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shivam
09-17-2010, 02:39 AM
It's 1870, in the wilds of New Mexico, in a little know-nothing post stop called Thornbush. The Civil War ended, and left a lot of men with a lot of time on their hands and a lot of military training, and nothing to do with either. They formed bands of outlaws in the desert, and rustled cattle and held up stagecoaches, and generally had their way.

That was, until the Sheriff came to town. He didn't know anyone, so he just grabbed a few townies who looked trustworthy, deputized them, and told them to help him set things straight.

Unfortunately, he ended up waking the rattlesnake, and ended up facedown in a puddle of whiskey in the Saloon the next day. Now the deputies, eager to be free of the outlaws, are looking for blood and vengeance for their one ticket back to civilization. And the outlaws aim to keep the status all quo like, if you know what I mean. The game's afoot, men. Only question is who's gonna win?

http://www.rollspel.com/engelsk/western/duel.gif
DEAD MAN'S GULCH
Mafia meets the wild, wild west.

Players
Alive:(12)
Javex
Spineshark
torgo
rai
johnb
namelessentity
Eddie
dtsund
Byron - town drunk
Tock
Merus
Wheels

Dead: (11)
Nich - shot by confirmed town drunk day 1
Dizzy - confirmed outlaw lynched day 1
Destil - Killed Night 1
McClain - Killed Night 1
Adam - confirmed outlaw lynched day 2
Alpha Werewolf - Killed Night 2
Widdershins - confirmed townie lynched day 3
Brickroad - Snitch lynched day 4
Umby - Killed Night 4
Nodal - Killed Night 4

Guaranteed Roles:
1 Priest (inspector)
1 Lone Wolf (vigilante)

16 generic townies with potential roles.

4 Outlaws with some roles.

Rules:
There are two teams: Townies and Outlaws.
Townies win by killing all of the outlaws. Outlaws win by equaling or outnumbering the townies at the start of a day.

The game starts during the day. During the day phase, no players may communicate with one another about the game except in this thread. No private messages, no IM, no talking about it in real life (if some players live close enough to one another for this to be possible), nothing but this thread. Discussion in this thread, however, is permitted at any time during the day phase. Editing your posts is forbidden, so everything you say will be a matter of public record.

Additionally, during the day, players may make accusations against other players. To make it clear whether you are doing so, please use the following phrase, bolded:

I accuse Shivam.

Accusations are not set in stone once made, and may be changed at any time. Newer accusations supersede older ones. (Yes, we discussed private ballots, but the idea still needs more incubation before implementation.)

With the exception of the first day, days will last 72 hours, and end at 10 pm PST (GMT -8). The day phase will end with the lynch of whomever garnered the most votes during the day phase. After the lynch, no more posts can be made. Votes after the day phase has ended will not count.

The lynched player's team will be revealed, but no role information will be provided.


Night lasts 48 hours and ends at 10PM PST. During the night the outlaws meet and choose one player to be killed, and they learn the role of the slain player in the wave after time has been called. No more discussion is permitted after this has been revealed. Citizens with special powers used at night PM the DM (if a player does not it is assumed they take no action that night). No information is revealed about night actions aside from players killed.

Players are expected to post at least once per in-game day. At the 24 hour mark players will be given a warning via PM, if they do not respond by the following morning (in game) they will be killed. If you wish to leave the game contact the DM and a replacement may be arranged.

If you die, you may no longer post in this thread. Feel free to jeer from the peanut gallery =)

---
Role Descriptions
Citizens
Townies - no special powers
The Doctor- Each night, may PM the name of a living player to be protected overnight. If the power is used, the doctor must wait two nights for supplies to return before using the power again. Meaning if the doctor protects a potential victim the first night, he can not protect another until the third night. But if he protects someone who isn't targeted, he may attempt to protect someone else the next night without restriction.
The Newsie - May PM the DM with the name of a particular role, and be told how many of that role are still alive. If they ask for outlaws or townies, they will be given the total number of outlaws or townies still alive, and not any particular role numbers.
The Lone Wolf - Shows up as an Outlaw when investigated. May take matters into their own hands, and shoot any person of their choosing. However, they must wait three nights before shooting anyone else.
The Undertaker - Is PMed every morning with the roles of the people who died the previous day and night.
The Priest - Each night may take confession. PMs the name of a living player and is given their role.
The Deputy - May put any player into the drunk tank overnight. Players in the drunk tank are immune to night kills, but may not use their powers. Outlaws who find themselves in the tank will not be allowed access to the Outlaw Wave for night discussions, but their roles will not be revealed to the deputy. The deputy may not put any one person in the tank more than one time per game.
The Town Drunk - a crazy, unpredictable player who may do any of the following ONCE per game, at any time. If acting during a day phase, their identity will be revealed, and the action will occur within 24 hours--
*Kill one other player. The drunk does not learn anything about the killed player.
*Investigate one living player.
*Prevent all other player deaths for one night. The drunk will die in their place. If the doctor chooses to save the drunk, he will not die, but both powers will be expended.
Change their vote: After voting they may not change their vote. If votes are changed, the drunk will be charged use of the power for the game.

Outlaws
Grizzled Veteran - Appears as a townie when taken to confession
Snitch - Appears as a townie, and cannot participate in evening outlaw discussions. May choose to investigate a living player and determine their role every night.
Snake Oil Salesman - May convert a townie to an outlaw once per game.

shivam
09-17-2010, 02:50 AM
Life was hard, on the edge of civilization. Trying to raise cattle, trying to farm what little you could, trying to raise a family without any support from God or government--all while dodging Indian raids, disease, and droughts. But you tried, damn it. And when that new sheriff came to town, you were certain things were gonna change.

And then he was found face down in a pool of whiskey and blood, and you decided to take things into your own hands. No damn outlaws were gonna take your town away from you. This was gonna end here, once and for all.

You are Townies.
http://www.legendsofamerica.com/photos-oldwest/fightstreet.jpg

As the sunlight filtered in through the morning clouds, the barkeep unlocked the door to his saloon and prepared to set up shop for the day. He was an old, balding man with a thick and bristly mustache, and he'd seen a lot in his life. But nothing prepared him for the sight ahead- The brand new sheriff, barely a week on the job, lying in a pool of his own blood mixed with top shelf whiskey. And scrawled in the sheriff's blood, a message.

"We don't take kindly to strangers trying to tell us how to run our town. It would behoove y'all to remember who runs Thornbush.

--The Diamondback gang"

Grabbing his shotgun from under the bar, the tavern keeper rang the big bell next to his building. There was only one way to get to the bottom of this, and there was gonna be blood and hell to pay once they got there.

IT IS NOW DAY.

Folks, the first day will be longer than all of the rest, mainly because I'm excited to get started.

There are two kinds of people in the world, my friend: Those with a rope around the neck, and the people who have the job of doing the cutting.

Torgo
09-17-2010, 02:53 AM
I accuse-

Nah nah, I jus' playin'. Well gentlemen, we got ourselves a dead sheriff and a few scumbags on the loose. Where shall the day one merry-go-round begin?

Javex
09-17-2010, 02:55 AM
Huh. You know, I never would have guessed our new sherriff would have enough blood in him that his killers could write a couple sentences out with it. Barkeep, you got a...rag, or something?

Also, who wants to kill Umby now, just to get it over with?

(KIDDING KIDDING, PLEASE DON'T TAKE THAT SERIOUSLY).

spineshark
09-17-2010, 04:03 AM
As soon as we don't kill Umby, he's going to be a bad guy. It's that simple.

Merus
09-17-2010, 06:14 AM
You never know, he might end up having freakish instincts so long as he doesn't think his opinion's important, like in M4UD.

Anyway, jetlag's got its tendrils around my face, so I'm just going to wave hello and allow the situation to develop.

JohnB
09-17-2010, 06:32 AM
Well, it looks like the final 22 is a strong cast of players. Seems like Day 1 could be a bit rougher than in earlier matches accordingly. One thing that jumps out at me already is that we've know there's at least 16 townies, and at least 4 outlaws. By my count that leaves us with 2 unknowns floating about. I'll be less anxious the sooner that changes.

Alpha Werewolf
09-17-2010, 07:12 AM
Well, usually I'd post something that seems perfectly fine to me at this stage, and then everybody would pounce on me.

So I won't.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 07:42 AM
Well, usually I'd post something that seems perfectly fine to me at this stage, and then everybody would pounce on me.

So I won't.

Would it help if I accused you anyway? Because I'm seriously thinking about it.

Wheels
09-17-2010, 08:09 AM
Would it help if I accused you anyway? Because I'm seriously thinking about it.

That sounds like something an outlaw would say

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 08:38 AM
That sounds like something an outlaw would say

You know what? BAM. Cheeseburger wearing a cowboy hat.

Your move, dude.

Wheels
09-17-2010, 08:47 AM
You know what? BAM. Cheeseburger wearing a cowboy hat.

Your move, dude.

Cowboy carrots. CHECKMATE.

Destil
09-17-2010, 08:52 AM
Okay, I've read the rules three times and I still can't find what determines the length of day one...

Also, I'm guessing that the 16/4 split (with two people missing) is because shiv wrote this up before accepting Wheels and Umby?

JohnB
09-17-2010, 09:55 AM
I'm guessing that the 16/4 split (with two people missing) is because shiv wrote this up before accepting Wheels and Umby?

That's my thought, too, but regardless of whether or not it is intentional or accidental I'd like to know either way.

Adam
09-17-2010, 10:02 AM
Cowboy carrots. CHECKMATE.

Man, now I wish I had gone with Cowboy Curtis as my avatar.

That's my thought, too, but regardless of whether or not it is intentional or accidental I'd like to know either way.

I think it's 16 townsfolk who could have powers, 4 mafia, and 2 townsfolk with guaranteed powers.

Nodal
09-17-2010, 10:06 AM
Okay, I've read the rules three times and I still can't find what determines the length of day one...

Also, I'm guessing that the 16/4 split (with two people missing) is because shiv wrote this up before accepting Wheels and Umby?

I think we just got an extra couple hours because shivam wanted to throw it up. So I would guess it ends at 10 on the 20th.

Destil
09-17-2010, 10:12 AM
Wild speculation that makes a lot of sense.

Okay, then. Good enough for me.

JohnB
09-17-2010, 10:13 AM
Read it again, bucko. 16 normal folks, 2 specials, and 4 snakes.

Thanks. Your tone is noted, too.

Rai
09-17-2010, 10:18 AM
Man, now I wish I had gone with Cowboy Curtis as my avatar.

Gotcha covered there, hoss.

Tock
09-17-2010, 10:51 AM
Alright, theorycraftin time.

Right now, we're at 18 townies to 4 outlaws. Assumin the worst (we lynch a townie, lone wolf guns down another, Salesman cons a third), I reckon we're staring down 15 to 5 tomorrow. 18 to 4 is pretty comfortable, but it ain't good odds for sniffin out a rat. As always for Day One, it's in the town's best interests to talk smart and vote smarter. Of course, as usual for Day One, we'll probably hang our Doctor. Still, I say we oughta try'n preserve our advantage for once, 'stead of lettin our numbers make us sloppy and stringin up the first feller that looks at us sideways.

Eddie
09-17-2010, 11:13 AM
"Gentlemen."

From the corner of the saloon, a man in a black pours some whiskey into a glass. Around his table there are several seats, with an accompanying shot glass. As he speaks, he tops each glass up.

My name is Eddie, a businessman by nature. As some of you are aware, this town is potentially sitting on one of the largest deposits of crude oil in the state. It is my personal intention to profit handsomely from mother nature's most generous nod to my speculation in the area.

He places the whiskey on the table, and picks up the glass in front of him.

Now while I can appreciate that men can have their differences, my blind eye to their differences begins and ends at the point where it disrupts my bottom line. Some of you boys are looking nervous, looking scared. Looking like a small band of ne'er-do-wells is gonna take everything away from you that you worked hard for. I share your concern. Operation like killing a sheriff, well, that burns me.

I suggest we assume the worst. I am proceeding under the assumption that we've got both a double-crossing maggot (Snitch) and a man who has more money than brains (A Snake-Oil Salesmen). Now, we've got numbers boys. It's time we ain't got.

- Eddie

Nodal
09-17-2010, 11:20 AM
Can't say as I disagree with you there. Question on my mind is, if we do have a snitchin' snake around these parts, is he one o' the four, or have we already got whatcha might call a fifth column?

This is an excellent question. It appears to me that they count as an Outlaw and we were told there are 4 Outlaws.

Eddie
09-17-2010, 11:22 AM
Can't say as I disagree with you there. Question on my mind is, if we do have a snitchin' snake around these parts, is he one o' the four, or have we already got whatcha might call a fifth column?

I think we can assume he's already thrown in with the rest of the Diamondbacks. I wonder what kind of man he is tho, the kind that tries to pawn his junk on the first man he lays eyes on, or the kind that is willing to sit back and look for a mark.

- Eddie

Eddie
09-17-2010, 11:26 AM
For clarification:

I think what Nich is saying is that there are 4 outlaws, of which up to three of them can be special roles). One of which could be the Snake-Oil Salesman.

Although I'm curious if perhaps two outlaws (or townies) could be assigned the exact same role?

- Eddie

Destil
09-17-2010, 11:28 AM
This is an excellent question. It appears to me that they count as an Outlaw and we were told there are 4 Outlaws.

I suspect this is the case as well.

However, I'm a bit of a pessimist. I, for one, am going to be assuming that they have up to two Snake Oil Salesmen. Which would put us as bad off as 14/6 come mornin'.

At the same time, I reckon we should take last game to heart. Everyone was going pretty crazy when the game should have ended by public information, and I think that it distracted the citizens a bit on the final few days. And it could have lasted another day in that state if Byron had been lynched.

For those of us with some power to help our fellows knowing where the game stands is important, but sidtracking it too far with such discussion is sort of a waste. If we're still in it it's because we have a job that needs doing, and let's not forget that.

Destil
09-17-2010, 11:30 AM
For clarification:

I think what Nich is saying is that there are 4 outlaws, of which up to three of them can be special roles). One of which could be the Snake-Oil Salesman.

Although I'm curious if perhaps two outlaws (or townies) could be assigned the exact same role?

- Eddie

I tried rolling dice to assign roles in M5, and the first result was 2 succubi. Then I stopped rolling dice. (I didn't use that setup because the numbers wouldn't have allowed it to be very fair, and it was a little close to 'the thing' for my liking. Actually having two of X I think is a possibility we should consider.)

shivam
09-17-2010, 11:32 AM
Okay, I've read the rules three times and I still can't find what determines the length of day one...

Also, I'm guessing that the 16/4 split (with two people missing) is because shiv wrote this up before accepting Wheels and Umby?

day 1 ends Monday at 10pm PST.

the 16/4 split is actually an 18/4 split. the two guaranteed roles plus 16 potentials, and 4 outlaws.

shivam
09-17-2010, 11:43 AM
I have been asked many times, so i will make an official clarification-- for purposes of classification, Snitch is a townie role. If there is a snitch, he's one of you guys, not one of the outlaws. There may be duplicate roles as well. Matchstick may also be a pony.

Also, The deputy can only use his power during the day cycle. Once night falls, the deputy may not imprison anyone. It makes it too difficult to manage the wave situation otherwise. Also, the deputy cannot imprison himself.

shivam
09-17-2010, 12:02 PM
Ok, reclarification, and final one before this gets crazy theorycrafting. The Snitch wins when the mafia wins. The snitch loses when the mafia loses. This means that the snitch, if there is one, or two, or 10, has to die for the town to win.

Nodal
09-17-2010, 12:16 PM
Thanks for the knowledge hombre.

Kylie
09-17-2010, 12:41 PM
I'm a bit wary of time-keepers here, fellas. Things got crazy when the numbers didn't work last time, and we liked that just fine. All that matters to us right-thinkin' folk is that we're still alive. We can crunch it out however we like but it sure did rile people up a bunch, and people what're riled up 're liable to make some REAL bad decisions.

That's the reason I read out the times to start with -- to start workin' folks up. People get tetchy when they know they got limited days on this earth.

dtsund
09-17-2010, 12:41 PM
Ah'd be astonished if we didn't have a Snake Oil Salesman. C'mon, fellas, there'd only be four of them to the 18 of us otherwise. And that's all the theorycraftin' Ah got right now.

On that note, since every one of ya's just postin' nonsense about when the day ends as though you can't see the durn sun, I'm goin' to accuse JohnB to get things goin'. Somethin' about him's makin' me suspicious.

McClain
09-17-2010, 12:45 PM
Well, this here's a fine mess we've gotten ourselves into. Day 1 is always a shot in the dark, so to speak, so let's do our best to make sure that shot's not in our foot this time, okay?

We've got a lot of townfolks and a lot of potential roles. That's good! Hopefully folks can make the most of them. The snakes are small in numbers, but could have some powerful roles themselves. Our numbers advantage could vanish in a hurry.

How do we want to go about figuring out who to string up first?

I'm goin' to accuse JohnB to get things goin'. Somethin' about him's makin' me suspicious.

Anything particular, or just goin' with yer gut?

Nodal
09-17-2010, 12:47 PM
JohnB strikes me as Brickroad Jr. And I got burned enough last game to make me wary.

Adam
09-17-2010, 12:50 PM
So if I read that correctly, we could be at 17/5, or even 16/6, if we have multiple Snitches. I trust this means that if there are Snitches, the Diamondbacks don't know who they are. Maybe if we're lucky, they'll choose to kill a Snitch or two like the Mafia did last game.

I don't think that this will change much for the first few days, since even if the Snitch is able to scan one of our power roles, he will not be able to get that information to the Diamondbacks unless he can work out a way of signaling them (and we saw how well that works).

If we have a Newsie, he's going to be the only one who knows how many Diamondbacks and Diamondback sympathizers we have out there until he outs himself. Four gangmembers, and unknown number of Snitches, and possibly 1 more turncoat if they have a Snake-oil Salesman.

Here's hoping we don't lynch him before he can even get the information.

Tock
09-17-2010, 12:50 PM
Destil: I'd be surprised if we had two Snake Oil Salesmen. Two Snakes and a Snitch mean that the game could potentially end tonight.

Byron: I'm wary myself of people who aren't counting the black hats, since sitting around whistlin' Dixie is how we got nabbed by surprise in M3. Ain't sayin' that folks should get riled, just that they oughta keep their eyes wide open.

