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dtsund
01-23-2010, 08:17 PM
Players:

PapillonReel (DEAD)
Comb Stranger (DEAD)
Lucas (DEAD, known to be an Angel)
Shinji-Fox (DEAD, known to be a Citizen)
Silent Noise (DEAD)
Brickroad
LilSpriteX (replaced fanboymaster)
Paul le Fou
Dizzy (replaced Wolf)
Epithet (DEAD)
dwolfe (DEAD, known to be a Citizen)
Phantoon
Umby (DEAD)
spineshark (DEAD)
Guesty (DEAD, known to be a Citizen)
Merus
Alice (DEAD)
Eddie (DEAD)
Ruik (DEAD, known to be Mafia)
vaterite
demonkoala
Warg (DEAD)
Rai
Loki
kaisel
Emcee Escher (DEAD)



Roles:

5 Mafia
2 Angels
1 Inspector
1 Vigilante
1 Oracle
1 Miller
15 Citizens



Rules:

We start with the day phase. During the day phase, no players may communicate with one another about the game except in this thread. No private messages, no IM, no talking about it in real life (if some players live close enough to one another for this to be possible), nothing but this thread. Discussion in this thread, however, is permitted at any time during the day phase. Editing your posts is forbidden, so everything you say will be a matter of public record.

Additionally, during the day, players may make accusations against other players. To make it clear whether you are doing so, please follow this format, bolded and with its own line and all:

I accuse dtsund.

That person will then be said to be accused. Multiple players can be accused at the same time with no real effect, but if someone else seconds one of the accusations, like this:

I second dtsund.

then all other accusations will immediately be cleared, and no more accusations may be made for the time being. Instead, the player who was seconded is said to be on trial, and every player (including the one on trial) may vote on whether to lynch him or her (with an AYE or NAY vote). Voting is allowed to begin either after the person put on trial has made one more post (to defend him/herself), or 24 hours have passed, whichever comes first. Votes are not set in stone once made, they may be changed at any time.

If there is ever a majority AYE vote, the person on trial is lynched and ejected from the game; his or her role is made publically known. Day ends.

If there is ever at least a 50% NAY vote, the person on trial is cleared and accusations may begin again. The cleared person cannot be the next person put on trial.

Additionally, players may choose to vote to not lynch anyone that day. This follows the same procedure as voting to lynch someone: one player proposes no lynch (while no person is on trial), someone else seconds this, and voting proceeds as though someone were on trial.

Day will last no less than 24 hours. If a successful vote occurs within 24 hours (either to lynch or to proceed with no lynch), it will not be acted upon until 24 hours have passed. During this time, players may continue posting and change their votes if they want.

In the night phase, it is still against the rules for most players to communicate about the game outside of this thread. Additionally, posting in this thread about the game is forbidden at night*. The only exception to the no communication rule is that the Mafia are allowed to PM one another at night. They may do this to discuss strategy for the next day as well as decide on who to kill that night.

What players will do at night, by role, follows.

Citizen/Miller: Nothing. Wait until day phase. You have no powers (except for the Miller, who has the power of showing up guilty under inspection).

Mafia: PM one another for discussion. PM me with your victim's name. All of you must PM me with the name of your victim, so I know it's not just one person acting unilaterally. If 48 hours pass without you all PM'ing me with a single name, I'll take the name given to be by the most Mafia to be your target. If the kill is successful (i.e., if the victim isn't saved by an Angel), I'll PM all of you with the role of the person you killed. Remember: you win if you outnumber everyone else, you lose if you're wiped out.

Vigilante: You have the power to kill one person each night. PM me either with the name of your victim or with a message saying that you wish to not kill anyone that night. If you successfully kill someone, I'll PM you with the role of the person you killed.

Angels: You have the power to protect one person from death each night. You may use this power to protect yourself, if you want. PM me with the name of the person you would like to protect. Successful saves will be noted in this thread.

Inspector: You have the power to inspect one person each night. PM me with the name of the person you want to inspect. I will respond saying either that he/she is guilty (if the inspected person is Mafia or Miller) or innocent (otherwise).

Oracle: You don't actively do anything, but I will PM you with the roles of those killed by the Mafia and/or Vigilante.

If a role fails to send me a submission within 48 hours, they will not act that night. If they all send me submissions early, night will end early. Once night ends, day will begin again and the game will proceed.

...I think that covers everything. Let the game begin!


