are we really going after people based on post counts already?

Also, is it just me, or is this game even more theorycraft heavy than usual, even for Day 1? It made sense in say, Mafiahack, for us to spend day 1 talking about buying strategies and all that. But there's nothing like that here. Worrying about every contingency for every single power is a waste of time and energy. Anyone who keeps pushing the theorycraft button after today is going to get the business from me, because it's a great way to distract us from catching mafia.

If you have a power, understand it. Use it as you see fit. That is literally all I have to say about this.

Also, if you forbid people form voting before the 48 hour mark, don't be surprised when people haven't voted before the 48 hour mark.

This half of the post really rubs me the wrong way. Going after someone with only one post makes more sense now than in the last 12 hours of the day, and it's definitely far enough into the game to have an educated opinion of what's going on. There's no reason why people should not have a vote on the table by now. If we want to look for scum, there are worse places to start than the players who are waiting to put their cards on the table.

That said, I agree re: Yimothy, Brick, and Egar. I'm guessing that controversy remark was sarcas-tastic. I'm not getting the Destil love, though.

breakman
01-09-2012, 12:55 PM
Then attempt to address those arguments instead of throwing out flimsy-ass justifications.

I think Brickroad's done a pretty good job of that already. I'll look things over before the day ends, though, to see if there's any points I'd like to make.

I do not think Egarwaen is shady. His posts read to me like town that just disagrees with Brickroad's plan, which is understandable to me because I also disagree with it, but I know that arguing against it like he did would just make me look suspicious and get me lynched. Case in point. =)

I do not find disagreeing with Brickroad's plan suspicious. I didn't think it was suspicious when Egarwaen made an actual vote instead of a pre-vote, either. He opposed the plan as though following it would be dangerous, but his arguments were unconvincing. I'm not exactly confident that he's an Avatar, but I'll take that over picking a low-poster at random.

Umby
01-09-2012, 01:29 PM
I stop pointing my hoof at Lion Yamato, although I still find him or her rather suspicious, and start pointing it at Solitayre. He just made a post that suggested a protection of people who have not voted and have stayed in the shadows, and kind of rubs me the wrong way as well. We really should be looking at low posters, as we well know that the mafia like to spread themselves evenly among low, middle, and high posters, and people not truly contributing to the conversation are mafia. You just strike me as odd right now, and feel similar to M15, where we were mafia-mates.

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 01:31 PM
As usual when we have the "accuse the low posters" debate (which is like, every single game, why do I have to say this anymore), the idea is less "I would genuinely like this person lynched" than "This person had better start talking if they don't want to end up lynched."

And it has a pretty good track record of actually fishing out Mafia. It caught Kayma in M16, and would have caught Heron and Umby in M15.

schep
01-09-2012, 01:41 PM
My current suspect list is just people who haven't contributed much at all to the theorycrafting (suggestions, criticism, whatever): Destil, dtsund, JohnB, Lion, Merus, Mogri. But that seems about usual for Day 1. PRNG says....

I intend to vote for JohnB.

"Wait, schep, are you saying you want theorycrafting to dominate discussion? Grrr, etc." Well, I think it's the most constructive use of Day 1 time, in a game with several uncommon role powers. Future days, not so much.

Other opinions:
I remain skeptical that voting after 48 hours is a net gain for the town, but I'll play along. One exception: if there is ever a 2/3 consensus about whom to lynch, we can put half the agreed ponies' votes in before 48 hours. If Mutiny nixes those votes, the other half of the agreed ponies can still get the same lynch through the same day. I will treat any officially bold vote which comes in the last few hours before the 48 hour mark as very suspicious. Even if your name is dtsund and/or you stated you would do such a thing; and especially today when there is zero advantage to it.

Brickroad has neither gained trust nor much suspicion with me for the whole plan. That he genuinely thinks it's a good idea and that he thinks it's a way to tip things in Darkness' favor both seem plausible.

Eddie - I have to believe he's a good pony, just Trying Too Hard. Maybe he does have a way to tell whether he's talking to Pinkie Pie, but how will he ever get Pinkie or anypony else to trust him? I have some misgivings about what I suspect his Role PM shenanigans would involve - but that's getting too theoretical if he chooses not to say any more.

If I were Pinkie Pie, I would throw parties, but I would (for now) not mention the username "schep" at those parties, and would try to write simply and minimally and run it through Google Translate so there's less chance someone will guess me from my typing style. My MD5 code offer still stands (intended for Pinkie, but there's nothing I can do to stop Madness from accepting it).

Red Hedgehog
01-09-2012, 01:42 PM
I am also tempted to move my accusation to Solitayre for saying something really stupid.

Do we know if the Avatars know who each other is prior to the first night chat?

schep
01-09-2012, 02:28 PM
Do we know if the Avatars know who each other is prior to the first night chat?

Can't hurt to ask, though our Princess might choose not to answer.

Princess Celestia, do the Avatars of Discord already know each others' "usernames" which are used for posting and voting?

elementalpenguin
01-09-2012, 02:52 PM
I guess I'm being called on to vote.