Anyhow, now that I know how the Snitch works, and assumin' bad luck on our part, I'll revise my earlier numbers and say we're lookin' at 17 cowboys to 5 outlaws. Means tomorrow might be as low as 14-6. Means to me that anyone lookin' to just off someone for a laugh ain't workin' in the town's best interests.

Kylie
09-17-2010, 12:55 PM
Mister Tock, sir, we got burned in M3 'cause we COULDN'TA counted the black hats. And beggin' your pardon, but this ain't Mafia 3. We KNOW what we're up against. They don't got the same kinda numbers advantage they had then. And we don't need to make no hasty decisions. That's what got us in trouble in... well, was there a time when that DIDN'T get us in trouble, sir?

Tock
09-17-2010, 01:02 PM
Mister Tock, sir, we got burned in M3 'cause we COULDN'TA counted the black hats. And beggin' your pardon, but this ain't Mafia 3. We KNOW what we're up against. They don't got the same kinda numbers advantage they had then. And we don't need to make no hasty decisions. That's what got us in trouble in... well, was there a time when that DIDN'T get us in trouble, sir?

Well, to speak plain, damn near every town strategy has backfired on us one time or another. Seems you and me are agreed that whatever the score, townsfolk oughta play a little smarter Day One than we have in the past.

JohnB
09-17-2010, 01:43 PM
JohnB strikes me as Brickroad Jr. And I got burned enough last game to make me wary.

Man, I do not deserve to be typecast, especially after only having played in one previous game. What I can say right now is that I think you got burned because you had a hard-on for lynching the vigilante for most of M5. Maybe you should work on refining your detective skills before slinging around accusations so soon after your fantastic sleuthing last outing. For my part, there's been hardly anything to go on right now since the day is so young. Still, I know that 1) Nodal has been quite a chatty cathy thus far (nervous about something?), and 2) that he has accused an innocent man. Why might he do that? I accuse Nodal.

Nodal
09-17-2010, 01:44 PM
Man, I do not deserve to be typecast, especially after only having played in one previous game. What I can say right now is that I think you got burned because you had a hard-on for lynching the vigilante for most of M5. Maybe you should work on refining your detective skills before slinging around accusations so soon after your fantastic sleuthing last outing. For my part, there's been hardly anything to go on right now since the day is so young. Still, I know that 1) Nodal has been quite a chatty cathy thus far (nervous about something?), and 2) that he has accused an innocent man. Why might he do that? I accuse Nodal.

Bro I specifically didn't accuse you. Do you even read what people are saying?

JohnB
09-17-2010, 01:53 PM
Jesus Christ. Nodal, I'm so sorry, I quoted the wrong post/player. I retract my vote for Nodal. What an embarrassment, gaffe, rookie mistake, et al.

Ah'd be astonished if we didn't have a Snake Oil Salesman. C'mon, fellas, there'd only be four of them to the 18 of us otherwise. And that's all the theorycraftin' Ah got right now.

On that note, since every one of ya's just postin' nonsense about when the day ends as though you can't see the durn sun, I'm goin' to accuse JohnB to get things goin'. Somethin' about him's makin' me suspicious.

Okay, so dtsund's made one post, and what do we know? He thinks that the rules clarifications talk has been a waste of time even though it's an extended day & it's the first frigging day, so there's naturally going to be more questions about the ruleset than at other times. Also, hell, he finds me suspicious without bothering to give a single reason why, launching the first accusation of the day. I must reply in turn, and I've just given you my reasoning: I accuse dtsund.

Eddie
09-17-2010, 02:00 PM
Ah'd be astonished if we didn't have a Snake Oil Salesman. C'mon, fellas, there'd only be four of them to the 18 of us otherwise. And that's all the theorycraftin' Ah got right now.

Now don't be getting ahead of yerself. Just because them Diamondbacks may be low on numbers, doesn't mean they don't represent a credible threat. The fewer of them there are, the more we can run ourselves in circles accusing each other of horse-theft while they slowly manipulate things. Worse, the more innocent men we end up lynching, the bigger the effect on the mind for all us upstanding folk.

I was involved in a dust-up of this nature, and have heard enough similar tales, that it strikes me that we can't be quick to jump on what we eye as foul ups. Too often have I heard of an innocent man being hanged because he stuck his neck out. Well I'm here to tell you that there ain't nothing wrong with stick yer neck out, what's wrong is assuming them Diamondbacks are going to not be on the dodge. They'll have every reason to hole up and play it low.

Let's use our numbers for good. We have no reason to overact and wildly jump all over the first whiff of trouble we smell. Keep yer hat on, have a drink.

- Eddie

namelessentity
09-17-2010, 02:02 PM
Anyhow, now that I know how the Snitch works, and assumin' bad luck on our part, I'll revise my earlier numbers and say we're lookin' at 17 cowboys to 5 outlaws. Means tomorrow might be as low as 14-6. Means to me that anyone lookin' to just off someone for a laugh ain't workin' in the town's best interests.

You missed the lone star kill I think. Worst case, if we lynch a townie, the lone star kills a townie, and they convert someone (and of course they will kill a townie), that means we lose 4 people, or in other words start tomorrow with 13-6

Doing incorrect maths, thats very fiendish of you... (what, we're in the wild west now, got to shift character... um, partner?)

Kylie
09-17-2010, 02:04 PM
Well, to speak plain, damn near every town strategy has backfired on us one time or another. Seems you and me are agreed that whatever the score, townsfolk oughta play a little smarter Day One than we have in the past.

I see you sayin' we's agreed, sir, but I'm 'fraid I don't remember signin' nothin'.

Tock
09-17-2010, 02:32 PM
You missed the lone star kill I think. Worst case, if we lynch a townie, the lone star kills a townie, and they convert someone (and of course they will kill a townie), that means we lose 4 people, or in other words start tomorrow with 13-6

Doing incorrect maths, thats very fiendish of you... (what, we're in the wild west now, got to shift character... um, partner?)

Check yer own numbers, son. I'm talkin' 4 Diamondbacks and 1 rat Snitch at the outset, meanin' 17 townies. We hang some clean sap today, that's 16. Lone Wolf guns another, we're at 15. Salesman snakes a third, and the sun rises on 14 white hats to 6 black hats. Already said I ain't gonna bother thinkin' duplicate Snitches or Snakes for now, though the possibility's there.

I see you sayin' we's agreed, sir, but I'm 'fraid I don't remember signin' nothin'.

Slow up, hoss. Ain't no reason to be tellin' a body not to make a hasty decision, then start pokin' him.

dtsund
09-17-2010, 02:32 PM
Now, now, I said I only wanted to accuse you to get things going; someone had to make the first accusation, and I decided to do it early to get discussion going. It just happened to be against you.

I don't think rules clarification is a waste of time at all. It's just that's basically all that had been going on up to that point. Game has to start sometime, ber...pardner, and I don't really need a reason to make the first accusation on the first day. But the manner of your response (vehement denial, followed by suggestion that I must be either stupid or guilty) has made me somewhat disinclined to change my accusation.

namelessentity
09-17-2010, 02:36 PM
Check yer own numbers, son. I'm talkin' 4 Diamondbacks and 1 rat Snitch at the outset, meanin' 17 townies. We hang some clean sap today, that's 16. Lone Wolf guns another, we're at 15. Salesman snakes a third, and the sun rises on 14 white hats to 6 black hats. Already said I ain't gonna bother thinkin' duplicate Snitches or Snakes for now, though the possibility's there.

Why don't the outlaws night kill anybody? Is there a change in the rules?

Tock
09-17-2010, 02:40 PM
Why don't the outlaws night kill anybody? Is there a change in the rules?

Shit, I was so preoccupied with Western talk that I forgot about the mafia kill.

Dizzy
09-17-2010, 02:44 PM
Guys, I highly doubt I will speaking like a cowboy for the duration of the game.

Man, first days always suck in Mafia and now shivam decides he wants a Big Weekend opening like some car dealership.

shivam
09-17-2010, 02:47 PM
sorry dude, i'm just hella busy this weekend, what with my cousin giving birth this morning, and my mom heading off to the himalayas on monday. i figured i'd just open the door right off and get things started while i could.

CURRENT VOTES

JohnB
dtsund

Nodal
JohnB

dtsund
JohnB

Eddie
09-17-2010, 02:48 PM
Guys, I highly doubt I will speaking like a cowboy for the duration of the game.

I think we should choose who to lynch on day one based on who is the least-authentic cowboy.[/sarcasm]

- Eddie

Wheels
09-17-2010, 02:54 PM
Now, now, I said I only wanted to accuse you to get things going; someone had to make the first accusation, and I decided to do it early to get discussion going. It just happened to be against you.


Sounds like ye be wanted us to get all paranoid like. I don't trust you partner.

I accuse dtsund

JohnB
09-17-2010, 03:02 PM
I don't really need a reason to make the first accusation on the first day. But the manner of your response (vehement denial, followed by suggestion that I must be either stupid or guilty) has made me somewhat disinclined to change my accusation.

Now, now. I only insinuated that you were stupid. I said that you were guilty.

Eddie
09-17-2010, 03:03 PM
Sounds like ye be wanted us to get all paranoid like. I don't trust you partner.

I accuse dtsund

Gentlemen, gentlemen. Sit down, have a drink. It's this kind of play that makes me as nervous as the Diamondbacks do.

Stop and ask yourself, if you were part of those rotten outlaws, would you make the lead-off accusation? Heck no, you'd slink into the background and let someone else make the first move.

I'm not saying dtsund is an angel, I'm just sayin' that it would be a bold move to make the first move if he was an outlaw. A very bold move, one that makes me inclined to believe he's on the right saw of the law.

I mean, if the law wasn't a corpse on the floor at the moment.

- Eddie

dtsund
09-17-2010, 03:08 PM
Sounds like ye be wanted us to get all paranoid like. I don't trust you partner.

The moment we stop being paranoid, we friggin' lose. So yes, I want you all to be paranoid.

Wheels
09-17-2010, 03:15 PM
Well sir, you've got me convinced.

I accuse JohnB instead

Kylie
09-17-2010, 03:21 PM
The moment we stop being paranoid, we friggin' lose. So yes, I want you all to be paranoid.

Well, now, I'm no doctor but I am a man of letters, and it says here in this text that paranoia HAPPENS to be characterized by undue, irrational, or extreme fear or distrust.

Climate like that could lead to a lot of haste, and not a lot of thought.

Adam
09-17-2010, 03:25 PM
Well sir, you've got me convinced.

I accuse JohnB instead

You know, not every bandwagon needs Wheels.

Wheels
09-17-2010, 03:30 PM
You know, not every bandwagon needs Wheels.

Listen son, I aint climbin on no bandwagon, them folk simply are good at convincing. Don't make me roll on down your way now!

dtsund
09-17-2010, 03:32 PM
Well, now, I'm no doctor but I am a man of letters, and it says here in this text that paranoia HAPPENS to be characterized by undue, irrational, or extreme fear or distrust.

Climate like that could lead to a lot of haste, and not a lot of thought.

Okay, I'll amend that.

The moment we start trusting each other too much, we lose, is what I mean.

namelessentity
09-17-2010, 03:33 PM
You know, not every bandwagon needs Wheels.

You know, there is a special level of hell for varmin who make olde timey puns like that.

While I'm not going to jump on stringing up JohnB, I would like an explanation for the hastey, overly defensive revenge vote for Nodal. If you didn't read carefully enough to notice he didn't accuse you, you couldn't possibly have had a good enough reason to accuse him back.

I fear the metagaming is already buried too deep in us to not use it, but I would like to point out that people play differently between games. They learn what works and what doesn't work, they switch roles, and they even switch sides. You can't just be starting to accuse people just because you hold a grudge from previously. That said, ignoring meta information would be a quick way to the outlaws owning this town, so use your discretion.

Wheels
09-17-2010, 03:45 PM
Now I realize no one asked me, but less'n somethin' changes, I reckon I'll be throwin' my vote Wheels' way. He's new blood, and maybe he don't cotton to the way things work around here, which'll work in our favor if the man's crooked. I figure the way he's actin', if he turns up Outlaw, we can prob'ly breathe easier 'round dtsund and JohnB both. Ain't no one else yet we kin squeeze that much information out of a single lynch, so hell, why not?

I accuse Wheels.

Well I may be new blood, but I smell a rat in one them two is all.

Umby
09-17-2010, 04:01 PM
Hey, pardners, I know there aren't any Synagogues out west or anything, but I will be at one for Yom Kippur for most of tonight and tomorrow, so uh, yeah.

In other news, we shouldn't be so quick to votes, now! Remember what happened in M5, M4U, heck, even M3 when we did that. Bide our time, and if we get clues, we get clues. If we don't, well, then we bandwagon and make a poor decision.

Just don't get your pistols in a bunch and shoot a bunch of accusations.

McClain
09-17-2010, 04:10 PM
And I was just going to ask where Umby was. Is that everyone accounted for?

I think JohnB is just being JohnB. He's going to try to provoke folks. Not to say that he's clean for sure, but I don't see any reason to go lynching him yet.

Destil
09-17-2010, 04:16 PM
We haven't heard from widdershins yet. Otherwise, that's everyone.

Kylie
09-17-2010, 04:19 PM
If Wheels is new blood, that explains tenderfoot mistakes, walkin' round town sneering at dangerous people all tough-like. If he's an outlaw, he ain't had time to make proper unravellin' mistakes.

An' it's awful early to talk about learnin' from lynches. We got ourselves another three days, here. Might could be a man says somethin' what betrays more sinister intentions, ties him inta the rest o' his gang little tighter. Ain't no sense in talkin' like today's over - you do that, nobody else'll talk, and this saloon'll be too damn quiet by half.

What your huckleberry here's said, it don't amount to much but some clumsiness, 'less you think he's so dumb as t'out himself fast as he can.

'Cause, you see, we hang this man an' he's a citizen, we've just cast aspersions upon three different people, none of whom'll deserve it. Well, maybe one o' whom.

Nodal
09-17-2010, 04:20 PM
Now I realize no one asked me, but less'n somethin' changes, I reckon I'll be throwin' my vote Wheels' way. He's new blood, and maybe he don't cotton to the way things work around here, which'll work in our favor if the man's crooked. I figure the way he's actin', if he turns up Outlaw, we can prob'ly breathe easier 'round dtsund and JohnB both. Ain't no one else yet we kin squeeze that much information out of a single lynch, so hell, why not?

I accuse Wheels.

Now pardner there's somethin' I'm not reckonin about this here argument. If Wheels is one o' them outlaws then sure we've got ourselves a couple of stand-up folks. But if he turns out to be innocent we're back where we started less a couple of gents.

JohnB
09-17-2010, 04:20 PM
While I'm not going to jump on stringing up JohnB, I would like an explanation for the hastey, overly defensive revenge vote for Nodal. If you didn't read carefully enough to notice he didn't accuse you, you couldn't possibly have had a good enough reason to accuse him back.


Here's what happened, and I'm still embarrassed as hell about it: I'm posting from work on a late lunch break, and I'm just about to reply to post after having the first accusation tossed my way. I see this and think WTF, so my response is to post back. Well, a colleague comes in and in a hurry I click quote post, but it's (obviously now) on the wrong one. I finish my conversation and come back to the post reply page some time later. I see that the post I've quote is (wrongly) from Nodal, and so I start looking at his small body of work and try to figure out why he's fingering me first (I looked for dirt on nodal because in Mafia the best defense is a good offense). I do not look carefully at the quoted post and I didn't preview my reply since I'm at the end of my lunch break and need to get ready for my next patient, and so I miss the fact that there's no bolded accusation therein. Within a minute I look like an idiot. And that, sirs, is a true (and stupid) story.

Dizzy
09-17-2010, 04:28 PM
And that, sirs, is a true (and stupid) story.

It was also tedious to read. Maybe you should die.

Kylie
09-17-2010, 04:32 PM
Now look, mister, I may not have had much book learnin', but if ya think I couldn't figure out on my own that we don't learn much from lynchin' an honest man, I don't know what to tell ya. Figured it'd be implied in the theory.

Well, yes, sir, it might be, but what you're sellin' us is that we learn lots from a hangin'. Lest we hang a citizen, and we learn nothin' t'all, an' lose a smart feller ta boot.

That don't sound like a very good deal to me.

Tock
09-17-2010, 04:33 PM
It was also tedious to read. Maybe you should die.

Shoot, I sure do love a Mafia round with ol' Dizzy.

spineshark
09-17-2010, 04:33 PM
I don't really see why Wheels would stick himself out there if he thought he had something to lose. I'm not at all convinced of his honesty, of course, but in most of the prior games the Mafia tended to wait for the citizens to build up against each other before tilting the scale. It looks a bit safer than setting yourself up to be the person who got a townie killed.

Javex
09-17-2010, 04:45 PM
Good Lord, Wheels - it's like you painted a sign on yourself sayin' "PAY ATTENTION TO ME". Well, now I am, although I'm more inclined to believe it's nerves over ill intent that's got you acting out.

Remember, boys, your instincts will guide us through these dark days.

Unless you're Brickroad or Nodal. Then don't go with your instincts.

(I love you both).

JohnB
09-17-2010, 05:01 PM
It was also tedious to read.

That may or may not have been intentional.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 05:33 PM
That's the reason I read out the times to start with -- to start workin' folks up. People get tetchy when they know they got limited days on this earth.

I want to kill you, Byron. I want to kill you so hard my balls sag heavy and low with the desire. I don't think that's at all unexpected, or out of line. I've got sick Byron-shaped burn marks from three games now. (Okay, one was self-inflicted. I'm still blaming you.)

Unless the gamestate changes considerably, I'm going to accuse Byron tomorrow and let the accusation stand.

It was also tedious to read. Maybe you should die.

But damn have I missed Dizzy.

Also I'm only going to do cowboy-speak if you guys let me be Al Swearengen. How does everyone feel about being called a "cocksucker" every 12 seconds?

Let's see... what else is going on.

Re: Nodal. He isn't gunning for my shit, which is weird. You think I'm innocent this time, son? Where's your sack?

Re: Alpha. I figured he was the worst player last game, and he was. We can't afford to lynch a single townie, but if we had to take a shot in the dark it might as well be him. There's no way he'd be so clueless as to go twice to the grave as our inspector, except out of pure spite. (Which I wouldn't put past him, honestly.) While he's our safe(ish) choice, I still think Byron's more dangerous.