*This is a pretty weak rule, actually. For instance, it's sort of acceptable for the lynched person to make a farewell post with nothing important in it, but no meaningful discussion about the game should take place at night.

Lucas
01-23-2010, 08:29 PM
I just want to say that PaillonReel guy is pretty suspicious, being above me on the player list and all.

PapillonReel
01-23-2010, 08:31 PM
I just want to say that PaillonReel guy is pretty suspicious, being above me on the player list and all.

Hmph. To be honest, the fact that you're ready to off someone this early one doesn't put you in a good light. It seems almost like you've got an agenda of some sorts you want to pull off and you're ready to start things off with a bang. Not to mention misspelling my name in an attempt to slander my identity.

Very suspicious, if you ask me. Very suspicious indeed.

Umby
01-23-2010, 08:59 PM
Hmph. To be honest, the fact that you're ready to off someone this early one doesn't put you in a good light. It seems almost like you've got an agenda of some sorts you want to pull off and you're ready to start things off with a bang. Not to mention misspelling my name in an attempt to slander my identity.

Very suspicious, if you ask me. Very suspicious indeed.

It's very suspicious to be pointing suspicions at other people without any clues being let out yet.

I have my eyes on you, Papillion of the Reels.

Merus
01-23-2010, 09:00 PM
I want to know what Brickroad is doing. You've all seen his Survivor blogs, I take it? He is going to friggin' own this game.

(And thus I've probably sealed his doom. Sorry, dude!)

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 09:03 PM
Well now for the start of the game, no one has any information except for the mafia, which using simple logic deduces that either one should wait to accuse someone or not accuse someone at all to draw attention away from themselves, now a logical person may chose to use the reverse of this line of thought, thinking that they can avoid suspicion by being suspcious, however someone might choose to place suspicion on someone without formally accusing them in the hopes that a person who follows said suspicion will accuse said person and draw attention to themselves so the one who placed suspicion will seem to be innocent, however we should pay more attention to the almost accusations rather then the formal ones, however it very well may just be a gag, a joke if you will, which may or may not contain intent to kill, in an attempt to try to look innocent someone might claim to pick at random, however if the person truly isn't a member of the mafia then this is a poor strategy for the odds are far in favor of the mafia, but if said person is indeed a mafia member then they are attempting to look innocent but are doing a poor job of it and said person is extremly suspicious.
But alas to start we must chose someone while having no real information if you are not a mafia member, so there is a high probability of it being safe to choose at random, so someone must face accusation be it just or not it must come to pass.

Anyway that's what is going through my head so sorry for the wall of text but it simply had to be written lest I forget anything.

So onward to the mind obliterating fun shall we?

Brickroad
01-23-2010, 09:04 PM
I think the first day strategy is pretty clear, actually: we should all vote to lynch no one.

If you're a citizen this works in your favor because, with so little information right now, you won't accidentally lynch another citizen (and possibly cast suspicion on yourself). It makes no sense to lynch someone totally at random.

And if all the citizens agree to lynch no one, the mobsters would be smart to play along because otherwise they stand out like a sore thumb. They should smile and nod and play nice.

Therefore, I accuse nobody and, furthermore, I suggest that anyone who disagrees be treated on future day turns as though they were a mobster. Even if they aren't, do we really want their kind of blood lust in our community? I didn't think so.

PapillonReel
01-23-2010, 09:04 PM
It's very suspicious to be pointing suspicions at other people without any clues being let out yet.

I have my eyes on you, Papillion of the Reels.

I'm just defending myself, is all. Really, you should keep an eye on Lucas, because he's the one who started singling people out on the word "go" - getting ready to kill someone to gain an early advantage is an act only someone with secret plans would try to pull off.

For now, let's just dial it back a bit for now while the game's fresh.

Epithet
01-23-2010, 09:07 PM
I just want to say that PaillonReel guy is pretty suspicious, being above me on the player list and all.

What about Comb Stranger? Is he suspicious as well? I find your singling out of PapillonReel to be highly suspicious. You must have some form of hidden agenda.

EDIT: I'm certainly not accusing anyone, lynching someone on the first day would be stupid as hell.

spineshark
01-23-2010, 09:12 PM
I think the first day strategy is pretty clear, actually: we should all vote to lynch no one.

If you're a citizen this works in your favor because, with so little information right now, you won't accidentally lynch another citizen (and possibly cast suspicion on yourself). It makes no sense to lynch someone totally at random.

And if all the citizens agree to lynch no one, the mobsters would be smart to play along because otherwise they stand out like a sore thumb. They should smile and nod and play nice.