While a lot of things Egar is saying are not really jiving well with me, I've said it before: he still seems like an townie who is just adamantly opposed to Brick's plan.
Because Brick came out with a plan that I personally liked so far and that I think will benefit the town, I don't see him as mafia so far.
Eddie is a complicated case. He has this really overly-complicated plan that's sort of going over my head, and could really easily help out the mafia if he manages to trick us. That said, he could also have this great plan that if he's not lying to us about, could help us clear up the Madness vs Pinkie Pie stuff. I just don't trust Eddie enough to gamble on him, especially Day 1. That might change later, but at the moment he's a very muddied read.

When I started this post, I was going to vote for Dizzy, who hasn't given much helpful in the way of discussion. If it comes down to two people I'm not sure about, I'd rather vote for the less useful one. But as I'm looking at my list of suspects, I find someone else seeming actually suspicious instead of just vague.

I intend to accuse RedHedgehog.

I like Brick's plan. Not that Mutiny will use their power early (to good effect anyway), but anything that effectively nullifies a mafia power is good in my book.

This right here is a pretty typical "yes me too" post, which usually wouldn't lead to me accusing someone. However, Red's recent post is pinging me.

I am also tempted to move my accusation to Solitayre for saying something really stupid.

Do we know if the Avatars know who each other is prior to the first night chat?

I'd like to know what your exact example of "something really stupid" is. This is just more "yes me too" posts, in a big way, right after someone makes a post that's a bit abrasive. But I can't really find something I'd describe as "really stupid," especially not with elaboration. Red's second part of the post also makes me somewhat suspicious; I feel like there's no reason to ask that, as it seems like it's obvious that they would. I by no means think Red is definitely mafia at the moment, but he's the one who actually gives me a read leaning more towards that side. Clarification of those points would probably help me change my mind, in which case I'd probably go for Dizzy.

Eddie
01-09-2012, 02:59 PM
Alright, time to potentially get laughed out of the game!

I apologize for all the tip-toeing I've done the last few days. Honestly, I would have put this together sooner were it not for circumstances. But here it is, the codes I've generated:

Code 1:
(85)(98)(93)(53)(62)(64)(109)

Code 2:
(54)(96)(29)(59)(91)(34)(02)(23)(132)(15)(20)(117)

Code 3:
(290)(195)(109)(112)(243)(412)(41)(388)(107)(436)( 65)(378)

Code 4:
(01)(133)(261)(125)(203)(225)(234)(46)(99)(65)(23) (78)

Code 5:
(79)(194)(122)(223)(114)(262)(16)(192)(185)(60)(21 )(100)

Code 6:
(85)(29)(104)(04)(66)(31)(20)(95)(69)(57)(14)

Code 7:
(17)(111)(80)(17)(131)(85)(25)(157)

Code 8:
(212)(77)(14)(03)(301)(40)(66)(581)(64)(342)(421)

These codes are designed to spell out a particular word (or words). Are they complicated? Sure! But essentially they go like this:

When a player talks to Pinkie Pie, Pinkie Pie will be able to "solve" one of these codes. They all require knowing what post they came from, and then applying a particular operation on them to deliver the numbers above. Where these numbers come from and the operation needed are of course, only shared in the moment of discussion between Pinkie and whoever they talk to, although the person Pinkie talks to will be able to discuss how to "solve" the particular code if they need to confirm that they've talked to Pinkie. Only ONE of the codes above require doing more than one operation to it. I have double checked these codes, but will triple check them as long as Pinkie talks to me first (which they would need to in order to get the answers)

Now I know there have been some trust issues surrounding my motives, in particular, people want to know how I'll pick out the "real" Pinkie Pie from the "fake" one. The answer, quite simply, is that I'm one of the Mane 6, Rarity!

http://i.imgur.com/F2Vw4.jpg

My power even more or less allows me to prove it. Or rather, the proof is that tomorrow, no one will receive one of my dresses except perhaps me. If any other pony is Rarity, they can prove I'm a mafia fake simply by making a dress for anyone else. I'm sure if you think even briefly, you will recognize that if I was actually Mafia (or a regular citizen) this would be a horrible idea (you may think my reveal is a horrible idea too, but that is neither here no there).

This is also how I plan to tell which party is a Pinkie Pie Party, since I'm familiar with what a Mane 6 role PM looks like, and I'm presuming that the evil avatar people do not. Incidentally, being able to prove I'm Rarity means that Pinkie Pie can trust me, and she can trust what I say is in the interest of the town.

But Eddie, we lose if all the Mane 6 are killed!

Yes, but much like any resource in a game, you only lose when the last bit of a resource is lost. I'm offering myself up such that the citizen ponies can get a good headstart at the beginning of the game.

Face it, my power isn't very useful except for confirming my role. That's okay! If the Mafia want to take me out, they'll likely have to waste a nightkill going through Fluttershy's protection. That's a win-win to me; either they lose a nightkill tonight, or they give me an extra day to be a confirmed citizen. Both are very valuable from a town perspective in my opinion.

