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Red Hedgehog
11-20-2011, 03:19 PM
Okay, went through all schep's posts and here's my take:

He's made a lot of posts with very little substance. On Day One, of course, this is pretty understandable. I wonder what he meant by "reverberation from the Guild incident" in this post (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1191001&postcount=56). Kept vote on Mogri claiming there was no one better sets off mild warnings. On day two makes a very weird "If I am the investigator" claim which doesn't work at all within the rules, then later claims ignorance / it is still useful (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1194424&postcount=230). Posts suspicion list in that post which I don't like because it doesn't jibe with my gut feelings (and he's suspicious of me, the cad!) but honestly there's nothing too weird about it except that some have little explanation. Accuses Brickroad for being useless (which he has been!) Later backs up accusation with solid reasoning. Finally makes a vote count for no apparent reason which sets up my "appearing to be useful without doing anything" hackles.
Overall suspicion:[/b] Mild

And Nich:
My impression was that Nich made a lot of empty posts. And he did! But he made a lot of posts in general so the ratio isn't too high. My analysis of his 21 counts 4 as meaningless, 6 as clarifying / discussing rules, 7 posts discussing who he is / is not suspicious of, and 4 other. Really it's his suspicion reasons that worry me. Accusing Raven (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1190787#post1190787) for reaching with his initial Brickroad accusation is fine, but staying on him despite "liking" his clarification (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1190997#post1190997)? And later blaming Umby (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1191667#post1191667) for him keeping his vote on Raven? And stirring up people not posting is fine, but Destil posted a decent amount on day one, I'm not sure why his quietness on day two (mostly taking place on the weekend) was so worrying (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1194557&postcount=241). And he seems almost weirdly (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1195067#post1195067)adamant (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1195067#post1195067)that there be no discussion of Brickroad at all, despite the people who actually accused Brickroad giving pretty decent reasons for doing so - actually going so far as to vote against people who accuse Brickroad. All these (in my mind) wrongheaded suspicions are tempered by my impression of Nich having a really awful reputation for finding mafia. He also has a reputation for being helpful and chatty which has kept up, but the "helpfulness" so far could be done as either town or mafia without hurting either side.
[i]Overall suspicion: Medium

On dtsund:
Am admittedly going by Raven's digest so if Raven is obscuring / leaving out posts then I'm missing things. dtsund mostly reads as unhelpful going by the few things he has said. No opinions on anyone but Raven? Admittedly, Raven has said some stupid things, but for me it would take a lot more than stupid to put suspicion on the Kayma-voting Raven. He also seems overly worried about talking about Brickroad. Probably a bit too early to read if he's just playing quiet / unhelpful or deliberately weaseling out of having opinions on many things.
Overal suspicion: Mild

On Brickroad:
Accused McClain because he thinks McClain is a bad player (to give Brickroad the benefit of the doubt). Tried to make a metagame "I am town" statement. Apparently dislikes how TT plays mafia (and yet is playing anyway). Accused Raven without giving any reasoning. Refuses to do that or talk about anything else. To give him the most doubt benefit, his day one behavior was fine. His day two behavior was to refuse to be more helpful and make an unexplained accusation.
Overall suspicion: Mild, but it's unlikely he'll ever be more revealing to change that level and his usefulness is nil.

Thus, to order my suspects:
Nich
Brickroad
schep
dtsund

Money where mouth is, I accuse Nich

Umby
11-20-2011, 03:27 PM
[QUOTE=Nich;1195424But no one was listening to any of this yesterday, so I figured why hash it all out again today?[/QUOTE]

Although I don't particularly follow your line of thought, I know where you're coming from. And the more you post your thoughts, the more we're likely to read them and understand them, especially with people like me who go day to day forgetting who stands where and all that.

I like substance!

schep
11-20-2011, 03:32 PM
I want to see our two top lynch candidates, dtsund and schep, defend their positions and say why they shouldn't be lynched.
I've already explained my position (if by that you mean my vote).

Since my last post, my suspicion of Brickroad decreased a tiny bit when he moved his vote, since he might be actually playing now in a minimalist way. But not enough for me to remove my vote.

Nich has flipped from + to - on my list, for several reasons. Voting for me isn't a big deal, but his explanation was weird. I may be biased knowing my own motivations and intent, but does anyone think I made "strenuous attempts" to start the B.S.?

The only reason I can give to not be lynched is that I'm a townie. Then again, I have no special powers, so it wouldn't be especially bad if I have to go.

Or if you're looking for answers to the reasons people have said they suspect me:

A google search for 'schep IIAS werewolf' (no quotes) provides some evidence that a conditional claim really is a play I often use, and in another context some other players have also decided it's a decent idea.

Yes, I dared to speak the name of Brickroad, because I thought him the most suspicious and/or least helpful. Deal with it.

McClain
11-20-2011, 03:37 PM
That's Raven nudging everyone towards killing dtsund, while voting schep.

... Then hell?

@schep:

...and also, how could we ever Know you're inspector If you're dead?

there is absolutely no way in heLL we coulD know That, unless...

> SUmmon solitaire

"if a townie power role died by lynching, do we discover said power role?"

.....

...regardless of the aNswer, that move feels way too weird to me.

i accuse schep.

i think that's going to be my last move toDay. see you guys tomorrow.

!

You totally didn't see that before. What the hell is Raven up to?

> Request Vote Count

You hope that someone will post an update for you, though you don't see anyone you like better than Botticus right now. But you want to be able to move late if something strange happens.

Raven
11-20-2011, 03:51 PM
On dtsund:
Am admittedly going by Raven's digest so if Raven is obscuring / leaving out posts then I'm missing things.

I didn't leave out anything. There is literally none of dtsund post that doesn't focus on his ridiculously narrow suspicion on me.



That's Raven nudging everyone towards killing dtsund, while voting schep. At the time the voting field was wide open. If he wanted dtsund dead (and he did; just prior to THAT he had said "dtsund is so dirty it isn't even funny") he should've been voting dtsund. I had no idea what to make of this behavior, except that I usually smell a rat when people give reasons for accusation other than "this is the person I most think is guilty." When people say "this would be a good information kill" or "we need to kill this person so he doesn't clog up debate," that's playing you all for suckers.

Did you even read this?



Schep's latest posts allayed most of my suspicion on him for now, and the longer Nodal went MIA, the more I think that he just forgot about the game. So, I'm back to my primary suspect at the start of the day: dtsund.

....[dtsund digest on Day 1]

Despite all that, I was willing to still be open-minded to the possibility that he was being a horribly misguided innocent. At the start of Day 2, I prodded and poked at other people while watching how he behaved in the first 24 hours:

In case it's not clear enough: there are 3 people left on the Mafia, not just 1. What I did today was to try to suss out other possibilities first while keeping my eyes on my primary suspect, THEN finalized my vote when I had made up my mind.



You totally didn't see that before. What the hell is Raven up to?



What I just said above: while I'm accusing schep, it's merely for the purpose of asking clarification on his weird post (of which he later replied rather satisfyingly) and that my primary suspect is still dtsund.

......okay, maybe I should have just said so instead of fooling around a bit. Sorry :P

This is the second time in as many days you've tried to get the Brickroad Show going where he himself is notably failing to, and I want you and schep both to answer for it.



Okay: talking about Brickroad doesn't EQUATE starting up the Brickroad Show. Accusing people for doing that is far more suspicious in my eyes.

Raven
11-20-2011, 04:03 PM
If it even matters, botticus is the only one who voted for dtsund between Raven's message and his actual accusation.

Wrong. Go back again and check.



The vigilante may have killed one of them. Unless you know otherwise! DunDunDUN

I typed that post in a hurry and forgot about the Vig's kill of the possibly guilty Kraken. OKAY, 2/3 Mafia then.

botticus
11-20-2011, 04:04 PM
You totally didn't see that before. What the hell is Raven up to?

Haha, what the fuck. I thought he was just deciding to type like a troll for some reason, that's awesome.

While McClain has been effective in making me waste time reiterating my same suspicion every time he questions it, it did ultimately let me resolve one problem I was having with schep's posts today. I was initially confused as to why he made his fake inspector claim saying Brickroad was clean, and then later voted for him, but a fourth look at the post allowed me to realize I'm dumb. "If I'm the inspector, Brickroad is innocent" == "If I'm not the inspector then Brickroad may or may not be innocent." Still a useless comment, but at least the incongruity is gone.

In the meantime, the guy I handwaved off my radar (Yimothy) has yet to vote after hand-wringing about his uncertainty regarding Mogri. But lest I end the day voting for another outlier, I'm not unhappy with my schep vote.

botticus
11-20-2011, 04:08 PM
If it even matters, botticus is the only one who voted for dtsund between Raven's message and his actual accusation.


I did?

Raven
11-20-2011, 04:09 PM
I typed that post in a hurry and forgot about the Vig's kill of the possibly guilty Kraken. OKAY, 2/3 Mafia then.

...and before anyone said "How did you know the Vig targeted Kraken, not Egar??", I would like to point out that we pretty much established that early and I'm personally 99% sure of that.

Mogri
11-20-2011, 04:28 PM
>Gasp

Wait, how did Raven know--oh.

McClain
11-20-2011, 04:32 PM
...and before anyone said "How did you know the Vig targeted Kraken, not Egar??", I would like to point out that we pretty much established that early and I'm personally 99% sure of that.

You muse that you can think of a group of people who are 100% sure.

Is there going to be a .... Raven-Cycle?

Nodal
11-20-2011, 04:39 PM
Well in the time since my last post botticus has yet to say anything resembling a hard opinion, except for one post where he keeps his vote on schep and yet backpedals a bit from finding him suspicious? So I vote to kill Botticus.

Umby
11-20-2011, 05:53 PM
> Hit head on desk multiple times in frustration.

You succeed!

Solitayre
11-20-2011, 05:55 PM
Vote Tallies

botticus: 3
The Giant Head
McClain
Nodal

Nodal: 0
Mogri
McClain
Red Hedgehog
Nich

dtsund: 4
Umby
Raven
Destil
Mogri

schep: 2
Raven
botticus
poetfox

McClain: 0
Brickroad

Brickroad: 1
schep

Raven: 3
poetfox
dtsund
Brickroad
Nich

Destil: 0
Nich

poetfox: 0
Nodal

Nich
Red Hedgehog

Day ends in 1 hour.

McClain
11-20-2011, 05:59 PM
While McClain has been effective in making me waste time reiterating my same suspicion every time he questions it...

> Facepalm

You point out that your point is that you don't want Botticus to repeat his suspicion because you think that his suspicion is bogus! And much like DTs hard-on for raven, you find it suspicious that Botticus is laser focused on one suspect and making zero comments on the rest of the game.

Brickroad
11-20-2011, 06:27 PM
I accuse dtsund.

McClain
11-20-2011, 06:30 PM
Hey Yimothy, maybe now would be a good time to vote today.

>Blink

Oh, wow, Yims hasn't voted? You find this really, really odd. You had been giving him a pass mostly for opening with some role PM shenanegans and then not doing anything so far to make you think it could be a bluff, but this is kind of ridiculous.

Yimothy
11-20-2011, 06:31 PM
>Vote

You still don't know who to vote for! You'd like to vote for either Mogri or Raven, but you think they're both probably innocent. You're not really getting the cases against anyone else.

Yimothy
11-20-2011, 06:35 PM
>Not happening.

You don't think that's going to happen!

McClain
11-20-2011, 06:36 PM
>Vote

You still don't know who to vote for! You'd like to vote for either Mogri or Raven, but you think they're both probably innocent. You're not really getting the cases against anyone else.

> Point at pot

You point at a pot and calmly tell Yimothy that it's time to shit or get off of it!

You then realize this saying doesn't really work here, since what you really want it for Yimothy to do is just hurry up and shit. Er, vote.

botticus
11-20-2011, 06:37 PM
>Blink

Oh, wow, Yims hasn't voted? You find this really, really odd. You had been giving him a pass mostly for opening with some role PM shenanegans and then not doing anything so far to make you think it could be a bluff, but this is kind of ridiculous.
Yeah, I actually just said Yims hadn't voted in the post you quoted, but your laser focus on me for the duration of this day must have made that difficult to see!

McClain
11-20-2011, 06:38 PM
>Not happening.

You don't think that's going to happen!

> Flip the fuck out!

You flip the fuck out and promise if Yims doesn't vote today then you will gun for his ass tomorrow.

Brickroad
11-20-2011, 06:38 PM
Congratulations, Yimothy! You are officially more useless than I am.

I fail even at being the most useless.

botticus
11-20-2011, 06:39 PM
>Not happening.

You don't think that's going to happen!
You're going to consciously abstain from voting?

Yimothy
11-20-2011, 06:40 PM
>Vote

Paralyzed by indecision, you vote to lynch nobody. You have no case you can honestly put forward as something you believe.

Raven
11-20-2011, 06:42 PM
*meaningless non-committal posts that will only muddle up the discussion tomorrow

> Hit head on desk multiple times in frustration.

You succeed!

dtsund
11-20-2011, 06:51 PM
Feh.

I vote for botticus, because I don't have much choice here.

I would vote for Yimothy right now, if I thought there was any chance of him being lynched.

McClain
11-20-2011, 06:53 PM
> Compose Letter

"Dear fellow sleuths,

In the possibly likely (maybe) event of my death tonight, please continue to take a closer look at Botticus. Review the case against Raven, though it still feels to me as if he's just weird. And now that Yims is being strange as hell, give him a closer look. It's not impossible that the MC were supplied PM information to prevent a trap and Yimothy decided to use it against the town instead. I'm not sure why an MC would draw this much attention to himself, but it's worth keeping him honest, and at least forcing him to vote early tomorrow would be a good idea.

In the event that dtsund turns up innocent, look at his accusers, naturally.

Sincerely,

-McClain"

Brickroad
11-20-2011, 06:54 PM
Actually, I'm almost certain Yimothy is town, now.

I'll explain tomorrow.

Raven
11-20-2011, 06:58 PM
Actually, I'm almost certain Yimothy is town, now.

I'll explain tomorrow.

Goddamn, tomorrow's gonna be awesome.

Solitayre
11-20-2011, 07:02 PM
Day has ended. Voting is now closed.

Solitayre
11-20-2011, 07:14 PM
Day 2 Final Vote Tallies

botticus: 4
The Giant Head
McClain
Nodal
dtsund

Nodal: 0
Mogri
McClain
Red Hedgehog
Nich

dtsund: 5
Umby
Raven
Destil
Mogri
Brickroad

schep: 2
Raven
botticus
poetfox

McClain: 0
Brickroad

Brickroad: 1
schep

Raven: 1
poetfox
dtsund
Brickroad
Nich

Destil: 0
Nich

poetfox: 0
Nodal

Nich: 1
Red Hedgehog

Abstain
Yimothy

>"Raven and dtsund: Showdown."

Solitayre
11-20-2011, 07:25 PM
>

You gather atop your office building, where Raven and dtsund stare each other down against the backdrop of the setting sun. A cold wind howls above. The sudden genre shift is mildly disconcerting.

>"Raven: Draw samurai sword!"

You wield your NOVELTY ENVELOPE OPENER. Huh. This...this isn't as cool as you were expecting.

dtsund points his gun at you. You suddenly remember you are in a hard boiled noir detective adventure instead of an epic samurai film. You guess this is what you get for bringing an ENVELOPE OPENER to a gun fight. You feel a little silly.

>"dtsund: Fire!"

Your KEY is out of BULLETS!

>"Raven: Behead dtsund in single stroke."

You somehow decapitate dtsund in a single blow with your NOVELTY ENVELOPE OPENER. You are pretty sure this is the coolest thing you have ever done.

dtsund has been slain!

He was a townie.

Night has begun. It will end on November 22nd, at 10PM EST.

Solitayre
11-22-2011, 07:09 PM
>”Begin Brickroad Show.”

As the sun rises on Day 3, you are all very excited to tune into your favorite television program, THE BRICKROAD SHOW starring that hilarious HYSTERICAL BROAD Brickroad. A new season is scheduled to begin today, and you’re all very excited to see how it plays out! That’s the great thing about THE BRICKROAD SHOW, every season is different! Who knows what’s going to happen next?

The curtain rises. You can hardly wait!

>"Curtain: Rise!"

Gasp! The curtain rises to reveal the broken and beaten body of Brickroad! “There must be some mistake!” you think! Who would murder Brickroad? This is a travesty of the highest caliber!

You are all pretty much flipping the fuck out.

Brickroad has been slain!

Day 3 has begun. It wil lend on November 25th, at 10Pm EST.

What will you do?

McClain
11-22-2011, 07:28 PM
> Boggle vacantly at these shenanigans.

Oh that Brickroad, you think to yourself. Is there nothing he won't do to be the center of attention?

> Keep promise

You go ahead and Vote for Yimothy like you promised to. However, you really don't think that he's mafia, so all you really want is for him to fucking vote already.

> Don Theorymancer's Robes!

You put on the garb of the noble theorymancer, a sometimes controversial splinter sect of -mancers. You use its mystic powers to idly speculate that the MC thought that Brickroad's bizarre play-style this game was because he was a power role. You hope they are wrong and he was just being a weird-ass.

Red Hedgehog
11-22-2011, 07:30 PM
Well, Brickroad's death certainly shakes up my suspicion list.

And just when it seemed he was starting to be helpful...

McClain
11-22-2011, 07:33 PM
Well, Brickroad's death certainly shakes up my suspicion list.

And just when it seemed he was starting to be helpful...

> Next

You'd really like to hear Red's suspect list, actually, since he made an outlier vote yesterday and sure stayed out of things at the end of the day.

Umby
11-22-2011, 07:35 PM
> Act confused.

You throw your favorite book you were reading last night on the ground in frustration. You really thought dtsund was a dirty bastard, but you can't win 'em all.

> Think about how yesterday's votes could be used to find a member of the Midnight Crew.

Well, you think that the obvious place to start would be to investigate who voted for dtsund, and the first person you see that would be a good place to start is Destil. You don't particularly like his quietness on day one and two.

McClain
11-22-2011, 07:47 PM
Holy cats can we please kill Raven yet?

> Next

You couldn't have believed mafia could be so all over the place before, but now you have been through The Guild Wars, and you've seen things, man. You've. Seen. Things. So, yeah, you could totally see how Raven could be MC. He wasn't really at the top of your list, but you would vote for him over several people on your sorta-trust list.

Umby
11-22-2011, 08:32 PM
> Sacrifice holy cats.

You smear their blood all over the sacrificial altar! Pagan God relations increase!

You don't really feel like any Midnight Crew members would call for Brickroad's head so early, but with Brickroad dead now it perhaps could be a signal that the mafia really wanted Brickroad out, or maybe it was a tactic to get us to gravitate towards Raven. That wine in front of you is so very tantalizing.

Red Hedgehog
11-22-2011, 08:46 PM
> Next

You'd really like to hear Red's suspect list, actually, since he made an outlier vote yesterday and sure stayed out of things at the end of the day.