Therefore, I accuse nobody and, furthermore, I suggest that anyone who disagrees be treated on future day turns as though they were a mobster. Even if they aren't, do we really want their kind of blood lust in our community? I didn't think so.
I basically agree, but if we don't even vote on anyone I'm not sure we're figuring anything out. I accuse nobody as well though, because hell if I know where to start.

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 09:14 PM
I think the first day strategy is pretty clear, actually: we should all vote to lynch no one.

If you're a citizen this works in your favor because, with so little information right now, you won't accidentally lynch another citizen (and possibly cast suspicion on yourself). It makes no sense to lynch someone totally at random.

And if all the citizens agree to lynch no one, the mobsters would be smart to play along because otherwise they stand out like a sore thumb. They should smile and nod and play nice.

Therefore, I accuse nobody and, furthermore, I suggest that anyone who disagrees be treated on future day turns as though they were a mobster. Even if they aren't, do we really want their kind of blood lust in our community? I didn't think so.

Ah quite so, but then waht will happen? it will end the day phase and the night will begin and what shall happen then I ask? the mafia will without doubt murder whomever they chose and then the day will start with one of us dead and still we have no information other then we know the person who died was not a member of the mafia which is completly useless. We have to make accusations even if it means we have to sacrifice an innocent simply to see how people will act and to have information on which we can make our next accusation. So my dear Brickroad no offense intended but your logic is completly off unless you are a mafia member in which case this is quite a logical thing to say so you have thrown suspicion on to yourself.

Loki
01-23-2010, 09:16 PM
Nobody accuse me. I'm not a Mafioso.

dtsund
01-23-2010, 09:17 PM
Voting may now commence on whether to proceed directly to the night phase. No further accusations in the meantime.

In addition, I'm editing the OP with something I forgot: specifically, when someone is put on trial, that person is allowed to make one more post before voting may begin (to defend him/herself). If no such post is made in 24 hours, voting may begin anyway.

Merus
01-23-2010, 09:20 PM
I think the first day strategy is pretty clear, actually: we should all vote to lynch no one.

If you're a citizen this works in your favor because, with so little information right now, you won't accidentally lynch another citizen (and possibly cast suspicion on yourself). It makes no sense to lynch someone totally at random.


I'm assuming that if someone massively screws up and reveals themselves to be almost certainly a mobster, then this doesn't apply?

A thought for fellow citizens: those who stay in the background are probably going to be early targets, after the people that the mobsters most consider a threat. The more vocal someone is, the more likely it is that someone is going to consider them a mobster, and so the more useful it is for the mobsters to keep that person around. Knocking off the silent people won't be that suspicious, and it increases the chances that they'll get one of the special players. Who's going to knock off a player that's stirring up trouble and trying to get citizens or inspectors lynched?

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 09:22 PM
Voting may now commence on whether to proceed directly to the night phase. No further accusations in the meantime.

In addition, I'm editing the OP with something I forgot: specifically, when someone is put on trial, that person is allowed to make one more post before voting may begin (to defend him/herself). If no such post is made in 24 hours, voting may begin anyway.

Well if we cannot accuse anyone then why continue the day phase?

Brickroad
01-23-2010, 09:22 PM
I'm assuming that if someone massively screws up and reveals themselves to be almost certainly a mobster, then this doesn't apply?

I'm saying... whatever you think I'm saying. =)

spineshark
01-23-2010, 09:23 PM
I'm still not sure how useful this is, but I'll go ahead and say AYE to moving to night. Merus is right, the first death is basically guaranteed to be an arbitrary quiet person.

spineshark
01-23-2010, 09:24 PM
Well if we cannot accuse anyone then why continue the day phase?
If the vote fails then it'll go back to accusations.

PapillonReel
01-23-2010, 09:25 PM
Well if we cannot accuse anyone then why continue the day phase?

We might be able to dig up a mafioso in the remaining time, for one. The longer the silence is between the start and the end of a phase, the more likely someone will want to stir something up and the more likely they may out themselves for who they really are... for better or for worse.

I'mma hold off on my vote now however (so ABSTAIN I guess?), just to see where everyone else wants to take things now.

Merus
01-23-2010, 09:25 PM
I'm saying... whatever you think I'm saying. =)
Oh I see what you're doing.

Anyway, I don't see any problem with Brickroad's reasoning, anyway, Loki not withstanding. We don't have enough information to determine anything. I vote to end the day phase.