Re: Wheels. It's new player jitters, is my bet. Either that or he's Umby Jr. Speaking of...

Re: Umby. Hi Umby! You're Umby! =D

Nodal
09-17-2010, 05:36 PM
Re: Nodal. He isn't gunning for my shit, which is weird. You think I'm innocent this time, son? Where's your sack?


Eh, you feel exactly the same to me as last game where you were innocent. I don't think you're guilty right now, I just think your Mafia strategies favor the Mafia.

McClain
09-17-2010, 05:41 PM
How does everyone feel about being called a "cocksucker" every 12 seconds?


I'm all for it!

cocksucker

Kylie
09-17-2010, 06:29 PM
I've got sick Byron-shaped burn marks from three games now. (Okay, one was self-inflicted. I'm still blaming him.)



That's just my brand, pardner.

dtsund
09-17-2010, 06:40 PM
That's just my brand, pardner.

This bold renegade
carves a B with his blade,
a B that stands for Byron.

Eddie
09-17-2010, 06:41 PM
That's just my brand, pardner.

See, I was going to maybe say something about letting bygones be bygones and maybe Brick shouldn't hold his past grudge against Byron, but you know, Byron's kind of asking for it.

- Eddie

JohnB
09-17-2010, 06:42 PM
This bold renegade
carves a B with his blade,
a B that stands for Byron.

I hear he also keeps Brick's testicles on the mantle over his fireplace.

Javex
09-17-2010, 06:48 PM
Byron's no worse than any other shady scumbag we've got hangin' around these parts.

So, I'm totally down for hanging him from a tree, eventually. Probably not today, unless no better option reveals itself.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 07:06 PM
See, I was going to maybe say something about letting bygones be bygones and maybe Brick shouldn't hold his past grudge against Byron, but you know, Byron's kind of asking for it.

- Eddie

It's not that I have a grudge against Byron. It's that nobody ever catches Byron. Ever. If he's a bad guy, he won't be caught. He'll laugh all the way to the end and see us all hanged. Again.

If I have a grudge against anyone it's Alpha.

Merus
09-17-2010, 07:32 PM
Stop and ask yourself, if you were part of those rotten outlaws, would you make the lead-off accusation?

Gen'rally, they're goin' to be coming out of the woodwork right about now. Some folks have made some noise, so now they can push their agenda without some wiseacre flippin' their words back in their face.

So, great work there, guys.

It's that nobody ever catches Byron. Ever. If he's a bad guy, he won't be caught. He'll laugh all the way to the end and see us all hanged. Again.

Wasn't Byron mafia in M2? I think, if he's an outlaw, we'll catch him so long as we don't leave it up to you.

I'm tempted to just vote Brickroad because everyone wants to see that, but I need something to do on day 3.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 07:36 PM
I got him pretty good in M2W.

Yeah, because you were the inspector.

Merus
09-17-2010, 07:40 PM
The moment we stop being paranoid, we friggin' lose. So yes, I want you all to be paranoid.

I want to point out that paranoia makes people a lot easier to manipulate for the outlaws. It's how we won M3 - all we had to do was suggest people and the townies ran off and hung people all by themselves.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 07:41 PM
I want to point out that paranoia makes people a lot easier to manipulate for the outlaws. It's how we won M3 - all we had to do was suggest people and bus Brickroad and the townies ran off and hung people all by themselves.

Merus
09-17-2010, 07:43 PM
Yeah, because you were the inspector.

So? Your argument, essentially, is that Byron's good at the game and you can't read him, so therefore he should die. Thankfully, this game you don't have to read people, because frankly you're kind of shit at it and we've got people playing that can do it and are inclined to speak up and drive agendas, namely Nich and I.

Incidentally this will probably be a little painful if one of us is an outlaw.

Merus
09-17-2010, 07:50 PM
waaaaaaaaaaah I died in M3

You bussed yourself, dude. It was going to happen sooner or later, we just rode it hard so we'd have some cover.

But anyway! If I'm going to put a vote down today, it's going to be for the people that jumped in late to the voting party. It's lunchtime and I have things to do, so I'll come back and make a decision whether it's likely that any outlaws jumped into the fray.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 07:57 PM
So? Your argument, essentially, is that Byron's good at the game and you can't read him, so therefore he should die. Thankfully, this game you don't have to read people, because frankly you're kind of shit at it and we've got people playing that can do it and are inclined to speak up and drive agendas, namely Nich and I.

I don't know. I tried this out in both M4 and M5 and it didn't work. In M4 I was all about participating as little as possible so as not to screw up anyone else's detective work, and I got yelled at for "not playing". In M5 I managed to land in the one and only confirmed townie position, so it fell to me to pick targets whether I liked it or not. Nobody else was willing to put their dick out in any case.

Shitty detective or no, if I don't throw accusations at the wall I'm going to catch hell for it. If you want me to sit back so you and Nich can work your magic, well okay, I'm willing to cool out on you two for maybe a day or so.

Neither of you have caught Byron with your detective work, though. Nich caught him through the magic of inspection, and catching him wasn't an issue for either of you in M3. I think you're overestimating yourself, or underestimating Byron, or both.

He's smarter than you, Merus.

Destil
09-17-2010, 08:01 PM
I've got my eye pretty close on Byron, because I watched him all last game. People were calling his bluffs to his face and somehow no one ever had the will to actually get a vote going against him.

At the same time he found Brick, Merus and myself very quickly in M3, and none of that was according to our evil plan. I really don't want to off the guy just because at this point.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 08:07 PM
At the same time he found Brick, Merus and myself very quickly in M3, and none of that was according to our evil plan. I really don't want to off the guy just because at this point.

This is the trap I fell into in M5. I kept saying, "I really feel like we should lynch Byron, but I don't have a solid case against him. I'll wait until tomorrow and see if something happens."

I said that to myself every single day. Sometimes I said it out loud in the thread. And eventually something did happen. Something fucking happened, all right.

I'm pretty convinced that we'll never have good cause to lynch Byron. We either punch it or we roll the dice on him.

That, or we take his confession and find out for sure. But even then we can't know for sure. Since we may have one or both turncoat roles in play, even a confirmed priest telling the truth could be misleading.

Merus
09-17-2010, 08:13 PM
I don't know. I tried this out in both M4 and M5 and it didn't work. In M4 I was all about participating as little as possible so as not to screw up anyone else's detective work, and I got yelled at for "not playing". In M5 I managed to land in the one and only confirmed townie position, so it fell to me to pick targets whether I liked it or not. Nobody else was willing to put their dick out in any case.

That's probably more to do with your sterling personality than anything. I mean, who else can turn saying "Byron is a lot smarter than anyone gives him credit for" into "Byron is better than you"? It's not surprising that everyone assumes you're just being a cock instead of following a specific strategy, because, well, you're usually being a cock.

I didn't follow M5 closely, but if what Destil says is true people can tell things are up with Byron, which means he is not the super-amazing mafia player you fear he is. He can be caught. It's up to us to actually use the information we have.

Javex
09-17-2010, 08:18 PM
Let's not forget that on THE FINAL DAY in Sigil, a few of us were ready to lynch Byron...

But SOMEBODY, very vocally, was not.

Adam
09-17-2010, 08:23 PM
I'm not entirely sure that we can have a confirmed Priest in this game. There are three roles in this game that can confirm someone else's role. One is the priest himself, so that's no use. I'm almost positive we have a Snitch, given the ratio of Snakes vs. townspeople. The Snitch will be able to front himself as a Priest, since he also can identify roles. The saving grace here is that the Diamondbacks won't be able to tell whether or not a "confirmed Priest" is the Priest or the Snitch.

The wrinkle here is that we may also have a Town Drunk. A Drunk may use a role confirmation as his one-time power, so if someone outs himself as a Priest, the Drunk can use that as his shot to confirm whether they are Priest or Snitch. Since the Drunk is outed as such when he uses the power (assuming it's done during the day for the following reason), we'll be able to trust whatever information he divulges. Even better, once he does out himself, we'll have either one or two (assuming his Priest is a real Priest) confirmed clean citizens.

If we don't have a Town Drunk, then our Priest is going to have to decide how much damage a lying Snitch can do before he has to out himself.

namelessentity
09-17-2010, 08:28 PM
That's probably more to do with your sterling personality than anything. I mean, who else can turn saying "Byron is a lot smarter than anyone gives him credit for" into "Byron is better than you"? It's not surprising that everyone assumes you're just being a cock instead of following a specific strategy, because, well, you're usually being a cock.

I didn't follow M5 closely, but if what Destil says is true people can tell things are up with Byron, which means he is not the super-amazing mafia player you fear he is. He can be caught. It's up to us to actually use the information we have.

Byron was the "fiend that turned up clean" role, so he was being very loud and suspicious so that when we lynched him we would all be confused, but then he couldn't get lynched and just ended up ruling the game. So don't think we have the ability to know when he is evil and just don't act, more like you could slap us in the face with the knowledge and we still won't do anything with it

McClain
09-17-2010, 08:36 PM
Ay-yi-yi. Call me when you guys start playing M6 again.

But Nich, the past is prologue, and time is like a river.

BUT THE FUTURE REFUSED TO CHANGE!

Merus
09-17-2010, 08:37 PM
Byron was the "fiend that turned up clean" role, so he was being very loud and suspicious so that when we lynched him we would all be confused, but then he couldn't get lynched and just ended up ruling the game. So don't think we have the ability to know when he is evil and just don't act, more like you could slap us in the face with the knowledge and we still won't do anything with it
Yes, and he isn't in that role this game, so that's conveniently not our problem.

Christ. I am tempted to vote for you just so you won't make arguments like that again, unless you were mafia too in M5 in which case this has kind of become a post-mortem of a game I didn't play, and if so see 'christ' above.

Javex
09-17-2010, 08:38 PM
Ay-yi-yi. Call me when you guys start playing M6 again.

Let's hang everyone who doesn't have appropriate western gear.

HOW'S THAT?!

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 08:41 PM
That's probably more to do with your sterling personality than anything. I mean, who else can turn saying "Byron is a lot smarter than anyone gives him credit for" into "Byron is better than you"? It's not surprising that everyone assumes you're just being a cock instead of following a specific strategy, because, well, you're usually being a cock.

I didn't say he's better than you. I said he's smarter than you. And he is.

Look, this is going to go one of two ways. Either you and Nich will shove me aside and run the game like you want, and eventually drum up something on Byron, and say "Let's get him!" And he's an outlaw! Yay! But then we may as well just have lynched him on Day One.

Or, you two will come on every day and say "Byron hasn't done anything suspicious yet!" And we never lynch him. Which just proves my theory that you will not catch him.

If we're eventually going to be in a position where we need to lynch Byron because we don't have anything on him, I'd just like to admit that possibility and then get it over with on Day One, where at least there isn't anything laying around to sour the pot.

I didn't follow M5 closely, but if what Destil says is true people can tell things are up with Byron, which means he is not the super-amazing mafia player you fear he is. He can be caught. It's up to us to actually use the information we have.

I don't buy it. Everyone gets suspicious of everyone at some point in the game. You're selectively forgetting all the times we've picked up major clues, acted on them, and turned out to be wrong. Should I throw dwolfe back in your face?

Let's not forget that on THE FINAL DAY in Sigil, a few of us were ready to lynch Byron...

But SOMEBODY, very vocally, was not.

Yeah: Nodal.

Because everyone was just waiting for me to pick a target, and I'm bad at picking targets, I picked the most suspicious guy. Who, in turn, did nothing to defend himself, which only confirmed those suspicions.

Again, if you guys don't want me to play, just say so. I will step back and let you detective-work your little asses off, and content myself with posting a cheeseburger a day to fulfill the minimum requirements. But again, I repeat (for like the thirtieth time now, across multiple threads): that was my exact strategy in M4, and absolutely everyone told me I was an idiot for trying it.

Adam
09-17-2010, 08:51 PM
Again, if you guys don't want me to play, just say so. I will step back and let you detective-work your little asses off, and content myself with posting a cheeseburger a day to fulfill the minimum requirements. But again, I repeat (for like the thirtieth time now, across multiple threads): that was my exact strategy in M4, and absolutely everyone told me I was an idiot for trying it.

If all you've got is Byron fever, then we may as well have you on cheeseburger duty. You're not doing much for us right now, and it appears unless we choose to appease you, you're not even going to try to look at anyone else.

The way I see it, if you're one of us, then we may as well let you sit there and scribble out burgers just to keep our numbers up. If you're a Diamondback, it's much better for us if you give up.

Javex
09-17-2010, 08:55 PM
Yeah: Nodal.

I...

Okay, point taken. Damn!

So, are we trying to say that there's no way that the alpha personalities (Brick, Merus, Nich, Byron, anyone else I might be missing) of this game will manage to work together for the good of the town? You monsters. Admittedly, it's unlikely that one of them isn't Outlaw, but still. As somebody else pointed out, this town has a STACKED roster of inherently smart people, so it'd be nice if we could use that to our advantage.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 08:58 PM
This is the weirdest logic. It takes as its premise the foregone conclusion that Byron is an outlaw and then says "Either I'm right and you won't listen to my non-case against him, or I'm right and you will."

Um, no, the logic is that if Byron's and outlaw he's too good to leave clues, and if he's not an outlaw then he's just naturally not going to leave clues. Either way there will be no clues, and the only suspicions against him can be easily batted away. Which is precisely what happened in M4 and M5.

I just don't want to see history repeat itself.

I could apply this logic to literally anyone in the game, including you.

Yeah, but that'd be dumb, because I'm easy to catch. Leave me and Byron alive for a few days and he'll be able to tell you what side I'm on. =)

If you don't need a reason other than metagaming and the way prior games played out to lynch someone, why not go after Umby based on the law of averages?

Not for nothing, this is pretty much why we always kill Umby. Wanna kill Umby instead of Byron today? I'm pretty much cool with that. Umby's got a pretty dangerous reputation now. Silly, yes. Accidental, certainly. But dangerous. Mark that, pardner.

If all you've got is Byron fever, then we may as well have you on cheeseburger duty. You're not doing much for us right now, and it appears unless we choose to appease you, you're not even going to try to look at anyone else.

The way I see it, if you're one of us, then we may as well let you sit there and scribble out burgers just to keep our numbers up. If you're a Diamondback, it's much better for us if you give up.

Well, you're the boss.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3136/2381976328_fa671e2725.jpg?v=0

Destil
09-17-2010, 08:59 PM
Byron was the "fiend that turned up clean" role, so he was being very loud and suspicious so that when we lynched him we would all be confused, but then he couldn't get lynched and just ended up ruling the game. So don't think we have the ability to know when he is evil and just don't act, more like you could slap us in the face with the knowledge and we still won't do anything with it

Byron constantly did things that harmed the town (like claiming shivam was the doomguard, pure damage control; and convincing Kayma to check on succubi the night before he was killed), and your argument is that killing him wouldn't have helped? Even if he gave a lot of false leads? If he had died, especially on the last day, they would have pretty much known he was the tiefling. And it's not like they could win with him alive.

Also, I'm not talking about Byron exclusively here. It's not that he, specifically, has a tell. Sorry Merus. It's that if you paid close attention to everything that was said and done Byron as a top candidate was pretty clear. Poisoning the well after his death would have been bad, sure, but killing him could still have helped win the game for the clueless. And yet I watch as time and time again people said things like "I think we should be lynching Byron. I accuse Nodal." along with those who called him on his lies not only being drowned out, but killed the next night.

Anyway, I'm drifting entirely off topic here. And that's my own fault. Back to it: I accuse Brickroad. Because he's back to his old 'I tried to play and I sucked, then I tried not to play and you guys sucked' song and dance. If nothing else so he can maybe have some accountability for his actions here for a change. What are you going to do for me this game, Brick? Why do I want you alive? And "I'm a citizen" goes without saying.

Nodal
09-17-2010, 09:00 PM
Yeah: Nodal.

I mean, I was right about going after fanboy, and I had wanted to get Byron previous days. But don't let me get in the way of your scapegoating.

dtsund
09-17-2010, 09:14 PM
I don't know. I tried this out in both M4 and M5 and it didn't work. In M4 I was all about participating as little as possible so as not to screw up anyone else's detective work, and I got yelled at for "not playing". In M5 I managed to land in the one and only confirmed townie position, so it fell to me to pick targets whether I liked it or not. Nobody else was willing to put their dick out in any case.

Shitty detective or no, if I don't throw accusations at the wall I'm going to catch hell for it. If you want me to sit back so you and Nich can work your magic, well okay, I'm willing to cool out on you two for maybe a day or so.

If you want Byron dead so bad, why haven't you accused him? You showed no compunctions about accusing Alpha Werewolf right off the bat in M5, and never seemed to have much problem making a (reversible!) accusation early in the day before.

Curiously enough, you didn't vote early in Game 3, when you were Corrupt. This may or may not mean anything.

Speaking of Game 3, though, your whole 'I think Byron's a good player, so let's lynch Byron' is exactly the same reasoning Nodal used to try to lynch you in Game 3; I was happy to lynch him then for it because it was silly and for the same reason I'm happy to lynch you for it. I accuse Brickroad.

Neither of you have caught Byron with your detective work, though. Nich caught him through the magic of inspection

More'n you ever did, then. Ohohoho

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 09:22 PM
Nodal, don't worry. I'm not blaming you for our M5 loss. That started with Alpha's blunder and rolled downhill. We were in a shitty position almost that entire game, made shittier when the one guy who can't find fiends was dropped in the position of Sole Confirmed Citizen.

Byron constantly did things that harmed the town (like claiming shivam was the doomguard, pure damage control; and convincing Kayma to check on succubi the night before he was killed), and your argument is that killing him wouldn't have helped? Even if he gave a lot of false leads? If he had died, especially on the last day, they would have pretty much known he was the tiefling. And it's not like they could win with him alive.

Um... if your argument is "Dude! You're an idiot! Byron was so totally obviously a fiend it wasn't funny!" then I'm going to go out on a limb and say that maybe, just maybe you might be a little biased.

Because you ran M5, see. You knew Byron was a bad guy from the beginning. It wasn't so obvious to any of us who were actually in the game.

And yet I watch as time and time again people said things like "I think we should be lynching Byron. I accuse Nodal." along with those who called him on his lies not only being drowned out, but killed the next night.