With Brickroad killed by the MC, Nich moves from Medium suspicion to Mild suspicion on my list. I think, anyway, haven't fully had time to analyze things. And with turkey day holiday shenanigans coming up, I wonder if I will.

I stayed out of things, because a) I had nothing to say but +1ing (Vote goddammit, Yimothy!) and b) It looked like dtsund was going to die and since he was on my suspicion list I was fine with that. Honestly I would have been okay with Raven dying too as his innocence or guilt might have shown me if I was totally barking up the wrong tree with my suspects (since they all voted to kill him).

Red Hedgehog
11-22-2011, 08:48 PM
EDIT: I was reading the thread up until the day ended and would have switched my vote to dtsund if botticus had ended up tied.

Umby
11-22-2011, 09:16 PM
> Consider lynching Raven.

You decide that lynching Raven would sort of indicate whether his intentions were good rather than evil, and with those ominous posts talking about how tomorrow would be awesome and him coming out of Brickroad early, you're rather confused about how you feel about Raven. You postulate that you should let him live another day just to get a better feeling on him, but if the town wants Raven to be the spotlight today, then you would let them go ahead.

Mogri
11-22-2011, 09:22 PM
Because all the reasons I gave yesterday, and oh yeah, yesterday he demanded we lynch dtsund and vigkill Brickroad.

(Something tells me we're going to end up lynching poetfox or someone instead, though. Sigh.)
>Think about this

Is it even possible that Raven is that bad at Mafia?

McClain
11-22-2011, 09:41 PM
Fine, you guys do what you want. But I'm gonna accuse Raven and at this point it's going to take someone outright confessing their guilt for me to change my vote.

> Next

You want to wait for Yimothy to vote before moving off of him, but you are leaning toward a Raven vote when you do. Unless people want to lynch Botticus more. Those two are your main targets today.

Mogri
11-22-2011, 10:03 PM
> Next

You want to wait for Yimothy to vote before moving off of him, but you are leaning toward a Raven vote when you do. Unless people want to lynch Botticus more. Those two are your main targets today.
>Ask for explanation

Raven suggests a Brick vigkill. MC kills Brick. Therefore, Raven is MC? Wouldn't it make more sense to wait for the vig on this?

You're really not feeling the Raven vote, but maybe a better explanation would change that.

>Read Yimothy iso (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/search.php?searchid=2466143)

Yimothy hasn't contributed anything of value since day 1, and that's only if you're generous and count his PM antics and suspicion of you. His day 2 posts consist entirely of "I don't know what to do!"

You accuse Yimothy.

Raven
11-22-2011, 10:39 PM
Fine, you guys do what you want. But I'm gonna accuse Raven and at this point it's going to take someone outright confessing their guilt for me to change my vote.

Too bad about dtsund, but let me make it clear that I don't regret the fact that I stuck with my conviction and voted for the person I found most suspicious. And I don't understand how me requesting Brick's Vig kill make me even more suspicious in his eyes; perhaps he had another crackpot theory, like when he proposed that Umby stepped up to defend me on Day 1 because I am the MC's Roleblocker?

Yesterday, I already responded (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1195443&postcount=291) in regards of his accusation (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1195424&postcount=285), which is:

1) Purely conjectural and extremely weak
2) Conveniently neglected to include the crucial fact that I voted for a proven Mafia at Day 1.

My turn, okay? I was going to post my queries, but then I see Red Hedgehog had already made a very good query which Nich hadn't responded to yet, so I'm just going to re-post that one and add numbers:



And Nich:
My impression was that Nich made a lot of empty posts. And he did! But he made a lot of posts in general so the ratio isn't too high. My analysis of his 21 counts 4 as meaningless, 6 as clarifying / discussing rules, 7 posts discussing who he is / is not suspicious of, and 4 other. Really it's his suspicion reasons that worry me.

1) Accusing Raven (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1190787#post1190787) for reaching with his initial Brickroad accusation is fine, but staying on him despite "liking" his clarification (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1190997#post1190997)?

2) And later blaming Umby (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1191667#post1191667) for him keeping his vote on Raven?

3) And stirring up people not posting is fine, but Destil posted a decent amount on day one, I'm not sure why his quietness on day two (mostly taking place on the weekend) was so worrying (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1194557&postcount=241).

4) And he seems almost weirdly (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1195067#post1195067)adamant (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1195067#post1195067)that there be no discussion of Brickroad at all, despite the people who actually accused Brickroad giving pretty decent reasons for doing so - actually going so far as to vote against people who accuse Brickroad.

All these (in my mind) wrongheaded suspicions are tempered by my impression of Nich having a really awful reputation for finding mafia. He also has a reputation for being helpful and chatty which has kept up, but the "helpfulness" so far could be done as either town or mafia without hurting either side.


Respond to that, Nich. And, no, Brick's death does not nullify any of those points. For all we know, the MC could have purposefully kill him just to fuck with us.

After the whole dtsund fiasco yesterday, I'm more careful in accusing someone who laser-vote on me with horribly weak reasoning. But let me make it clear that if I still don't find his response satisfactory, I'll vote for Nich.

Nodal
11-22-2011, 11:55 PM
You go ahead and Vote for Yimothy like you promised to. However, you really don't think that he's mafia, so all you really want is for him to fucking vote already.
.

I'm going to vote for yimothy myself, but personally it's because I have a nasty suspicion that the best way to get people to believe brickroad about yims being innocent is to confirm brick innocent and keep his mouth shut

Red Hedgehog
11-23-2011, 12:03 AM
So I can't sleep and decide to check this thread.

As far as I can determine, Nich's argument hinges on Raven being a really awful mafia player. Because, of all the low posters he could have nudged and maybe gotten a bandwagon against them, he chose Kayma (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1191841&postcount=107). But fine, maybe he wanted to send a message to his teammate to talk more. Once it became clear that Kayma was actually a serious target, he had a great opening to change his vote to Mogri. He even posted that he viewed Mogri as suspicious but declined (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1192200&postcount=156). Since we now know that Kayma was MC, this does not play like someone on his team. Sure it's possible Raven wanted to lynch someone on his own team to look innocent, I've learned Ockham's Razor usually applies to online mafia (and was reminded of this again when the Nich/dtsund/Brickroad conspiracy I constructed in my head yesterday totally fell apart due to lynch results and night kill).

But day 2, Nich still doesn't like Raven. His entire argument against him day 2 is that his behavior is weird. Which it is! He encoded a message in his post fer pete's sake. But honestly Nich, I find your crusade against someone we know voted for a mafia member to be just as weird. If more time passes and we have more (some) evidence against Raven or are getting nowhere with other lines, then we start accusing him. Until then, I'd much rather go after someone who did not vote for Kayma on day one.

I'll echo others and say that this is not the TT mafia Nich I remember. Which probably raises my suspicion level of you to medium again.

Red Hedgehog
11-23-2011, 12:08 AM
I'm going to vote for yimothy myself, but personally it's because I have a nasty suspicion that the best way to get people to believe brickroad about yims being innocent is to confirm brick innocent and keep his mouth shut

Wait, keep whose mouth shut? I don't understand.

The way I see it, if the mafia killed Brickroad because of Yimothy, they either thought he could have been the inspector or Yimothy was one of them and they felt it better that Brickroad's theory didn't come out so we couldn't poke holes in it and would instead be inclined to believe Brickroad because we know he was innocent since the mafia killed him. I also think it's just as likely they chose to kill Brickroad for non-Yimothy reasons.

McClain
11-23-2011, 12:13 AM
> Connect the dots

You are almost certain that if Raven is MC, then Red is too.

Raven
11-23-2011, 03:54 AM
I, too, voted for a Mafia member on day 1

What the hell.

There is no way a Townie can be 100% sure that an alive person he accused of is guilty. Unless you're an Investigator who had gotten a guilty report on me.

Did you, Nich? Of course not, because it's impossible.

I'm not going to bother rehashing all of the reasons TGH already outlined; he quoted me in each instance and I already explained what I was thinking then.

What the hell.

First, it's Red Hedgehog's quote, not The Giant Head's. And second, he was pointing the discrepancies/contradictions in your actions, and you have not explain the reason behind those.

...And I noticed how you still deliberately avoided the fact that I voted for a friggin' Mafia on Day 1, and neither did you explain how me voting-for-dtsund and asking-for-Vig-kill-on-Brick could strengthen your case. I said that I voted for you if I don't find your response satisfactory, and I'm going to stick to that words.

I accuse Nich.

Now that it's taken care of, I'll direct my thought somewhere else:

~Yimothy: I really don't like that he had only shown up yesterday after being called out by botticus and Giant Head. However, surely it would be easier and more rational for him (as a Mafia) to make an outlier vote instead of flubbing around and abstaining? Either way, he obviously has some serious 'splainin to do and really needs to step up his game. After 2 days, 2 lynches, and 3 nightkills, he simply must have an opinion.

~poetfox: before today started, she's on my 3-man suspect list with Nich and Brick. While her low post count can be explained by RL reason (I think she mentioned in M15 or M14 that she had a really tight schedule), it is her timing & pattern of posts that worried me more: in both day 1 and day 2, she made initial accusation mid-game, shift it to someone who already had a vote, then vanished for the last 24 hours. That feels way too safe, convenient...and fishy.

Yimothy
11-23-2011, 04:47 AM
>Participate

You don't seem to be so good at that lately! You had kind of a busy weekend, which may have influenced how you behaved at the end of the day yesterday. But now you're just being lazy.

>Be Nich

Wh-What? Why do you want to vote for Mogri and Raven if you think they're innocent!?

>Be Yimothy

You want to vote for Mogri because of all the shegaganans that led you to vote for him back on day one. You're not going to vote for him because you think (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1194406&postcount=228) he's likely innocent. As for Raven, the problem you encountered was that whenever you tried to build a case against him you found yourself wondering if he was the vigilante. You didn't like his certainty about which night one kill was which, or his assumption that once he'd told the vig to kill Brick, it was gonna happen. You didn't like him saying (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1194473&postcount=234) that even if he was guilty Brick should be left alive. But when you looked at it, you just wondered if he was saying all this dumb stuff because he knew exactly what the vigilante would do.

>Vote

This time, you're gonna do it. You're gonna make it happen. You're gonna vote for Raven. You have a feeling he's killing people at night, and you think your idea about him being the vigilante is stupid.

Nodal
11-23-2011, 05:17 AM
Wait, keep whose mouth shut? I don't understand.

his being the only person whose mouth was shut Red :|. Brickroad's mouth.

Red Hedgehog
11-23-2011, 07:33 AM
his being the only person whose mouth was shut Red :|. Brickroad's mouth.

But what does that even mean? Brickroad is dead so his mouth has to remain shut. I'm not getting the point you are trying to make.

And since I have no clue how often I'll be able to post (and unfortunately doubt I'll have time for more big analysis), I'll throw down an accusation for Nich since I find his accusation of Raven hella flawed and he's acting hella weird.

Umby
11-23-2011, 08:12 AM
> Consider both sides of the argument.

You think that you'd vote Nich more easily than you'd vote for Raven. You vote for Nich. Nich has not been playing like he has in previous games, and you feel that as of right now Raven has played a great game and probably did not bus Kayma. Nich may or may not be mafia, but his death will tell us a lot about who could be mafia.

If Nich is not mafia, you feel like it may be prudent to have the next lynch be either Red Hedgehog or Raven.

McClain
11-23-2011, 08:55 AM
> Vote

Since you feel like his death will tell you quite a bit at this point, and you prefer the Raven-Red team to be mafia over Yimothy-Nich, you Vote for Raven to die.

> Make a declaration

You feel that since a chunk of the game will probably be out of pocket (yourself included) on Thanksgiving, you think it would be prudent if everyone gets a vote in by the end of the day today. That way we all can see where everyone is leaning and people can switch votes or make arguments before Thursday.

You will regard any holdouts quite coldly.

poetfox
11-23-2011, 09:32 AM
Yimothy was an asshole with the not-voting thing. That was stupid. But this Brickroad kill seems engineered to have us all make SOME SORT of decision about Yimothy, whether deciding he's good or bad, and either kill him or write him off as a suspect completely. I don't know which one the MC was trying to make us do, but I don't really want to play into that. He can just sit around for awhile and we'll see if he does anything else stupid, as far as I'm concerned.

As per yesterday, I am glad to jump on the Raven train. I accuse Raven for now. Since, you know, what McClain is saying about getting stuff on the board before the giving of thanks makes sense to me.

I am also still happy with my schep vote from yesterday, but that doesn't seem to be going on right now.

I am unsure about Nich at the moment? Something about his current actions is reminding me of Shin Mafia Tensei. Of course, there he was converted, so maybe that has absolutely no useful data to find. Still, I'm happy with his help at getting the guy I want to get at the moment, so I can't write him off completely. Let's murder Raven! Yay!

schep
11-23-2011, 10:02 AM
Talk about Yimothy, schep, and Nich; vote Raven.
Huh. Even if you previously voted for him, and your reasons haven't changed, you could at least reiterate a brief summary of why you're placing your vote. Some of us are still undecided here.

I'm inclined to agree with Brickroad on Yimothy. It would be easy for a bad guy to just jump on any one of the bandwagons. This reads more as genuine indecision from somebody trying hard (maybe a little too hard) to make a good choice. As long as it's not a pattern, of course.

I can't read Nich at all.

botticus seems like a townie to me now. (He was wrong about suspecting me, but that happens to townies.)

Raven's vote for Kayma still carries some weight, though it doesn't prove anything. Then there was a lot of confusing stuff from him, which makes him not look quite so good.

Destil may be IRL-busy, but has contributed near nothing except to agree with a bandwagon or two. I accuse Destil.

But it probably wouldn't take much to sway my vote.

botticus
11-23-2011, 10:52 AM
Raven suggests a Brick vigkill. MC kills Brick. Therefore, Raven is MC? Wouldn't it make more sense to wait for the vig on this?

Speaking of, I imagine we don't have any way of knowing if the vigilante acted? If it wasn't Brick, then I guess they either abstained (Yimmers, are you the vigilante?) or also targeted Brick, the result of which I assume is left to the GM to decide.

I'm inclined to believe that a member of the MC wouldn't do what Yimothy did last night, but at the same time, I'm having a hard time reconciling a townie going through those same motions.

> Next

You'd really like to hear Red's suspect list, actually, since he made an outlier vote yesterday and sure stayed out of things at the end of the day.

You know who else made an outlier vote yesterday? schep!

But I promise to give at least one other person a look today, so I'll give him a break for now.


First up, Umby! He's been giving me weird vibes for the last day, probably due to some of these "frustration" posts, and beyond that his activity isn't really sticking in my mind.

Upon review, he spent the bulk of Day 1 commenting on Raven, Brickroad, Brickroad and Raven (first poo-pooing Raven's lead-off vote for Brick, then later defending him from voters using that as a reason). And voted for Nodal for inactivity.

Day 2 seems less concerning. He claims to remain suspicious of Nodal, but decides to focus on and vote for dtsund. He does comment on other suspicious people (poetfox, Destil, Nich) throughout the day and provides a suspicion list.

Day 3, he starts out perplexed that dtsund was not dirty, then decides to focus on dtsund voters, though I'm sure he is excluding himself from that investigation - leaving him with Raven, Destil and Mogri. Seems to be more suspicious of Raven than previous days perhaps as a result of the above, by at least considering him as a lynch candidate, while also saying he has played a great game. Decides to vote for Nich.

All in all, the first few posts of this day are setting off more alarms than anything before. As such, he gets my early vote. I accuse Umby. And if he's dirty, then I think Raven is next, regardless of what Umby says about mafia strategy there.

Raven
11-23-2011, 12:02 PM
As for Raven, the problem you encountered was that whenever you tried to build a case against him you found yourself wondering if he was the vigilante.

I'm not the vigilante. Feel free to keep your vote on me if that's the only thing holding you back.



Since you feel like his death will tell you quite a bit at this point, and you prefer the Raven-Red team to be mafia over Yimothy-Nich, you Vote for Raven to die.



So, you prefer to trust a guy who did not vote yesterday and another guy who based his entire argument on flimsy reasoning over the two guys who voted for a Mafia on Day 1. Okay.

I'm going to vote for yimothy myself, but personally it's because I have a nasty suspicion that the best way to get people to believe brickroad about yims being innocent is to confirm brick innocent and keep his mouth shut

Um, let's see if I can follow your line of thought there:

1) Brick is innocent, and Yims is dirty
2) Brick (falsely) assumed that Yims is innocent and declared that he was going to explain why.
3) Mafia killed Brick, so as to lead us into the false assumption that they did so because they don't want Brick to confirm/convince us that Yims is innocent.

Is that about right?

~

I don't celebrate it but regardless, Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Mogri
11-23-2011, 12:32 PM
I could've sworn that the vigilante only had a kill every other night, but it doesn't show up in the rules. Maybe it was a discussion in the main thread before the game started. Either that or I'm going crazy.

Everyone has been operating under this assumption (see Raven's vigkill discussion yesterday). The latest nightkills seem to confirm that as well.

If we could get Word of GM on the matter, that would be great.

(too tired for flavor right now, sorry; pretend that's written in 2nd-person if you want)

Raven
11-23-2011, 12:37 PM
I could've sworn that the vigilante only had a kill every other night, but it doesn't show up in the rules. Maybe it was a discussion in the main thread before the game started. Either that or I'm going crazy.

It's on the rules pitch. (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1182236&postcount=5658)


1 Vigilante: Once per night, the vigilante may choose a player to kill. The vigilante may not kill on two consecutive nights.

It means he can kill again tonight. Now, I believe that decision, after today's lynch result, would be very crucial for the game's outcome (er, no pressure, Mr. Vig!)

Solitayre
11-23-2011, 05:40 PM
Current Vote Tallies


Yimothy: 3
McClain
Mogri
Nodal

Raven: 4
Nich
Yimothy
McClain
poetfox

Nich: 3
Raven
Red Hedgehog
Umby

Destil: 1
schep

Umby: 1
botticus

Umby
11-23-2011, 06:12 PM
I'm, uh, sorry I made you reveal. I'm terribly wrong about voting for you. Perhaps we can use the people who piled up on Raven to see who could be a good candidate for a lynching? And Botticus, you realize that when I'm mafia, I tend to be more quiet and reserved. As a townie I'm not afraid to throw my weight and my thoughts around as much. I guess that there's always the chance I'm Midnight Crew and also trying to switch my playstyle up, but I believe that I've made enough comments about playstyle but it's up to botticus to keep me in check.

I'll rescind my vote for Nich, and put it on poetfox. She seemed rather happy to jump on the Raven train yesterday and today, and she's been doing a lot of hiding in the shadows, something that I always think is mafia/Midnight Crew behavior.