But you're dictating player actions!

Sure I am! I'm asking Pinkie Pie to contact me, and I'm also asking Fluttershy to protect me. It's still their choice of course; but I'm also potentially asking the mafia to target me, suspend my power, and silence me. Better me than any other citizen pony as far as I'm concerned.

But what if you really can't tell them apart?

Regrettable, but not disastrous. In the event that I cannot determine one way or another, I simply won't give either the codes. We'll end up in the previous situation where we trust neither party to be Fluttershy, but still end up a confirmed citizen.

In the case I can't decide, and am silenced the following day, I'll vote within the first 24 hours. If not, I'll vote after hour 24. Hopefully such a declaration will not anger Poetfox since I've declared it beforehand, but regardless the real Pinkie Pie can relay this information onto her target so it may be told on day 3.

I can't believe you revealed yourself! You're terrible at Mafia!

I planned this from the beginning as soon as I found out I was Rarity. I had to use that power somehow, and this was the best way I could figure. Sorry if you expected more from me, but I'm pretty comfortable in my decision. After day 2, it becomes progressively harder to confirm myself, so Day 1 it is. This potentially lets Fluttershy get the most mileage out of her power too. And anyway, I think I made myself a pretty attractive night kill before this!

So, uh, who are you going to vote for?

I haven't decided, but I'm leaning towards one of the people who weren't critical of my plan. The mafia have the most to gain from going along with it given the sparse lack of details. This was somewhat intentional, although I do love kicking the low posters too. I'll vote early tomorrow morning when I think about it some more, but for now I will red-accuse Dwolfe.

- Eddie

Karzac
01-09-2012, 03:07 PM
Wow, uh, okay. I still don't understand the code plan though.

Brickroad
01-09-2012, 03:08 PM
I trust Eddie. Time will tell whether this was a good idea or not.

poetfox
01-09-2012, 03:09 PM
My Faithful Students,
Princess Celestia, do the Avatars of Discord already know each others' "usernames" which are used for posting and voting?

They have knowledge of who each of the other Avatars are, yes.

May the power of friendship guide you.
Princess Celestia

Lion Yamato
01-09-2012, 03:11 PM
I stop pointing my hoof at Lion Yamato, although I still find him or her rather suspicious, and start pointing it at Solitayre.

You can go with "him" for no doubt future spurious voting shenanigans.

To be honest, your sudden shift from me to Solitayre is a little disconcerting. I feel like voting for me was a safe, throwaway thing to do at that point in time after your odd defense of Egar. Hopping on the current Solitayre bandwagon strikes me as equally safe because, well, lynching low posters and/or their defenders can always be justified, right?

Dizzy mentioned he thought you might be doing damage control for Egar as Avatar partners, but I'm not so sure about Egar being an Avatar so much as a misguided pony. So hey, I guess we agree there, right?

Again, as mafia, why would I try to damage control? Egar is under deep scrutiny today, and any mafia/Avatar would like to stay far, far away from him.

What I don't agree with is your last statement. If Egar wasn't an Avatar, but was on the chopping block, it certainly wouldn't look bad for an Avatar to defend him. Especially if done in a wishy-washy, plausible deniability fashion.

Honestly, I'm not a big fan of Egar right now. However, Umby has nearly convinced me of Egar's innocence just by acting like, well, an Avatar.

The big topic at the moment seems to be whether or not low-posters are worthy of lynches. To me, it's what's in the posts themselves as opposed to how many there are. Low posting is a dangerous game, because you have a lot less words to hide behind. I've not posted a lot, but I've made my feelings rather clear in every one I've done. Here's adding another one to that list.

I intend to vote for Umby.

dtsund
01-09-2012, 03:19 PM
Huh. This is... this is a thing.

I'm well aware that this claim would be positively stupid for the Avatars to make, so I now trust Eddie completely; all a non-Eddie Rarity would need to do would be to give a dress to somepony else, and Eddie wouldn't even be able to feign roleblocking. Moreover, Rarity's power is so weak that if it weren't for the "Mane 6 die, we all lose" clause, a Day 1 reveal for a confirmed citizen would be obviously optimal, and even here I don't think it's completely crazy.

Because I'm willing to treat Eddie as confirmed innocent and would be perfectly happy letting such a pony guide our lynch today, I'll intend to accuse dwolfe for now, and follow his vote onto anypony he chooses. I'd like everypony else to do so too; allowing a known-innocent to guide the Day 1 lynch (blocking all possible evil influence) can have excellent results, as anypony who played in Mafia 6 can no doubt attest.

Fake edit: Umby Cycle starting early, I see.

Dizzy
01-09-2012, 03:19 PM
Okay ponies, I just got in and will review the latest updates and provide my commentary and proposals. I know some of you have been fighting unendurable impatience to see my perspective of things.

Mogri
01-09-2012, 03:25 PM
derp

Really? Wow. Okay.