I already offered to back off of Byron and let Merus and Nich (and you, I guess, though somehow I doubt your Byron-vision is as clear as it was in M5) keep an eye on him. If you guys are convinced you'll catch him if he's bad, I'll leave you to it.

One of the reasons I never wanted to kill Byron in M5 is because, if he was on my team, he's too useful to lose. Too dangerous to leave alive, too smart to sacrifice... I guarantee you and Merus and Nich will find yourselves in that position at some point here in Dead Man's Gulch.

Anyway, I'm drifting entirely off topic here. And that's my own fault. Back to it: I accuse Brickroad. Because he's back to his old 'I tried to play and I sucked, then I tried not to play and you guys sucked' song and dance. If nothing else so he can maybe have some accountability for his actions here for a change. What are you going to do for me this game, Brick? Why do I want you alive? And "I'm a citizen" goes without saying.

I dunno. What do you want me to do? If you want me to voice my suspicions, well, I don't have any. It's Day One. Day One is a crapshoot. If you want me to make an accusation based on metagaming, I've already done that: Byron or Alpha Werewolf. If you want me to back off and not do anything, I've made that offer as well. Put me where you want me, hoss.

I am putting my money, right now on the fact that our four best players are Nich, Byron, Merus and Destil. I am pretty confident in that. The odds of all four of them being outlaws is very low (although odds of two of them being outlaws, starting Day Two, are non-negligible).

If the four of you come to some kind of consensus, I will follow you and be very vocal in asking the rest of the townies to do the same. (I am good at getting the townies talking, after all.)

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 09:25 PM
If you want Byron dead so bad, why haven't you accused him? You showed no compunctions about accusing Alpha Werewolf right off the bat in M5, and never seemed to have much problem making a (reversible!) accusation early in the day before.

I've also showed no compunctions (that is a cool word) about threatening an accusation without actually making one. Which I've done here. I don't see the functional difference.

Curiously enough, you didn't vote early in Game 3, when you were Corrupt. This may or may not mean anything.

Did I vote early in M4? I don't even remember.

Speaking of Game 3, though, your whole 'I think Byron's a good player, so let's lynch Byron' is exactly the same reasoning Nodal used to try to lynch you in Game 3; I was happy to lynch him then for it because it was silly and for the same reason I'm happy to lynch you for it. I accuse Brickroad.

This is the third or fourth time I've said this now: if you guys want to leave Byron alive, I'm cool with that. Tell me to back off and I will. I can coast just as easily as I can thrash.

Javex
09-17-2010, 09:28 PM
¿Donde esta widdershins?

Umby
09-17-2010, 09:31 PM
Back from services, y'all.

Anyway, I am really tempted to lynch Brickroad. He's loud, he starts bandwagons, and boy oh boy if he was an outlaw, that would be great. But the best bet here is to just wait and see, personally. The roles, whoever they are, will start to pick up information. I've tried voting on people who made hasty votes on the first day in M5, and I got nowhere. I believe the mafia are smarter than that.

If it's possible, and I'm pretty sure it is, day one should be a no lynch day. You can take me to town on this, and I know everyone is raring to see me die, but I really think that this day one lynch is a lose/lose situation. What information do we gain from lynching today?

Nodal
09-17-2010, 09:41 PM
If it's possible, and I'm pretty sure it is, day one should be a no lynch day. You can take me to town on this, and I know everyone is raring to see me die, but I really think that this day one lynch is a lose/lose situation. What information do we gain from lynching today?

We have to lynch somebody every day.

dtsund
09-17-2010, 09:41 PM
Did I vote early in M4? I don't even remember.

You started posting images early in M4, and I suspect that may be all that's relevant.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 09:44 PM
You started posting images early in M4, and I suspect that may be all that's relevant.

I can do that too, if you want. =)

JohnB
09-17-2010, 09:57 PM
He and I agreed after M4 that I'm more dangerous to my own side until a few days in when I can really get a head of evidentiary steam going, and that the villains in whatever game really ought to be taking me out early.

Why would you paint such a bright target on your back?

Umby
09-17-2010, 09:57 PM
Oh, we do? Ok, then. KILL THE INFIDEEEEEEEEELS

So who are the infidels?

dtsund
09-17-2010, 10:02 PM
I can do that too, if you want. =)

Well, what I was getting at was that your M4 strategy was so far out there that looking there is pretty much useless for the purposes of metagaming. Unless you actually are going to be Cheeseburger Brickroad again, in which case we might glean some useful information from your patterns there. :p

Also, seriously, Nodal? Brickroad has a few votes against him and you aren't thirsting for blood? I am shock.

Eddie
09-17-2010, 10:09 PM
I think at this point we should be lynching someone off this list:


Alpha Werewolf
Rai
Torgo


* * *

The reason being is that they only have one post each. I am in favour, in lieu of a better plan, of knocking off people who are quiet. Why? Because I think history has shown that, on average, most outlaws are reluctant to speak up, and try and dominate the conversation. If you look back at every Mafia Game (barring Mafia 4, which was an entirely different beast), you'll see the trend is for Mafia to stay below the 50th percentile of posters. Evidence (I've got this in a text file if anyone wants it):

MAFIA 1
- The most active mafia poster was vaterite, with 42 posts. Compare that to Brick's 206, Merus's 182, Dizzy's 102... their fellow mafia came in at 34, 28 and 27 posts. The only innocent person bellow vaterite's posts who wasn't lynched/night killed was Loki.

MAFIA 2 EAST
- Highest Mafia poster was Tock, at 65. He was 6th on the posting list. The only non-mafia players who weren't killed over the course of the game were Dizzy/Alice.

MAFIA 2 WEST
- Highest Mafia poster was dwolfe at #4, but that number is a bit skewwed from the after-game commentary. There were a mix of mafia/citizens in the bottom, so the bottom doesn't really pan out, but no mafia in the top 3 is notable.

MAFIA 3
- Well, okay the mafia DOMINATE the top (Nich, Destil, Brickroad). Still, looking at the bottom ten players who weren't killed, 4/10 were mafia, and I'd like to think that if such a large combination of loud players weren't picked for mafia (the above three regularly are near the top of any mafia game in post count) we'd see more occupying the bottom 10.

MAFIA 5

Well, Brickroad has more posts than the next two combined, with the highest being Byron at #2. The bottom 3 posters of the seven or so alive at the end of the game were Martinent, fanboymaster (mafia), kaisel (mafia).

I'm not saying my findings are statistically significant; a loud player will be loud whether he's a dirty Diamondback or not. But what I am saying is that the likelihood of finding an outlaw in our bottom rung of posters is better than looking in our top rung.

* * *

Barring that I would be willing to lynch Nich, because he's a yellow coward who wears both suspenders and a belt. How can you trust a man who wears both a belt and suspenders? The man can't even trust his own pants.

Also, I can't trust a man who is, on day 1, willing to 'go down for the team.'

- Eddie

Nodal
09-17-2010, 10:09 PM
Also, seriously, Nodal? Brickroad has a few votes against him and you aren't thirsting for blood? I am shock.

Well my current dilemma is I don't think Brickroad is guilty, but I do think he hurts the town. However one of the main reasons I think he hurts the town is his whole LYNCH THE USELESS nonsense that leads to going after townies instead of mafia. But...if I voted for Brick because of that, that would make me hurt the town.

Javex
09-17-2010, 10:11 PM
May as well go down for the team.

There is no good way to do this, and this is a terrible concept of teamwork.

Ah got mah eye on yew, boyh.

Javex
09-17-2010, 10:13 PM
I am in favour, in lieu of a better plan, of knocking off people who are quiet.

Take this to its logical end and vote for widdershins to scare him out of hiding.

McClain
09-17-2010, 10:25 PM
Take this to its logical end and vote for widdershins to scare him out of hiding.

This is a pretty normal course of action. But I would give people the first 24-hours to speak up, especially since this game started earlier than most of us expected.

Trying to decide if it's worth voting for Brickroad or not. On one hand, he's at the very least a distraction, if not out-right guilty. But he is good at stoking the fire, and the worst part of M5 was when everyone went all quiet for long stretches.

I'm inclined to leave him alive for now. Alpha's silent treatment is making my hair stand up a bit, though. I'm going to keep an eye on Eddie's list.

JohnB
09-17-2010, 10:27 PM
I'm certain Alpha has shut his mouth because he doesn't want to end up as the Day 1 lynchee again. Beyond that, whether he's a plain townie or something else I have no idea.

shivam
09-17-2010, 10:28 PM
especially since this game started earlier than most of us expected.


yeah, sorry about that. i was just excited!

McClain
09-17-2010, 10:29 PM
yeah, sorry about that. i was just excited!

Definitely not complaining! :)

Javex
09-17-2010, 10:30 PM
So were we all, if the avatars are any indication!

dtsund
09-17-2010, 10:35 PM
yeah, sorry about that. i was just excited!

I know, right? I was so tempted to start Game 1 early.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 10:35 PM
Trying to decide if it's worth voting for Brickroad or not. On one hand, he's at the very least a distraction, if not out-right guilty. But he is good at stoking the fire, and the worst part of M5 was when everyone went all quiet for long stretches.

I know this looks bad for me, but I couldn't get people in M5 talking even after personally bludgeoning each and every one of them with everything I could think of. I spent the last few days banging my head on the desk.

M5 was pretty horrible all around for me. I had a shitty role, landed in a shitty situation, and got screwed over by Alpha Werewolf. Losing was much more fun in M4.

So were we all, if the avatars are any indication!

Everyone except JohnB, from the looks of it. You got somethin' to hide, John?

Javex
09-17-2010, 10:42 PM
Also Merus, Alpha, and Umby! THAT'S STRIKE TWO, UMBY. WHERE IS YOUR TEAM SPIRIT?!

Eddie
09-17-2010, 10:42 PM
I know this looks bad for me, but I couldn't get people in M5 talking even after personally bludgeoning each and every one of them with everything I could think of. I spent the last few days banging my head on the desk.

M5 was pretty horrible all around for me. I had a shitty role, landed in a shitty situation, and got screwed over by Alpha Werewolf. Losing was much more fun in M4.

Join me in advocating we lynch the person 1d4 places from the bottom of the list. Then later when it's revealed you're an outlaw, my credibility will once again plummet and you can laugh at me during the post-game.

- Eddie

dtsund
09-17-2010, 10:43 PM
Everyone except JohnB, from the looks of it. You got somethin' to hide, John?

And Alpha Werewolf, and Umby, and Merus...

...but yeah, even I have an avatar now.

shivam
09-17-2010, 10:47 PM
CURRENT VOTES

JohnB
dtsund
wheels

Nodal
JohnB

dtsund
JohnB

Wheels
Nich

Brickroad
Destil
dtsund

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT IF YOU CHANGE YOUR VOTE, YOU MUST POST THAT YOU RETRACT YOUR PREVIOUS VOTE.

If you do not post a retraction, your vote WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

Kylie
09-17-2010, 10:49 PM
Gosh you boys sure do know how to make a gal feel pretty.

I don't know that I am awesome, for serious. Nich's cop was solid in M2 -- I made a giant slip up, and he was on top of it. That was my screw-up, not his exploit, and he made the exact right move.

I like Nich for an outlaw today, I think. He's said something (twice!) that was specifically untrue - that Wheels will yield us the most info today, but when confronted, admitted that the fellow will bring no info, if innocent.

Our chances of hitting an outlaw today are poor, but we still ought to try. That said, if we're going to try to mess up someone for info, they need to give us info MOST SPECIFICALLY if they are innocent, since that is most likely. If they are an outlaw, that really is its own reward -- the info then is less important.

JohnB
09-17-2010, 10:49 PM
Everyone except JohnB, from the looks of it. You got somethin' to hide, John?

I'm a nonconformist. You got something against the Legend of Zelda title screen? I'll also be god dammed dipped in double horseshit if I'll be typing in cowboy talk at any point during this game. I would be happy, however, to second your plan about routinely calling people cocksuckers, however.

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 10:50 PM
Join me in advocating we lynch the person 1d4 places from the bottom of the list. Then later when it's revealed you're an outlaw, my credibility will once again plummet and you can laugh at me during the post-game.

- Eddie

See, the fucked up thing about your strategy, Eddie, is that while it is logically sound and all your evidence is very much in order... we've done that before and it has never caught us a bad guy.

It's frustrating, isn't it? It's so easy to look at the gamestate and conclude "We should lynch the quiet fellas!" It makes so much sense. And yet it simply does not work in practice.

Like communism. You a communist, Eddie?

Eddie
09-17-2010, 10:56 PM
See, the fucked up thing about your strategy, Eddie, is that while it is logically sound and all your evidence is very much in order... we've done that before and it has never caught us a bad guy.

It's frustrating, isn't it? It's so easy to look at the gamestate and conclude "We should lynch the quiet fellas!" It makes so much sense. And yet it simply does not work in practice.

I would argue the reason it's never caught a bad guy is that people are too quick to turn away from such a strategy once it doesn't immediately produce results. I can't remember all the games, but I remember in M3 that had it been pursued, Kayma would have been lynched (and he was mafia) and in M4LD it would have resulted in a string of mafia deaths. The problem was that apathy allowed me and the mafia there to get people to string up every innocent player near the bottom of the list, and once only mafia were left, apathy once again allowed us to then completely drop the strategy.

Like communism. You a communist, Eddie?

Are you looking to lose in a duel mister?

- Eddie

Wheels
09-17-2010, 10:57 PM
See, the fucked up thing about your strategy, Eddie, is that while it is logically sound and all your evidence is very much in order... we've done that before and it has never caught us a bad guy.

It's frustrating, isn't it? It's so easy to look at the gamestate and conclude "We should lynch the quiet fellas!" It makes so much sense. And yet it simply does not work in practice.

Like communism. You a communist, Eddie?

There are no commies in the wild west!

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 10:58 PM
There are no commies in the wild west!

that's just what Eddie wants you to think

Kylie
09-17-2010, 11:03 PM
Eddie's thoughts would be great if, by posting it before data collection, he hadn't completely neutered our results.

He's right about Taking One For The Team, though.

JohnB
09-17-2010, 11:05 PM
Eddie's thoughts would be great if, by posting it before data collection, he hadn't completely neutered our results.

OH SNAP

Eddie
09-17-2010, 11:07 PM
Eddie's thoughts would be great if, by posting it before data collection, he hadn't completely neutered our results.

I'm not sure what you mean?

- Eddie

Kylie
09-17-2010, 11:17 PM
You talked about the corollary between post volume and faction loyalty. That is good data! It's super effective!

Except you posted it halfway through the first day. Post volume across a game is not really comparable to post volume on the first day - the datasets are not the same.

It would be a VERY valuable data set later -- the longer the game lasts, the more valuable your data set is!

Except now that it's been exposed, it can be manipulated.

Eddie
09-17-2010, 11:19 PM
Yeah I'm totally aware that it's early to post something like that, but I think it's never too early to start putting pressure on the low posters. More posts = more information = better decisions.

Except now that it's been exposed, it can be manipulated.

I have zero problem with getting Diamondbacks to speak up more.

- Eddie

dtsund
09-17-2010, 11:21 PM
I'm not sure what you mean?

- Eddie

If you say "let's lynch the people who do [thing]", you've screwed with the chances that people will actually do [thing].

Brickroad
09-17-2010, 11:26 PM
But, see, that's not really true either. Because in pretty much every single game I have been like "QUIET PEOPLE YOU ARE STUPID. TALK MORE. EVERYONE TALK. FOREVER." And there have always been a few people who still never talked. And some of those people, as Eddie observes, have been bad guys.

I think the reason it doesn't work is because there are way more of us than there are of them. Which means there are way more of us in any given subset of the player list than there are of them. So early in the game "kill da quiets" doesn't work because we're still more likely to hit a townie, and late in the game "kill da quiets" isn't a viable option because a single misstep could mean defeat.

So I don't know. I do wish everyone would talk more, but there doesn't seem to be any way to make them do it. We have nothing to threaten them with and nothing to bribe them with.

namelessentity
09-17-2010, 11:45 PM
Lynching low posters is still a viable tactic. We have mentioned in I think every game that mafia tend to hide towards the bottom, and I think in every game we have mentioned how mentioning that makes the mafia stop hiding there and we kill the wrong people, but as Eddie has shown it hasn't actually stopped them from doing it. Still to early to use it as a tactic, but I don't think by revealing it now has completely invalidated it.

Side note, I'm going to be gone for most of today, but I'll be back for Sunday.

Eddie
09-17-2010, 11:49 PM
I think the reason it doesn't work is because there are way more of us than there are of them. Which means there are way more of us in any given subset of the player list than there are of them. So early in the game "kill da quiets" doesn't work because we're still more likely to hit a townie, and late in the game "kill da quiets" isn't a viable option because a single misstep could mean defeat.

I think that's a pretty reasonable concern.

- Eddie

Javex
09-17-2010, 11:50 PM
Is it wrong if I interpret this all as "Kill Umby"?

Rai
09-17-2010, 11:55 PM
God, go away most of the day and I come back from an excellent evening to six pages?

I've missed you, Mafia. You and your crazy, crazy post counts.

Re: Eddie (Because I'll be damned if I quote that long post for only a snippet or two of information)

I'm personally against this! Largely because I'm on that list. Historically speaking, I've never had a role more important than "Citizen 3 on the left" in one of these games, and I've never exactly been one to just post to increase my post count. I like having my thoughts in a row before I post. This generally means that I have a lower post count. I mean, I too could post cheeseburgers and tiny statements that don't add much to a conversation.

That said, I'm now going to go back and read the rest of the thread that popped up in my absence.

widdershins
09-18-2010, 12:23 AM
In a darkened corner of the town's liveliest saloon, a pensive stranger leaves an empty whiskey glass to join the rabble that's assembled before him

Damned if y'all aren't gettin' mighty talkative so early in the morning. You'll have to excuse my lateness -- day seemed to start a whole lot earlier than I'm used to.

Name's Rycar, but y'all can call me Shins. Everyones else does.

Now, I know I'm new in town, so a lot of your yappin' about times past is a bit lost on me, but way I figure, this here's a numbers game and no matter how much we might like to think otherwise, odds are all on the house today. Sure we might get lucky, and one of them damn Diamondbacks will see their last sunset today, but we're gonna have to face a hard fact: chances are one of ours is going to be gracing the gallows tonight.