And you people who are thinking I'm not posting in context, you be quiet. I am just trying to be clear and concise knowing that botticus sees me as suspicious.

schep
11-23-2011, 06:34 PM
> Nich: Remove mask.
You see a familiar face-- a friendly face...
If the angel is still alive, my suggestion would be to pick one of us four (including yourself) to protect at random.
I'll further suggest that since Nich's Investigation skill could still be valuable, maybe this random choice could somewhat weight protecting him as slightly higher than protecting Raven or botticus. It's up to the angel to decide whether to listen to me, and exactly what probabilities or random method to use.

> Next.
Apart from that, all I have to say is that I'm switching my vote to accuse Yimothy, who was quick to jump on the Raven lynch for what were honestly pretty bad reasons.

> schep: Reconsider.
That's better than the reasons I had.
I accuse Yimothy.

Red Hedgehog
11-23-2011, 06:50 PM
Man, this holiday is playing havoc with this game. I spent the train ride to my parents realizing that Nich being MC is about as likely as Raven being MC. Still, this is probably the appropriate day for the Investigator to reveal.

I retract my accusation of Nich.

I'm-a vote for Nodal because as awesome as Skyrim might be, he needs to play this game or get off the pot.

Yeah, I don't really feel strongly about anyone being MC at this point, but could probably be persuaded to vote for Yimothy.

Mogri
11-23-2011, 07:01 PM
I'm Problem Sleuth, and people should probably take their votes off Raven because I've known for a fact after night 1 that he's innocent. The idea was to go after him so singlemindedly that the Mafia would ignore me as unthreatening, while making such a shitty case that no one would actually get on board and lynch the guy..

>Wipe brow

What a relief. After his terrible reasoning for voting Raven, you really wanted to vote for Nich.

You feel a little better about your Yimothy vote now.

Raven
11-23-2011, 07:03 PM
Good Lord. I knew nobody sane could ever make that kind of argument.

It's a genuinely good tactic, Nich! And I'm pretty sure we're in a good position now, unless we somehow fuck ourselves really bad.

I'll gun for poetfox, for reasons already stated:



~poetfox: in both day 1 and day 2, she made initial accusation mid-game, shift it to someone who already had a vote, then vanished for the last 24 hours. That feels way too safe, convenient...and fishy.

Yeah, either her or Yimothy. Both are now equally suspicious to me, but Yim already had some votes, so I guess I'm sending my vote poet's way and make it a race between them.

...also, I noticed that Destil still haven't posted yet.

Nodal
11-23-2011, 07:19 PM
But what does that even mean? Brickroad is dead so his mouth has to remain shut. I'm not getting the point you are trying to make.

And since I have no clue how often I'll be able to post (and unfortunately doubt I'll have time for more big analysis), I'll throw down an accusation for Nich since I find his accusation of Raven hella flawed and he's acting hella weird.

Man, this holiday is playing havoc with this game. I spent the train ride to my parents realizing that Nich being MC is about as likely as Raven being MC. Still, this is probably the appropriate day for the Investigator to reveal.

I retract my accusation of Nich.

I'm-a vote for Nodal because as awesome as Skyrim might be, he needs to play this game or get off the pot.

Yeah, I don't really feel strongly about anyone being MC at this point, but could probably be persuaded to vote for Yimothy.

So you can't understand the fact that by killing Brickroad they got him to not talk about Yimothy's innocence (And considering this is Brickroad, his argument would have been much less convincing than no argument but a confirmed innocent's statement), you don't know when you'll be able to talk but you think I need to talk more (I've talked as much as you, and my posts today have been about my vote for Yimothy), you don't really think I'm MC and you might maybe vote for Yimothy in the future (Hey, I already did, look at that). Bullshit sir. When Yimothy goes down screaming, you're next.

botticus
11-23-2011, 07:44 PM
I spent the train ride to my parents realizing that Nich being MC is about as likely as Raven being MC.
While his reveal might make this moot, what drove you to this conclusion?

And Umby, I appreciate your response. To be quite honest, I know I've played in games with you as Mafia, but I can't remember how you acted, which is probably intentional on your part. However, since a lot of my suspicion of you included an implication that you and Raven were in cahoots due to all the Day 1 back and forth, I'm willing to back off at the moment.

If we're looking at low posters still, I think poetfox takes priority over Nodal. The latter seemed to just not really be participating much (said as he posts right before me), while the former appears to be keeping on top of the game but not interacting much. Both bothersome, one more worrisome. As an added benefit but not primary motivation, poetfox and schep have been opposing each other at times, so seeing how she were to go down along with finding out her affiliation could give me some clarity on schep.

I accuse poetfox, but I'm hoping a couple votes will push her into contributing a little more (at least after the holiday), at which point I can put my vote elsewhere. Yimothy is a fine alternate target if Nodal continues to post, given that by my reckoning Yimothy has spent a day and a half poking Mogri, then refused to vote, though he's capped off his activity with a more substantial post today.

Red Hedgehog
11-23-2011, 07:49 PM
So you can't understand the fact that by killing Brickroad they got him to not talk about Yimothy's innocence (And considering this is Brickroad, his argument would have been much less convincing than no argument but a confirmed innocent's statement), you don't know when you'll be able to talk but you think I need to talk more (I've talked as much as you, and my posts today have been about my vote for Yimothy), you don't really think I'm MC and you might maybe vote for Yimothy in the future (Hey, I already did, look at that). Bullshit sir. When Yimothy goes down screaming, you're next.

Must be something about the way you word your posts. It's very hard for me to parse them sometimes. Same applies here.

I think I now understand your Brickroad reasoning, but it would be nice if you'd actually confirmed that for me when I asked. It's a solid hypothesis and I certainly wouldn't blame anyone voting Yimothy for that reason. Heck, as I posted before it crossed my mind. I mean, it's not rock solid or anything but what in this game is?

I really don't understand why you got so defensive. Fact: You haven't been posting much. As of right now, only poetfox has fewer posts than you. Your posts have been pretty light in content. I mean, you're no Kayma or Brickroad, but I'd like to see more from you.

Look, at this point you, poetfox, and Yimothy are on my suspect list. Yimothy was (rightfully) getting a lot of flack and accusations and I wanted to make sure someone else who I think has been off gets some attention.

If you want to begin a campaign against me, I welcome it. I'm happy to share my thoughts.

Red Hedgehog
11-23-2011, 07:52 PM
While his reveal might make this moot, what drove you to this conclusion?

Basically the same thing that made me think Raven was innocent - Nich would have to be the world's worst mafia (that is on the mafia side) to be acting the way he was. And I know in the past Nich has been a fan of cockamamie schemes as town. I know Guild provides a nice counterpoint, but I presume all players are competent.

Yimothy
11-23-2011, 08:21 PM
>Get yourself lynched

You're working on it, geez!

>No wait, defend yourself!

You're kind of drawing a blank at this point. Seems to be your thing, lately. You can't seem to get any good ideas. Abstaining on that basis didn't make you any friends, but implementing your bad ideas isn't working too well, either.

>Withdraw

You retract your vote against Raven. If the guy who claims inspector says he's innocent, he probably is.

>Recall that there's no post-life technician in this game

You realise that in the absence of a coroner, there's no way of finding out if a dead player was a power role unless you killed them yourself. If the mafia got lucky and took out the inspector, it'd be almost completely safe to front the role. After all, nobody on TT would ever lynch the scanner, right? Well, you're not about to. But you hope the town will remember that Nich is in no way proven to be who he says he is. Unless he starts turning up guilty results, it might not be a bad idea to get rid of him once he's named enough innocents to form a bloc (but early enough that if he's innocent doing so won't cost us the game). Most likely though he'll just be roleblocked from here on out.

Umby
11-23-2011, 08:50 PM
> Point out the not so obvious.

You think that Destil has also been hiding in the shadows and deserves a good look over.

McClain
11-23-2011, 11:30 PM
> Smell bullshit.

You are fairly certain that you smell bullshit. It's a very distinct scent, mustier than dogshit, probably because bulls eat grass.

You don't like Inspector!Nich revealing without any positive scans

You don't like Inspector!Nich pushing for someone who he "knows" is innocent.

You don't like Inspector!Nich revealing to prevent an innocent lynch. Who cares? It's mafia. People die, you get info. Is it worth a reveal on Day 3?

You don't like Inspector?!Nich pulling this on a holiday when people feel pressured to make fast decisions.

You don't like the fact that you had sorta suspected that Brickroad was the inspector.

You really don't like Nich switching to Yimothy after his reveal, who you were almost certain was innocent.

You have a patented Batshit Insane Theory that Mafia!Nich would have also suspect Brickroad was an inspector, which is the only reason you can imagine Brickroad was nightkilled. In this case Raven probably is innocent, just in case he still got lynched, but Botticus would be a potential +1 on Nich's bullshit train.

You don't know that you have the balls to call for an auto-lynch on the inspector. You'd been on the road all day going to the mountains and back and none of this is sitting right with you. Maybe it's the diet coke and sunflower seeds. But you want to sleep on things first. For now you will do something you almost never do and Unvote Raven.

You want to know if anyone else has misgivings about this shocking turn of events, or if everyone is just taking it at face value.

Destil
11-23-2011, 11:35 PM
So here's the part I don't get.

If Yimmers is a bad guy, why would they kill Brick last night, when he's publicly on record of wanting to tell us why he's innocent tomorrow? Is a defense by Brick that damning?

Also, I'll restate my general opinion that I make every game that not voting is generally not mafia behavior, but then I'll get Heron from last game slapped in my face. So on the other hand, I can totally see him publicly making a big deal of hand-wringing his indecision to try and look innocent. Bit of a gambit, though, why take it when the MC is down to three rather than just hide someplace?

Further, Nich, I too would like specific explanation as to why you revealed now. I actually buy you going after an innocent scan, given the way you usually play (and it's a good way to keep inspector-hunting mafia off your back), but the timing is a bit odd since you don't seem to really have that much else solid to go after Yimmothy with.

Yimothy
11-23-2011, 11:42 PM
>Defend your actions

Well, there's not too much to say. You spent most of day one picking apart stuff Mogri said, which you did because he was getting stuff wrong and you thought he was suspicious (or you thought he was suspicious because he was getting stuff wrong, whatever). Day two you missed a lot of the day due to real world stuffs and were unable to convince yourself of the guilt of any of the leading vote candidates by the end of the day. Of course now that you have had some free time, you're still not finding much to go on day two. Day three you took a shot, but you still hadn't found much to go on.

Are these the actions of a mafia? Well, in this case you know they aren't, but that's because you've seen your role PM. You can't blame people who haven't for being suspicious. You guess it boils down to: either you're being honest and you're the worst townie ever, or you're lying and you're the worst second-worst mafia ever. Either way, this is not your game. But hey, someone's started up some role claim stuff! That's more your sort of thing. Maybe you've got something to say about that.

>Be Nich

I'm Problem Sleuth, and people should probably take their votes off Raven because I've known for a fact after night 1 that he's innocent. The idea was to go after him so singlemindedly that the Mafia would ignore me as unthreatening, while making such a shitty case that no one would actually get on board and lynch the guy.

>Be Yimothy

You are now Yimothy

>Just make things worse for yourself

OK, so you don't expect this to convince anyone to either take their vote off you or put it on Nich, but you're gonna vote for Nich. Hopefully after you get lynched people will take another look at this post. Well, OK, you know that's not gonna happen. Nobody ever listens to dead guys. But it'd be nice. So here's why you're voting for Nich:

His plan was to go after Raven so the mafia would ignore him, since he knew Raven was innocent. That's interesting, but it doesn't explain all the (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1190787&postcount=30) time (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1191638&postcount=74) on (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1191667&postcount=82) day (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1191870&postcount=116) one (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1192311&postcount=160) he spent going after Raven. Of course, you gotta vote for someone, and you guess it makes sense the inspector would inspect the guy he was most suspicious of. No case is perfect. Some aren't even particularly good. Anyway, Nich has pulled the odd interesting gambit in mafia games before, but this one seems kind of lame. He's gonna go after someone he knows is innocent, because he thinks it's more likely people who follow are guilty than innocent? Great idea, but you know what's a better way for an inspector to find the guilty? Staying alive and getting some inspections in. You don't see why a real inspector would implement this rubbish plan when he had easy access to a much better one.

>Get voted for by everybody

You think you've got that one covered. You hope people will at least bear this line of thought in mind. Anyway, even if you do convince the town, and Nich gets lynched and turns up innocent, that's no worse than killing any other innocent. Nich's already destroyed his inspecting career - you think even if he isn't nightkilled he's gonna be roleblocked pretty consistently from here. And you know, if he is the real inspector, perhaps some doubt from the town will deter the mafia from trying to take him out.

McClain
11-24-2011, 12:23 AM
Nich's already destroyed his inspecting career - you think even if he isn't nightkilled he's gonna be roleblocked pretty consistently from here.

> Next

You were going to make this point, too. Nich is essentially dead as an inspector. You know that there is a pretty strong backlash to auto-lynching the scanner, but that's because people do it wrong. You don't auto-lynch on possitive claims. With that you should always lynch the claimed mafia and then double-back on the claimed investigator if something fishy happens. You auto-lynch for innocent claims. Lynching Nich would either confirm two townies or prove he's full of shit. You really don't know either way of moving forward without going on faith, and right now you are running low on faith.

Raven
11-24-2011, 12:32 AM
Doubting Nich is a good idea.

Auto-lynching him today is a fucking dumb idea.

See here, Yimothy, there is a massive flaw in your argument:

Nich's already destroyed his inspecting career - you think even if he isn't nightkilled he's gonna be roleblocked pretty consistently from here. And you know, if he is the real inspector, perhaps some doubt from the town will deter the mafia from trying to take him out.

There is at least 25% chance that the enemy's Roleblocker is dead already, which could rises to 50% if we nailed today's lynch. It's too fast to consider Nich a neutered asset already. Hell, keeping him alive for tonight and see what happens is certainly much more preferable than keeping someone like you, whose in your own words:

either you're being honest and you're the worst townie ever, or you're lying and you're the worst second-worst mafia ever.

Sounds like a win-win to me.

Destil
11-24-2011, 12:56 AM
We don't need to lynch Nich today. Possibly in the future.

Alive, unknown, 10 players with up to 3 MC:
Destil, McClain, Mogri, Nodal, poetfox, Red Hedgehog, schep, The Giant Head, Umby, Yimothy

Alive, innocent if Nich is telling the truth (3):
Nich, Raven, botticus

Dead: Kayma(MC), Egarwaen(?), Krakenbrau(?), dtsund(innocent), Brickroad (innocent)

Worst case today we lynch one, tonight we lose two townies. 10 Players going into tomorrow.
Lynch one the day after, nightkill, 8 players.
Following day we loose on a missed lynch (6 players, 3 MC after lynch and night kill) unless the vigilante is still alive and hits.

So I'm all for giving him at least one day. It's possible HB was their roleblocker, though my guess is it's the infamous SS or incompetent DD.

Yimothy
11-24-2011, 12:59 AM
>Be Raven

See here, Yimothy, there is a massive flaw in your argument:

There is at least 25% chance that the enemy's Roleblocker is dead already, which could rises to 50% if we nailed today's lynch. It's too fast to consider Nich a neutered asset already.

>Be Solitayre

Identities of lynched players are public knowledge.

>Be Yimothy

You're pretty sure you'd know if the roleblocker was out of the picture. And since a lot of people seem set on your death, you're pretty confident the roleblocker isn't getting lynched today, either. It's a good point, though. Maybe Nich will get his power back sometime.

>Be Raven Again

Doubting Nich is a good idea.

Auto-lynching him today is a fucking dumb idea.

>Be Yimothy

You don't know what all this auto-lynch talk is about. There's nothing automatic about it! If there were, there'd be no need to discuss it. You're talking about lynching the guy who claims investigator. It's no more automatic than lynching anyone else.

Raven
11-24-2011, 01:22 AM
Identities of lynched players are public knowledge.

Note that he said "identities", which doesn't necessarily means "identities with description of role function". Thus, if Hearts Boxcars is the Roleblocker, I believe his identity will still be simply "Hearts Boxcars", not "Hearts Boxcars: The Roleblocker."

As for "auto-lynch"....I thought we're playing Mafia here, not Semantics: The Game?

Okay, whatevs, lynching him today is a horrible idea. Which you seems to be advocating for, considering you voted for him and all.

Yimothy
11-24-2011, 01:54 AM
>Reply

You love Semantics: The Game! Anyway, the point is that TT mafia has an absurd prejudice against killing claimed investigators which in this particular game means a fronting mafioso could potentially have a free ride to the endgame. Talking about auto-lynching the scanner recalls previous games where doing so was disastrous, but ignores that the reasons it was disastrous don't apply in this game. The lynch should be discussed on its own merits, and referring to it as an auto-lynch gets in the way of that. And yes, you are advocating lynching him today. You think coming forward today was a bad move for a real investigator, but a pretty smooth move for a fake one. It's the most suspicious thing you see going on.

Regarding identities versus roles, you think it is Raven who is playing Semantics: The Game now. In the post (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1193874&postcount=206) which was quoted, Solitayre was responding to a question (asked by Raven) about whether or not power roles are revealed on lynch. The term "identities" is unfortunately ambiguous when it comes to members of the MC, since they each have a name, but unambiguous regarding townies, since only the power roles have distinct identities. You hope that the mafia power role would be revealed upon lynch, but sure, it's not entirely clear. You're not above asking a question, though:

Hey boss, if we lynch the roleblocker are we told we've lynched the roleblocker?

botticus
11-24-2011, 06:56 AM
Lynching Nich would either confirm two townies or prove he's full of shit.
Acknowledging that this is from the biased perspective of one who is inclined to believe Nich is the real inspector, the result of lynching Nich today is:

a) one confirmed townie (with the other likely being nightkilled dependent upon the angel's shell game, if they're still around) or
b) one dead MC and ?. One, both, or neither of his targets could be MC if you think he's crazy enough.

Given that the ultimate goal is to wipe out the MC I can see the advantages of lynching him regardless of the ramifications if you think he's lying. But I always hate the idea of doing dirty work for the mafia before they even have to think about it, so waiting a day to see how Night plays out could be very helpful.

Mogri
11-24-2011, 08:28 AM
>Consider this

TGH has a good point, and you'd like a response from Nich.

schep
11-24-2011, 08:34 AM
If the mafia got lucky and took out the inspector, it'd be almost completely safe to front the role.
> Smell bullshit.
This is very disturbing. Now I don't want to trust Nich, nor do I want to risk lynching the inspector today.
I accuse poetfox, who has been staying out of most of the discussion and going along with bandwagons.

McClain
11-24-2011, 09:15 AM
> Fuck it

You are going to be out of pocket for the rest of the day, so you are just going to throw it down and Vote for Nich.

Nodal
11-24-2011, 11:21 AM
I don't see a reason not to wait a day, but then I wanted to lynch Yimothy before any of this scanner nonsense came up anyway. Also Red I think you need to get to know the difference between aggravated and defensive. It is annoying to say something clearly three times and not be understood.