Let me ask you a question: what are you hoping to accomplish here? Let's say you manage a way to confirm Pinkie's identity starting on night 2. Then what? Where's the plan go beyond that? I mean, yeah, you've effectively neutered Madness (at least in theory -- this is reliant on your role PM plan working), but you've also outed yourself as a town PR that the scum team can kill at their leisure.

Anyway, while I think your plan is a terrible idea, I at least see your reasoning is sound, so I'll un-redvote you for now. Let's put more pressure on dwolfe to bring him out of hiding.

Lion Yamato
01-09-2012, 03:26 PM
Fake edit: Umby Cycle starting early, I see.

I can only guess this means Umby has a habit of playing extremely suspiciously and getting lynched early? The metagame to this forum's mafia is daunting to say the least. I've already been mildly amused/horrified to see people admit to voting for others on the sheer basis of "that guy sucks/is a big poopiehead."

I can only go with what I've seen in this game.

Solitayre
01-09-2012, 03:28 PM
Reveal!

I hope you're supremely confident in what you think you know about your role PM that sets it apart from other role PMs.

I'm not too worried about you getting killed, the risk of whiffing a nightkill is a pretty big deterrent, and I doubt Rarity is a high priority target. I AM worried about you not being able to tell who you're talking to, but you knew that risk going in.

I think the biggest danger is people not being able to understand the ciphers though. I suggest you make very, very sure that you make them clear. Otherwise this whole gambit was for nothing.

Also let's hope Brick isn't the Avatar of Madness.


Hopping on the current Solitayre bandwagon strikes me as equally safe because, well, lynching low posters and/or their defenders can always be justified, right?

What Solitayre bandwagon?

Karzac
01-09-2012, 03:32 PM
I can only guess this means Umby has a habit of playing extremely suspiciously and getting lynched early? The metagame to this forum's mafia is daunting to say the least. I've already been mildly amused/horrified to see people admit to voting for others on the sheer basis of "that guy sucks/is a big poopiehead."

I can only go with what I've seen in this game.

It's more that Umby has a habit of playing extremely suspiciously and getting lynched only when he's innocent. I agree that he's being super suspicious, but I also thought that last game before I got into the Spectator Room and found out he was innocent. So I can't fault anyone for voting for him, but I just can't read him well enough to be sure yet.

As for piling onto dwolfe, I think that's a dangerous idea. Bandwagons give the Avatars a lot of room to hide in. I'm fine with dwolfe dying, but I'd rather we end the day with a couple strong kynch candidates, as that gives us more information to work with.

Nodal
01-09-2012, 03:34 PM
Are we sure Eddie and Nich didn't switch usernames? Anyway, I can't see the point of switching from Egarwaen. Dude still seems like mafia! I could maybe get behind killing Umby though.

Lion Yamato
01-09-2012, 03:44 PM
What Solitayre bandwagon?

The short succession of people who disliked what you had to say and quickly responded.

This half of the post really rubs me the wrong way.

I stop pointing my hoof at Lion Yamato, although I still find him or her rather suspicious, and start pointing it at Solitayre.

I am also tempted to move my accusation to Solitayre for saying something really stupid.

Destil
01-09-2012, 03:51 PM
Nice one Eddie.

Princess Celestia, if the do the Avatar uses their power on a player and they then night kill that pony while it's in effect, do they learn the pony's true identity for themselves, or are they as fooled by the lie as the rest of us?

More when I get home.

Destil
01-09-2012, 03:52 PM
Holy fuck learn to type, Destil.


Princess Celestia, if the do Avatar of Lies uses their power on a player and they then night kill that pony while it's in effect, do they learn the pony's true identity for themselves, or are they as fooled by the lie as the rest of us?

Umby
01-09-2012, 03:53 PM
But, see, that's the thing. Solitayre did say something stupid, and it's not as much that he said something stupid is that he's playing like he did when he was mafia in M15. He likes to be helpful, but says very little of use (i.e. what he's doing right now).

As of why I voted for you, Lion Yamato, before I voted for Solitayre, you fit the bill of the kind of person I was looking for. You said very little except an affirmative towards Brickroad's plan, and then kind of felt the need to post once I called out that any low posting players needed to step up because they were suspicious, except you didn't really want to say anything. I found a better person to put my vote on, but be assured that you would be my next choice.

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 03:55 PM
Are we sure Eddie and Nich didn't switch usernames? Anyway, I can't see the point of switching from Egarwaen. Dude still seems like mafia! I could maybe get behind killing Umby though.

Pointing out an impressively content-free post.

So, since there still seem to be a large number of people obsessed with killing me because I wanted to avoid a plan I thought would cause confusion, I may as well try some role PM shenanigans. Here goes...

I am, in fact, Big Macintosh. You're going to have pie on your snouts if I'm the one to fall to the town's hooves today. My role PM says that, as a citizen of Ponyville, (sentence break) I have a distinct lack of special powers, and admonishes me to be cautious with my voting. Avatars is mentioned once in its text, and is all lower-case.

Merus
01-09-2012, 04:03 PM
Well this is a turnup for the books. No longer intending to vote for Eddie.