Sure, that's sad, and I'll raise a glass to 'em if'n that's the case, but make no mistake... s'long as we can avoid hittin' any of our big guns, any outcome works in our favor. Let's say we string up one of our own. Come tomorrow, those outlaws are one step closer to closing their grip on this town of ours, but that numbers game is slowly startin' to look a little nicer. Come tomorrow, some folks will have an awful lot of explainin' to do if we lose one of ours.

That said, this is still your town, and I'm still new blood. I certainly ain't made my mind up yet, and I'll probably go along with whatever y'all think's best today. Today, mind you. Tomorrow, I aim to do some sleuthin' of my own.

Eddie
09-18-2010, 12:23 AM
I'm personally against this! Largely because I'm on that list. Historically speaking, I've never had a role more important than "Citizen 3 on the left" in one of these games, and I've never exactly been one to just post to increase my post count. I like having my thoughts in a row before I post. This generally means that I have a lower post count. I mean, I too could post cheeseburgers and tiny statements that don't add much to a conversation.

Well, even considering that past performance in previous mafia games is no excuse to ignore a low post count in this one (are you suggesting that if you have a low post count this game, that you're innocent?), I think we're all man enough to recognize your more meaty contributions.

- Eddie

Destil
09-18-2010, 12:34 AM
I would argue the reason it's never caught a bad guy is that people are too quick to turn away from such a strategy once it doesn't immediately produce results. I can't remember all the games, but I remember in M3 that had it been pursued, Kayma would have been lynched (and he was mafia) and in M4LD it would have resulted in a string of mafia deaths. The problem was that apathy allowed me and the mafia there to get people to string up every innocent player near the bottom of the list, and once only mafia were left, apathy once again allowed us to then completely drop the strategy.

No, the problem is we DO kill quiet people. And that the mafia that survive skim along with enough posts to 'get by'. It's far too easy to post without saying anything. I really don't think this data means what you think it means, because you're only looking at the end state of each game. And posting that now if it gains momentum people will start to game the system. And we haven't even been running for 24 hours yet and started early. And to do what you're saying right here we'd need to commit to killing EVERY quiet person in the game.

Rai
09-18-2010, 12:39 AM
Well, even considering that past performance in previous mafia games is no excuse to ignore a low post count in this one (are you suggesting that if you have a low post count this game, that you're innocent?), I think we're all man enough to recognize your more meaty contributions.

- Eddie

Nope, I'm just pointing out that low post count doesn't necessarily equate with a good chance of being evil. I know damn well that the only way people can be certain of what my role is is by killing me. Or by having my role revealed by a trusted Priest. Or Drunk. Right, the point is, just because someone is quiet doesn't necessarily mean that they're evil.

Additionally, the moment we say "Lynch all quiet people" is the moment that the mafia starts speaking up with gibberish. See also: M3.

On a re-read, I'm not sure how much I'm gleaning, honestly, but I get the feeling that this is going to be an interesting game in which the major personalities tear each other down in a bloody free for all. I'm liking this line up.

Destil
09-18-2010, 12:42 AM
Well, even considering that past performance in previous mafia games is no excuse to ignore a low post count in this one (are you suggesting that if you have a low post count this game, that you're innocent?), I think we're all man enough to recognize your more meaty contributions.

- Eddie

Okay, this right here I don't like. "Past preformance?" Rai usually has a low post count, sure. But he usually gets in more in one or two posts than Brick or I do in 10. He's pretty much an outlier in that regard, but he's never been afraid to put his ideas out there and take a stand on things. He just does it without posting over and over (and over).

Again, the post count thing doesn't really mean anything. Look at shivam in M5. He was in the top 5 when he died, but he never said anything of value aside from accusations. Especially with 4-5 mafia. You're doomed to statistical suicide there if the mafia is something like M3 group.

Kylie
09-18-2010, 12:47 AM
The real problem is that "Lynch The Quiet People" is far too oversimplified. A quiet person with valuable insights -- BongoBill in M3, for example -- throws off our definition of "quiet and lynchable" and this is often where the Mafia live. They stay quiet, and post just enough to be recognized as contributing, and the quiet civvies, who are keeping their heads down for their own reasons, see the noose.

Torgo
09-18-2010, 02:52 AM
In defense of JohnB's goof early on, I almost made the same mistake as I was reading it. I had to go back and check it again. That doesn't necessarily say anything about him one way or the other, but I'm willing to call it an honest mistake.

If it's possible, and I'm pretty sure it is, day one should be a no lynch day.
So the outlaws get a free hit and up to two possible conversions on the first day. Personally I don't like that at all, especially since it doesn't necessarily leave us with any more information then when the sun set, or with just plain bad information if a Salesman ropes someone in. I understand the drive behind the idea of a day one no lynch, but if you ask me it's worth the risk to take a potshot.

By all means feel free to sell me on the idea, but at this point I don't buy it and think it might even stink a little.

spineshark
09-18-2010, 02:59 AM
I dunno. What do you want me to do? If you want me to voice my suspicions, well, I don't have any. It's Day One. Day One is a crapshoot. If you want me to make an accusation based on metagaming, I've already done that: Byron or Alpha Werewolf.
I want results. The good kind of results, that kill bad guys. I'm not going to stand for a whole game of big talk from anyone if they don't ever deliver.

Obviously that's not a good decision mechanic this early. But it's not reasonable to expect any more out of the first day than "everyone talks for a while and then someone dies"; as always the plan is to get some information while doing minimal damage to our cause; to that end I guess I'm kind of inclined toward AW on a basic level, just like Brick is. I'd love to see any sign that he's interested in helping our cause, and didn't just join hoping that he'd get something fun to do during night phases.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 03:11 AM
I'd love to see any sign that he's interested in helping our cause, and didn't just join hoping that he'd get something fun to do during night phases.

It's like... on one hand, I don't want to open this can of worms again, but on the other, it is directly pertinent to my team winning this game.

Merus
09-18-2010, 03:13 AM
Again, if you guys don't want me to play, just say so. I will step back and let you detective-work your little asses off, and content myself with posting a cheeseburger a day to fulfill the minimum requirements. But again, I repeat (for like the thirtieth time now, across multiple threads): that was my exact strategy in M4, and absolutely everyone told me I was an idiot for trying it.

So maybe you should do what you're good at, which is overall strategy. Everyone kept bagging on you for the day 1 'ignore the newbies' strategy, which was a good strategy presented poorly (see 'you're a cock' a couple of pages ago for why people didn't go for it), and you're not going to get much attention doing detective work, which is probably going to play into your hands, really.

This is not a game where detective work is going to be effective, unlike M4 where the penalty for being wrong was a loss of an opportunity to be right. In this game false accusations are very dangerous, and it's easy to be misled. Strategy is going to be important, strategy that can't be easily manipulated or second-guessed, and you're a lot better at that than most other players here. That's what you should be doing.

Or you could be a cock, but let's face it you're going to be doing that anyway.

He and I agreed after M4 that I'm more dangerous to my own side until a few days in when I can really get a head of evidentiary steam going, and that the villains in whatever game really ought to be taking me out early.

I said no such thing. True, you were stronger when you had some evidence, but you're hardly dangerous to the town. I do agree that the outlaws want to be killing people who can sort out the facts, but I've said that about every smart player, including myself.

Because I don't have a role, and I don't think I'm as good as Merus or Brick seem to think. May as well go down for the team.

And this is pretty much why: you seem to be convinced that you're not actually any good at this game, for some reason.

This would be enough to get me to vote for you - you've been making a lot of assertions today that just aren't supported by the facts, and now you're claiming that I, specifically, am a threat if you die because we had a conversation that never took place. The only thing that stops me from doing so is that your logic is predicated on you being killed by the outlaws - if you are an outlaw, there's no chance of you being gunned down by your fellows, and if you're not an outlaw then you're gunning for a fellow townie because you think that no-one else would work out that you're dangerous to the outlaws if left to your own devices. We've pretty much all worked that out, dude.


I'm not saying my findings are statistically significant; a loud player will be loud whether he's a dirty Diamondback or not. But what I am saying is that the likelihood of finding an outlaw in our bottom rung of posters is better than looking in our top rung.

I was going to jump on you for this, but you've already preempted my argument. Still, what makes you say that the three posters you've named are good targets? They might be naturally quiet, and then we're wasting our time.

It seems like the appropriate strategy would be to find people who were relatively loud last time they played and have changed their strategy to be whisper-quiet.

But most people have covered this, it seems - as a strategy, kill the quiet ones has always been fairly flawed, especially when there's plenty of players who stay quiet because they're not very good at the game.

I get the feeling that this is going to be an interesting game in which the major personalities tear each other down in a bloody free for all.

I keep trying to decide between Nich, for the falsities, and Brick, for the peace and quiet and the fact that he clearly is not having fun any more. But then I'd bet neither are outlaws because Nich's falsehoods don't benefits the outlaws, and because if Brick was an outlaw he'd be having fun.

spineshark
09-18-2010, 03:22 AM
Well, I can certainly understand why he would be shy about running his mouth after what happened last time. But he said (and after M4, I agree!) in M5 that town shouldn't be afraid to say things. Even if he's afraid to say something because he thinks it'll get him killed again, what does that say?

If he's just a guy, that is hardly the worst outcome on Day 1. If he thinks he can be useful to us I wouldn't mind at least a tiny suggestion of how that might be. And obviously, if he's a bad guy, it would be pretty awesome to get him right away.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 03:24 AM
So maybe you should do what you're good at, which is overall strategy.

Okay. Day one strategy is as follows:

Every player has an equal chance of being an outlaw.

Because there are far more townies than outlaws, we are far more likely to lynch a townie today.

Barring some monumental slip-up on the part of an outlaw, there's also very little chance of finding one today via detective work. (We need more information for that: voting records, kill ID, etc.)

So we might as well just take a random shot. It's not any better or worse than trying to datamine today's posts.

Given all that: we should identify the person who, if a townie, is least likely to help us win. In other words, we lynch the person we know to be the worst player.

Can anyone make a case for why that isn't Alpha Werewolf?

(You'll note I've floated this exact strategy on Day One of M2, M3, and M5... and would have in M4 as well if I hadn't decided to cheeseburger it. I really do think it is the optimal day one strategy.)

Or you could be a cock, but let's face it you're going to be doing that anyway.

...

I keep trying to decide between Nich, for the falsities, and Brick, for the peace and quiet and the fact that he clearly is not having fun any more.

Oh come now, Merus. You know me better than that. I'm having fun because I'm being a cock. =)

Merus
09-18-2010, 03:43 AM
We could always encourage a really, really bad outlaw to claim as the inspector. Any inspectors? Silent Noise? No?

I guess you did cover this.

So I guess I need to read up on what AW has put forward and decide whether he's actually said anything kind of stupid, and for that matter look closer at the whole Nich thing. Someone suggested that Nich has been telling porkies, other than me, but it's occurred to me now that I just took that on faith. So there's a couple of things to check up on.

Torgo
09-18-2010, 03:58 AM
So I guess I need to read up on what AW has put forward and decide whether he's actually said anything kind of stupid, and for that matter look closer at the whole Nich thing.
So far Alpha has posted nothing of substance, going so far as to point out that he's not saying anything of substance for fear of getting hung.

I suppose I'll take the moment to indulge in a little metagaming to say that Alpha was more then happy to finger me from the get-go in M2E on nothing more then "low post count, posts nothing substantial".

But then again... he did turn out to be right.

Eddie
09-18-2010, 06:56 AM
Okay, this right here I don't like. "Past preformance?" Rai usually has a low post count, sure. But he usually gets in more in one or two posts than Brick or I do in 10. He's pretty much an outlier in that regard, but he's never been afraid to put his ideas out there and take a stand on things. He just does it without posting over and over (and over).

Perhaps the early western lingo didn't make my post clear. When I said "I think we're all man enough to recognize your more meaty contributions", I meant that we can regard someone like Rai as an outlier, if we think we have good reason to believe he is not sparsely posting because he's trying to avoid drawing attention to himself.

One strategy I will float in (that doesn't involve us killing each other) is a digest watchlist. Those from M4UD will remember the idea; we generate a list of the players, and each player is assigned to pay close attention to the person both above AND below them on the list. The purpose of this is to make sure everyone is properly scrutinized. Thus, for example, let's say we're using the list Shivam created on the first page of every player in the game:
Umby
...
McClain
Nich
Javex
Spineshark
Destil
torgo
brickroad
rai
johnb
nodal
dizzy
widdershins
namelessentity
Eddie
dtsund
Byron
Alpha Werewolf
Adam
Tock
Merus
Wheels
Umby
...
McClain

I, for example, would keep tabs on namelessentity and dtsund. Tock would eye Adam and Merus, while Umby would eye Wheels and McClain.

There are theoretically other ways we could reorganize this list.

- Eddie

JohnB
09-18-2010, 07:20 AM
I like this idea on principle, really, I do. 22 players is a large and unwieldy lot, and this helps cut down a great deal on the white noise when you only have to focus in on a few people. In fact, with the quality of player in this game you may have a great amount of diligent participation in this. The thing is is that it really requires 100% to be worth the trouble. I think it will be hard to overcome (as it was in the previous game this approach was offered) the apathy or frustration that is inherent to having to digest the prolific expectorations of a Nich, Merus, Eddie, et al. 100% just didn't happen in the game before, and this list gives the Outlaws yet another place to hide if we're just assuming everyone is going to do their job and then act surprised when they don't.

Umby
09-18-2010, 08:04 AM
Also Merus, Alpha, and Umby! THAT'S STRIKE TWO, UMBY. WHERE IS YOUR TEAM SPIRIT?!

**coughs really loud and points to his first post**

And I'll be gone from 10:00 AM to 6:00 PM today, too.

Umby
09-18-2010, 08:08 AM
So the outlaws get a free hit and up to two possible conversions on the first day. Personally I don't like that at all, especially since it doesn't necessarily leave us with any more information then when the sun set, or with just plain bad information if a Salesman ropes someone in. I understand the drive behind the idea of a day one no lynch, but if you ask me it's worth the risk to take a potshot.

By all means feel free to sell me on the idea, but at this point I don't buy it and think it might even stink a little.

Oh, and, I was mistaken that this was possible. We have to kill someone every day. Unless you want me to defend my position that I started with...? I think there are more important things I could be doing, though.

McClain
09-18-2010, 08:47 AM
If we are serious about culling the dead weight, Alpha seems to be the obvious pick. I think he's still upset about getting lynched the first day in M5, and has taken his ball and gone home.

Barring a better option or him actually contributing, that's likely where my vote will go.

Wheels
09-18-2010, 08:54 AM
Eddie's plan is full of sound logic

Also I stand by my accusation

(Wheels will be gone for the rest of the day, don't try and turn his silence into anything!)

Rai
09-18-2010, 10:02 AM
Actually, I really want to second the chain of digests. I thought it worked out really well on the Upper Decks. Rather than relying on a handful of people to analyze info, everyone only has two. Sure, some people are going to get Brickroad and have to analyze a lot of posts, but at least they'd only have to look at two people.

Additionally, we've got a much better stick for those who don't do digests. Kills actually stick in this game, as compared to just wasting scans.

widdershins
09-18-2010, 10:17 AM
After further consideration, I reckon I've got some input as far as peoples' overall opening strategies are concerned:

1) Lynch the wily players: This is a dangerous play on day 1. Since odds are good we're gonna lynch one of our own, going after the folks we figure are 'smart' just increases the chances of us cutting lose a valuable member of our community. I understand the thought process here, but don't think anything's lost by waiting a few days. Smart or not, they can always slip up in the interrum (or someone else can), and the strategy is no less viable on day 3 or 4.

2) Lynch quiet players: I think I get the rationale here as well, but if we've been doin' this as regularly as folks seem to imply, any Diamondback with half a brain's going to be chatty to try and compensate. How talkative they are strikes me as less important than how much useful conversation they've got to add. Seems folks have already said this better'n me, though.

3) Lynch dead weight: My heart goes out to these folks; ain't no one what likes always gettin' picked last at kickball after all. Still, our town's on the line, and as such I gotta be as rational as possible, and that means hurtin' feelings. Hurts a lot less than a noose, so I'll try not to lose any sleep over it.
This seems like the best plan

Since we're more likely n' not going to lynch a townie today, we do the least damage to ourselves if we pick a straggler. Even if they've got themselves some special powers, if folk don't figure they're gonna use 'em effectively, there's still not a whole lot lost.

I don't know any of y'all well enough to know who all that entails, but looking on as an objective observer, it just seems that's the most logical course of action. I'll still side with whomever the majority of ya seem to want to pounce.

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 10:51 AM
One strategy I will float in (that doesn't involve us killing each other) is a digest watchlist. Those from M4UD will remember the idea; we generate a list of the players, and each player is assigned to pay close attention to the person both above AND below them on the list. The purpose of this is to make sure everyone is properly scrutinized. Thus, for example, let's say we're using the list Shivam created on the first page of every player in the game:


I think I remember this strategy from M4! I didn't think it was useful then because the chaotic nature of The Thing, but I think it could be useful now.

Especially since 20+ players is, while not a lot players compared to recent game, still a lot of players. Not only that, it's only been a day and four pages have mushroomed. Charging a single player to keep track of everything may get a little unwieldy. Talking Time-style Mafia games tend to be like C-SPAN in slow motion.

I don't like assigning watchers to watch people above and below them on the list, though. The assigning has to be more stochastic just to prevent any outlaws watching outlaws.

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 10:54 AM
Well now that I think about it shivam's list is already random, but the above flaw is still possible!

McClain
09-18-2010, 11:52 AM
I think the buddy system worked pretty well in M4UD, but I will caution against getting "tunnel vision" on your partners.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 11:53 AM
I'd be more than happy to keep close watch on Torgo and Rai. How often do you guys need me to digest 'em up?

Although I suspect they'll both be rather too busy keeping an eye on me to do much playing of their own. =)

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 12:45 PM
Here's a way we can properly shuffle the watch list in order to prevent outlaws keeping an eye on outlaws: at the beginning of each day phase we randomize the list of names.

While this could orient watch duties of outlaws on outlaws, it will only be for one phase -- that way we don't have to worry about the flaw carrying out through the entire game and it will keep everyone on their toes having to watch out for and be watched by new players.

How can we do the reshuffling objectively though? Someone would have to do it, and relying on them to do with some website generator isn't reliable, IMO.