McClain
11-24-2011, 05:37 PM
Oy, waste of a day. Can we get a post count please?

poetfox
11-24-2011, 06:08 PM
I have been keeping on top of the game, but I've also been working. I haven't been involved in discussions because they already happened before I got there. It happens. I'm not about to go start saying things that'll be twisted to kill me for no reason. (See: trying to help people out in previous games.) I will make more stupid jokes and make more posts of nothing but agreement if that'll really help? But I'll be honest. I am having trouble getting good reads off of people this game. Kayma was dumb luck: I wouldn't have guessed, really. Why do you want my bullshit out there when someone else might actually have some points?
...well, I mean, I know why. Because me talking lets you read me. I get it. I've almost posted many times during this game, but unlike most games, where I at least feel like I have a good enough read to dog someone, or try to shake something up, I've got nothing. Everything I wrote felt pretty useless! I'd rather have fewer posts that actually say something than a million stupid posts of "Mmhmm," "that's interesting!" and "I agree!"
In any case, I am definitely being quieter, so if that's all it takes, with some help from Nich's crazy plan, then have at it. Goodness knows I am good at dying.

This Nich plan bothers me because I feel like a target has been painted on me for doing nothing wrong because of it. The Giant Head also makes a good point. But it does feel very much like a Nich plan from what I know of him, and it does make sense to have more pieces in the shell game for the kill tonight on the part of the MC.

Of course, if the Vigilante kills Nich, well, uh... then we're going to be up shit creek, really. So let's hope that doesn't happen, no matter how guilty Mr. Or Ms. Vigilante may think he is.

Anyway, the end result is I unaccuse Raven and I accuse schep. I don't want to do Yimothy for previous "falling into their trap" reasons and I don't want to do Nich because he deserves at least a day. If I believe Nich enough to give him the benefit of the doubt, I have to stop murdering Raven too. That leaves one guy I still feel off about, and that's schep. I've mentioned him before, as those reasons for voting for him all still stick in my head. He's also been jumping about a lot today onto whatever bandwagons come along, and his contribution has been "Why don't you protect Nich, protector, because being predictable is cool." So I don't feel bad about going back to him.

Solitayre
11-24-2011, 07:13 PM
>"Bid sleuths well-wishes during festive revelry.

Solitayre wields his BAKING SCYTHE and offers you all delicious tea and baked goods. He gives thanks for each and every one of you being awesome and playing his game.

Also he counts some votes.

Yimothy: 3
McClain
Mogri
Nodal
Nich
schep

Raven: 0
Nich
Yimothy
McClain
poetfox

Nich: 2
Raven
Red Hedgehog
Umby
Yimothy
McClain

Destil: 0
schep

Umby: 1
botticus

poetfox: 5
Umby
Raven
botticus
The Giant Head
schep

Nodal: 1
Red Hedgehog

schep: 1
poetfox

Day ends in 24 hours.

McClain
11-24-2011, 10:09 PM
Oy, waste of a day. Can we get a post count please?

>Next

You shouldn't try to post while fighting a turkey coma. You of course meant vote count, and you also were thinking that the day was ending today.

So ... Yimothy or Poetfox? You aren't really thrilled with either of those options, frankly. Yimothy was in your "mostly trust" list and Poetfox hadn't made much of an impression on you either way.

You are hoping people will catch up after the giving of thanks and things will liven up. For now, sleep, and tomorrow you'll try to look harder of those two.

(Though really you'd still be happiest with lynching Nich, but that doesn't seem to have any traction right now.)

Raven
11-25-2011, 04:58 AM
Okay, thoughts:

At this rate, lynching either poetfox or Yimothy seems to be simply the best action we could do today. Both swallowed Nich's (intentional) bullshit argument against me way too easily. Both failed to provide any significant input after being accused. Both openly stated that they don't have much opinion or suspicion on other players. There are two conclusions that can be drawn: 1) they're displaying typical Mafia behavior of not spilling up potentially valuable information for the Townies, and 2) even if they're innocent, there is a strong sign that they won't be much help to us down the road.

I'll keep my vote on poet, since I find her slightly sneakier (that, and also Yim's Role PM thingy at the very beginning). However, I'm also okay with Yimothy biting the dust, and would certainly welcome it if the Vigilante decides to gun down whoever between the two that survives the lynch. if both poet and Yim are gone by tomorrow, I guess I don't have any other strong suspects left and would reserve judgment until I see if Nich survived the night and managed to come up with another investigation result.

Also, might as well get this out while I still can: I don't trust McClain. Like, I used to, but not anymore. I agree with Red's sentiment before that we should only seriously consider lynching a Kayma-voter if we had exhausted all other options, and McC did have a fantastic Day 1 performance; however, in Day 2 and 3, EVERYTHING he said/did feel way off the mark to me. But eh, we'll see first what happens.

Yimothy
11-25-2011, 06:45 AM
> Be Nich

The Raven attack dog idea was my way of staying alive and getting some inspections in. The point was not to use the Raven bandwagon as a way to trawl for potential Mafia, but to do such a bad job of it that he would be in no real danger of dying. The fact that he started picking up votes anyway today, so much so that he emerged as the vote leader, seemed suspicious enough for me that I felt it important to abandon that plan and try something else.

>Be Yimothy

You can see that Nich is claiming his original plan was to stay off the MC's radar by gunning for an innocent, but that doesn't change the fact that the plan he implemented was role claiming day three for minimal potential benefit. You're pretty sure that being a vote leader early in the day correlates poorly with actually getting lynched, so you don't think Raven was really in all that much danger. Why not just switch your vote off for whatever reason (maybe to your other known innocent?), and reduce the chance of him getting lynched that way?


>Be Raven

At this rate, lynching either poetfox or Yimothy seems to be simply the best action we could do today. Both swallowed Nich's (intentional) bullshit argument against me way too easily.

>Be Yimothy

You're not even sure what Nich's case against Raven was, beyond the slippery and weird thing, which yes, you agree with. You think Raven is posting a lot, and a lot of what he's posting is rubbish. And you didn't have anything better against anyone else.

Red Hedgehog
11-25-2011, 10:39 AM
Alright, poking Nodal didn't get me much.

Honestly, at this point no one is coming out as strongly mafia to me. I read through Nodal's posts before I accused him and other than him trying to say as little as possible what he did say made sense. I'll read through poetfox and Yimothy and see who comes across as most suspicious.

I unaccuse Nodal

Re: McClain
While I applaud his trying to keep conversation going and get people into the spotlight, his voting pattern and preferences do have me confused since they've been poor and he's my most trusted player. The most reasonable argument for him being mafia would be if both Mogri and Kayma were mafia. But I'm just more inclined to think that he's just being weird.

McClain
11-25-2011, 10:48 AM
Re: McClain
While I applaud his trying to keep conversation going and get people into the spotlight, his voting pattern and preferences do have me confused since they've been poor and he's my most trusted player. The most reasonable argument for him being mafia would be if both Mogri and Kayma were mafia. But I'm just more inclined to think that he's just being weird.

> Respond

"How the hell has my vote pattern been "poor?" My final votes so far have been a pretty important Day 1 vote to kill an MC dead and a Day 2 vote for someone who has only been "vetted" by a suspect inspector claim."

Mogri
11-25-2011, 10:52 AM
>Inspect McClain

McClain jumped from voting for you to voting for Kayma on day 1. This swung the vote from you to scum. Red Hedgehog then voted for Kayma, sealing his fate.

Red Hedgehog nailed it when he said that the only way McClain is scum is if you are scum. The same goes for Red Hedgehog for the same reason. If Red had voted for you on day 1, it would have tied the vote.

Red Hedgehog
11-25-2011, 11:09 AM
Yimothy: Attempted to prove himself through alluded to role PM. Accused / Disliked people acting weird. Declines to participate (vote) on day 2. Makes a case against Nich (which is fine given the bandwagon building against him)

poetfox: Has started every day by accusing Raven and then changing her vote. I have no idea what this means except that she just doesn't like the way Raven plays the game. Also doesn't trust schep... which I don't either. Hasn't posted much, but hasn't succeeded in hiding either.

Yeah, I still don't really like either of these choices. And I like lynching Nich even less. If you made me choose between one of the two above, I'd go for poetfox, but I really like poetfox's target of schep most.

Anyone want to join me on a schep lynch?

Mogri
11-25-2011, 11:16 AM
>Compromise

You agree to vote schep tomorrow if poetfox comes up clean today.

Red Hedgehog
11-25-2011, 12:58 PM
Okay, I'll throw in an accusation for schep and check back in 2.5 hours before I leave to see if it's worth throwing it poetfox's way instead.

poetfox
11-25-2011, 01:15 PM
So I'm about to go to work and probably work until like 1 in the morning! So I guess this is my last bit of correspondence for today, maybe EVER (well, okay, in the context of this game, anyway).

No dramatic reveals or anything. I mean, I'm clean. I promised myself I wouldn't go all rage-y this game, and I didn't. But hey! Maybe that would have helped! Fuck if I know.

I'm not sure what information killing me is going to give you all, which worries me. I also continue to hope that the vigilante is smart tonight, but that's not my call. If I had anything to say to defend myself, I totally would. But it really feels like I'm going down because I'm quiet and not screaming at people, and, well, uh, yes. I have been quiet and not screaming at people. It's not like I can suddenly undo that.

I apologize if I haven't been as much of a help to the town as past games. I'll do better next time. Maybe use a few more naughty words.

Do what you need to do, and good luck to you all.

McClain
11-25-2011, 01:30 PM
So I'm about to go to work and probably work until like 1 in the morning! So I guess this is my last bit of correspondence for today, maybe EVER (well, okay, in the context of this game, anyway).

No dramatic reveals or anything. I mean, I'm clean. I promised myself I wouldn't go all rage-y this game, and I didn't. But hey! Maybe that would have helped! Fuck if I know.

I'm not sure what information killing me is going to give you all, which worries me. I also continue to hope that the vigilante is smart tonight, but that's not my call. If I had anything to say to defend myself, I totally would. But it really feels like I'm going down because I'm quiet and not screaming at people, and, well, uh, yes. I have been quiet and not screaming at people. It's not like I can suddenly undo that.

I apologize if I haven't been as much of a help to the town as past games. I'll do better next time. Maybe use a few more naughty words.

Do what you need to do, and good luck to you all.

> Request suspect list

Before Poet goes away, maybe forever, you'd like her to give everyone a fresh list of suspects. Saying "Oh well, I'm innocent by whatevs!" doesn't do you much good.

botticus
11-25-2011, 01:53 PM
Anyone want to join me on a schep lynch?
I'm not against switching to schep, since I've said I have a strong feeling one or the other of them is dirty, but have you explained your suspicions anywhere? Last I saw you were looking at Nodal, Yimothy and poetfox.

Red Hedgehog
11-25-2011, 02:54 PM
I'm not against switching to schep, since I've said I have a strong feeling one or the other of them is dirty, but have you explained your suspicions anywhere? Last I saw you were looking at Nodal, Yimothy and poetfox.

I looked at the three of them and... decided I didn't really have more than a 50/50 feeling as to any of their guilt or innocence (okay, maybe 52/48 for poetfox). As for schep, my reasons from yesterday (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1195423&postcount=284) still hold and today he has attempted to tell the Angel how to do his/her job and very quickly went from "hallelujah Nich is the inspector" to "I don't know if we can trust this guy!". Look, my schep suspicion is only maybe 5% but its still more than any other player.

"How the hell has my vote pattern been "poor?" My final votes so far have been a pretty important Day 1 vote to kill an MC dead and a Day 2 vote for someone who has only been "vetted" by a suspect inspector claim."

Oh yeah, this. I (obviously) thought Raven was likely innocent even before Nich's reveal. And I think that going after him after day one was a poor decision. And I think lynching Nich today is a poor decision, even if he turns out to be mafia. As long as we don't blindly follow Nich's hunches, I think we're safe from the more unlikely scenario of Nich fronting as investigator.

McClain
11-25-2011, 03:08 PM
And I think lynching Nich today is a poor decision, even if he turns out to be mafia. As long as we don't blindly follow Nich's hunches, I think we're safe from the more unlikely scenario of Nich fronting as investigator.

> Huh?

Huh? You don't understand this statement. The town wouldn't be blindly following "hunches." They'd be following Nich's claimed scans, and you either trust Nich or you don't. You wonder if Red would be willing to lynch Botticus, for example, after Nich claimed to scan him clean.

Red Hedgehog
11-25-2011, 03:12 PM
Actually, I meant more not following Nich with whomever he wanted to lynch. I'm also totally willing to lynch botticus. In fact, if you'd have accused him, that's where I'd be too.

botticus
11-25-2011, 03:17 PM
> Huh?

Huh? You don't understand this statement. The town wouldn't be blindly following "hunches." They'd be following Nich's claimed scans, and you either trust Nich or you don't. You wonder if Red would be willing to lynch Botticus, for example, after Nich claimed to scan him clean.
Well, today's Yimothy vote is a hunch on Nich's part, since he hasn't offered up inspection results for him. I'm not sure where Red's going beyond that.

With 4 hours left on a busy Friday, I think I'll stick with Mogri's bargain of voting schep tomorrow if poetfox turns up innocent. Switching now could put Yimothy in more immediate danger of a lynch and I'm feeling much better about taking down one of the former two today.

McClain
11-25-2011, 03:20 PM
Actually, I meant more not following Nich with whomever he wanted to lynch. I'm also totally willing to lynch botticus. In fact, if you'd have accused him, that's where I'd be too.

> But ...

But you DID accuse him yesterday, and so far Botticus wasn't even on Red's suspect radar!

The reason you don't want to lynch him today after Nich's role claim is that if you lynch Bot and he's clean, then people will assume that Nich's clean because he said Bot was clean, but that's a false confirmation because mafia would know if Bot was clean or not! Which is why you want to start with Nich. If he's clean, it confirms Raven and Botticus. And then hopefully the Angel shell game will protect both of them (would the mafia take a 50/50 shot tonight?) and the town is in good shape tomorrow. OR Nich is dirty, which means you can safely ignore his scan claims and then lynch Botticus if you still feel like it.

> Calm down

Still, you are feeling a little better about lynching Poet today after her weak "final" post before.

Red Hedgehog
11-25-2011, 03:25 PM
> But ...

But you DID accuse him yesterday, and so far Botticus wasn't even on Red's suspect radar!

Yeah, I was an idiot yesterday. I assumed following (known flawed) mafia-finding skills was better than following someone I trusted.

Anyway, it looks like schep is a non-starter for today so, not that it matters, I unaccuse him and switch to poetfox.

Destil
11-25-2011, 03:47 PM
Of the two people who look like they could be lynched today, I don't see any solid evidence for either being mafia.

Yimmithoy, at least, has his non-vote yesterday. If he's mafia it's a clever gambit, but he wasn't getting a lot of attention before this so I don't see the need for him to do it. Reads more like a townie.

I accuse Poetfox.

McClain
11-25-2011, 03:59 PM
Yimmithoy[/B]

> Next

You don't know who this Yimmithoy fellow is, but you are going to have to take a closer look at him.

McClain
11-25-2011, 04:20 PM
I've got nothing else to say about poetfox. She doesn't seem to care either way, which makes me wonder why she was even playing of she's clean.

> Next

Poetfox played full of piss and vinegar the last couple of times she was town. Though you've been burned by this recently, you sorta hope this is the old mafia info-freeze with her not really saying anything on the way to the noose.

poetfox
11-25-2011, 04:42 PM
Post from work on phone.

If I was Mafia, I'd tell you. It's more fun that way. Big death speeches are entertaining to write.

Giant Head, fuck you for thinking I don't take this game seriously. If not being an asshole about being accused means I don't care, but being angry is "not being me," then I don't know what the fuck you people want from me.

I suspect schep. I still feel uneasy about Raven. I am worried about Nich and Yimmers, but you all will figure that out soon enough. I've said all these things before.
Also, once again, Giant Head can take his ideas that I'm not serious and consume them, just chew them up, then swallow, and digest it. Then, due to spite bacteria I am inserting into it, he will become very ill. Coughing. Weezing. Barely able to walk. He will search for a cure, but there will be none. The intense stench of his illness will keep all that love him at a distance, and he will die alone, crying, asking why, WHY?!

Raven
11-25-2011, 04:55 PM
Also, once again, Giant Head can take his ideas that I'm not serious and consume them, just chew them up, then swallow, and digest it. Then, due to spite bacteria I am inserting into it, he will become very ill. Coughing. Weezing. Barely able to walk. He will search for a cure, but there will be none. The intense stench of his illness will keep all that love him at a distance, and he will die alone, crying, asking why, WHY?!

Hahaha, now that's more like it!

Anyway, regardless of your faction, thanks a bunch for having pointed out my tendency to be overly verbose. That's a mighty useful feedback to me not just in Mafia games, but also in real life =)

Solitayre
11-25-2011, 05:52 PM
Current Vote Tallies

Yimothy: 3
McClain
Mogri
Nodal
Nich
schep

Raven: 0
Nich
Yimothy
McClain
poetfox

Nich: 2
Raven
Red Hedgehog
Umby
Yimothy
McClain

Destil: 0
schep

Umby: 1
botticus

poetfox: 7
Umby
Raven
botticus
The Giant Head
schep
Red Hedgehog
Destil

Nodal: 0
Red Hedgehog

schep: 1
poetfox
Red Hedgehog

Day ends in 1 hour.

Solitayre
11-25-2011, 07:03 PM
Day has ended. Voting is now closed.

Solitayre
11-25-2011, 07:08 PM
Day 3 Final Vote Tallies

Yimothy: 3
McClain
Mogri
Nodal
Nich
schep

Raven: 0
Nich
Yimothy
McClain
poetfox

Nich: 2
Raven
Red Hedgehog
Umby
Yimothy
McClain

Destil: 0
schep

Umby: 1
botticus

poetfox: 7
Umby
Raven
botticus
The Giant Head
schep
Red Hedgehog
Destil

Nodal: 0
Red Hedgehog

schep: 1
poetfox
Red Hedgehog

>"poetfox: Be nervous."

Solitayre
11-25-2011, 07:10 PM
You didn’t see this coming when you called up those sleuths to help you with your problems. You admit they did a pretty good job the first day catching that Kayma goon, but now it seems your plan has backfired.

You are now starring down a gang of strapping fellas who seem to have it in their heads that you’re a villain! It’s almost enough to give you a CASE OF THE VAPORS.

>”poetfox: Fire M-16 at strapping fellas!”

You turn on your HAIR DRYER and blast the fellas with warm air. You probably should have seen this coming and realize you only have yourself to blame. on the bright side, their hair has never looked better.

Once the deed is done, the sleuths rifle through poetfox’s collection of MY LITTLE PONIES, but unfortunately, find nothing incriminating.

poetfox has been slain!

She was a townie.

Night has begun. It will end on November 27th, at 10 PM EST.