Well, let's stir up the bottom-feeders. I intend to vote for dwolfe unless he start participating.

Are we really going after people based on post counts already?

You'd think dwolfe would be able to manage more than one post in two days. He posts, we move on.

Eddie
01-09-2012, 04:04 PM
Don't talk about your role PMs

. You're going to have pie on your snouts if I'm the one to fall to the town's hooves today. My role PM says that, as a citizen of Ponyville, (sentence break) I have a distinct lack of special powers, and admonishes me to be cautious with my voting. Avatars is mentioned once in its text, and is all lower-case.

What did I tell you not do?

And what did you just do?

- Eddie

Merus
01-09-2012, 04:05 PM
I don't understand. How can you know there's a large number of people obsessed with killing you with Brick's plan going the way it is? How can anyone know anything if we don't cast for-real votes!? Aaaaaaaaaa
lol

dtsund
01-09-2012, 04:11 PM
Let's not do mass roleclaiming plz kthx. The only ponies who won't be able to participate in that are (probably) the Mane 6, and we really don't need to tell the Avatars who they are, and we also kind of don't need to be narrowing the field of possible Mane 6 either, Egarwaen.

Anyway, for all we know, the Avatars may have gotten exact sample role PMs to help them hide. Though maybe the Mane 6 did too; the intro flavor text with the illusion spell would lend itself to that. Eddie, did your role PM say whether you were disguised as somepony else?

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 04:14 PM
Let's not do mass roleclaiming plz kthx. The only ponies who won't be able to participate in that are (probably) the Mane 6, and we really don't need to tell the Avatars who they are, and we also kind of don't need to be narrowing the field of possible Mane 6 either, Egarwaen.

What did I tell you not do?

And what did you just do?

- Eddie

Yeah, I'm presently leading the lynch vote thanks to a bunch of votes whose only justification is that I'm suspicious for disagreeing with Brickroad. Courtesy of all this obsession with Grand Master Plans, I didn't exactly have a lot of viable strategies open to either ensure my continued survival or ensure that my teammates get any kind of useful information out of my lynching.

(And yes, I'm pretending that pseudovotes are real votes, as Brickroad's plan hinges on being able to presume that.)

dtsund
01-09-2012, 04:16 PM
Courtesy of all this obsession with Grand Master Plans, I didn't exactly have a lot of viable strategies open to either ensure my continued survival or ensure that my teammates get any kind of useful information out of my lynching.

Welcome to Day 1.

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 04:18 PM
Welcome to Day 1.

Ayup.

poetfox
01-09-2012, 04:22 PM
My Faithful Students,
Princess Celestia, if the Avatar of Lies uses their power on a player and they then night kill that pony while it's in effect, do they learn the pony's true identity for themselves, or are they as fooled by the lie as the rest of us?

If you'd like to read the rules, my little pony, you will find the Avatar of Lies' power says nothing about affecting the information granted from nightkill results, just lynches and inspections.

May the power of friendship guide you.
Princess Celestia

Mogri
01-09-2012, 04:24 PM
Yeah, I'm presently leading the lynch vote thanks to a bunch of votes whose only justification is that I'm suspicious for disagreeing with Brickroad. Courtesy of all this obsession with Grand Master Plans, I didn't exactly have a lot of viable strategies open to either ensure my continued survival or ensure that my teammates get any kind of useful information out of my lynching.

(And yes, I'm pretending that pseudovotes are real votes, as Brickroad's plan hinges on being able to presume that.)

The avatars win if they kill all of the Mane 6

Dear Egar,

You don't matter. All that needs to happen for scum to win is for the PRs to die. Vanilla townies are cannon fodder, and unless you're lying, you've just exhausted 90% of your usefulness to the team.

Love,
The Town

Lion Yamato
01-09-2012, 04:24 PM
As of why I voted for you, Lion Yamato, before I voted for Solitayre, you fit the bill of the kind of person I was looking for. You said very little except an affirmative towards Brickroad's plan, and then kind of felt the need to post once I called out that any low posting players needed to step up because they were suspicious, except you didn't really want to say anything. I found a better person to put my vote on, but be assured that you would be my next choice.

Yeah, I hear you. I know exactly why you voted for me, which was I was an easy, throwaway vote that you could tenuously justify through post count while you, uh, "staunchly defended" Egar. Who looks a lot more innocent to me in light of his most recent post.

Except, your stated problems with me don't work in context. You mention I had posted an affirmative towards Brickroad's plan, but you neglect to say that I was among the very first to be completely gung-ho for it. You say that I only posted a second time because you made me "step up," but that's spurious, Catch-22 reasoning because either I a) never posted again after your post, cementing my low poster, "terribly suspicious" position, or b) only posted "to save myself from Umby's piercing gaze."

That's, uh, that's one hell of a trap there. You sure got me.

Furthermore, my second post was far less frivolous then you would like everyone to think. I firmly stated my opposition to Eddie's plan and brought up his lack of a response to Nich's question on how he would tell apart Pinkie Pie and Madness. Well, I guess that's not an issue anymore...