Epithet
01-23-2010, 09:25 PM
Moving to night: AYE

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 09:27 PM
I'm still not sure how useful this is, but I'll go ahead and say AYE to moving to night. Merus is right, the first death is basically guaranteed to be an arbitrary quiet person.

AYE we have no choice sadly, but I have a question if everything that can be done at night is done then do we just move to the next day?

Umby
01-23-2010, 09:29 PM
I'm just defending myself, is all. Really, you should keep an eye on Lucas, because he's the one who started singling people out on the word "go" - getting ready to kill someone to gain an early advantage is an act only someone with secret plans would try to pull off.

For now, let's just dial it back a bit for now while the game's fresh.

Twas only kidding, Papillion. I was just making a weird joke.

Anyway, I think that ending day so early is a hasty and unwise decision. You never know what one can find out. A day you don't lynch is a day you're giving the mafia a free kill or two.

dwolfe
01-23-2010, 09:33 PM
Members of the mafia, or anyone with powers, are more likely to have spoken early.

I vote NAY to ending the turn, and suspect brickroad and anyone that agrees to skip a lynching on day one. 5/25 vs 5/24 is a tiny gain for the Mafioso, whereas 4/24 would be a huge blow to the Mafioso. It's worth striking out randomly, if you play the odds. However, given we cannot PM to protect our Angel/Psychic/etc who can verify people's trust is worrysome. The role is essentially useless since they can't have a go-between to protect them from the mafia. 15/25 of us or so are citizens, just dead meat, no loss to the greater good.

Umby
01-23-2010, 09:35 PM
Members of the mafia, or anyone with powers, are more likely to have spoken early.

I vote NAY to ending the turn, and suspect brickroad and anyone that agrees to skip a lynching on day one. 5/25 vs 5/24 is a tiny gain for the Mafioso, whereas 4/24 would be a huge blow to the Mafioso. It's worth striking out randomly, if you play the odds. However, given we cannot PM to protect our Angel/Psychic/etc who can verify people's trust is worrysome. The role is essentially useless since they can't have a go-between to protect them from the mafia. 15/25 of us or so are citizens, just dead meat, no loss to the greater good.

Well, think of it this way. If we lynch a potentially harmless citizen, even that has a huge affect. For example, if we lynched Brickroad, he's pretty active. Anyone who is active is one vote we need to lynch someone. I go by the logic that taking a stab in the dark is better than waiting and letting mafia get free kills, but just letting you know what the whole deal is.

Brickroad
01-23-2010, 09:36 PM
It's worth striking out randomly, if you play the odds.

It's both heartless and gutless to "play the odds" with a human life. What do you think this is, some kind of game?

Umby
01-23-2010, 09:37 PM
Whoops, sorry for the double post, but I also vote nay to the movement.

Phantoon
01-23-2010, 09:44 PM
I'm half asleep at the moment so I may be talking nonsense but I think we should let the day play out rather than let the Mafia kill someone for free. They'll be a turn ahead then.
I have no idea who I'd nominate though.

Lucas
01-23-2010, 09:44 PM
Wait, what? You guys want to not randomly kill someone in paranoid retribution before the bad guys have murdered anyone? That's just crazy enough for me to join in! AYE

Not to mention misspelling my name in an attempt to slander my identity.

Hey, at least I typoed it in a different way from most people.

Merus
01-23-2010, 09:51 PM
I'd like to change my vote back to nay, as I've had an idea I want to put forward: I think, with the cooperation of the angels, we can make the Inspector public knowledge, giving us a massive advantage.

Here's how I see this working: the inspector steps forward willingly. Other citizens won't step forward, but Mafia probably will. We decide publically which candidates we want to protect, and we vote to lynch the rest. If three or more people step forward, we'll have a good shot of lynching a mafia member. If two people step forward, we can preserve both of them for a time while we work out a way to differentiate between them. If we accidentally kill our inspector, it's a loss but one we can handle, as we have other means of identifying mafia and the inspector can't easily communicate their findings without exposing themselves.

What do people think? (Other than I'm trying to get the inspector killed, of course.)

Rai
01-23-2010, 09:53 PM
I'm not sure that we should just cancel the day early. We'll go into tomorrow, with one person probably dead, with roughly the same amount of information as we had today. Tomorrow we'll have one new piece of information on one person, assuming that the Inspector doesn't get offed tonight by the Mafia.