Solitayre
11-27-2011, 07:10 PM
>”Sleuths: Be awakened by loud racket!”

In the midst of the night, you are roused from your hard boiled dreams by a hail of gunfire coming from outside. You glance out your window, wondering at the cause of this commotion. What does a hard fella have to do to get some shut eye ‘round here?

In the darkness of the streets, you catch a glimpse of Red Hedgehog darting through the avenues below, hunted by some shadowy force. He darts into an alleyway, and all you hear is a final burst of gunfire, the streets below illuminated by the muzzle flash, and then…. Silence and darkness.

>”Nich: Take a closer look!”

What villainy stalks these streets? You decide to take a peek out your window to take a closer look. What’s the worst that could happen?!

>”???: Unplug Nich’s window!”

A mysterious hand darts from the shadows of Nich’s office, pulling the plug from Nich’s PORTABLE GENERATOR, de-powering his LIGHT BOX WINDOW.

And thus was Nich’s career cut tragically short.

Red Hedgehog and Nich have been slain!

Day 4 has begun. It will end on November 30th, at 10 PM EST.

Yimothy
11-27-2011, 07:25 PM
Well, there goes my suspicion list. I guess the angel didn't believe Nich either? Or maybe they're dead.

Destil
11-27-2011, 07:26 PM
Or the vigilante didn't believe him.

Or the angel followed his instructions and tried to shell game it.

botticus
11-27-2011, 07:27 PM
I think it would be reasonable to request that the vigilante come forward if they killed Nich and he was dirty. Otherwise I'm going to assume he killed an innocent Nich or Nich was the mafia hit.

McClain
11-27-2011, 07:37 PM
> Examine the carnage

Well, that's interesting. You're not really sure what to make of your suspicions now.

> Next

I think it would be reasonable to request that the vigilante come forward if they killed Nich and he was dirty.

Wait, this sounds familiar...

I don't suppose it would make sense for the vigilante to come forward after one night

Speaking of, I imagine we don't have any way of knowing if the vigilante acted?

Botticus seems awful goddamn preoccupied about the vigilante for a supposed townie.

Yimothy
11-27-2011, 07:40 PM
Aww man, I just realised I broke character. Oh well, it's easier this way, anyhow. Destil, whether or not he was killed by the vigilante is irrelevant to whether or not he was protected by the angel. botticus, allow me to present a crazy theory:

The mafia were Kayma, Nich, Raven and you. Nich fronted inspector after killing the real deal, presented the other two of you as innocents, and then you killed Nich to fake confirm him. You and Raven now sail to the end as confirmed innocents, town loses.

To be honest, if that turns out to be true I'd say you guys deserve to win, well done. I'm gonna assume the more reasonable option and say that it isn't.

Destil
11-27-2011, 07:40 PM
Botticus seems awful goddamn preoccupied about the vigilante for a supposed townie.

Botticus is one of Nich's clean scans, though. If he's mafia he knows if Nich is mafia, and that's the only case where Nich would have claimed he's innocent.

So calling the vigilante forward in this case would simply be to disprove/cast doubt on his own townieness? That dosen't make sense.

botticus
11-27-2011, 07:41 PM
Botticus seems awful goddamn preoccupied about the vigilante for a supposed townie.

Yes, information is good to have! Are you advocating that the vigilante not tell us if he nailed a fake inspector, or do you just not like me asking?

Umby
11-27-2011, 07:50 PM
Well, so far I've been the first to drive lynches for two townies. Let's just say I'm very unsuccessful...

Now for the third! Destil, I choose you! You're another guy who was playing it safe for the first few days, and you decide to come out of the woodworks now. I feel like you're part of the Midnight Crew.

McClain
11-27-2011, 07:52 PM
Yes, information is good to have! Are you advocating that the vigilante not tell us if he nailed a fake inspector, or do you just not like me asking?

You have a problem with boticus asking for the vig to serve themself up since Day 2. And you think it's pretty obvious that if Nich was a guilty vig kill that they would tell the town.

botticus, allow me to present a crazy theory:

The mafia were Kayma, Nich, Raven and you. Nich fronted inspector after killing the real deal, presented the other two of you as innocents, and then you killed Nich to fake confirm him. You and Raven now sail to the end as confirmed innocents, town loses.

This crazy theory had, in fact, occurred to you, but it's probably too early to pursue seriously (if at all).

Looking at the math, if this WAS the case, then there would be two MC left, which means the town could survive up to 5 players: 3-2. BUT if it's not the case, then there's still 3 mafia, and the town only has until 7: 4-3. So best to look completely elsewhere for today.

(It also bothers you that Nich rode pretty hard for Raven all game before his reveal.)

Umby
11-27-2011, 07:57 PM
Also, I'd like to make note that we should take a look at Red Hedgehog and see if there was any reason for the Midnight Crew or the vigilante to kill him, as that might give us more information on who to press. Also, just because I don't want to leave Destil out on a stick here because he's being very helpful today, I also suspect McClain for trying to use Nich's unconfirmed death as a way to skew the data we have. We're more likely to lynch botticus and Raven in the future if we don't get out of the way that we're pretty sure that Nich was the Pickle Inspector, and as such McClain trying to sow disbelief that Nich was really the Inspector just screams to me Midnight Crew. But again, I've been wrong twice before this game, so...

Yimothy
11-27-2011, 08:07 PM
Botticus is one of Nich's clean scans, though. If he's mafia he knows if Nich is mafia, and that's the only case where Nich would have claimed he's innocent.

So calling the vigilante forward in this case would simply be to disprove/cast doubt on his own townieness? That dosen't make sense.

I can't really follow what you're saying here. You think if Nich were mafia, he definitely would have put up fellow mafias as innocents? If botticus is mafia, he knows whether or not the vigilante killed Nich. Calling for the vigilante to come forward makes it look like he doesn't know, and supports his claim to innocence.

Umby, I'm pretty sure Nich claimed Problem Sleuth, not Pickle Inspector. I thought it was kind of wierd since I thought we were all supposed to be Problem Sleuths, but since my doubts about Nich hinged on his having killed the real inspector I assume he'd know what the inspector's identity was whether he was it or not.

McClain
11-27-2011, 08:46 PM
We're more likely to lynch botticus and Raven in the future if we don't get out of the way that we're pretty sure that Nich was the Pickle Inspector ...

You are not sure what to make of this slip. Nich clearly said that he was Problem Sleuth. Maybe Umby just made a connection between the role Inspector and the character Pickle Inspector and brain farted it out. Umby obviously is familiar with the source material. Still, you are fairly certain that's the first time the words Pickle Inspector have been used in this game. You wonder if Umby knows something you don't.

As for doubting Nich, well yeah, you had some serious issues with his reveal. And while his death makes you rethink it seriously, you aren't willing to rule out the possibility that it's all part of some grander scheme. But, again, today you are going to look outside of the Raven-Botticus-Nich sphere.



Umby, I'm pretty sure Nich claimed Problem Sleuth, not Pickle Inspector. I thought it was kind of wierd since I thought we were all supposed to be Problem Sleuths, but since my doubts about Nich hinged on his having killed the real inspector I assume he'd know what the inspector's identity was whether he was it or not.

Problem Sleuth is the title character from the comic. We (most of us) are just "sleuths." It's not unreasonable that he would be the Inspector role since he was the most sleuthy of the characters.

You suddenly feel like you are having a Day 1 type conversation ...

Umby
11-27-2011, 08:47 PM
I was just being funny, not making a statement about the role name.

Mogri
11-27-2011, 08:56 PM
>Do your thing

Like you said you would, you accuse schep.

>Do some math

How many players are alive?

botticus
Destil
McClain
Mogri
Nodal
Raven
schep
The Giant Head
Umby
Yimothy
Brickroad (nightkilled N2, confirmed town)
dtsund (lynched N2, confirmed town)
Egarwaen (nightkilled N1, probably town)
Kayma (lynched D1, confirmed MC)
Krakenbrau (nightkilled N1, unconfirmed)
Nich (nightkilled N3, claimed Inspector)
poetfox (lynched N3, confirmed town)
Red Hedgehog (nightkilled N3, unconfirmed)

With 10 players left, there are between one and three MC.

>Propose a plan

You propose that the vigilante claim tomorrow. Today is still free lynch and the vig is on cooldown. Tomorrow is potentially mylo (mislynch and lose). If the vig claims, the angel can protect him and he'll get another shot off; further, we'll have our suspects narrowed by one.

There are a couple things to consider here:

What if the angel is already dead? That's unfortunate, but it doesn't change anything. MC doesn't know if the angel is alive either, and the vig will still get his N5 kill even if he gets nightkilled himself.

What if two people claim vig tomorrow? We tell them to target each other.

What if the vig is nightkilled tonight (or last night)? This is also a self-remedying problem. MC doesn't know whether the vig is still in the game. If no one claims vig tomorrow, then we forget all about this plan. If MC claims vig tomorrow, he'll quickly be outed by lack of a N5 vigkill.

Why claim at all? First, the game is not likely to last to N7. D5 will be the last reasonable opportunity to do so. Second, town needs all the information it can get. We have a good idea which kills were from the vig, but we don't have full certainty. And finally, there's a chance that we'll catch scum in the process.

Raven
11-27-2011, 09:13 PM
I have my own crackpot theory, but I'll spare you from that. Instead, this:

It doesn't make much sense to me if it was the Vigilante who killed Red H. It's not like there's a lack of better candidates to be shotgunned. Thus, I believe that he is a Mafia kill. Now, let's see some examples of his activity:

1. Yesterday after Nich's reveal, Red accused Nodal.
2. After Nodal responded (and expressed his suspicion on Red in return), Red asked if there's enough people agreeing to lynch schep instead of poet/yimothy.
3. After a couple of people (Mogri & botticus) stated that they would vote for schep tomorrow (as in today) if poet's innocent, Red switched his vote to poetfox.
4. Also, Red had stated several times after Day 1 that we should focus our lynch on non-Kayma voters unless there is a really strong incentive to do otherwise.

As of now, there were 10 of us:

Kayma voters: Mogri, Raven, Destil, Giant Head, McClain
Non-Kayma voters: botticus, schep,Umby, Nodal, Yimothy

I feel the second group is still more likely to contain at least one MC, despite my uneasiness on McClain & Destil. Botticus is clarified innocent by Nich and it's very likely to me that Nich is telling the truth, so we're left with 4: schep, Nodal, Umby, and Yimothy. If there is still no relevant development (Vigilante reveal) after everyone had posted, I'll start accusing one of those 4 (leaning toward either Nodal or schep at this point).

Yimothy
11-27-2011, 09:14 PM
The identities of lynched players will be public knowledge. The identities of players killed at night will be known only to their killer(s.)

Mogri, I'm not going to go back and find it, but I'm pretty sure we've discussed this element of the rules before. Unless the vig killed the angel, the MC knows whether they're still in the game or not, unlike us. And unless the vig killed him/herself, the MC know if they're still in the game. Stop being a moron, start paying attention.

Mogri
11-27-2011, 09:50 PM
Because all the reasons I gave yesterday, and oh yeah, yesterday he demanded we lynch dtsund and vigkill Brickroad.

(Something tells me we're going to end up lynching poetfox or someone instead, though. Sigh.)

Mogri, I'm not going to go back and find it, but I'm pretty sure we've discussed this element of the rules before. Unless the vig killed the angel, the MC knows whether they're still in the game or not, unlike us. And unless the vig killed him/herself, the MC know if they're still in the game. Stop being a moron, start paying attention.

>Sheesh

You apologize for not having every particular of this ruleset committed to memory, but you don't see how that really changes things. Maybe if Yimothy actually considered the idea instead of nitpicking, he might have noticed that.

schep
11-27-2011, 10:35 PM
It doesn't make much sense to me if it was the Vigilante who killed Red H. It's not like there's a lack of better candidates to be shotgunned. Thus, I believe that he is a Mafia kill.
Implying the vigilante killed Nich the claimed inspector? I can't swallow that.

> schep: Consider Nich.

So that fella most likely was the inspector after all. At least that leaves a couple fewer suspects.

Then again, if he were working in shadows, he'd probably be crazy enough to have his teammates kill him just to sow confusion. But it's not like that guess would crack the case, since he'd maybe name one teammate and one innocent as clean. Poison both cups, as they say.

> schep: Review case.

Leads keep pointing at dead ends. Umby and Destil seem vaguely shady, but in pretty much the same way as poetfox did. Time to rewind and look again.

Once again, Mogri's daytalk post jumps out as extremely weird.

>Check rules

You check the rules and don't find anything specifying that there's daytalk. You also don't find anything specifying there's no daytalk.

Perhaps a higher power (or, indeed, one of the Midnight folks) could help you answer this question.
Why bring this up at all? (Mogri did answer this one, but "I thought something had implied somebody had a private chat, but I dunno why" is unsatisfyingly vague.) Why would the Midnight Crew "help" Mogri if he weren't on their team? You cut Mogri a bit of slack when Kayma turned up dirty, but is it really so unthinkable they were both dirty?

You apologize for not having every particular of this ruleset committed to memory, but you don't see how that really changes things.
To start, two of your three "what if" paragraphs are wrong or not applicable. Which leaves what, "the vigilante should consider revealing tomorrow"? Don't most town players with a special identity consider the pros and cons of revealing each day?

> schep: Accuse.

I accuse Mogri again.

Yimothy
11-27-2011, 11:12 PM
>Sheesh

You apologize for not having every particular of this ruleset committed to memory, but you don't see how that really changes things. Maybe if Yimothy actually considered the idea instead of nitpicking, he might have noticed that.

If it doesn't change things, then why bring it up? Maybe if you'd considered the idea instead of posting rubbish, you'd have noticed that. And perhaps you could explain why you quoted Nich there? As far as I can tell, it has nothing to do with what we're talking about. Here's a more worthwhile Nich quote:

I think it says in the rules (or maybe it was a later clarification by Solitayre) that we don't find out the roles of people killed at night.

Now, admittedly this doesn't directly address whether or not the mafia find out who they've killed, but personally when someone corrects me (and Nich was responding to you here, Mogri) on a rules issue I go and have a look at the rules post (the relevant part of which, both for what you got wrong on day two and what you got wrong just now, is the second sentence I quoted above), which quite clearly says that identities of nightkilled players are revealed to their killers. Even if you ignore that, didn't you notice that my case for lynching Nich yesterday hinged on the mafia being aware that they'd killed the inspector? Or how about in this TGH post (emphasis added)?

Today, a similar scenario exists, where Nich and Raven are in the spotlight. There is a very real possibility that Nich is going to die. If he comes up MC, then shit, nothing he said can be taken seriously. The only thing he can do to save his ass is role claim, and the only way he can do that is if he knows a role is dead. If he claims investigator, however, he can't continue to push Raven, because he'll come up clean, and why the hell didn't Nich inspect him if he thought he was guilty for 3 days? So he has to save Raven as well, and for his second scan he picks botticus, who may or may not be guilty, but at least makes the most sense in the investigator narrative, since he was 2nd place in votes yesterday.

I know you read it:

>Consider this

TGH has a good point, and you'd like a response from Nich.

The point of this nitpicking is that you're claiming to have not known something which you should have known. To me, that suggests a mafia pretending to be town who doesn't have a clear idea of what a real townie would know about the game. The problem with this theory is that you should have known that the town knew it, because we were talking about it.

Mogri
11-27-2011, 11:40 PM
You cut Mogri a bit of slack when Kayma turned up dirty, but is it really so unthinkable they were both dirty?

>Point out the obvious

Yes. Schep is suggesting that all but a couple players voted for MC and that MC spent day one bussing each other.

Don't most town players with a special identity consider the pros and cons of revealing each day?

>Scratch head

You're not sure what schep is getting at here, and you're not sure why this would incriminate you.

And perhaps you could explain why you quoted Nich there?

>Explain

See, that quote... actually, you're not sure how that quote got there. You didn't put it there, and it's totally irrelevant to the rest of the post.

Anyway, if all schep has is rehashes of day one arguments, you're confident with your vote on him.

>Get to the point

You challenge Yimothy and schep to point out why vig revealing tomorrow is a bad idea given that the game will not likely last to N7. You further ask them when they think a good time to roleclaim would be.

Yimothy
11-28-2011, 12:21 AM
>Talk in second person again

You challenge Mogri to point out where you said anything about when the vigilante should reveal, aside from the following: The vigilante should reveal when it seems like a good idea to them based on the information they have (i.e., who they are, who they've killed, and what the identities of those people were).

Raven
11-28-2011, 01:08 AM
Implying the vigilante killed Nich the claimed inspector? I can't swallow that.

I don't know, there was a couple of people yesterday who actually wanted to lynch Nich the claimed inspector. It's certainly very possible that the Vigilante didn't trust Nich as well and/or considered killing Nich last night is worthwhile enough to verify his innocence and everything he'd said. Not that I necessarily agree with that, but it is certainly not un-swallow-able that the Vigilante think that way.

You cut Mogri a bit of slack when Kayma turned up dirty, but is it really so unthinkable they were both dirty?


I actually did consider the possibility of Mogri and McClain being both dirty and bussed Kayma (which would explain McClain's crucial vote switch that day and his weird behavior from Day 2 onward), but for it to be the case, we have to believe that three-fourth of the MC possess a Guild-level ineptitude. Even if Mogri is the only one who bussed Kayma, it still feels really reaching. Yeah, I have to agree with Mogri here:



Yes. Schep is suggesting that all but a couple players voted for MC and that MC spent day one bussing each other.

Schep looks more and more suspicious because of that arguments he just made, and it's certainly enough for me to throw an early, possibly temporary, vote. I accuse schep.

Anyway, Mogri, there is a flaw in your vig-should-reveal-tomorrow if the MC could discover the identity of players they night-killed. Giving it another day means giving them another chance to potentially nail the Vig, and if it happens they could fake-reveal tomorrow and feed us extremely poisonous wrong information without worrying of being confronted by the real Vig. There is a possibility that they could do that today if they killed Red Hedgehog and Red was the Vig, but I strongly doubt the latter because Red was against killing Nich yesterday.

Personally, I feel it is much safer for the Vig to reveal today and provided us with solid amount of information, which would help keeping us from exchanging crackpot theories and wine-partying ourselves to (probably) another innocent lynch. But, of course it's ultimately up to him to decide when's the exact right time to reveal.

Nodal
11-28-2011, 05:14 AM
I feel more and more that either schep or Mogri is a mafia. I think I would be happy killing either one, but for now I'm going to vote Mogri. His "let the vig reveal tomorrow" plan smells like something he thought up last night with his buddies after doing some numbers. And I've never liked people who respond to questioning by trying to get the other guy to make your arguments for you.

schep
11-28-2011, 08:48 AM
>Point out the obvious

Yes. Schep is suggesting that all but a couple players voted for MC and that MC spent day one bussing each other.
For values of "a couple" equal to six. Also, late in day 1 it began to be obvious one of you two would be lynched. If I were MC and saw two teammates in trouble, that would be a very tempting time to just jump on a bandwagon to attempt to look better later. Kayma's own vote for Mogri was rather late in the day, and he may have seen it as not mattering, or a slim chance at saving himself and looking good, or throwing us off.