Anyway, you probably should have really examined what I was saying before counting me as an easy, no-risks lynch. It's kind of telling when no one else particularly shared your misgivings.

Mogri
01-09-2012, 04:28 PM
Nice one Eddie.

Princess Celestia, if the do the Avatar uses their power on a player and they then night kill that pony while it's in effect, do they learn the pony's true identity for themselves, or are they as fooled by the lie as the rest of us?

More when I get home.

Whoa, hold on. Give me one reason why a townie would ask this question. This kind of information only matters to the scum team.

I redvote Destil.

Brickroad
01-09-2012, 04:32 PM
Yeah, I'm presently leading the lynch vote thanks to a bunch of votes whose only justification is that I'm suspicious for disagreeing with Brickroad.

HEY EGARWAEN,

NOBODY IS VOTING FOR YOU BECAUSE YOU DISAGREED WITH ME OR MY PLAN.

PEOPLE ARE VOTING FOR YOU BECAUSE YOU OPPOSED THE PLAN HELLA VIOLENTLY BY USING FLIMSY, UN-SUPPORTED ASSERTIONS, INCLUDING FACTS VERY STRONGLY CONTRADICTED BY TT MAFIA HISTORY.

Nice strawman, though. Mis-identifying why you're being lynched, in hopes someone will feel sorry for you, is a ploy I've used in the past when I was mafia.

Also, you did the one thing our only confirmed townie asked us not to do, and narrowed the pool of targets for Team Avatar. Hurry up and diaf.

poetfox
01-09-2012, 04:34 PM
A bell rings on the door to a bakery.

“Mr. Cake? Mrs. Cake? Are you open?” asked a unicorn named Lyra as she walked into Sugarcube Corner.

“We’re open!” came Mr. Cake’s voice from the back, and soon Mrs. Cake appeared behind the counter.

“Yes, we’re open! Not like there’s anything else to do. We just couldn’t stand around nervous. Might as well do something.” Mrs. Cake smiled.

“I agree,” said Lyra, nodding. “Bon-bon and I have just been pacing about the house, worried… so I thought I’d do something. Get a little treat to get our minds off of this whole situation, maybe.”

“Sounds like a good plan to me,” said Mrs. Cake. “What can I get you?”

Lyra blushed a bit. “I… hadn’t thought that far ahead.”

“Well, what does Bon-Bon like?” Mrs. Cake asked.

“Something not chocolate? She gets enough of that sampling her own work.”

“How about this?” said a muffled voice, and Mr. Cake emerges from the back, carrying a tray of fresh apple tarts in his mouth, leaving them on the counter. “Just out of the oven,” he added.

“That’s perfect!” said Lyra with a smile.

“Then I’ll get them boxed up for you,” said Mr. Cake.

Soon the treats were boxed and the bill all paid.

“Thanks again, Mr. and Mrs. Cake,” Lyra said, getting ready to go.

“Anytime,” said Mr. Cake.

“Um, before you go…” Mrs. Cake said softly.

“Yes?” said Lyra, turning around.

“You wouldn’t have happened to have seen Pinkie Pie around, have you? She… hasn’t come home today.” Mrs. Cake tried not to look as worried as she felt.

“No, I haven’t…” said Lyra. “But, well, I have seen her friend Rarity? Maybe I can ask her if she’s seen Pinkie if I bump into her again?”

“I’d appreciate that,” said Mrs. Cake, taking a breath. “Well, don’t let me slow you down. I’m sure Bon-Bon can’t wait for you to get back with those while they’re still warm.”

“Of course! See you both later!”

Vote Tally
Yimothy
dtsund

Dizzy
Egarwaen

There are approximately 24 hours left in the day. Good luck, my little ponies.

Brickroad
01-09-2012, 04:36 PM
Time to cash in your redvotes, ponies!

I accuse Egarwaen.

Dizzy
01-09-2012, 04:36 PM
I'm currently doing some data mining and tabulation. I think I've found a better method of pinpointing who I want lynched.

dtsund
01-09-2012, 04:37 PM
I accuse dwolfe.

Destil
01-09-2012, 04:38 PM
Whoa, hold on. Give me one reason why a townie would ask this question. This kind of information only matters to the scum team.

I redvote Destil.

Aside from wanting liking to know if they could fake a role after killing them, you mean?

In games where only the killers know the identify of players night killed, they have free reign to kill someone and take their place when under heat if their role can't be confirmed.

I wanted to know if they would be getting more information than us if their power worked the way I thought it did. Not that it matters since I fail at reading.

But how can any information matter only to one team? How many fucking times have we lost ground in these games because the bad guys have had the DM in on night chat answering rules questions and understood the rules better than the players? More than zero.

Eddie
01-09-2012, 04:39 PM
Don't talk about Role PMs Solitarye!

Let's not do mass roleclaiming plz kthx

THE SAME GODDAMN POST

Eddie, did your role PM say?

Okay, you see, what I say "don't talk about PMs unless you're talking to Pinkie Pie" I really don't mean "hey, let's talk about PMs all day!"