On the other hand, we may accidentally lynch the Inspector or the Angel, and if we don't, odds are better for the Mafia hitting one of them.

Actually, now that I think on it, strike that beginning portion. I vote AYE for moving towards the end of the day. Though the bit of information we'll receive from the Inspector probably won't make much of a difference, it will be at least a little to base future actions on. Lynching can wait.

Brickroad
01-23-2010, 09:57 PM
I'm half asleep at the moment so I may be talking nonsense but I think we should let the day play out rather than let the Mafia kill someone for free. They'll be a turn ahead then.
I have no idea who I'd nominate though.

They won't be a turn ahead, they'll be a turn behind.

Fact: The Mafia are going to kill someone tonight. We can't stop this.

Safe Assumption: They will kill a citizen, since they gain nothing by killing one of their own at night.

Fact: There are more citizens than mafiosos. If we vote at random we are far more likely to kill a citizen.

Fact: A dead citizen benefits the mob.

Conclusion: Our options are either come out of the first night with one citizen dead, or two. A vote at random is a vote for the mob.

spineshark
01-23-2010, 09:58 PM
Yeah, I don't see why it would be useful to out the Inspector before he's had a chance to do anything.

On the other hand, now that you've said this, the Mafia could presumably try to coordinate something to trip us up tomorrow, should we decide to do this...which would be bad.

I unvote while I try to decide how much faith I have in the democratic process here.

PapillonReel
01-23-2010, 09:58 PM
Yeah, I think it's better to wait and see who the Mafia strikes down before we start trying to narrow down who the Inspector, Oracle and Angels are (or worse, end up killing them accidentally in the process with a misaimed lynch). I change my vote to AYE to move onto the next phase.

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 10:00 PM
What shall happen now because I am the inspector, well let me tell you that Brickroad is the first to get inspected followed by Merus. Angels save me!

Now I look quite suspicious hmm? Just as planned.

dtsund
01-23-2010, 10:03 PM
Current tally for proceeding to night:

AYE (5, 14 required)
Epithet
Silent Noise
Lucas
Rai
PapillonReel

NAY (3, 13 required)
dwolfe
Umby
Merus

Merus
01-23-2010, 10:03 PM
Wait, scratch my plan. I've realised that if three mafia step forward, we're guaranteed to lose our inspector. I still think it's worth doing later, but we want to be sure that we only have a maximum of three people stepping forward, so we need to find some mafia first.

Considering this, I change my vote back to aye for ending the turn without a lynching. We have the luxury of being able to extend the game as many turns as we need to, so let's not lynch people at random. There's always the chance that we could get an inspector, oracle or angel, which would be disastrous.

Merus
01-23-2010, 10:08 PM
A double post edit: By "extending the game", I mean that we're not forced to lynch every round. We can delay our turn to see what the mafia do, instead of accelerating the end of the game by accidentally lynching citizens.

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 10:14 PM
5 out of 26 is about 20% if we lynch at random there is a 20% chance we kill a mafioso but if we end the turn then there is a 0% chance that we kill a mafioso, in both cases there is a 85% perecent chance that the mafia will kill somone unless they are saved by an angel, so they would most likely kill off somone who hasn't contributed yet. So are you willing to take a 20% chance of victory for civilians?

PapillonReel
01-23-2010, 10:16 PM
5 out of 26 is about 20% if we lynch at random there is a 20% chance we kill a mafioso but if we end the turn then there is a 0% chance that we kill a mafioso

On the flip side, if we lynch there's an 80% chance of losing a citizen, whereas there's 0% chance of killing them if we vote to abstain. Like Brick said, lynching now would more likely than not put us at a disadvantage.

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 10:19 PM
On the flip side, if we lynch there's an 80% chance of losing a citizen, whereas there's 0% chance of killing them if we vote to abstain. Like Brick said, a vote to lynch is a vote for the mafia.

I have already made up my mind, I'm just laying out the numbers.

Merus
01-23-2010, 10:20 PM
20% we kill a mafioso, but they can still operate just as effectively. If we kill one of our special players, that's a big hit, and if we kill a citizen, it hurts us a little bit. On balance, it benefits the mafia if we string people up randomly.

That suggests that we should be keeping a close eye on those voting nay. If they kill either Brickroad or I, we'll know for sure, because we're interfering with their manipulations.

Rai
01-23-2010, 10:23 PM
Right, but chances are we'll hit a civilian, and there's a chance we'll hit one of the two that we really don't want to hit if we lynch.