No, saying the vigilante should reveal tomorrow isn't a bad idea. It's just not worth the amount of discussion already given to it.

Mogri
11-28-2011, 09:21 AM
No, saying the vigilante should reveal tomorrow isn't a bad idea. It's just not worth the amount of discussion already given to it.

>Facepalm

At the time of schep's earlier post, that amount of discussion was precisely zero.

And I've never liked people who respond to questioning by trying to get the other guy to make your arguments for you.

>Break it down

Here's the way you see it:

"I'm voting for Mogri because I don't like his plan."
"What's wrong with the plan?"

There's a big difference between asking for clarification and asking for the other guy to argue for you. Besides, given the amount of heat you took on day one...

His "let the vig reveal tomorrow" plan smells like something he thought up last night with his buddies after doing some numbers.

If this were true, you'd really want your "buddies" to do the talking.

>Ask Nodal the same question

Since Nodal dislikes the idea for extremely vague reasons as well, you ask Nodal what exactly he thinks is wrong with it. Yimothy gave as vague an answer as possible and schep ignored the question completely, so you're not really hopeful here.

Nodal
11-28-2011, 10:17 AM
First off, I don't like the idea that you have a plan that leaves the vig unprotected for (probably) the last night it matters. If the vig comes out he can be angel-protected and get to shoot off his wad tomorrow. And anyone the vig kills is a kill in which the mafia gets no vote.

Second, what really bothers me now that I look at it is this statement.


What if the angel is already dead? That's unfortunate, but it doesn't change anything. MC doesn't know if the angel is alive either, and the vig will still get his N5 kill even if he gets nightkilled himself.

I doubt you didn't remember a rule that had already come up with you involved. In which case, this sentence only makes sense if you were thinking to yourself "I'm not sure if the vig killed him." But then you try to cover it up with your next post!

Mogri
11-28-2011, 11:06 AM
>Next

Well, that's at least a much better answer than you got from the others, but you don't understand this part:

First off, I don't like the idea that you have a plan that leaves the vig unprotected for (probably) the last night it matters. If the vig comes out he can be angel-protected and get to shoot off his wad tomorrow. And anyone the vig kills is a kill in which the mafia gets no vote.

Is Nodal suggesting today is a better day for the vig to reveal? You can see the logic in this, but it depends entirely on the angel still being in the game.

McClain
11-28-2011, 11:24 AM
> Spin

You think that Nich was probably a mafia kill. You think this because it would take some MONSTER balls for a vig to take a shot at a claimed inspector. But either way, there is one thing that is bothering you: Why didn't the angel protect Nich? The obvious answer would be that the angel is dead. So if the Occam's Razor thought is that Nich was telling the truth, the mafia killed him, and there is no more angel, why are people calling for the vig to surface without angel protection?

I was just being funny, not making a statement about the role name.

You note that you also know the source material pretty well, and if you had to guess (and you did before the game started) you'd have put PI in the angel role. The angel you are now pretty sure is dead.

botticus
11-28-2011, 03:55 PM
Why didn't the angel protect Nich? The obvious answer would be that the angel is dead.

Entirely possible, but it's also not unlikely that the angel took the suggestion of Nich and a couple others to play the shell game.

McClain
11-28-2011, 04:50 PM
> Stir the pot

You have a bad feeling about Umby. You aren't sure what it is exactly, but his name dropping of PI is certainly part of it.

Also:

> Consider both sides of the argument.

You think that you'd vote Nich more easily than you'd vote for Raven. You vote for Nich. Nich has not been playing like he has in previous games, and you feel that as of right now Raven has played a great game and probably did not bus Kayma. Nich may or may not be mafia, but his death will tell us a lot about who could be mafia.

If Nich is not mafia, you feel like it may be prudent to have the next lynch be either Red Hedgehog or Raven.

Here umby talks out of both sides of his mouth, praising raven for this "great game" (really?) and then immediately saying we should lynch him next if Nich isn't mafia. (Note that this is shortly before Nich's reveal.) And how about that Raven vote today?

Also he said this just a few posts before that one:
> Consider lynching Raven.
You decide that lynching Raven would sort of indicate whether his intentions were good rather than evil, and with those ominous posts talking about how tomorrow would be awesome and him coming out of Brickroad early, you're rather confused about how you feel about Raven. You postulate that you should let him live another day just to get a better feeling on him, but if the town wants Raven to be the spotlight today, then you would let them go ahead.

After Nich revealed, Umby was the very first person to change his vote, to Poetfox. Remember what Nich said earlier?

Because all the reasons I gave yesterday, and oh yeah, yesterday he demanded we lynch dtsund and vigkill Brickroad.

(Something tells me we're going to end up lynching poetfox or someone instead, though. Sigh.)

What does it mean? Maybe nothing, but it feels like Umby was just bouncing to the next easy target as quickly as possible.

And something about this post:
I have to admit, if all Brickroad is going to say is a vote for McClain, then he is pretty useless. Although that doesn't scream "Midnight Crew" or "townie" to me, it's just useless. Brickroad, take point and lead us to our victory, or you may just see a townie revolt.
...weirds you out since Brickroad was nightkilled, which apparently never happens.

It's not a great case, but it's too fucking quiet around here, and you want to shake things up. You just have this nagging doubt about him. Maybe it's the Cycle creeping up on you.

> Vote

"I vote Umby"

Fake edit: You started writing this when there hadn't been any posts hours...

Mogri
11-28-2011, 05:04 PM
> Spin

You think that Nich was probably a mafia kill. You think this because it would take some MONSTER balls for a vig to take a shot at a claimed inspector.

>Share crazy theory

...Unless the vig accidentally killed the inspector himself!

You don't actually think this happened, but you would be amused if this were the case.

>Examine Umby

You're interested in the evidence presented against Umby and would like for more people to weigh in on Umby's slip (namely, that he called Nich PI when Nich claimed PS). Perhaps that name was on his mind for some reason?

>Read Umby's iso

You don't have time for that right now.

>Read Umby's iso later

OK.

McClain
11-28-2011, 05:05 PM
Fake edit 2 (god damn I need to catch up on my sleep):


Here umby talks out of both sides of his mouth, praising raven for this "great game" (really?) and then immediately saying we should lynch him next if Nich isn't mafia. (Note that this is shortly before Nich's reveal.) And how about that Raven vote today?

Der, he wouldn't vote Raven now. Rest of the points stand.

Yimothy
11-28-2011, 06:09 PM
>Share crazy theory

...Unless the vig accidentally killed the inspector himself!

You don't actually think this happened, but you would be amused if this were the case.

There's no way this happened, because that would mean Nich fronted inspector without knowing the real inspector was dead. Unless Nich was the vigilante, in which case his play day three is very confusing. I know this doesn't matter, but I wish you'd think before you speak once in a while.

Also, what's an iso? I take it from the context in which you said it to be one petson's posts in isolation?

>Sigh

Sigh.

Anyway, Mogri you're again ignoring what I'm saying about you. You describe the case against you as people not liking your plan, and you challenge me to find fault with your plan. Well, I don't care about your plan, but the problem with it is that the vigilante has more information about the vigilante than you do and so is in a better position to decide when to come forward. They can listen to your argument if they like, but if they're going to do so they should be aware that you got your facts wrong, as I pointed out.

I'm going to vote for Mogri now, in the hopes that that will lead him to actually read this next bit: My case against you Mogri, which you've been ignoring, is that you're getting things wrong about what the mafia knows that a townie should be getting right. It makes me think that you're feigning ignorance to pretend to be a townie. The way that you ignore what I'm saying about you and pretend I've been talking about your plan makes me very suspicious too.

McClain
11-28-2011, 06:23 PM
> Consider Mogri

Mogri being dirty would be very interesting as it would mean the town had spotted two mafia the very first day, which would be amazing. It also would pluck the biggest feather from your cap for your Kayma vote. You feel this is no big loss, all things considered.

Interestingly, if Mogri is dirty, then it means that the only remaining living players with outlier votes Day 1 would be Umby, Botticus and Nodal.

> Consider possibility of Umby and Mogri both being Mafia.

Nothing jumps out at you to make you think this couldn't be the case.

Solitayre
11-28-2011, 07:04 PM
Vote Tallies

schep: 2
Mogri
Raven

Mogri: 4
schep
Nodal
The Giant Head
Yimothy

Umby: 1
McClain

Day ends in 48 hours.

botticus
11-28-2011, 07:26 PM
I'll go ahead and put my vote in for schep. I do still mirror some of McClain's misgivings about Umby, but I don't feel as confident there.

Umby
11-28-2011, 08:07 PM
I think McClain is full of bullshit and needs to be called on it. He's been stirring the pot for a while and needs to realize that I came in on Raven's side and defended him even when there was a bandwagon train to lynch him, even when it wasn't confirmed that he was a townie. I was shown that I was right when Nich revealed.

Meanwhile, McClain has thrown suspicion on Nich's results, then used said results and tried to incriminate me. It just feels like McClain is floundering. I vote McClain. I caught you the first time you were mafia, and now I've found you a second time!

Destil
11-28-2011, 08:11 PM
I can't really follow what you're saying here. You think if Nich were mafia, he definitely would have put up fellow mafias as innocents? The point it, McClain's finding Botticus suspect calling for Nich's potential vigilante killer, in the case where Nich is guilty, is contradictory to logic. If Nich is guilty and the Botticus is also guilty he has nothing to gain by asking for it to happen, as it weakens his position overall.

So here's the deal, upon careful rereading of the thread.

I'm fairly certain Nich was genuine at this point. The tempo loss and simple danger of from killing one of their own would be huge, the only way I can see that happening is if the Vigilante already killed one of the MC on night one. Likewise if the Vigilante killed him and he was one of the Crew, that is stupidly important information that we really should have, and I'm assuming we have at least an awake Vigilante that would have told us. The other possibility is that Red was the vigilante, killed MC Nich on the same night they offed him Mexican standoff style.

That last possibility isn't really hard boiled enough to follow up on, this ain't no gripping action flick(and statistical improbability).

As of now, there were 10 of us:

Kayma voters: Mogri, Raven, Destil, Giant Head, McClain
Non-Kayma voters: botticus, schep,Umby, Nodal, Yimothy

I feel the second group is still more likely to contain at least one MC, despite my uneasiness on McClain & Destil. Botticus is clarified innocent by Nich and it's very likely to me that Nich is telling the truth, so we're left with 4: schep, Nodal, Umby, and Yimothy.

I generally agree with this. Botticus and Raven I don't have a lot of doubts about. Yimmers still reads roughly as town, if he's MC he's doing a good job of playing a citizen who's playing poorly. Umby's single-minded focus on me seems pretty spot on for his town game, but last game I called a few of his contractions so perhaps he's playing a bit safer. If anything he hasn't made a big enough slip-up for me to really focus on him (which is actually not consistent with either his town or mafia game... humm...).

Of the remainder I find Nodal's participation the most perfunctory. Since the town is basiclly sleepwalking to a loss this game if we don't get it togeather (I'm as guilty as anyone) this is the playstyle that most sets off my gut.

I accuse Nodal.

I'm somewhat interested in Mogri's death, because we may be making very bad assumptions about day one if he's MC. But I'm not sure that it's time for an information kill and he reads neutral.

Destil
11-28-2011, 08:12 PM
EDIT: While I was writing this Umby made a throw-away revenge vote. If he's mafia this game he's good, because that's post before you think town Umby.

Umby
11-28-2011, 08:14 PM
It's revenge, but I literally said in a previous post that I thought McClain was suspicious today. It's his strange accusation of me that put him over the top. Although yes, I am acting a lot like townie Umby, aren't I? I wonder if there's some truth to that.

Destil
11-28-2011, 08:16 PM
It's revenge, but I literally said in a previous post that I thought McClain was suspicious today. It's his strange accusation of me that put him over the top. Although yes, I am acting a lot like townie Umby, aren't I? I wonder if there's some truth to that.

God damn, and now phrasing a statement in such a way to read as if you were admitting to being mafia?

Yeah, like I said, you're good.

McClain
11-28-2011, 08:44 PM
> Smile smugly.

You muse that sometimes it's interesting to vote for someone to see how they react. Umby is not failing to entertain.

McClain
11-28-2011, 09:47 PM
> Provide sexy numbers!

VOTING ANALYSIS!

1: botticus
Day 1: Krakenbrau (Unknown dead)(Outlier)
Day 2: Shep (Outlier)
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)

2: Destil
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: dtsund (Innocent lynch)
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)

3: McClain
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: Botticus
Day 3: Nich (Unknown dead)(Outlier)

4: Mogri
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: dtsund (Innocent lynch)
Day 3: Yimothy

5: Nodal
Day 1: Raven
Day 2: Botticus
Day 3: Yimothy

6: Raven
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: dtsund (Innocent lynch)
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)

7: schep
Day 1: Mogri
Day 2: Brickroad (Innocent)(Outlier)
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)

8: The Giant Head
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: Botticus
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)

9: Umby
Day 1: Nodal (Outlier)
Day 2: Botticus
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)

10: Yimothy
Day 1: Mogri
Day 2: Abstain
Day 3: Nich (Unknown dead)(Outlier)


Day 1 (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1192478#post1192478)
Raven
5: Nodal

Mogri
7: schep 10: Yimothy

Kayma
4: Mogri 6: Raven 8: TheGiantHead 2: Destil 3: McClain

Nodal
9: Umby

Krakenbrau
1: botticus

Day 2 (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1195588#post1195588)
botticus:
8: The Giant Head 3: McClain 9: Nodal

dtsund:
9: Umby 6: Raven 2: Destil 4: Mogri

schep:
1: botticus

Brickroad:
7: schep

Abstain
10: Yimothy

Day 3 (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1198293#post1198293)
Yimothy:
4: Mogri 9: Nodal

Nich:
10: Yimothy 3: McClain

poetfox:
9: Umby 6: Raven 1: botticus 8: The Giant Head 7: schep 2: Destil

> Look for patterns

You're too tired to look for patterns. Compiling this shit took way longer than you thought it would.

Well, okay, the first thing that jumps out to you is that Nodal and Yimothy have both stayed out of every lynch vote. If you were still after Botticus today you would find his voting record pretty abysmal. Your current target, Umby, ain't much better, especially if you count Botticus as innocent. And... that's about it so far. Maybe someone else will find this useful.

> Shamelessly quote Homestuck

It begins to dawn on you that everything you just did may have been a colossal waste of time.

>Nice

Nice.

McClain
11-28-2011, 09:52 PM
fuuuuuuuuck, already found a mistake. Umby voted for dtsund on Day 2.

9: Umby
Day 1: Nodal (Outlier)
Day 2: dtsund (Innocent lynch)
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)

McClain
11-28-2011, 10:04 PM
Oh, and Destil and Raven were in on EVERY lynch. Not sure how to read that with Kayma on Day 1, though.

schep
11-29-2011, 04:59 AM
> schep: Reset alarms
Again? Who made them go off this time?

... I came in on Raven's side and defended him even when there was a bandwagon train to lynch him, even when it wasn't confirmed that he was a townie. I was shown that I was right when Nich revealed.
Implying, I guess, that Mafia-Umby would never help slow a bandwagon barrelling at an innocent? Maybe a consideration, but hardly the vindicating proof your tone seems to be reaching for.

Meanwhile, McClain has thrown suspicion on Nich's results, then used said results and tried to incriminate me.
It's possible to throw suspicion on something, yet have it remain more likely true than false.

It just feels like McClain is floundering.
I would not call McClain's play this game floundering. Also, I think innocent players sometimes flounder just as much as guilty ones, if not more.

Destil seems to think Umby is acting too careless to be Midnight Crew, or something like that. Maybe so, maybe not.

There are suddenly a lot of different things going on at once. That's probably good in the long run - more varied data to tease suspicions out of.

Nodal
11-29-2011, 05:52 AM
Solitayre you missed my vote to kill Mogri. Also, Destil, I post when I come home from work and sometimes when I'm about to go. I refuse to make posts just for the sake of working up a post count so if nothing interesting has happened I'm not going to comment. I think I just look a lot less involved because I'm not on during the day to respond to people responding to me and etc.

Solitayre
11-29-2011, 06:50 AM
Fixed, but it's harder for me to see it when you just bold the person's name. =(

Mogri
11-29-2011, 08:33 AM
Also, what's an iso? I take it from the context in which you said it to be one petson's posts in isolation?

>Confirm

Yes. (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Commonly_Used_Abbreviations)

My case against you Mogri, which you've been ignoring, is that you're getting things wrong about what the mafia knows that a townie should be getting right. It makes me think that you're feigning ignorance to pretend to be a townie. The way that you ignore what I'm saying about you and pretend I've been talking about your plan makes me very suspicious too.

>Rebut

That is poor reasoning, though. Yimothy's logic is as follows:

- You're making mistakes about public information.
- Because you should know these things, it seems like you're getting them wrong on purpose.
- Therefore, you're deliberately misleading the town as mafia.

There are several flaws here, but the most obvious one is that Yimothy is making you out to be much more clever than you actually are. Er, no offense. It's just that you're making assumptions based on a different ruleset.

In any case, general town strategy says it's better to focus on finding evidence against others than on clearing your own name, which is why it may appear you've been ignoring Yimothy.

Solitayre
11-29-2011, 07:14 PM
Vote Tallies

schep: 3
Mogri
Raven
botticus

Mogri: 4
schep
Nodal
The Giant Head
Yimothy

Umby: 1
McClain

McClain: 1
Umby

Nodal: 1
Destil

Day ends in 24 hours.

Mogri
11-29-2011, 07:37 PM
>Get noyvuss

You're a little less than pleased with the activity level over the past 24 hours. Where is everyone?

McClain
11-29-2011, 07:57 PM
> note the obvious

You note that everyone has already voted. You wonder if that's it and everyone's just waiting for the day to end to see if they are right about mogri, or what?

Not a single person commented on your stupid long vote breakdown. Maybe it didn't really mean anything. You certainly didn't find anything significant in it.

Umby
11-29-2011, 08:34 PM
I personally don't like to see Mogri lynched, mostly because Kayma was mafia and I don't like the chances that both were mafia, but if you guys think that this will get us more information, go ahead. Just realize that we don't have that many days left.

Yimothy
11-29-2011, 11:06 PM
That is poor reasoning, though. Yimothy's logic is as follows:

- You're making mistakes about public information.
- Because you should know these things, it seems like you're getting them wrong on purpose.
- Therefore, you're deliberately misleading the town as mafia.

Uh, sort of. That you're mafia deliberately claiming to not know something that townies should know and mafia definitely do so that townies will think "well, if he was mafia he'd have known that the mafia know the identities of the players they kill" is not what I was suggesting, though it also works. I'm suggesting that you deliberately posted incorrect information about what the mafia know, not realizing that townies would know that what you were saying was incorrect.