Am I Pinkie Pie? I'll give you a hint just in case you haven't properly been following along!

NO.

I accuse dtsund. You're either playing a dumb townie or a mafioso trolling for information. I'll take my chances with the latter.

- Eddie

p.s. Thanks Brick for making this post like completely meaningful next to your gigantic one about Egarwaen.

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 04:43 PM
Dear Egar,

You don't matter. All that needs to happen for scum to win is for the PRs to die. Vanilla townies are cannon fodder, and unless you're lying, you've just exhausted 90% of your usefulness to the team.

That's absolutely and completely untrue.

Prior to Eddie's reveal, any given Pony had a 6/18 chance of being one of the Mane 6 - about 33%.

After Eddie's reveal, any given Pony has a 5/18 chance of being one of the Mane 6 - about 28%.

After my reveal, presuming you believe it, any given Pony has a 5/17 chance of being one of the Mane 6 - about 29%, an insignificant difference.

Further, had I not revealed, my lynch would have granted precisely the same information to the Avatars prior to their night-kill this evening... Except with a much greater level of confidence. Right now, they have no idea whether or not I'm telling the truth about being a vanilla townspony. If you lynch me, they'll know for sure.

And yeah, Brick, if you'd pull your head out of your ass, most of your co-horts on this bandwagon have basically said "Well, I don't know about anything, but that Egar fella shore is suspicious! Ayup!"

In the absense of a better choice, I vote for dwolfe.

dtsund
01-09-2012, 04:45 PM
Goddammit Eddie, I figured you probably hadn't really been given a name to fake and was trying to open the door for you to ask a question only Pinkie Pie could easily answer.

Destil
01-09-2012, 04:49 PM
I don't really follow the argument here. Try to read my accusation post more carefully. To be clear, I called Dizzy out not just because he made a me-too post, but also because he made suspicious one-liners that look like pure padding to me (the post about Torgo is the chief one). Granted, it's not a very strong suspicion on my part, but that's the best I can do with a limited sample size thus far and I can't see how that makes my post a "milqtoast me-too" post (whatever that means).

I'm doubtful if Egar and/or Yimothy are Avatars, simply because they come out making fierce arguments and (in Egar's case) poking holes at a plan that is relatively accepted by the majority of players. Doesn't mean I agree with their arguments (for the record: I'm willing to go with Brick's plan at the moment, and I think Pinkie should just decide by herself on what to do), but it's still a good thing to have as much inputs as possible regarding any ideas or plan we're going to use. And, if they're Avatars, they must have known better than to being vocal/potentially controversial, which is the best thing to do if you want to attract early votes and increase your chance of being lynched on Day 1.I agree with Bricks plan that everyone agrees with. I agree that power roles should make choices on their own.

Of those three, I'm going to assume that the wolf and the hedgehog just haven't had anything more worthwhile to say at that moment. Dizzy, on the other hand, made me very uneasy; his posts are meaningless one-liners that smell fishy to me. Especially this one where he (unsuccessfully) tried to raise suspicion on Torgo. (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1224153&postcount=36)

I intend to accuse Dizzy.I will then proceed to vote for someone who gets on people's nerves and who's barely participated, a vote unlikely to draw any attention down the line.

As I was saying, I accuse...

What the fuck dtsund? Not just Eddie's point. THIS:

Because I'm willing to treat Eddie as confirmed innocent and would be perfectly happy letting such a pony guide our lynch today, I'll intend to accuse dwolfe for now, and follow his vote onto anypony he chooses. I'd like everypony else to do so too; allowing a known-innocent to guide the Day 1 lynch (blocking all possible evil influence) can have excellent results, as anypony who played in Mafia 6 can no doubt attest.

Kyle got someone day one because of a very good gambit on her part, in fact pretty much via misleading the mafia. This seems to be overstating Eddie's insight a bit, doesn't it? Almost like you know how that lynch may turn out...

Well, I'll stick with Raven for now. Might not mind seeing dtsund hang if it comes to that ( though I've always had a hard time reading him).

I accuse Raven.

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 04:49 PM
Whoops, I mis-mathed.

After Eddie's reveal, any given pony has a 5/17 = 29% chance of being a member of the Mane 6.

After my reveal, any given pony has a 5/16 = 31% chance of being a member of the Mane 6.

Again, not a significant difference.

Destil
01-09-2012, 04:51 PM
Uhm... they have six names they know aren't the Mane Six you're not counting.

schep
01-09-2012, 04:52 PM
Aww, Eddie. You always go for the extra flair, but sometimes simpler is better.

Well, okay then. So Eddie is probably Rarity, and therefore might be able to use PM shenanigans to tell Pinkie Pie from Madness. But remember, if Eddie is up to mischief, we won't find out until the morning of Day Two.

So if I were Pinkie Pie, at this point I would party with Eddie tonight, but still take precautions not to mention my username ("schep") at the party. Instead, I would set up a slightly uncommon phrase. If Eddie has a fabulous outfit tomorrow, I would work that key phrase into my first post of Day Two. That way Eddie would learn my identity only after I trust him. If somepony else has a fabulous outfit, none of this will matter, since everypony will be cornering Eddie.