I wonder what the standards might be for the digest watch list. Links to specific posts would be one, of course. (We're all lazy, here.)

widdershins
09-18-2010, 12:56 PM
I'm not too bothered with a need to randomize the lists, because everyone's being watched by two people. The chances of both of them being diamondbacks isn't great. I'd say whenever someone gets offed, I say repost the list with the same orientation and dead folks removed.

That way if an outlaw is responsible for getting one of the folks on their watchlist killed, we can scrutinize their continued behavior with a new charge.

Kylie
09-18-2010, 01:30 PM
Outlaws who have to watch outlaws have to lie to not tip us off to outlaw behavior. It's a win-win. Either they tip us off and sell out their friends, or they write poor/inaccurate digests and bring the hammer down on both of them. I think there's a pretty solid trail left either way.

And since Good ol' A&W is one of my watch-pals, I'll say to him what I said to Martinet in M5:

People are looking at you, dog. They're looking at you and calling you worthless. And I think they are confusing worthless with abrasive. I ain't want you to get strung up because people don't like you - not if you CAN contribute. So please, dude, talk up so that my eventual digests don't force me to finger you as a Hiding Player.

And yes, I said this in M5 to encourage the town to hang a dangerous player rather than the quiet dude. I think that worked out pretty well for the fiends. That dangerous player was AW. I am not comfortable with AW.

My targets of choice at the moment remain Tock and Nich.

Adam
09-18-2010, 01:31 PM
On one hand, I feel that keeping the list in the same order is helpful, because it lets you get a better feel for the two people you're paying attention to. On the other hand, it was only really important to keep the order in M4 because we were watching for people changing their playstyle as they were infected. Given that we're all assuming the Diamondbacks have their Succ- Godf- Snake Oil Salesman, it might not be a bad idea to stick with the same ordered list. Though, since the SOS is a one-shot, and it's been pretty much agreed that the best tactic for the Diamondbacks would be to convert as early as possible, keeping a static list to watch for conversions may not matter.

In M4U, we started off strong with our digests, but they waned as time went on. The strength of the plan lay with the fact that when someone was under suspicion in the later days, we could point back to the list, ask the suspicious person's two partners to give us a breakdown of their actions, and they essentially had already agreed that they'd be willing to do it.

I realize there's a chance for the Diamondbacks to present bad information, and as there are fewer of us, there is more chance of them getting each other as watch buddies, but having assignments for everyone helps prevent against endgame burnout. Plus, assuming Brick or Merus or someone like that is still alive (and clean), they're going to pick apart those digests no matter who their personal assignment is.

Kylie
09-18-2010, 01:33 PM
Er, by that I mean "I am not comfortable with hanging AW. I think he can produce."

Please feel free to take me to task over that one.

Alpha Werewolf
09-18-2010, 01:39 PM
Whoa whoa woah people. I'm sorry I disappeared for a day without posting, but I am NOT hiding in fear of being lynched.

Real post coming right after this one, with an explanation for my absence and a vote. I just wanted to make it clear that I am not hiding or anything.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 01:49 PM
It would help a lot in proving you're a team player if you put a cowboy hat on that avatar, pardner.

Alpha Werewolf
09-18-2010, 01:55 PM
Alright, so first off, my absence: I, like Umby, fast on Yom Kippur. When I am fasting, the last thing I want to do is get angry at stuff brickroad wrote, because that gets my blood flowing faster and I find fasting hard enough while I'm calmly reading books for the day. Sorry I didn't notify you guys.

I was very disappointed to read that brickroad is still holding a grudge against me, but this is M6. I will NOT be discussing previous games while this one is going on unless I am bringing up or answering a metagame-reliant case.

Now, brickroad has been holding a grudge against me for reasons that make no sense to me. So instead of a vague "he's our worst player because he repeatedly offers the same games", How about some cold hard FACTS:


-brickroad has never been a valuable town player on his own. In M1 it was the sheer power of a Cop backed by two Docs that made him powerful, and even then he never caught mafia. In M5 he caught shivam, and yet led many other townies to the slaughter.

-To compare, whenever brickroad is mafia, his real advantages come up: brickroad is a born leader, and people follow him almost anywhere. Town doesn't get too much from this trait, but mafia with a natural leader are inherently much more powerful than maifa without one.

-Enough metagame analysis? Here's another fact: brickroad's town game is usually aggressive, and he doesn't shy away from early votes. Here, brickroad has not voted yet, despite saying that he is willing to.


Now, the third fact I brought up is suspicious, but not enough to pin brickroad as mafia. However, I do agree that we should off the worst town player on day 1.

Vote brickroad

Alpha Werewolf
09-18-2010, 02:03 PM
One last thing!

@shivam: I would like to know whether or not Snitches are lumped in with the Outlaws in the rulepost. (as in, are they part of the 4 Outlaws, if they exist).

Nodal
09-18-2010, 02:04 PM
One last thing!

@shivam: I would like to know whether or not Snitches are lumped in with the Outlaws in the rulepost. (as in, are they part of the 4 Outlaws, if they exist).

Alpha you talk really big but you don't even read the goddamn posts.

shivam
09-18-2010, 02:07 PM
One last thing!

@shivam: I would like to know whether or not Snitches are lumped in with the Outlaws in the rulepost. (as in, are they part of the 4 Outlaws, if they exist).

Snitches win if the mafia wins, and must be killed in order for the town to win, but would not be counted as part of the four guaranteed outlaws, if indeed there are any snitches (or multiple snitches) in this game. Outlaws are only outlaws, snake oil salesmen, and grizzled veterans, assuming any of those are in this game.

and Gemar Chatimah Tovah to all of the Jewish settlers in the wild wild west =)

Alpha Werewolf
09-18-2010, 02:18 PM
Alpha you talk really big but you don't even read the goddamn posts.

Can you blame me for wanting to make absolutely sure that I hadn't misread anything? I just read through 7 pages right after a one-day fast, and I don't want to make any false assumptions.

@shivam: Thanks.

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 02:22 PM
Vote brickroad

But wait a minute...

Maybe Brick's ingenious strategy this whole time has been to get you to be an awesome player!

That through tough love and discipline he is sharpening your mastery of the game!

That's just one silly thought.

But really, Brick is an invaluable player, planet-sized ego or not. When he has a power role, like in M1, he kills, and he did pull that game off brilliantly. When he doesn't, his hyper-aggressive style usually hits its target. Usually. I don't think killing Brickroad off now would be good, because even though players get to Brick-struck, I think now we can be measure are Brick crush. Don't be too reliant on Brick, don't be reluctant of Brick. That's what history should be teaching us now.

Speaking of doing a lynch: I would agree that if we must lynch it should be a player who has a history of absenteeism, meager contributions or errors in judgment that have ruined the whole games. If they're citizen, we only lose one poor player. Killing off loud and/or sharper players may hinder us in the future.

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 02:27 PM
I don't think I lay a vote down until tomorrow. It's too early, and shivam's list shows surprisingly good players.

Alpha Werewolf
09-18-2010, 02:33 PM
Speaking of doing a lynch: I would agree that if we must lynch it should be a player who has a history of absenteeism, meager contributions or errors in judgment that have ruined the whole games. If they're citizen, we only lose one poor player. Killing off loud and/or sharper players may hinder us in the future.

As you have realised since posting that post, M6 is a list of damn good players and one or two unknowns. The players with a history of low post counts also have a history of good posts (Rai, for one). Therefore I move on to the next best choice for a lynch.

But really, Brick is an invaluable player, planet-sized ego or not. When he has a power role, like in M1, he kills, and he did pull that game off brilliantly. When he doesn't, his hyper-aggressive style usually hits its target. Usually.
No, I can't agree with this. M1 brickroad is a flawed example for the same reason M2W Nich is: The setup was hilariously broken, favoring the town massively, because once the Cop comes out the mafia needs to hit both Docs in order to have a chance at hitting the Cop. ANY player with the cop role takes control of the game, unless the Docs die early.
To compare, M5 brickroad usually hit his target, and his target was almost always a townie. This isn't bad luck: It's constant bad analysis on his part.

Kylie
09-18-2010, 02:54 PM
Even so, much as you dislike him, Brick has some valuable traits -- he strategizes well, and he rallies townies exceptionally. Whether or not his target is town, or mafia, chances are pretty good that when he gets a good rage on, someone he doesn't like dies. He leads, and that's pretty valuable -- the outlaws are going to try and fracture us. That's the very best situation for them -- one in which we have multiple factions raging against each other, and they can sit back and watch. Brickroad, divisive as he is, is still somehow a uniter. Right now, for me, that's as good a reason as any to keep watching him for signs of outlaw-hood, and believe me, I'll drop on him like a ton of bricks if I think he's any kind of out of line. But it's not a good reason to kill him YET.

But I mean, my definition of "good reason" is pretty broad.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 03:24 PM
brickroad is still holding a grudge against me

brickroad has been holding a grudge against me for reasons that make no sense to me

I don't hold a grudge against you. I just think you're the worst player here, and my Day One strategy is always to kill the worst player.

As for the rest of your points:

-brickroad has never been a valuable town player on his own. In M1 it was the sheer power of a Cop backed by two Docs that made him powerful, and even then he never caught mafia. In M5 he caught shivam, and yet led many other townies to the slaughter.

My M1 strategy was to build an unsinkable voting block. That won us the game. There were complications but there always are. In the end the mob surrendered because it was mathematically impossible for them to win, thanks in no small part to my efforts.

"lol brick missed six times in a row" is a humorous sound byte, but it's really irrelevant. It was my strategy that won M1, not my ability to finger mobsters.

As far as M5 goes (didn't you say you weren't going to bring up past games?), yes, I led many townies to the slaughter -- because I'm not good at fingering bad guys. Say what you want about M5, dude, but I didn't have a lot of support as far as picking targets goes.

You know what would have really helped us pick targets in M5? A MOTHERFUCKING SENSATE.

-To compare, whenever brickroad is mafia, his real advantages come up: brickroad is a born leader, and people follow him almost anywhere. Town doesn't get too much from this trait, but mafia with a natural leader are inherently much more powerful than maifa without one.

I've only been mafia once, and in that game I wasn't a leader. I was a saboteur, and I died early. Dude, did you even read M3?

-Enough metagame analysis? Here's another fact: brickroad's town game is usually aggressive, and he doesn't shy away from early votes. Here, brickroad has not voted yet, despite saying that he is willing to.

I still don't understand this little tidbit. Sometimes I accuse sometimes I threaten accusations. In a game where you can switch whenever you want, there's no functional difference. The end goal of an early-day threat isn't to kill someone, anyway, it's to get them talking. A threat does that just as well as an accusation, in my experience.

And though I haven't made an accusation yet, I don't think anyone can argue I haven't been aggressive.

Now, the third fact I brought up is suspicious, but not enough to pin brickroad as mafia. However, I do agree that we should off the worst town player on day 1.

Vote brickroad

I hope the irony of calling me the worst player while adopting the exact strategy I suggested is not lost on you.

Destil
09-18-2010, 03:26 PM
I'm still waiting on Brickroad to give me a reason to vote for someone else, myself.

I asked what he could do for me and his answer was: I'll be your (and Nich's and Merus' and Byron's) friend. And the idea of putting 4 brains vs. the outlaws instead of everyone just doesn't sit well with me.

And if his better lynch target is Alpha, I'm sticking with Brick. Byron's right in that Alpha's abrasive and hard to deal with, but actually not a terrible player. Likewise, Brick's said an awful lot already today, but none of his sentences started with 'I accuse.'

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 03:28 PM
I am exasperated that so many people are riding my ass about how much I suck about picking bad guys, and at the same time calling it super-suspicious that I haven't accused anyone yet.

Destil
09-18-2010, 03:32 PM
I am exasperated that so many people are riding my ass about how much I suck about picking bad guys, and at the same time calling it super-suspicious that I haven't accused anyone yet.

Come on, Brick. I just threw that line out there because you've always been so fond of it in the past. If your response to my question is "I can help you come up with a good strategy" then I'm not so sure... Merus was the one who kicked your ass into giving us a strategy and your suggestion was 'Listen to Merus(and these other people).' Why shouldn't I just kill you and cut out the middle man?

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 03:33 PM
Seeing Brick furiously showing Alpha how to tie his shoes, so to speak, has already made this game awesome.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 03:42 PM
Come on, Brick. I just threw that line out there because you've always been so fond of it in the past. If your response to my question is "I can help you come up with a good strategy" then I'm not so sure... Merus was the one who kicked your ass into giving us a strategy and your suggestion was 'Listen to Merus(and these other people).' Why shouldn't I just kill you and cut out the middle man?

I said "I'm willing to let [four dudes] take the reins" was because Merus had just gotten done yelling at me for railing against Byron. You yourself assured me that you'd be able to catch Byron if he's a villain, because you are good where I am not. That I should have caught him in M5, and that my fears that he's uncatchable are unfounded.

My response to that was: "Cool, I'll give you guys the benefit of the doubt."

The reason I listed four names instead of just one is because that the chances that any one person is a villain are non-negligible. If I were to say, "Let's all let Destil pick guys for us," and Destil turns out to be a villain (or is converted), then we're screwed. But chances of Destil and Byron and Merus and Nich all being villains is pretty remote, at least on Day One. So if there is some consensus between the four of those players, I would feel good about following it.

As far as my Day One strategy, it's never very popular, and I think the reason it's not is because it's mean. Nobody wants to be the guy who looks at another player and says, "I'm sorry, but I don't think you're very good at this game." Especially not on a forum as friendly as this one. The strat has only ever met lukewarm reception in the past, and I don't think it's because it's a flawed strategy. It's because it's boring, predictable, and will always target the same people in every game.

Plus, it doesn't work very well if you have people who are not playing in good faith. We got burned by it pretty hard in M5, because it sort of assumes that all the players are playing optimally, and of course not all of them always are.

So I don't know what you want from me, Destil. If you want me to give you a strategy, well, it's the same as always: we should kill the worst player. If you want me to pick a target, well, it's Day One and there's no information to draw suspicions from (and I'm bad at that anyway). If you don't want me to do either of these things, I'm not real sure what other moves there are in Mafia... but I'm sure I could find some more amusing cheeseburgers to post.

If the consensus is that we should kill the worst player, and that player is me, and I'm just too blind to see it... then I will kick and scream all the way to the grave. But then I'll win a month from now when the game ends, so it'll have been worth it.

If it's going to such a big sticking point, though: I accuse Alpha Werewolf.

(Although, shivam, please clarify: Are you ending the day Sunday or Monday night? I think you posted something about shifting it forward to Sunday since the game started early, but I can't find the post now.)

widdershins
09-18-2010, 03:43 PM
Y'all boys enjoy your pissing match, but I'm not inclined to accuse either of ya of anything beyond exchangin' some ugly words, an' that ain't a crime from where I'm standing.

I've taken some time to re-assess what you guys have been saying, and despite what I've said previously, I do think I have a pretty good gauge on a day one lynch, but I want to let things develop a tad more, lest I find I'm acting hastily. You'll see it, and my reasoning later on tonight.

McClain
09-18-2010, 03:52 PM
Hey, Alpha is back and talking strategy. And pissing off Brickroad.

I'm not seeing anyone right now who is trying to hurt the town. That is hard to detect without a voting record anyhow, so I still say we're best off eliminating the weakest link. That's no longer Alpha in my mind.

Javex, meanwhile, has said exactly squat of value. Mostly making jokes and boosting his post count while not actually contributing.

Destil
09-18-2010, 03:56 PM
I said "I'm willing to let [four dudes] take the reins" was because Merus had just gotten done yelling at me for railing against Byron. You yourself assured me that you'd be able to catch Byron if he's a villain, because you are good where I am not.
Not entirely my point, I'm not sure that I could have caught Byron, specically. But Mr J. did and no one listened to him, it was more of pointout out what a warning sign it should be when you constanlly think "we should lynch X" and not doing it.

As far as my Day One strategy, it's never very popular, and I think the reason it's not is because it's mean. Nobody wants to be the guy who looks at another player and says, "I'm sorry, but I don't think you're very good at this game." Especially not on a forum as friendly as this one. The strat has only ever met lukewarm reception in the past, and I don't think it's because it's a flawed strategy. It's because it's boring, predictable, and will always target the same people in every game.

Nich, actually, has an alternate strategy right now (kill the person you lean the most from). It's one I've used before in the early game and never really had any success with, but it's worth thinking about. Perhaps we should do both? The idea kill solution would be something like:

A) Kill the person is most likely to be mafia.
B) In the event you do not have a person 'most likely to be mafia' kill someone who will most likely give you evidence about the mafia.
C) In the event you do not have someone who will give you evidence about the mafia, kill someone who won't benefit the good guys.

But is there anyone who we could actually learn something from and who we wouldn't miss?

So I don't know what you want from me, Destil. If you want me to give you a strategy, well, it's the same as always: we should kill the worst player. If you want me to pick a target, well, it's Day One and there's no information to draw suspicions from (and I'm bad at that anyway). If you don't want me to do either of these things, I'm not real sure what other moves there are in Mafia... but I'm sure I could find some more amusing cheeseburgers to post.

If the consensus is that we should kill the worst player, and that player is me, and I'm just too blind to see it... then I will kick and scream all the way to the grave. But then I'll win a month from now when the game ends, so it'll have been worth it.

Fair enough. I've been thinking about the day one numbers a lot and I'm not sure that there is a good solution. I'll post my thoughts on it a bit later, and perhaps give the thread a rescan to see if anyone stands out as doing anything particularly suspect.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 03:58 PM
My read on Javex: he's a damn canny player, but he needs time to build a cache of information. He's going to drop potshots the first day or two, but he'll hit the ground running later. Definitely not worth losing.

Alpha Werewolf
09-18-2010, 03:58 PM
I don't hold a grudge against you.
If I have a grudge against anyone it's Alpha.

My M1 strategy was to build an unsinkable voting block. That won us the game. There were complications but there always are. In the end the mob surrendered because it was mathematically impossible for them to win, thanks in no small part to my efforts.

"lol brick missed six times in a row" is a humorous sound byte, but it's really irrelevant. It was my strategy that won M1, not my ability to finger mobsters.

As far as M5 goes (didn't you say you weren't going to bring up past games?), yes, I led many townies to the slaughter -- because I'm not good at fingering bad guys. Say what you want about M5, dude, but I didn't have a lot of support as far as picking targets goes.