Now, if we don't lynch, the Mafia will hit a civilian, and there's a chance they'll hit the Inspector, Oracle, or Angel, but it's a smaller chance if we do nothing.

By lynching someone today, with no information, we're giving the Mafia a better chance at hitting a vital role in addition to pushing the game forward more quickly, likely against our best interests at this point.

Phantoon
01-23-2010, 10:25 PM
Yeah, you're right Brick. I'd probably say nominate noone. But a full day will give us data we can look at when one of us sleeps with the fishes.

DemoWeasel
01-23-2010, 10:25 PM
Put me on the AYE side.

Emcee Escher
01-23-2010, 10:27 PM
I agree that we shouldn't lynch anyone on the first day, so: Aye

Merus
01-23-2010, 10:27 PM
I'd note as well that dwolfe is the most likely candidate for being a mobster at this point, and would be worth investigating for sure.

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 10:33 PM
I'd note as well that dwolfe is the most likely candidate for being a mobster at this point, and would be worth investigating for sure.

On the flip side Merus is also under suspect with the repeating of what Brick says and how Merus changed it's vote as soon as it realised that it would put it under suspicion.

(Sorry I have no idea which gender you are.)

kaisel
01-23-2010, 10:34 PM
I'd say, for now, that we agree not to lynch anybody, as Brick said, it's far more likely to hurt us, than a mobster, also, it might be good to keep tabs on the bloodthirsty parties like Merus said.

So, for now, unless someone has an awesome argument otherwise, I vote Aye to proceed to night.

Warg
01-23-2010, 10:34 PM
NAY. NAY, NAY, NAY, NAY, NAY NAY NAY.

... why? I barely know any of you! C'mon, let's pull up some chairs, prepare some muggs o' strong joe! Let's all talk! I'll start tunin' a player piano o' mine in the meantime.

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 10:48 PM
NAY. NAY, NAY, NAY, NAY, NAY NAY NAY.

... why? I barely know any of you! C'mon, let's pull up some chairs, prepare some muggs o' strong joe! Let's all talk! I'll start tunin' a player piano o' mine in the meantime.

I can't stand coffee or tea. I do enjoy piano music though.

PapillonReel
01-23-2010, 10:50 PM
> [S] Warg: Play haunting piano refrain. (http://www.mspaintadventures.com/?s=6&p=001977)

Emcee Escher
01-23-2010, 10:51 PM
NAY. NAY, NAY, NAY, NAY, NAY NAY NAY.

... why? I barely know any of you! C'mon, let's pull up some chairs, prepare some muggs o' strong joe! Let's all talk! I'll start tunin' a player piano o' mine in the meantime.

I don't think anyone will talk. The first few posters were very bloodthirsty/suspicious and everyone else has basically clammed up to avoid being labeled as a mafioso. Mafioso is a cool word. mafioso mafioso mafioso

Merus
01-23-2010, 10:53 PM
On the flip side Merus is also under suspect with the repeating of what Brick says and how Merus changed it's vote as soon as it realised that it would put it under suspicion.

I'm under suspicion because I'm trying to convince people of things anyway. It actually had to do with realising that my plan for keeping the inspector safe actually put them in grave danger if most of the mobsters step forward. (Although we'd also know the identities of several mobsters as well, but we wouldn't have any tools to find the last mobster.)

also, I'm a he.

Silent Noise
01-23-2010, 10:59 PM
I'm a he.

Good to know... Anywho nice job of discretely defending yourself. Yes I can't spell right past ten 'o clock, I am aware of this.

dtsund
01-23-2010, 11:09 PM
Current tally for proceeding to night:

AYE (9, 14 required)
Epithet
Silent Noise
Lucas
Rai
PapillonReel
Merus
Shinji-Fox
Emcee Escher
kaisel

NAY (3, 13 required)
dwolfe
Umby
Warg

Warg
01-23-2010, 11:16 PM
I don't think anyone will talk. The first few posters were very bloodthirsty/suspicious and everyone else has basically clammed up to avoid being labeled as a mafioso. Mafioso is a cool word. mafioso mafioso mafioso

... well, it's not like we're gonna talk to each other during the night either, ya know?

This town ain't got much of a nightlife, ya know. We're all too afraid to step outside once the night hits, thanks to that Mafia. I mean, heck, I knew that coming here -- but hah, try livin' anywhere else on my wages. It's either risk death here with the Mafia, or risk death from the bitter cold livin' out on the streets of a swankier part o' town.