(Also, I'm going to work a slightly uncommon, slightly awkward phrase into my first post of Day Two whether I really am Pinkie Pie or not, just to mess with the Avatars.)

As always, the real Pinkie Pie is free to follow, modify, or ignore my suggestions.

Princess Celestia: If Rarity makes an outfit for a pony, but the Avatars kill that same pony on the same night, will everyone still see the outfit?

Eddie
01-09-2012, 04:52 PM
DRRR ROLE PMS.

I don't understand why you are still talking.

Get this straight dtsund: I'm not talking about my role PM. Nor am I playing 20 questions about my role PM. There are only one group of people who would have any interest in learning what I do and do not have in my role PM.

Mafia.

- Eddie

Brickroad
01-09-2012, 04:54 PM
And yeah, Brick, if you'd pull your head out of your ass, most of your co-horts on this bandwagon have basically said "Well, I don't know about anything, but that Egar fella shore is suspicious! Ayup!"

Is that what they said? Let's see...

In the meantime, I suppose I will intend to accuse Egarwaen. It seemed unlikely to me that Mutiny's power would be useful enough for any of the Avatars to go out of their way to oppose a plan that would greatly diminish that usefulness. However, Egarwaen's...steadfastness does not match the strength of his arguments, in my opinion. Whether I follow through on that accusation will likely depend on what Eddie has to say, though.

Except that history has proven that multiple players can and do review past days with a fine tooth comb. Statistically speaking, not everyone can be a liar. Yes, they can make mistakes, but that's why multiple people can (and should) review for themselves.

At this point I'm leaning towards Egarwaen, and lacking any strong evidence against anyone else, my current intention is to vote for him.

Yes, the first unofficial vote count designed to test its practicality and root out sources of error... had an error. Who'd have thunk?

You're really, really reaching here.

(Bolding mine.)

Whoops! Sorry. No, it looks like folks are voting for you because they're unconvinced by your arguments, not because you disagree with me.

Kinda difficult to make a case when the evidence is against you, ain't it? Ayup.

Mogri
01-09-2012, 04:55 PM
That's absolutely and completely untrue.

Prior to Eddie's reveal, any given Pony had a 6/18 chance of being one of the Mane 6 - about 33%.

After Eddie's reveal, any given Pony has a 5/18 chance of being one of the Mane 6 - about 28%.

After my reveal, presuming you believe it, any given Pony has a 5/17 chance of being one of the Mane 6 - about 29%, an insignificant difference.

Further, had I not revealed, my lynch would have granted precisely the same information to the Avatars prior to their night-kill this evening... Except with a much greater level of confidence. Right now, they have no idea whether or not I'm telling the truth about being a vanilla townspony. If you lynch me, they'll know for sure.

And yeah, Brick, if you'd pull your head out of your ass, most of your co-horts on this bandwagon have basically said "Well, I don't know about anything, but that Egar fella shore is suspicious! Ayup!"

In the absense of a better choice, I vote for dwolfe.

Hah. Better check your math at the door, kids, because it's time for probabilistic analysis.

The Avatars know the identities of six of the players. That leaves them with a 6/12 chance of bagging a PR. Fifty percent, you might say.

Now, let's believe Eddie for a bit. "I'm a PR!" he says. Scum crosses one off their list and have a 5/11 chance of figuring out someone else. Forty-five percent.

Then you go and do your thing. If we believe you, too, then we're at 5/10 -- back to fifty percent. Same odds we started with, right? Except Rarity's out of the equation, removing one of the more useless PRs and giving scum a significantly improved chance of gunning someone useful. You may not be scum, but you're the town's biggest liability so far.

As for Destil: why would scum scramble and kill the same player on the same night? I mean I guess this isn't as scummy as I first indicated, but it's still baffling why you would ask this. So I guess I'll go back to voting for dwolfe.

elementalpenguin
01-09-2012, 04:55 PM
I wanted to know if they would be getting more information than us if their power worked the way I thought it did. Not that it matters since I fail at reading.

Wait, explain this please? How could they possibly get more info than us by being fooled by their own lies? I might have just been mislead by the misspellings in your posts, so sorry if I don't get it.

Also, hey Egar! How can we trust your claim at all, since if you're an avatar you have a townie identity?

I vote for Red Hedgehog.

I'll stick on Red until he comes forward and explains, at which point I probably will switch to Dizzy or Destil if Red clears himself enough. Not Dwolfe, since he has enough pressure on him already.

Egarwaen
01-09-2012, 04:56 PM
Uhm... they have six names they know aren't the Mane Six you're not counting.

24 players total.

6 Avatars, 18 players who are either vanilla Ponies or Mane 6. (6/18)

1 revealed Mane 6, 17 players who are either vanilla Ponies or the 5 remaining Mane 6. (5/17)

1 revealed vanilla Pony, players who are either 16 vanilla Ponies or 5 remaining Mane 6. (5/16)