As for ignoring me, I don't feel like you've ignored me, you've just ignored what I've been saying and responded to things that aren't what I've been saying as if they were.

Mogri
11-29-2011, 11:20 PM
Uh, sort of. That you're mafia deliberately claiming to not know something that townies should know and mafia definitely do so that townies will think "well, if he was mafia he'd have known that the mafia know the identities of the players they kill" is not what I was suggesting, though it also works. I'm suggesting that you deliberately posted incorrect information about what the mafia know, not realizing that townies would know that what you were saying was incorrect.

As for ignoring me, I don't feel like you've ignored me, you've just ignored what I've been saying and responded to things that aren't what I've been saying as if they were.

>Gesture towards vote count

You sure hope Yims considers that a lynchable offense, then.

Actually, you don't, but you know what I mean.

Yimothy
11-29-2011, 11:27 PM
Do I consider being a mafioso who messed up pretending to be town a lynchable offense? Yes I do.

Umby, it's nice to have your blessing, but is anyone actually voting to lynch Mogri for information? I'm voting for him because I think he's guilty. The only thing I expect to learn if he comes up clean is that I've been a total dick towards him for no good reason (in which case, sorry Mogri). If you don't want him lynched, maybe you should put your vote towards someone who has a chance of being lynched, or you could try to sell the rest of us a bit better on McClain.

Mogri
11-29-2011, 11:47 PM
I've been a total dick towards him for no good reason (in which case, sorry Mogri).

>Accept apology in advance

If you do take the lynch tonight, you really really hope schep gets more heat tomorrow. He's been on your radar since day two (and poet's, and Red's, and...)

McClain
11-30-2011, 09:45 AM
>Go back in time.

You take a look back at a moment on the first day. This is right after Kayma voted for Mogri. Colors are assuming that all the night kills were innocent, since the vig hasn't stepped forward, and that Nich was telling the truth about scanns (not that it totally matters for where you are going with this).


Current Vote Tallies

McClain: 1
Brickroad

poetfox: 0
Mogri

Brickroad: 0
Raven

Raven: 3
Nich
poetfox
dtsund
Nodal

Mogri: 5
schep
McClain
Poetfox
Yimothy
Kayma

dtsund: 0
Mogri
Raven

Kayma: 5
Egarwaen
Mogri
Raven
TheGiantHead
Destil

Nodal: 1
Umby

Krakenbrau: 1
botticus

At this point, Kayma has just voted for Mogri to tie the votes with about 12 hours to go. My simple question is: Why the hell would the MC let this happen?

First of all, there's three unaccounted-for MC there. Even if Nodal is one, that still leaves two votes that could have swung things onto Raven easily.

Second, why the hell did Kayma vote for Mogri? I know he wasn't totally in this game, but setting up a tie between two mafia late in the day like that would be world-class stupid. Or ballsy, but you are going with stupid.

Third, Mogri voted for Kayma early in the day. This is not how bussing works. Yes, mafia sometimes vote for mafia, but it's usually a late outlier vote that doesn't get much attention and makes them look better if/when that person gets lynched late in the day. Mogri had every opportunity to change his vote, which was based on Kayma not posting (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1191670&postcount=83). But Mogri didn't do that. In fact, after Kayma voted for him, he doubled down on Kayma (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1192122#post1192122).

You ask the town to look at it this way: if Kayma and Mogri are both mafia, why didn't Kayma vote for Raven? It would have been the easiest thing in the world to vote for the next most popular target, and then Mogri could say he was satisfied with Kayma finally posting something, and switch off of him. Maybe to Raven! Suddenly this is a very different game.

You don't like a Mogri lynch today. You think the town is getting skittish and doubting itself for it's Day 1, which was, frankly, the best fucking work they've done the whole game.

Nodal
11-30-2011, 10:30 AM
Like I said, I feel iffy about both Mogri and Schep, but Mogri is the one doing shit I find fishy today. If someone can catch schep in something I'll consider it, but Kayma did die day 1, so I can see a mafia tossing in a vote there.

McClain
11-30-2011, 11:13 AM
> Look at Schep

"Schep has a pretty crappy voting record. Can someone refresh me on the main case against him? If no one else gets late momentum I'll jump to him over Mogri most likely."

Destil
11-30-2011, 12:47 PM
McClain your reasoning is sound as far as I see it and it looks like no one else is convinced of the evil of Nodal's ways (and since I'm going largely with my instincts there I don't know how well I can convince others.

>Pick a horse in this race

I accuse Schep.

Destil
11-30-2011, 12:48 PM
I accuse Schep.[/b][/b!]

Umby
11-30-2011, 01:02 PM
I'm more convinced that Schep is dirty than Mogri, but in my heart my vote's for McClain. I'm unvoting McClain and voting for Schep.

I shall try to sell you guys on McClain tomorrow if I'm still feeling tomorrow the way I do about him today.

Mogri
11-30-2011, 01:09 PM
I shall try to sell you guys on McClain tomorrow if I'm still feeling tomorrow the way I do about him today.

>Ask that question

How does Umby reconcile McClain being MC with his day one vote-jump unless you are also MC? (You're not, by the way. You checked.)

Umby
11-30-2011, 01:30 PM
I had not seen that he vote jumped. That's certainly interesting and kills my case. The defense rests. I see no reason why the MC bus one of their members so early.

McClain
11-30-2011, 02:37 PM
I had not seen that he vote jumped. That's certainly interesting and kills my case. The defense rests. I see no reason why the MC bus one of their members so early.

> Really?

You are very surprised that Umby didn't remember your vote jump, since it was kind of a turning point on that first day, and has been referenced a few times since.

Raven
11-30-2011, 02:43 PM
So it looks like we're going to lynch schep after all. Let's recap his activities:

Day 1: Made an early vote for Mogri (for mentioning daychat), did nothing else of note that day
Day 2: Performed a fake-claim gambit early, share some thoughts on other players (aka schep Trust Points), made an outlier vote for Brickroad
Day 3: Made a vote for Destil, switched his vote to Yimothy after Nich-reveal, switched again to poetfox afterward. Both the late poetfox and Red Hedgehog stated that he was their primary suspect.
Day 4: Accused Mogri again, recycling his reasoning from Day 1 and also because Mogri proposed a (flawed but reasonable) vig-reveal-tomorrow plan.

My head said that schep is the safest and most Mafia-likely lynch today. I'm keeping my vote on him.

...my gut also said that Yimothy is guilty. There's something in his play that worried me a lot, particularly that really fishy Day 2 no-vote fiasco. But, as someone said before, it's really hard to tell if it's a genuine floundering or a super-clever Mafia trick pretending to be a piss-poor Townie.

Also, I'm kind of wondering why Nodal, who was hell-bent on lynching Yimothy yesterday, seems to forget everything about him today.

....I also had sneaking suspicion that Mogri & McClain are both on MC, but logic & common sense don't really agree with me on that point, so yeah.

schep
11-30-2011, 03:49 PM
> schep: Throw hat down in frustration.

McClain makes a good point. I had my hypotheses earlier about why Kayma might have done this anyway, but I have to admit it's weak. It's just that all other accusations seem even weaker to me.

My final suspicion list: Mogri, Nodal, Umby. One thing that got my attention: Nodal today was "happy to lynch either Mogri or schep". A bad guy would be happy to follow the noise if two innocents were having at each other, wouldn't he?

In a way I'm relieved to be lynched, because I was essentially betting the game on a guess: if we lynched a clean Mogri today, it would probably be game over after everybody lynched me tomorrow.

schep
11-30-2011, 03:52 PM
> schep: Double post.

Actually, why the heck not. I know it won't matter, but
I unaccuse Mogri.
I accuse Nodal.

Destil
11-30-2011, 04:01 PM
schep is good people, or a bad guy. you know, one or the other.

Solitayre
11-30-2011, 06:15 PM
Vote Tallies

schep: 6
Mogri
Raven
botticus
Destil
Umby
The Giant Head

Mogri: 2
schep
Nodal
The Giant Head
Yimothy

Umby: 1
McClain

McClain: 0
Umby

Nodal: 1
Destil
schep

Day ends in 1 hour.

Solitayre
11-30-2011, 07:08 PM
Day has ended. Voting is now closed.

Solitayre
11-30-2011, 07:12 PM
Day 4 Final Vote Tallies

schep: 6
Mogri
Raven
botticus
Destil
Umby
The Giant Head

Mogri: 2
schep
Nodal
The Giant Head
Yimothy

Umby: 1
McClain

McClain: 0
Umby

Nodal: 1
Destil
schep

>"schep: Hide in fort!"


http://rpgmaker.net/media/content/users/4474/locker/M16fort.PNG

You take shelter in the fort you built from the various pieces of furniture in your office. You are quite certain this fort is utterly impregnable and there is no way those rambunctious sleuths will ever find you here. You are completely safe. Safe forever.

>”Sleuths: Invade fort!”

You kick the crap out of the pile of books and plywood schep was using as a fort. It seems the fort wasn’t very impenetrable after all. It seems schep’s IMAGINATION was running away with him.

>”Interrogate!”

You introduce schep to some sleuth style interrogation.

http://rpgmaker.net/media/content/users/4474/locker/M16TheMob.gif

schep has been slain!

He was a townie.

Night has begun. It will end December 2nd, at 10 PM EST.

Solitayre
12-02-2011, 07:37 PM
>”Sleuths: Examine skyline.”

You gaze apprehensively across the cold streets of the city from your office. At the edge of the horizon, the CLOCKTOWER OF CARTESIAN ALIGNMENT chimes the hours ominously. You fear you do not have much time left.

Suddenly, from high atop the clock tower plummets a body! You race to the scene of the crime. There, you find the splattered body of Destil, or what’s left of him. It looks like the Midnight crew dropped him from the top of the tower to try to send you a message. It’s too bad they didn’t time his body to hit the ground at the stroke of midnight. That would have been badass.

>”Yimothy: Be JohnB.”

You are now JohnB. Your MOTHERFUCKER MALICHALICE overflows with OEDIPICHOR. You are fairly certain shit has never been this real before, and probably never will be again.

>”Sleuths: Pose as a team, because...”

You cannot pose as a team, because you do not know who your teammates are! The suggestion strikes you as ridiculous, to be honest.

Destil has been slain!

Yimothy has been replaced by JohnB.

Day 5 has begun. It will end on December 5th at 10 PM EST.

What will you do?

McClain
12-02-2011, 07:46 PM
> Welcome JohnB

You hang that motherfucker a one-finger salute in the most loving way possible.

> Pose question

If Nich was doubted enough as the inspector to get votes when he revealed, you wonder why the MC felt the need to kill him right away. You wonder if his vote for Yimothy lead them to believe that he would have logically been Nich's next scan, and that scared them for some reason. You've been ignoring Yim's for the most part since his PM gambit on the first day, but shit is getting tight and you need to look at every option. Just something that you'd been rolling around during the night.

Umby
12-02-2011, 07:55 PM
Can we get a good count on how many people are left, and therefore how many days we have left (probably, seeing as we don't know if the vig hit any MC). I'm curious to see if we can still do "information lynches" or if we have to take a shot at a guy who has been getting a lot of attention.

I need to read back, I have no clue who I want to go for now that both the people on my suspicion list were either vindicated (McClain) or are now deceased (Destil).

McClain
12-02-2011, 08:02 PM
botticus
McClain
Mogri
Nodal
Raven
The Giant Head
Umby
Yimothy
Destil (nightkilled N4, town)
schep (lynched D4, town)
Brickroad (nightkilled N2, confirmed town)
dtsund (lynched N2, confirmed town)
Egarwaen (nightkilled N1, probably town)
Kayma (lynched D1, confirmed MC)
Krakenbrau (nightkilled N1, unconfirmed)
Nich (nightkilled N3, claimed Inspector)
poetfox (lynched N3, confirmed town)
Red Hedgehog (nightkilled N3, unconfirmed)

We have 8 left. If there are still 3 mafia, then we lose on a bad lynch and night kill tonight, barring a possible vig kill hitting mafia.

Raven
12-02-2011, 08:53 PM
There were 8 of us now. In worst case scenario (both the Vigilante kills are innocents), we're now down to 5 innocents and 3 MC. In other words, we pretty much lost today if we lynch the wrong person (unless the Vigilante is still alive and could shot an MC tonight).

I'll reserve further judgment for now, in case there might be a possible Vig reveal.

Preview Edit: yeah, what McClain said.

Umby
12-02-2011, 09:12 PM
I mean, this may sound stupid, but it might actually be to our favor to abstain today and if we do this, the vigilante cannot kill anybody. The mafia will weed out one more person and we have a better chance of actually getting someone. Sounds like a good plan? There isn't a way where they could actually end the day if the vig doesn't kill and we don't lynch, no?

McClain
12-02-2011, 09:17 PM
I mean, this may sound stupid, but it might actually be to our favor to abstain today and if we do this, the vigilante cannot kill anybody. The mafia will weed out one more person and we have a better chance of actually getting someone. Sounds like a good plan? There isn't a way where they could actually end the day if the vig doesn't kill and we don't lynch, no?

> Disagree

While that might help us not end the game today, you're not really sure how it helps the town WIN the game in the long run. The odds are (likely) 5:3, which ain't too bad. Yeah, 4:3 is better odds, but it makes a razor-thin margin of error, too. And then you still would have to find the rest of the mafia with smaller numbers. And on the off chance that the vig is still alive you don't think his best action is inaction and potentially getting killed tonight.

In fact, just to end this line of thought ASAP, you vote for Umby.

PREVIEW EDIT: Also that thing TGH just said.

Umby
12-02-2011, 09:21 PM
Well if everyone commits to not voting, there's no way a mafia can push a lynch.

Umby
12-02-2011, 09:26 PM
Doesn't abstain count as a vote as well? Couldn't I vote to abstain?

McClain
12-02-2011, 09:27 PM
> Update voting chart, just because

1: botticus
Day 1: Krakenbrau (Unknown dead)(Outlier)
Day 2: Shep (Innocent) (Outlier)
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)
Day 4: Schep (Innocent lynch)

3: McClain
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: Botticus
Day 3: Nich (Unknown dead)(Outlier)
Day 4: Umby

4: Mogri
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: dtsund (Innocent lynch)
Day 3: Yimothy
Day 4: Schep (Innocent lynch)

5: Nodal
Day 1: Raven
Day 2: Botticus
Day 3: Yimothy
Day 4: Mogri

6: Raven
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: dtsund (Innocent lynch)
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)
Day 4: Schep (Innocent lynch)

8: The Giant Head
Day 1: Kayma (GUILTY lynch)
Day 2: Botticus
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)
Day 4: Schep (Innocent lynch)

9: Umby
Day 1: Nodal (Outlier)
Day 2: dtsund (Innocent lynch)
Day 3: Poetfox (Innocent lynch)
Day 4: Schep (Innocent lynch)

10: Yimothy
Day 1: Mogri
Day 2: Abstain
Day 3: Nich (Unknown dead)(Outlier)
Day 4: Mogri

Day 1 (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1192478#post1192478)
Raven
5: Nodal

Mogri
7: schep 10: Yimothy

Kayma
4: Mogri 6: Raven 8: TheGiantHead 2: Destil 3: McClain

Nodal
9: Umby

Krakenbrau
1: botticus

Day 2 (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1195588#post1195588)
botticus:
8: The Giant Head 3: McClain 9: Nodal

dtsund:
9: Umby 6: Raven 2: Destil 4: Mogri

schep:
1: botticus

Brickroad:
7: schep

Abstain
10: Yimothy

Day 3 (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1198293#post1198293)
Yimothy:
4: Mogri 9: Nodal

Nich:
10: Yimothy 3: McClain

poetfox:
9: Umby 6: Raven 1: botticus 8: The Giant Head 7: schep 2: Destil

Day 4: (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1200949&postcount=507)
schep:
Mogri, Raven, botticus, Destil, Umby, The Giant Head

Mogri:
Nodal, Yimothy

Umby:
McClain

Nodal:
schep

Umby
12-02-2011, 09:33 PM
"10: Yimothy
Day 1: Mogri
Day 2: Abstain
Day 3: Nich (Unknown dead)(Outlier)
Day 4: Mogri"

Raven
12-02-2011, 09:35 PM
Making an abstain vote does not mean anything at all. Even if the majority is abstain, lynch will still goes on as long as there's a person with at least one vote.

Goodness Umby, what's wrong with you in these last two days?

You're either a desperate Mafia or a power role deliberately making weak arguments, like Nich before. Which, if the latter, it's not helping us.

I think I want the answer now.

I accuse Umby.

Solitayre
12-02-2011, 09:38 PM
Hey Sol, does voting to not vote count as a vote?

No.

Umby
12-02-2011, 09:41 PM
Making an abstain vote does not mean anything at all. Even if the majority is abstain, lynch will still goes on as long as there's a person with at least one vote.

Goodness Umby, what's wrong with you in these last two days?

You're either a desperate Mafia or a power role deliberately making weak arguments, like Nich before. Which, if the latter, it's not helping us.

I think I want the answer now.

I accuse Umby.

That is not a weak argument at all. It gives us a better chance at lynching mafia if "abstain" is a vote, then if all the citizens vote to "abstain", then we have a better chance for catching a mafia. I say 3/7 is easier to find than 3/8. That is not a WEAK argument. It's probability.

McClain
12-02-2011, 09:42 PM
> Next

He counted it in the final tally when Yims voted to abstain, but it really doesn't matter since you already voted for Umby and you don't intend to not vote for someone by the end of the day.

> Who do you trust?

Today your trust list is, roughly:

-Botticus, because of Nich tagging
-Raven, because of Nich tagging
-Mogri (mostly) because of that stuff on Day 1 you pointed out yesterday
-TGH (sorta), because he's seemed on the level most of the game.
-TimohnB (barely) because his opening gambit, but dammit you don't think you can rely on that forever, but you can't see anything that suspicious about him except that whole Nich vote thing

So that leaves Umby, Nodal, though you could be swayed to one of your lesser trusties (since one of them probably has to be MC anyhow). It's been a long game, and you think people should build cases from the ground up.

You also note that if there was some crazy Mafia!Nich suicide thing going on the other night then the game couldn't end tonight anyhow.

> Question the rules

Does the game end if the MC equal the town, or when the outnumber us?

Mogri
12-02-2011, 09:43 PM
That's a great plan, until someone drops one vote with 5 minutes left and ends the game for us. This is especially bad if the vigilante is dead.

>Petition Death

Can you actively vote no-lynch?

You're still not sure this is in town's best interest, but it's worth knowing.

Umby
12-02-2011, 09:44 PM
Ok, then that's a bad idea. Don't listen to me.

Mogri
12-02-2011, 09:45 PM
>Read the rest of the thread

You should do that BEFORE posting!

McClain
12-02-2011, 09:48 PM
Each night, they will send you a message by picking off one of you, until their numbers match yours. If that happens, you’ll wish you’d never left your office.