You know what would have really helped us pick targets in M5? A MOTHERFUCKING SENSATE.
No. I am arguing that you are consistently a bad analyst and therefore contribute very little to any town faction you are a part of. That is not the same as saying that you made a mistake (And I still don't believe I made a mistake there, but that's irrelevant) and therefore you are a terrible player.

I've only been mafia once, and in that game I wasn't a leader. I was a saboteur, and I died early. Dude, did you even read M3?
I didn't refer to M3 in that part. It was analysis of your advantages on the mafia side in general, not analysis of your M3 performance.

I still don't understand this little tidbit. Sometimes I accuse sometimes I threaten accusations. In a game where you can switch whenever you want, there's no functional difference. The end goal of an early-day threat isn't to kill someone, anyway, it's to get them talking. A threat does that just as well as an accusation, in my experience.

And though I haven't made an accusation yet, I don't think anyone can argue I haven't been aggressive.
And although you say there's no functional difference, there is one: You won't show up on any votelog analysises, and that's better for a mafia player.

I hope the irony of calling me the worst player while adopting the exact strategy I suggested is not lost on you.
Why is this in any way ironic? Just because you're a bad player doesn't automatically disqualify any strategy you suggest.


In other news: I have no idea what to do with Dizzy.

McClain
09-18-2010, 03:59 PM
Weren't you in M5?

Briefly. :rolleyes:

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 04:02 PM
Alpha, do you know what the word "if" means? I don't bring grudges into Mafia. But if I did, it would be against you, for botching Day One of M5 so badly.

If you really think the two of us have beef, let's take it to PM and discuss it. Mafia is a game.

No. I am arguing that you are consistently a bad analyst and therefore contribute very little to any town faction you are a part of.

Except in M1, where I led the team to victory, and M2 where I was extremely influential in getting people talking and motivated. I admit I didn't help the town much in M3 (where I didn't want to help the town), or in M4 (where I was hoping smarter people would just win it for me), but those games aside my track record is still two-to-one.

And although you say there's no functional difference, there is one: You won't show up on any votelog analysises, and that's better for a mafia player.

Hmm. Good point. Anyway, the problem has been fixed. I've now accused you.

Why is this in any way ironic? Just because you're a bad player doesn't automatically disqualify any strategy you suggest.

"Brick had a good strategy. Let's kill him for being the worst player!"

I want someone to Photoshop that on my tombstone, once I'm lynched. =)

In other news: I have no idea what to do with Dizzy.

Fear not. This indicates only that you are still sane.

widdershins
09-18-2010, 04:07 PM
"Brick had a good strategy. Let's kill him for being the worst player!"


I think his rationale there is that your strategies are a matter of public record at this point, but that the actions you may take could be harmful. This re-opens the "am I shitty for not voting or am I shitty for voting poorly" debate, so I'm gonna offer that explanation but tack on that I've yet to make a value judgement of it.


In other news: I have no idea what to do with Dizzy.

As one of his minders, I can offer that he's definitely not making me suspicious of yet. He's given what I felt was a solid argument for not lynching people. The only semi-suspicious thing he's done is given the idea of randomizing our watchlist, which I feel only serves to de-focus our individual investigations, but I'm willing to chalk that up to a legitimate difference of opinion, and not necessarily anything insidious.

widdershins
09-18-2010, 04:16 PM
I'm for randomizing the watchlist each day, for what it's worth. For one thing, it makes sure people aren't so focused on a pair of players that they miss obvious things in other people's histories, and for another, a player assigned to dig through one of the more frequent posters' digests for the entire game stands a greater risk of burning out and getting sloppy. Varying it up some would be beneficial to the town, IMO.

So noted. My only counter-argument is that I feel that having a consistent watchlist gives one a better accounting of a players' personal history. If it's switching up on a daily basis, it means that the person who's assigned person X on day 3 may miss something compiled by his previous minder, and as such might not notice potentially suspicious or inconsistent behavior. Flip side of that coin, beyond the burnout factor for someone like Torgo (pulling Destil AND Brick! Ouch) is that a poor detective will be a huge detriment if one of their charges is an outlaw.

My two cents.

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 04:17 PM
Nich has it. Also, how are we going to set this up exactly?

I'd wait for Eddie's take, but I think this should happen by the end of the Day Phase. Should have players produce their results in the middle of the Day Phase or at the end of the Day Phase or after the Day Phase? Or should only specific players call up their results when asked by the majority of the players?

I think the results should be given at the beginning of each Day Phase, no matter what happens, and also because the task might too cumbersome. Having to produce watch lists of during intervals of the game may just turn the game into one big bureaucratic study-and-report dealie, when really it should be secondary function.

Destil
09-18-2010, 05:33 PM
How about the person we lynch randomizes the list, and if they're mafia we keep it as is? No way to trust someone doing it otherwise (though trying to influence the randomization otherwise would be both sort of ineffective and really prone to error)...

Kylie
09-18-2010, 05:35 PM
The purpose of the watchlist is to have a constant and consistent eye on other players; I think this is hurt by switching up watchers. To wit, we're spreading our watchers much thinner -- right now, I'm keeping character profiles on six people, two of which are my charges. My character profiles are better the fewer I have to keep.

If we randomize, by day 4 I'll have 14 profiles, all of which will essentially only be useful for one game-day. You'll get better information out of me and, I believe, out of anyone else, the fewer people we have to watch on a dedicated basis.

Additionally, let's say I have to watch... oh... widdershins on day 3. What this means is that I have to do three days worth of digest for him. On day four I get Javex, and have to do four days worth of digest for him.

Ultimately, randomizing the watchlist every day means the work it takes to keep solid tabs on one's charges grows exponentially every day. What THAT means is that it's more likely that individuals won't keep up with it.

On top of THAT, the watchlist increases in value as the game goes on. As the game goes on, outlaws will make up a greater proportion of the list, and have greater influence over it. This means that they can misrepresent only their charges, in a fixed list, or potentially EVERYONE, in a random list. This means more misinformation.

Randomlist is a bad idea.

Nichelbach, there are plenty of things one can learn from hanging an innocent; but when you hang an innocent who has not participated extensively, you're minimizing what you can learn. We do not learn exactly as much from a Civvie Lynch on Wheels as we would from one on me, or on Brickroad, or on you. And besides, you think that the clumsiness he exhibits is representative of New Outlaw Blood, but it's just as likely it could be New Townie Blood. It doesn't make him sinister; just new. You also state that if he's outlaw it exonerates the people he's aggressed; it does nothing of the sort. Especially not as early as he did it.

So yeah, I'm willing to call your statements re: Wheels essentially untrue.

Kylie
09-18-2010, 05:57 PM
You misrepresent me.

If we are going to hang someone to try and gather info from their death, then we shouldn't hang someone who hasn't participated much. If we're going to hang someone for being an outlaw, then fine.

widdershins
09-18-2010, 06:20 PM
If we're going to hang someone for being an outlaw, then fine.

And with that, I'm going to come out and say that I'm backing up Nich.

I accuse Wheels

I realized he won't be posting any more today (real time) so waiting around won't make much difference in the matter.

Nich brings up some good points. Aside from playful banter, he's made all of 3 posts related to the game at hand:
1) Accusing dtsund (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=856545&postcount=56)
2) Recanting, then accusing JohnB (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=856572&postcount=61)
3) Applauding a sure to be popular strategy and reaffirming his accusation. (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=857029&postcount=181)

Now, while I find the rapid-fire accusations puzzling in their own right, that's not why I aim to put him in the hot seat. Both accusations had already been made before he seconded them. If he is outlaw, I figure his thought process to be as follows:

1) Not voting at all makes me stand out.
2) Voting for an innocent makes me look suspicious
HOWEVER
3) If someone else initiates the vote, I can deflect suspicion onto them.

Because of this, dtsund made a perfect candidate, however as soon as he launched into it, people took notice. He backed off, but found himself in the same predicament and was quick to latch on to another person who'd been accused already, this time one who'd already taken some heat for misreading his own accusations. While Nich was quick to latch on, other folks were quick to try and cool him down, which gave him the confidence to reassert his accusation later on without fear of reproach.

I think our boy Wheels tipped his hand too early. I'm not sayin' this makes him one of the bad guys for sure, I'm just sayin' that it's as close as I feel we're going to get to actionable behavior in round one. Guilty or no, he's shown himself to be green and as I've stated, I'm definitely in favor of Brick's line of thinking on that front, if I can say so without too much hypocrisy.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 06:30 PM
The case against Wheels is fairly strong, but so is the counter-case: it's new player jitters.

Getting a whiff of M3 Nodal here. I was content to let Nodal go down without defending him then, because he was a townie and a townie death made me happy. But Wheels? Jesus, I don't even think I knew we had a dude named Wheels on the forums.

In the past I've advocated giving first-time players a free ticket to Day Two, and I think we should hold to that. Javex in M5 is a good example of why: it took him a while to find his bearings, but once he did he proved to be pretty valuable. If only that tall drink of Mercykiller cocksucker had listened to him more!

Javex
09-18-2010, 06:42 PM
Javex, meanwhile, has said exactly squat of value. Mostly making jokes and boosting his post count while not actually contributing.

I'm not gonna lie - during my stay in Sigil, I learned that I was terrible at strategy conversations. It's not my strength. So much of it is pure theory and speculation that I can't wrap my mind around it. And that's mostly what Day 1 is, natch.

Now people on the other hand? I'm not terrible at figuring out people, but I'm not on board the AW or Wheels lynchmobile yet.

Plus, one of the things I tend to look at that seems to favor mafia are people who talk in theory over reality. Once again, on Day 1, not a great tactic. I'm basically useless today.

Javex
09-18-2010, 06:43 PM
If only that tall drink of Mercykiller cocksucker had listened to him more!

Yeah, FUCK that guy!

Luh yuuuuu.

Eddie
09-18-2010, 07:00 PM
I think if we're going to have a watchlist, it's got to be as uncomplicated as possible. While I like the idea of randomizing the list each day in spirit, in practice I imagine it to be frustrating to be forced to suddenly keep track of two completely different players.

I'm not particularly worried about the Diamonbacks manipulating the list; the trick is that if we say 'hey, Brickroad, whatcha got on Rai?' and Brickroad's results don't measure up, then we've got some cause for concern re: Brickroad. I know there was a lot of paranoia of PRCYs abusing a set list, but in practice I'm not sure if a 'daily Snake-Oil-Salesman' really tried to abuse it; better to pick the best players to convert rather than the ones that might cut a little less heat.

So TL/DR let's just keep Shivam's list.

- Eddie

p.s. a personal note before I'm gone until tomorrow afternoon: I like widdershins more than Wheels as mafia. I find him to be more manipulative.

Javex
09-18-2010, 07:05 PM
p.s. a personal note before I'm gone until tomorrow afternoon: I like widdershins more than Wheels as mafia. I find him to be more manipulative.

Funny you mention him, Eddie - I've found myself thinking the same.

Also of note: Nich. Nich haphazardly threw out the "go down for the team" line, then handwaved it away by saying he'd still fight it. If this was, say, Umby, I'd just wave it away as somebody doing something silly as a spur of the moment thing. I'm more inclined to believe that Nich is a thoughtful, careful player, and he does nothing without reason.

So what's the reason for throwing that little tidbit out there? Throw the scent off - if he willingly throws the rope around his neck, who among us has the stones to pull it tight? We've shown in the past that we're not always willing to make that move, even with people who CLEARLY DESERVE IT, but more because we tend to think of those people as useful. Nich is clearly useful. But to which side?

Tock
09-18-2010, 07:29 PM
I can't believe you assholes are going on about killing the "most useless player" again. Name one time that this has paid off in Mafia? Well, ok, M2W offed Silent Noise. But that kid was one hell of an outlier.

I can tell you right now that I was thrilled as shit anytime I was mafia and this strategy was proposed. You post just enough to beat the lowest common denominator and avoid the lynch, and we string up some poor townie (or the sensate, lols). The following day, it's nigh-impossible to follow your tracks, because everyone went along with it because oh my god it's such a great plan you guys. I mean hell, what's the absolute best case scenario? We kill the worst outlaw? We're still left with the really good outlaws, most of whom are already laying down false leads to their advantage.

Look, if you want to give the big guns a day or so to possibly implicate themselves, then whatever, we'll leave Brick's Top Four (or whatever arbitrary measure you want to use) alone for today. But fear about losing "our best players" will cost us the game. Reasoning like, "We need Byron or Merus on our team to win the game!" is a losing strategy. You are depending on a variable that is outside your control. Did you join this game to help Merus win? Because he might not be on your team!

Anyone who says, "I don't think we can win if So-And-So isn't on our side," is saying, "I can't fucking win Mafia." The reality is that we are going to have to start going after the big targets sooner than later, and people need to sack up about it. We're going to quickly approach the point that we're better off having some of these guys dead than we are having them against us. Will the town suffer if we lose a brain? Yeah, admittedly. But not as much as the outlaws will if we off one of their vets.

My targets of choice at the moment remain Tock and Nich.

Do go on.

Umby
09-18-2010, 07:37 PM
Ok. I'm back from all the repenting, I've been to the saloon to stock up on some griddles, and now I'm back. Here's what I'm thinking.

First of all, Brickroad, you are carrying grudges. This is neither healthy or helpful to anyone, and mostly just pisses people off. Knock it off.

Widdershins, you're right on the money about who we should be looking at, however, I believe that quiet people are people who we should be looking at right now. Torgo has made all of three posts, and they have been very helpful, meaning that he wants to be in the game, but... he's been absent. Stuff like that probably isn't incriminating at all, but mafia members CAN pull back, watch the chaos fly, and come in at the last second and help that chaos along, and still look innocent. Therefore, Torgo, Spineshark and Rai are on my radar.

All three of them are really good players, as I know from experience, and Rai espeically has a tendency to fly under the beforementioned radar (which almost got him scanned an unmeasurable amount of times in M4U). I want to hear more from him especially.

However, Martinet, when we let him live last game, really helped fog things around last game. I think Wheels is in a similar situation right now, and as much as I hate killing the new guys, because that's just not right, Wheels hasn't shown much worth. As for right now, I'm voting for Wheels.

Umby
09-18-2010, 07:40 PM
I can tell you right now that I was thrilled as shit anytime I was mafia and this strategy was proposed. You post just enough to beat the lowest common denominator and avoid the lynch, and we string up some poor townie (or the sensate, lols). The following day, it's nigh-impossible to follow your tracks, because everyone went along with it because oh my god it's such a great plan you guys. I mean hell, what's the absolute best case scenario? We kill the worst outlaw? We're still left with the really good outlaws, most of whom are already laying down false leads to their advantage.


Or this, makes a lot of sense. But killing one of the higher ups can really kill citizen morale and activity. I don't see it as a good move on the first day. However, we could always string up someone good and silent like the three I said in my previous post. Is this a good idea to follow up on?

Tock
09-18-2010, 07:45 PM
But killing one of the higher ups can really kill citizen morale and activity.

Ironically, this cost the Mafia the game in M1. Anyway, it's a problem we have to deal with as it comes; the upside (I'm hoping) to this game is that even our quiet posters (the Rais and Torgos) are Mafia vets who are in it to win it.

I don't see it as a good move on the first day. However, we could always string up someone good and silent like the three I said in my previous post. Is this a good idea to follow up on?

It might not be a great Day One move, I'll allow that, but the time is going to come soon, and people like widdershins are already trying to talk themselves out of it, just like Brick did in M5.

Anyway, I'm not for killing someone who's quiet just to kill a quiet person, nor am I for killing someone who seems dumb just because dumb. Nich's reasoning above (gambling that a rookie outlaw made a gaffe) is probably the safest Day One move to my mind, though I'm not feeling Wheels for that particular role just yet.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 07:48 PM
First of all, Brickroad, you are carrying grudges. This is neither healthy or helpful to anyone, and mostly just pisses people off. Knock it off.

There is literally not a single move I could make, or a single thing I could say, or a single strategy I could implement that wouldn't piss someone off. I guess I'd rather it be you than someone important.

Tock
09-18-2010, 07:49 PM
Pissing people off is pretty much how Brick plays Mafia.

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 07:53 PM
Randomlist is a bad idea.

'Randomlist' isn't really supposed to endorse that amount of work though. You're not going to do X amount of days of player you are suddenly charged with profiling, only player profiling for that day only. The previous days of profiling are the other players responsibility.

But yeah... I can see how randomizing the list to that extent would enable the mafia misrepresenting everyone on the list. (Though technically that's not supposed to happen because digests can always be cross-referenced and compared/contrasted with other digests to look for gaps, inconsistencies or manipulation. That's if we hold the digests to an agreed-upon criteria and take some time during the game to challenge/discuss the information everyone has.)

That seems like a lot of work, though -- not to mention time-wasting even though it would aide the detective work somewhat. So, I guess we can stick with the original strategy for now. I like the idea that if we catch one mafia on the list, and his digests don't add up, we can be hopeful that one of his/her subjects are equally guilty and perhaps draw larger patterns from that.

Kylie
09-18-2010, 08:00 PM
'Randomlist' isn't really supposed to endorse that amount of work though. You're not going to do X amount of days of player you are suddenly charged with profiling, only player profiling for that day only. The previous days of profiling are the other players responsibility.


If you don't profile the player on previous days, you're essentially acting without context, and hoping your charge does something dumb like accidentally talks about the Speakeasy or says "Hey, Torgo, it's great to be Outlaws, huh?" Context is important to everything we're doing here.

Dizzy
09-18-2010, 08:08 PM
That's not necessarily so. You do have context: the profiles from the previous profilers. If you see your subjects doing something that the other profiler didn't catch that looks suspicious or notice in an inconsistency of behavior of your subjects compared to the other days, that's a tip-off right there. Well, in theory that's how it should work. The point is to keep everyone on guard and sharp, including the outlaws who think they suddenly have it made because they get to cover for their buddies on the list.

Umby
09-18-2010, 08:18 PM
There is literally not a single move I could make, or a single thing I could say, or a single strategy I could implement that wouldn't piss someone off. I guess I'd rather it be you than someone important.

Just letting you know, don't think Alpha Werewolf is feeling too hot right now, and the past is the past. Let it go. There are many things you could say and implement right now that wouldn't piss someone off. Do so. Like, not calling me insignificant, thanks.