Anyway, yeah. The more we retreat for the night, the less we're gonna get to know each other, and the more of an opportunity there'll be for the Mafia to take a hit on one of us. It's almost kinda like they want us to retreat for the night as soon as possible, so they can do their dirty work.

Hence -- the cups o' strong joe. Might as well stay awake long as we can, so we get to know each other here, huh?

...

... hah, lemme tell ya on this piano, though, it might take me a full day to properly tune this thing. I bought it cheap, but the guy who wanted to get rid of it told me it sounded like "electric wavy squares," if you can believe it.

(... come to think of it, though, this player piano does look rather unusual.)

Anyway -- once I get it properly tuned, I was also given the instructions on how to make the rolls for this thing. Heck, I'm looking forward to hearin' the music I make from this thing myself!

spineshark
01-23-2010, 11:19 PM
Yeah okay, I vote NAY on ending early, knowing full well it won't matter anyway, and intending to vote against any possible nominations if this vote somehow does fail.

I compulsively support underdogs and lost causes.

Merus
01-24-2010, 12:07 AM
I'm checking this thread far too much. I'm not getting my work done.

Emcee Escher
01-24-2010, 12:19 AM
I'm checking this thread far too much. I'm not getting my work done.

Scoping out your targets, hmmmmm?

Nerdy
01-24-2010, 12:39 AM
I vote Aye on going to nighttime.

fanboymaster
01-24-2010, 01:17 AM
Count me as an AYE for moving to night time. No sense taking a shot in the dark.

Lucas
01-24-2010, 01:50 AM
No no, shots in the dark is what the Mafiosi do.

DemoWeasel
01-24-2010, 01:57 AM
How would you know that?

Merus
01-24-2010, 02:22 AM
How would you know that?

He read the rules post. Are you feigning ignorance, Shinji? You hiding something?

Phantoon
01-24-2010, 02:29 AM
NAY to moving to night time.

Here's a further reason - the Mafiosi haven't been allowed to PM each other yet. After the first night phase they'll have sorted out a game plan. If they're ever going to cock up it's now.

DemoWeasel
01-24-2010, 02:38 AM
I've got nothin' to hide.

What about you, Mr. Merus? Don't you have something you're hidin'? You do buy more bags of cement than anyone else I know, yet you don't seem like the home-improvement type.

What are ya makin with all that cement Mr. Merus? Eh? Eh??

EHHH?!

Phantoon
01-24-2010, 02:47 AM
Mr Fox, why are you sawing off that horse's head?

DemoWeasel
01-24-2010, 02:53 AM
My dogs gotta be fed.

That's why my dogs live longer than yours do; mine eat horse meat; yours eat evidence.

Paul le Fou
01-24-2010, 06:06 AM
I vote AYE for moving on to nighttime. I mostly just want to see some blood. With my luck I'd just get knocked off right off the bat, being naught but a humble citizen and all, but I gotta gossip with the boys at the factory about something, dig?

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 07:50 AM
Who should the vigilante kill?

Loki
01-24-2010, 07:55 AM
AYE! Night time is the right time. To kill somebody.

Merus
01-24-2010, 08:04 AM
What are ya makin with all that cement Mr. Merus? Eh? Eh??

Bombs~! :D

I'm in the Unabomber role; during the Night phase I go to the post box.

dwolfe
01-24-2010, 08:14 AM
Hey guys? Don't you see our problem here?

Us good guys, ordinary Joes and Superheros alike, can't talk privately. The Mafia can during night. It's impossible to share information without the Mafia overhearing.

Again, the mafia will guaranteed kill a citizen rather than a mafia. We will at least strike out at random today and have a shot at killing one of them. Unless someone admits to the inspector role (and how do we know they're telling the truth) and secretly protected by the angel every night, we're done for.

And how can we prove that person isn't a mafia member? The second, real inspector steps forward and the angel can't protect both! If the angel protects the wrong one, or if the mafia attack neither that night...

I'm amused that brickroad and Merus are suspicious of me. As I'm just outlining my thinking, just like they are, and when someone convinces me I'm wrong I'll admit it. I will also admit I'm using scary MATH from game theory and acting like it's all a game.

Merus
01-24-2010, 08:49 AM
I'm the one who put forward their suspicions, not Brickroad. Interesting that you assume we're on the same side just because we're putting forward the same opinion.

You say that you're using 'scary math', and then claim that it's too hard to work out a way to tell an inspector telling the truth from a mafia member who has a reason to lie. Game theory is all about constructing and solving situations like this.