Bad lynch today and a nightkill equals 3:3 (probably), game over.

McClain
12-02-2011, 09:52 PM
> Make a statement.

In possibly the worst timing imaginable, you have a project on Monday and a final on Wednesday, which means your brain will not be 100% on mafia this weekend. You'll still be active, but you just wanted to give a heads up.

Raven
12-02-2011, 09:55 PM
...Ok, I guess we've agreed to lynch somebody today.

I retract my accusation on Umby, for now.

To me, it's either Nodal or Umby today. Schep made an excellent point about Nodal yesterday; and Nodal's voting records & pattern really look suspicious by now.

Umby's been really strange, which is not necessarily Mafia-ish behavior, but I think I want to hear his updated suspect list as soon as possible.

Umby
12-02-2011, 10:07 PM
I shall have an updated list later, but first I have to sleep.

botticus
12-03-2011, 04:35 AM
While at this point a lot of people have shitty voting records, Nodal and Yimothy stand out as impressively lacking in information. Not only were neither of them on lynch votes, but we still don't know anything about their targets. It could be bad luck (or good luck considering all the innocent lynches) or a sign of something more intentionally sinister.

I'd like to have more to base an end-of-day vote on, but to kick things off, I accuse Nodal. I would go with Yimothy first based on that whole abstention thing, but I'll give JohnB a chance to contribute first.

I had some thoughts yesterday regarding McClain's analysis of the Day 1 voting timeline that I wanted to consider after finding out schep's alignment, so hopefully that will give me something more to go on when I get around to it.

JohnB
12-03-2011, 05:57 AM
> Hate openly

You really do fucking hate every single one of these stupid motherfuckers.

JohnB
12-03-2011, 05:59 AM
I mean, this may sound stupid, but it might actually be to our favor to abstain today and if we do this, the vigilante cannot kill anybody. The mafia will weed out one more person and we have a better chance of actually getting someone. Sounds like a good plan? There isn't a way where they could actually end the day if the vig doesn't kill and we don't lynch, no?

I accuse Umby.

Umby
12-03-2011, 12:50 PM
Are you kidding me? I made one suggestion on the basis that I thought something would work. It turns out it wouldn't and I retracted my hypothesis. Why does that make me a worthy target to vote for? This smells of mafia all over, and I believe that Nodal was someone I thought was suspicious at the beginning of the game and he hadn't been nailed yet. Let's get 'em. He wasn't saying anything at the beginning of the game and he really hasn't said much throughout it.

JohnB
12-03-2011, 02:21 PM
Ok, then that's a bad idea. Don't listen to me.

> Try to ignore this

You can't!

Nodal
12-03-2011, 07:14 PM
Oh bullshit, apparently my post last night got errored and wasn't posted. Anyway, Umby is acting super weird but I still think we should go after Mogri. Even re-reading his interactions with schep, knowing schep is a townie, I still keep feeling "One of these guys is a Mafia."

McClain
12-03-2011, 07:20 PM
Oh bullshit, apparently my post last night got errored and wasn't posted. Anyway, Umby is acting super weird but I still think we should go after Mogri. Even re-reading his interactions with schep, knowing schep is a townie, I still keep feeling "One of these guys is a Mafia."

You would like to know what was in this phantom post.

You wonder if Nodal is confident with his Mogri vote in light of the timeline of Day 1 reviewed yesterday.


I shall have an updated list later, but first I have to sleep.

You would very much like to see this list before Umby goes to sleep again.

McClain
12-03-2011, 07:31 PM
By yesterday you mean last game day, of course. (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=1200479#post1200479)

Raven
12-03-2011, 08:51 PM
Mogri

Again, what happened on Day 1 is really too strong an argument against lynching him. He might be a useful info-kill (in terms of determining once and for all whether there was a Kayma-bussing going on) but now it's simply too late and risky.


Yimothy

Not that it really means much, but the fact that he went and got replaced had considerably diminished my suspicion on him. It supported his previous statement that he was having real-life trouble keeping up with the game and under-performed as a result. Oh, and that Role PM reveal. That goddamned thing.

Nodal

Nodal, I have a question.

I'm going to vote for yimothy myself, but personally it's because I have a nasty suspicion that the best way to get people to believe brickroad about yims being innocent is to confirm brick innocent and keep his mouth shut

I feel more and more that either schep or Mogri is a mafia. I think I would be happy killing either one, but for now I'm going to vote Mogri. His "let the vig reveal tomorrow" plan smells like something he thought up last night with his buddies after doing some numbers. And I've never liked people who respond to questioning by trying to get the other guy to make your arguments for you.

So yeah, you were really gunning for Yimothy on Day 3, then inexplicably forgot all about him and aired suspicion on the two easiest lynch target the next day. That supported what schep (and Destil) said before that you display a Mafia-ish behavior by taking at the flood (which you also seemingly did on Day 1).

Also, like McClain, I wanted to know what's the content of your unpublished post.

Umby
12-03-2011, 08:59 PM
>Tear yourself away from Elf Dress-up RPG

From the little that's happened so far, it does look like Raven's trying to get Brickroad in the spotlight. And after last game's nonsense, I'm confident that Brick doesn't need any help in getting himself killed if need be.

I accuse Raven

This is what I think is indicative of Nodal's guiltiness. He threw away a vote on a Raven train. Raven is practically a confirmed townie (Nich's innocence isn't assured, but is just about) and Nodal decided it would look good for him to throw a vote on him. I think John B looks guilty, but based on Yimothy's play I'm not so sure that he's Midnight Crew. This is not grasping, it has been my opinion since the beginning of the game (go ahead and look. my vote the first day was for Nodal).

Umby
12-03-2011, 09:04 PM
You would very much like to see this list before Umby goes to sleep again.

I think Nodal and TheGiantHead are mafia. TheGiantHead has been playing it up this last day after going under my radar the first three or so days, and it just feels like he's trying to make the final push by selling the town on lynching me (a supposed "easy lynch"). If we survive until tomorrow, I think I will be pushing hard to get TheGiantHead lynched.

As for JohnB, why is making a plan that I had no idea that it had an inherent flaw cast me as MC? It was extremely legitimate until the point that one cannot vote to abstain. In fact, in dstund's last game, abstaining was a vote. So I saw no reason that it wouldn't be in this game.

If I forgot to do this already, I vote for Nodal.

Umby
12-03-2011, 09:17 PM
Didn't you do this shit with McClain yesterday?

Considering I had already thought that he was MC before he voted for me, no. As for you, my little friend, I had suspicions about you coming into this day. Thanks for confirming them. However, it seems like Nodal has a bigger number of people questioning his actions, so I will try to make do with what opinions the town has.

Also, has anyone else noticed that Nodal and TheGiantHead are trying to split the vote by voting for me and Mogri? Just mentioning.

Umby
12-03-2011, 09:24 PM
Oh. It appears it is McClain who voted for me. My mistake. I am full of mistakes today (which is why the Umby Cycle continues).

Umby
12-03-2011, 09:34 PM
You didn't answer my first question (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=1203186&postcount=547).

It's not the only reason. It's that he fell under the radar and I felt bad for jumping on Nodal when Kayma was MC. I felt like he perhaps had work to do and that's why he was saying nothing. But when Raven was confirmed to be a citizen and he continued to kind of stick around but not post, it's caught my eye. Lastly, it seems at least he is trying to split the vote by voting for Mogri.

McClain
12-03-2011, 09:38 PM
> Shrug

You came into today thinking that Umby and Nodal were two-thirds of the remaining MC. You figure at least one of them is. With Umby pointing at Nodal and Nodal pointing a Mogri, a dude you are fairly confident is town, you wonder Nodal may be the choice right now.

> Regard TGH

TGH has stayed off your radar mostly because he keeps agreeing with you. However, other than that Kayma thing on Day One your instincts have been pretty shitty, so maybe you should follow the Costanza rule and go with your opposite instincts.

If you live to see tomorrow you'll give him a longer look.

> Change vote?

Not yet. You don't want to put the wheels on the bandwagon for anyone else.

> Request vote count

Because you are lazy and going to go play Zelda before bed.

Solitayre
12-03-2011, 11:24 PM
Current Vote Tallies

Umby: 2
McClain
Raven
JohnB

Nodal: 2
botticus
Umby

Mogri: 1
Nodal

Mogri
12-04-2011, 01:09 AM
>Examine suspects

You have an absolutely fabulous track record for scum finding in the past few days, don't you? But if neither Umby nor Nodal is scum, you'll eat your hat.

Actually, you'll almost certainly lose first. But your hat is in the wings just in case.

You accuse Nodal as the more likely of the two for now, citing overall lack of participation and a poor voting record (viz., you).

botticus
12-04-2011, 07:56 AM
Considering I had already thought that he was MC before he voted for me, no. As for you, my little friend, I had suspicions about you coming into this day. Thanks for confirming them. However, it seems like Nodal has a bigger number of people questioning his actions, so I will try to make do with what opinions the town has.

Am I reading this wrong, or is this post basically saying "I am suspicious of TGH but I would rather jump on a bandwagon"?

botticus
12-04-2011, 08:28 AM
You ask the town to look at it this way: if Kayma and Mogri are both mafia, why didn't Kayma vote for Raven? It would have been the easiest thing in the world to vote for the next most popular target, and then Mogri could say he was satisfied with Kayma finally posting something, and switch off of him. Maybe to Raven! Suddenly this is a very different game.

And yet, the very different game would have the same conclusion, all other things remaining equal. That is, if Kayma and Mogri had voted for Raven instead of each other, Kayma still would have had 6 votes to Raven's 5 at the end of the day.

I think the thing that needs to be considered here is that Kayma was lynched for making two posts. Only one of which could be considered to have any content. Disregarding any likelihood of Mogri being MC as well, is it really too far out of the realm of possibility that MC individually saw the writing on the wall and figured the "lynched for being quiet Kayma" was going to be lynched on Day 1 or Day 2 or Day something and just decided to take action that would put a gold star on their report card(s) for the rest of the game?


Moving beyond that argument, we're left with what I was theorizing about on Day 2:


a) MC were already all or partially in on Mogri, leaving them without the possibility of preventing the lynch
For a) we're down to Yimothy/JohnB, if we assume Krakenbrau was innocent. That would leave 2 MC (Nodal and Umby?) elsewhere, which could at best have tied the vote.

So assuming that Mogri is innocent, Yimothy, Nodal and Umby look like good suspects. But if even one of them is innocent, a lot of assumptions are going to have to be turned on their heads - either dead people we think are innocent aren't, or Kayma voters are not what we think.

Umby
12-04-2011, 02:28 PM
I'm here now! ... Anyway, the person I find the most suspicious right now is poetfox.

This was right after someone criticized him for having only one post.

From reading botticus's posts, I can't see he added any of his opinions at all? Except for asking like 3 times if someone made a TTMafia wiki? Which is weird.

And now him trying to draw heat on yet another confirmed innocent.

Let's not forget that in previous games Nodal has been loud, this one he's been very far back and quiet. I'd hate to do all the work for the MC, but if you guys are pretty sure either I or Nodal are MC, then I'm sure Nodal is it.

McClain
12-04-2011, 03:26 PM
> Rebuff

But... Umby is trying to convict Nodal for suspecting people we found out were innocent later. That's now how it works! If that's the case, how about Umby's vote for poetfox the day we lynched her. Or anyone else, for that matter. You really aren't sure where Umby is going with this logic.

I'd hate to do all the work for the MC...

You also aren't sure what this means.

Nodal
12-04-2011, 07:46 PM
Woah, did Umby just say I was trying to split the vote, and that makes me suspicious? That's just so obviously saying anything that will come to mind that I'll take his advice and vote Umby.

Umby
12-04-2011, 08:23 PM
You also aren't sure what this means.

Well, I'm a townie. If I'm driving hard for Nodal who happens to be also a townie, then the mafia aren't sticking their necks out to win the game and I'm winning it for them. How irritatingly ironic.

Of course, with Nodal's vote, I'm ahead in the vote count (which, of course, is a bad thing for me and the town's survival). I'd call out Nodal for making a self-preserving vote, but at the same time I totally understand because if he is a townie, too, then he's making the right play. It's just that he's a dirty stinking liar who needs to be lynched because he's actually playing when it counts and hiding behind the shadows and lets other people play for him when he doesn't need to talk.

Isn't it obvious that he's MC?

Solitayre
12-04-2011, 08:53 PM
Current Vote Tallies

Umby: 3
McClain
Raven
JohnB
Nodal

Nodal: 3
botticus
Umby
Mogri

Mogri: 0
Nodal

The CLOCKTOWER chimes ominously. Less than 24 hours remain.

Mogri
12-04-2011, 09:38 PM
>Next

You also see this as a weak justification for a revenge/survival vote. Umby hasn't been particularly careful in his posts, which strikes you as more townish behavior than Nodal's quasi-silence.

Nodal
12-04-2011, 10:19 PM
I'd like to see you guys post a lot while working a tiring midnight to eight job and having to post during a break on your phone. Also Umby the only choices when you said I was a mafia splitting the vote were you and me. Your statement was just so obviously someone trying to say whatever comes up and now I'm positive two of the mafia left are you and mogri

Raven
12-04-2011, 10:22 PM
Well, yeah.

I accuse Nodal.

Raven
12-05-2011, 12:10 AM
Disregarding any likelihood of Mogri being MC as well, is it really too far out of the realm of possibility that MC individually saw the writing on the wall and figured the "lynched for being quiet Kayma" was going to be lynched on Day 1 or Day 2 or Day something and just decided to take action that would put a gold star on their report card(s) for the rest of the game?

That is also what I've been fearing these past few days. However, it still doesn't make much sense: Kayma isn't Guild. His quiet gameplan usually carried him pretty far in prior TT Mafia games (in M3, he made it all the way to the end as Mafia). It is far too risky a gamble for the MC to reduce their 4-man team straight away on Day 1, while Kayma could have easily escaped the noose by just making substance posts once or twice in a while (there was a significant amount of luck we had this game; Kayma probably didn't expect the Day 1 lynch majority to be ultimately favoring the quietest player instead of the most suspicious-looking one, as usually happened here).

But yeah, let's analyze the remaining Kayma-voters once again (excluding me, for what I hope is obvious):

Mogri
-The 2nd voter of Kayma (out of 7)
-Current votes at that time: Raven 4, dtsund 2, Kayma/Brick/McClain/Mogri 1

IF there were a Kayma-busser among our ranks, Mogri is the likeliest one. At the time he voted, it's entirely possible for him to estimate that I will probably be lynched, and thus cast a throwaway vote on somebody else to boost his credibility the next day when I'm found innocent (note that his reasoning to accuse Kayma is entirely based on low-posting, which enabled him to easily switch over if needed).

However, as McClain argued before, Kayma's vote on Mogri and Mogri's reaction to that severely hindered that possibility.

Probability of Being Dirty: Slightly possible.

The Giant Head
-The 4th voter on Kayma
-Current votes at that time: Mogri 4, Raven/Kayma 3, McClain/Nodal/Krakenbrau 1

It's worth mentioning that TGH is, as far as I can remember, the single player in the game who had never been seriously suspected (until Umby aired his suspicion today). Don't the Mafia usually kill the least suspected person instead of the more suspicious ones? But anyway, his vote practically made Kayma a joint-leader of the votes; if TGH's an MC, he sure bussed Kayma's ass real hard.

Probability of Being Dirty: Unlikely.

McClain
-The 6th voter on Kayma
-Current votes at that time: Mogri/Kayma 5, Raven 3, McClain/Nodal/Krakenbrau 1

As everyone knows, McC's switch from Mogri to Kayma is easily the most important move on Day 1. He did act very suspiciously ever since (voting against the two guys who were later pretty much clarified as innocents, wanting to lynch a claimed investigator), but yeah, I guess he could have just been having shitty instinct & luck (like every single one of us Townies) after that Day 1 dream start.

Probably of Being Dirty: Extremely Unlikely (unless Mogri is also MC, which is simply too late now to clarify).


So assuming that Mogri is innocent, Yimothy, Nodal and Umby look like good suspects. But if even one of them is innocent, a lot of assumptions are going to have to be turned on their heads - either dead people we think are innocent aren't, or Kayma voters are not what we think.

I'm pretty optimistic that if we somehow still don't get an MC lynch today between Nodal and Umby, it means the Vig probably had nailed another MC (my money's on Krakenbrau if that's the case). If there's still 3 MC remaining in the game, there's a very strong possibility that Nodal & Umby are both in MC and had just been desperately stalling up until this point. Either way, we'll see tomorrow. It still feels far more likely to me than the hypothesis that there were multiple Kayma-bussers before they even had any chance to night-chat & coordinate.

well, of course after saying that, I will be proven wrong with a Game Over tonight.

JohnB
12-05-2011, 05:36 AM
I'd like to see you guys post a lot while working a tiring midnight to eight job and having to post during a break on your phone. Also Umby the only choices when you said I was a mafia splitting the vote were you and me. Your statement was just so obviously someone trying to say whatever comes up and now I'm positive two of the mafia left are you and mogri

> Laugh your ass off

It's uproariously funny!

> Accuse somebody else

I accuse nodal.

Nodal
12-05-2011, 06:14 AM
I accuse JohnB. Fuck it, I'm not letting someone who just comes into the thread and doesn't say a single thing get off without a single vote. You guys can all do whatever, I'm going to bed and I won't be back before day/game ends.

JohnB
12-05-2011, 06:22 AM
Hahahahahahahahahahaha nodal is so fucking guilty

McClain
12-05-2011, 06:25 AM
> Grab some popcorn.

You find this whole Umby/Nodal thing highly entertaining. You wouldn't be at all surprised if they were both MC feigning animosity once the writing on the wall became that ONE of them was dying today.

McClain
12-05-2011, 12:55 PM
> Do the math.

If Nodal is innocent, and the game DOESN'T end, that means that there are only two MC left. If there's a pair of bodies in the morning, then that probably means a successful vig-kill (if one is still around). If there's just one, that means there was only two MC left for the past few days, and you would be inclined to revisit that batshit "Nich was MC" theory. Or something else is going on.

Is there anything else to discuss today, or is everyone just coasting (possibly to oblivion)?

Mogri
12-05-2011, 01:11 PM
>Be optimistic

With one MC lynch and two vig kills, the town could possibly win with this lynch!

>Be pessimistic

There is a non-negligible chance that the town will lose with this lynch.

Solitayre
12-05-2011, 06:09 PM
Current Vote Tallies

Umby: 1
McClain
Raven
JohnB
Nodal

Nodal: 6
botticus
Umby
Mogri
Raven
The Giant Head
JohnB

Mogri: 0
Nodal

JohnB: 1
Nodal

http://rpgmaker.net/media/content/users/4474/locker/M16_Tower.PNG

The CLOCK TOWER chimes. It echos ominously across the city. Day ends in 1 hour.