Anyway, I'm not for killing someone who's quiet just to kill a quiet person, nor am I for killing someone who seems dumb just because dumb. Nich's reasoning above (gambling that a rookie outlaw made a gaffe) is probably the safest Day One move to my mind, though I'm not feeling Wheels for that particular role just yet.

Ok, and that's completely fine. I think, though, that getting rid of Wheels now, at this point in the day, feels like the best move. Martinet last game really made a big smokescreen, and mafia can really very easily use him as a meatshield. It's better to get rid of him now, since he's being very suspicious, and make a safe guess this turn, than take a potshot and someone who we know would contribute well if they were on the citizen team.

Brickroad
09-18-2010, 08:28 PM
Just letting you know, don't think Alpha Werewolf is feeling too hot right now, and the past is the past. Let it go. There are many things you could say and implement right now that wouldn't piss someone off. Do so. Like, not calling me insignificant, thanks.

I'll remind you that I didn't come out strong against Alpha until Merus demanded I give him a strategy (I did threaten him early, but quickly shifted gears to Byron). And then I didn't actually accuse him until Destil called me a pussy. That's quite a lot of arm-twisting for what you consider to be an irrational grudge.

Don't get me wrong, it's not that I'm out to dance on Alpha's grave or to insult your delicate sensibilities. It's just that, I want to win. Even if that means I have to step on toes or hurt some feelings. Mafia is a hard game, and I play it hard, and I've been playing it hard since we started playing in January.

We all carry our baggage into this, our sixth game. Anyone have a Magic Eight Ball? I hereby predict that, a couple days from now, you (Umby) will say something really dumb or weird that you will immediately regret. You'll then spend the rest of the day trying to backpedal while everyone else attempts to make sense of it. Someone will say, "Umby slipped up! We need to lynch him!" and someone else will say, "No, that's just Umby bein' Umby," and then some third cat will be like "Yeah but the first game we give Umby a pass, that'll be the game he's Mafia. Just you watch!"

There will be this long discussion about whether or not we can really risk it, that late in the game, and everyone will have it without paying much attention to you anymore. Because you're our Umby! And that's how Umby is. And then we'll lynch you, and you'll be innocent (probably), and we'll be like "fuck, that was stupid, we should know better than to ever lynch Umby."

It is Day One, my man. The only thing we have to go on today is past experience. My past experience tells me to leave you alone on Day One, to give the newbies a pass, and that Alpha Werewolf doesn't play this game in good faith. When it's Day Two maybe I'll have more to go on, if I'm still alive.

Umby
09-18-2010, 08:44 PM
That's all I wanted to hear. And I completely agree with you, I'll make the same mistake and it'll all happen again. I'm trying my hardest to be more involved and not make that mistake. Just I know it'll happen.

Of course, I believe that Alpha Werewolf is smart enough to contribute, he just hasn't been doing so. Just keep your ears up. Unlike you, though, I believe that today should be used to root out the smokescreens, unless we have something much better to go on. That's why I have my vote as Wheels, currently.

widdershins
09-18-2010, 08:50 PM
I like widdershins more than Wheels as mafia. I find him to be more manipulative.

A reasonable assertion, considering. Hope I'll put your mind at ease some by the end of this post.

I'm more inclined to believe that Nich is a thoughtful, careful player, and he does nothing without reason.

I agree, and I've got a close eye on him. However, despite the potential gaff early on, I can't fault his logic just yet.

Nich's reasoning above (gambling that a rookie outlaw made a gaffe) is probably the safest Day One move to my mind, though I'm not feeling Wheels for that particular role just yet.

This is the crux of it.

Now, look -- I flipflopped. I started out by saying I wasn't about to jump on any accusations until a good portion of people were of a like mind, and then I turned around and pointed a finger. Perhaps not the safest move, but it wasn't without reason.

I was operating under the assumption that we weren't going to get much to work with on day one, and with that as a given, I don't know that pouncing on the weak or the quiet players is a terrible strategy, since it's the most we have to work with unless someone slips up -- I wasn't in a position to gauge either of those things (quiet's relative, after all), so I figured I'd go with the flow on the opening. When Nich brought up the wheels thing at first, I shrugged it off, as it didn't seem all that big a deal to me.

When I started combing back through things, though, it stuck out for the reasons listed above. Wheels, like myself, is new, but certain things struck me. It strikes me that making an early accusation (and one based on someone making an accusation too early, no less) is the move of someone that understands they can't keep too quiet lest they avoid arousing suspicion. Furthermore, it seems to me like a green townie would keep quiet after being called out, rather than reach for a new target. The timbre of the response struck me as someone who saw a sight moving to their head, wanted to deflect it quickly, and possibly spoke quicker than they should have.

I'll admit that it's not a lot, but it's more than I was expecting to get from day one, and at present, it seems like the most feasible option. He'll be back tomorrow with a chance to defend himself, and more of us might put our foot in our mouths before then, so I'm not above having my mind changed -- it just seems like the best move available at this place and time.

Granted, I've as little ammunition to prove my own innocence than I do to prove another's guilt, but consider that the flipflop, as well as calling out an inexperienced player when I myself am similarly inexperienced would be fairly rash moves to make if I were actively trying to avoid suspicion. I like my neck where it is, thanks.

Eddie
09-18-2010, 08:51 PM
There is literally not a single move I could make, or a single thing I could say, or a single strategy I could implement that wouldn't piss someone off. I guess I'd rather it be you than someone important.

Brick, I still liked you after it was discovered that you were playin' me all along in M3. There is nothing you could say that could make me mad. Not even little cracks about being a communist. I'm going to have fun watching you enevitably try tho.

I really don't like Wheels as a Diamondback. An outlawwould be waaaaay more careful than he's been. Every game, people use weak justification like that to try and lynch someone (re: Umby) and I'd say 90% of the time it doesn't work.

Mafia play smarter than I think your average innocent civilian would like to believe. Don't look for the guy making stupid comments, look at the other guy who is calling out the guy for those stupid comments.

- Eddie

Umby
09-18-2010, 08:54 PM
Ok, so who do you suggest we lynch? The whole reason my vote is on Wheels right now is because he will be a smokescreen later in the game, and will draw votes. I'm perfectly fine with changing, give me a better target. Wheels probably isn't guilty, but this lynch is more of a convenience lynch than anything, and if he's mafia, then hooray!

I see what you mean, though. If Wheels, a newbie, was mafia, he'd probably be more quiet than he's been. So again I ask, what is the course of action? Quiet veteran? Or something more specific?

Kylie
09-18-2010, 08:58 PM
Here's what I'd do if I was mafia, today.

I'd try to make friends.

Tock
09-18-2010, 09:03 PM
Here's what I'd do if I was mafia, today.

I'd try to make friends.

Ok, so this is what you were getting at. You can mentally amend my earlier series of posts to read something like, "Byron and I both think that townies need to be more cautious on Day One, but that being said, he is a Grade-A douchebag."

(Seriously though guys, think things through this round. Smart mafioso play pretty damn thoughtful on Day One; go and do likewise.)

FYI, being standoffish and making enemies instead don't mean the hat you're wearing ain't black, hombre. Especially in a game with a Snitch role.

Merus
09-18-2010, 09:06 PM
You are depending on a variable that is outside your control. Did you join this game to help Merus win? Because he might not be on your team!

I totally did, but then I have assurances that Merus is on my team.

I forget who I'm supposed to be keeping an eye on, but Byron is already tweaking my sus meter.

Anyway, there's a fete on today, so Mafia gets low priority. I see nothing of import's really happened.

dtsund
09-18-2010, 09:13 PM
Okay, I think Brickroad's had his feet to the fire long enough. Nothing he's said has struck me as really suspicious since I accused him yesterday, and, regardless of his past record, I also don't think he's the most useless player here either (his talk of going for the player least likely to help is, I think, sound; Tock's objection falls apart, I think, because there's no consensus here on who the weakest player is). I've got my eye on Wheels, too; I think it's quite possible that he gave himself away, but as someone else has already said(?): he could just be Umby Jr.

You know who's said a whole lot of nuthin', though? Namelessentity. Maybe if I accuse him, we can get him to talk...

I retract my accusation of Brickroad.
I accuse namelessentity.

Rai
09-18-2010, 09:22 PM
Mafia play smarter than I think your average innocent civilian would like to believe. Don't look for the guy making stupid comments, look at the other guy who is calling out the guy for those stupid comments.

Ah, but that's just want you to think! Clearly, they're the people who subtly make other people call out the guy for making stupid comments! Or maybe they're choosing out the people who will be threats to them later on by making stupid comments! Or maybe....

As fun as that game is, we have had instances where the enemies of the civvies have made stupid mistakes. A lot of us didn't notice them at the time, but a closer examination would have shown them up to be errors. Of course, civilians make mistakes as well, so this isn't exactly fool proof either.

So with that in mind, I fully suggest we lynch whoever is perfect in every way, shape or form. No I don't, that'd be stupid. And impossible.

Stuff has appeared since I last posted too, and honestly, the noise is just as bad. If I wasn't sure of the low numbers that we have, I'd be worried that we have a lot of Diamondbacks. As is, I'm only afraid that they're setting up a smokescreen with a lot of posts. I'm fully sure at least one of them is.

Additionally! I wanted to end this by saying that I don't know if Wheels is guilty or not! I say wanted to, because I actually went back and reviewed Wheels' statements, and... not only is there not much there, but he threw out his first vote on Dtsund on page 2 (Who had two posts to his name, an accusation in his first), and then switched candidates to JohnB (6 posts, 1 accusation). His reasoning behind this wasn't "First day jitters", but because he was convinced to change his vote (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=856587#post856587) and that he smells a snake in one of them two (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=856603#post856603). Now, this isn't a lot to go on, but that's really quick to make an accusation. I'm not certain yet as to if he's guilty or not, but unless something changes by the time I have to go off and be social tomorrow, I might throw in with that. Chances are good it's a newbie error, but it's a really weird newbie error.

Destil
09-18-2010, 09:45 PM
We all carry our baggage into this, our sixth game. Anyone have a Magic Eight Ball? I hereby predict that, a couple days from now, you (Umby) will say something really dumb or weird that you will immediately regret. You'll then spend the rest of the day trying to backpedal while everyone else attempts to make sense of it. Someone will say, "Umby slipped up! We need to lynch him!" and someone else will say, "No, that's just Umby bein' Umby," and then some third cat will be like "Yeah but the first game we give Umby a pass, that'll be the game he's Mafia. Just you watch!"

There will be this long discussion about whether or not we can really risk it, that late in the game, and everyone will have it without paying much attention to you anymore. Because you're our Umby! And that's how Umby is. And then we'll lynch you, and you'll be innocent (probably), and we'll be like "fuck, that was stupid, we should know better than to ever lynch Umby."

Oh, man. I'm tempted to change my vote just to see you posting more of this sort of thing. Strategy be damned, I want more future recaps.

McClain
09-18-2010, 09:48 PM
My gut on Wheels so far is still first-day jitters. Javex I'm willing to wait-and-see on since everyone thinks he's valuable, and he has been saying more than punchlines lately.

There are still several people who are waiting on the fringes. Rai, Nameless, and Torgo are doing a good job of not making an impression.

Did we decide to do this buddy list thing or not?

Destil
09-18-2010, 09:52 PM
Did we decide to do this buddy list thing or not?

Remember day two of M4? The community never 'decides' to do something. It's all individual effort, greater good be damned. I'll be keeping an eye on my buddies, but I won't be posting daily digests of them without prompt or anything.

widdershins
09-18-2010, 10:02 PM
Keep in mind that a number of folks have stated they won't be on today. Nameless and Wheels are among them (why I feel bad about pouncing on the latter despite my feelings).

Nameless is another one of mine, and I can report that he's not said anything I find particularly suspicious. He jumped on JohnB to back up the nodal accusation before it was retracted, but it never really got followed up on. 'Sides, John got more guff for his explanation of the matter than either of his accusations.

Adam
09-18-2010, 11:25 PM
Remember day two of M4? The community never 'decides' to do something. It's all individual effort, greater good be damned. I'll be keeping an eye on my buddies, but I won't be posting daily digests of them without prompt or anything.

Hey Destil, you think we could get a digest of your two buddies? Thanks.

I'm inclined to give Wheels a pass for now. It's tough going into your first Mafia game, and in M4U, I didn't even have to deal with The Legend of Brickroad (seriously JohnB, that is your new avatar). As long as we're not killing off new players just yet, the only other one this game is Widdershins. Let's see how Wheels shapes up on day 2, and if we think he's still a potential smokescreen, let's put his feet to the fire. If you don't think that killing him on day 2 is a good idea, then I have to ask if it's really a good idea to kill him on day 1.

Right now the votes are as follows:

dtsund: 1 (JohnB)

Wheels: 3 (Nich, Widdershins, Umby)

Brickroad: 2 (Destil, Alpha Werewolf)

Alpha Werewolf: 1 (Brickroad)

namelessentity: 1 (dtsund)


I'm not interested in voting for Wheels for the above reason. The only reason JohnB voted for dtsund is because dtsund originally voted for JohnB. And dtsund made that vote just to get things moving, so there's not much going on there either.

As for the Brickroad/Alpha show, I'm keeping back and watching who does what. I'm not convinced either of them is a Diamondback, but the circus going on around them could end up giving us something.

Ultimately, I'm concerned that dtsund's been jumping around on votes today. He followed Destil in voting for Brickroad, but his other two votes have been pretty much for the sake of having something to say. I haven't played with him before, so I don't know what kind of plays I should expect. I understand that you can get quiet players into the game with an accusation, but if he's a Diamondback, dtsund could be planting a road of red herrings. If I had to vote now, I'd probably go for dtsund, but given that we still have 48 hours, I'm willing to look elsewhere if needed.

Alpha Werewolf
09-19-2010, 01:52 AM
Okay, yeah. Mafia takes priority over bad players.

Wheels doesn't strike me as mafia, because he's new. NEW!Mafia don't play aggressively - NEW!Mafia more oftengo for the safe wagons and the like. Wheels feel much more like NEW!Town to me.

However, Mafia in general do like taking the easy targets. And Wheels? He's feeling like an awefully easy target right now. Finally, there's widdershin's response post to Eddie saying he suspects him: A long defense post to reply to a mere suspicion with neither vote nor case to go with it. That's classic NEW!Mafia thinking.

Unvote, Vote widdershins

Torgo
09-19-2010, 04:07 AM
Before we go a word further, I guess I need to point out that I live several hours off from all of you, I work full-time and go to school part time, amongst other commitments. The only really good time for me is later in the evening, which is late night/early morning for the rest of you, and heaven knows what time for Merus. So simply on account of everything else going on, no, I'm not going to be the most active person, nor will I ever be.

I am 100% for a buddy list or watchdog system. For one thing, it gives everyone, including (especially?) quieter folks like myself a degree of accountability. I'm more reactive then proactive by nature. So give me a couple names and I'll give you a breakdown, along with my take.

And with that, I'm going to sleep. It's past midnight and I haven't had a good night's sleep in days. I'm actually off tomorrow so I might actually be able to hop in midday and actually post something worthwhile then, but for now all you get is excuses.

widdershins
09-19-2010, 08:23 AM
Ultimately, I'm concerned that dtsund's been jumping around on votes today.

It's curious, yes, but at least this last one seems to have been designed to get a quiet person talking (even though said person did say they'd be gone yesterday), and with presumably unlimited accusations/retractions, that doesn't seem like a terrible strategy.

Finally, there's widdershin's response post to Eddie saying he suspects him: A long defense post to reply to a mere suspicion with neither vote nor case to go with it. That's classic NEW!Mafia thinking.

Unvote, Vote widdershins

You wound me, sir. Both Eddie and Javex posted that they figure me for an outlaw, and I thought it best to jump on it before it turned into an official accusation. Too late now, I suppose. Note that most of my long post was elaborating on why I chose to vote for Wheels. I dedicated all of two sentences to protesting my innocence.

Brickroad
09-19-2010, 08:43 AM
I dedicated all of two sentences to protesting my innocence.

Protesting? Or professing?

Careful, hombre. This is an Umby-class blunder right here. You're liable to hang if you keep up like that.

widdershins
09-19-2010, 08:51 AM
Protesting? Or professing?


HAHAHA! Well, if I go down for butchering the English language, I'll have no one to blame but myself!

JohnB
09-19-2010, 09:35 AM
I have been reading the last few pages with a vested interest, and I want to comment on a couple of the emerging overarching themes since my last post before football starts:

1) The List/Randomized list: I criticized the list in my last post because I felt that we wouldn't get full participation, and thus we'd have gaping holes in our knowledge base. I am satisfied that the randomized list will cover the holes in coverage that will inevitably arise, and I'll be making my assigned digests.

2) The Brickroad Thing: Man, I don't know. I don't think Brick comes off as anything other than genuinely Himself, and while that says nothing about his guilt or innocence I'm not feeling an Outlaw vibe from him today. He gets a Day 1 pass in my book (to this point, at least).

3) Dizzy/Byron/Umby/Nich/Alpha: Who the fuck knows? Let's evaluate where the votes went after the dust settles tomorrow (Day 2) morning.

HAHAHA! Well, if I go down for butchering the English language, I'll have no one to blame but myself!

4) Well, that sounds fine by me. Unvote. I accuse Widdershins. dtsund may or may not be guilty but I have little evidence in either direction for it and there are better targets. Speaking of which, Wheels may be fresh blood but at least he hasn't gaffed quite like this, and that may be enough to spare him tonight. For this moment, it's enough to spare him from me.

Nodal
09-19-2010, 09:40 AM
I'm not quite sure what you all see in Widdershins. Are you seriously going after him for making a typo? Wheels on the other hand seems like the most suspicious of the options in front of us. I accuse Wheels.

Merus
09-19-2010, 09:57 AM
Okay, I'm definitely not voting for Wheels now.

Nodal
09-19-2010, 09:59 AM
Okay, I'm definitely not voting for Wheels now.

You accuse a guy ONE TIME!...TWO TIMES!

McClain
09-19-2010, 10:02 AM
I don't see Wheels being dirty. But it's the first day and, unfortunately, someone's gotta swing. If the choice is between him and Widdershins, I'd take the latter at this point. But there's still lots of time and folks to look at.

but for now all you get is excuses.

You have my sympathies, friend, but you're not the only one here with long hours.