The Mafia can talk amongst themselves, but because they all have the same information, this doesn't get them anything other than the ability to coordinate and strategise. More importantly, it gives the special players time to gather information, which is really what we're trying to achieve here.

And finally, the probability of killing a valuable special player is about the same as killing a mafia player if we pick someone at random. If we go by what limited information we have, we'd probably pick someone who's been advocating for others to do something. You're one of those, as am I. It's in your best interest to ensure you don't give people a chance to lynch you.

You're either really bad at your scary math, or you're trying to use big words to get your way. That doesn't mean you're mafia, but honestly I find it pretty suspicious.

Phantoon
01-24-2010, 09:11 AM
Yeah, I don't see how lynching someone tonight will achieve anything other than doubling the chances of killing one of our special players. Which would royally screw us over.

dtsund
01-24-2010, 09:36 AM
Current tally for proceeding to night:

AYE (13, 14 required)
Epithet
Silent Noise
Lucas
Rai
PapillonReel
Merus
Shinji-Fox
Emcee Escher
kaisel
Alice
fanboymaster
Paul le Fou
Loki


NAY (5, 13 required)
dwolfe
Umby
Warg
spineshark
Phantoon

vaterite
01-24-2010, 09:56 AM
I'm voting NAY, not becauce I think we should lynch someone today (I don't), but because I think we need time to gather more "data" i.e. listen to people mouth off. There's still a few members we haven't heard from yet.

As for outing the inspector early.....maybe we should give him/her the chance to do some actual investigating first?

demonkoala
01-24-2010, 09:57 AM
Well one away. AYE

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 10:20 AM
Dwolfe you forget that there are 2 angels, if we had 2 people claim to be the inspector then both could be protected. The only ones I can think of that are avoiding attention are Loki and Alice and maybe Emcee escher.

Eddie
01-24-2010, 10:55 AM
Gentlemen, I confess to having a Minor in Criminalogy from my university days. As some of you know, mafia KILLED my PARENTS. I lend all of you my deductive expertise. I therefore vote NAY to lynching, but will mix with some SCUM and VILLAINRY to attempt to root out one of our enemies (and get drunk).

- Eddie

dtsund
01-24-2010, 11:09 AM
Current tally for proceeding to night:

AYE (14, 14 required)
Epithet
Silent Noise
Lucas
Rai
PapillonReel
Merus
Shinji-Fox
Emcee Escher
kaisel
Alice
fanboymaster
Paul le Fou
Loki
demonkoala


NAY (6, 13 required)
dwolfe
Umby
Warg
spineshark
Phantoon
vaterite
Eddie


We currently have enough votes to proceed directly to night. Day has still not lasted 24 hours, but if the AYE votes hold for approximately 9 more hours, we will proceed directly to night.

dwolfe
01-24-2010, 11:32 AM
You're either really bad at your scary math, or you're trying to use big words to get your way. That doesn't mean you're mafia, but honestly I find it pretty suspicious.

Please. Apply your obvious mastery of game theory here, by all means.

I forgot there were two angels, but the same logic applies if there's three people claiming to be inspectors. Hell, it'd guarantee I'd stay alive a few days if I claimed to be one!

Oh shiznits! I admitted I messed up, I must be mafioso extraordinaire, quick lynch me!

.......

In all seriousness, the game theory problem is one of imperfect information, combined with basic statistics. The optimal strategy for the mafia is likely to take varied approaches. One or two try to become public leaders, one or two are average talkers, and one or two are pretty quiet for at least the first day or two, because odds are they won't get lynched anyway. If they all act as a power block it could be obvious, so they will deliberately vote both ways in their group.

Given this, we can at least recognize it. The mafia won't act like a group in public.

The optimal strategy for the citizens is far from clear to me, as I've never heard of a mafia game where we cannot talk in private; forming private coalitions is core to my understanding of the game. Merus, one so wise, please educate us, as it's far harder to suggest a good strategy then to tear one down.

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 02:18 PM
I accuse Percy

Epithet
01-24-2010, 02:38 PM
I accuse Percy

Really now?
Really?

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 02:46 PM
Really now?
Really?

Yes, He must be taken down. Besides we have both Shinji and Loki playing, how awesome would it be if one of them drew Percy being hanged while a bunch of the characters in our avatars watched the act, laughing.

DemoWeasel
01-24-2010, 02:47 PM
I hardly know any of youse.

I ain't drawin' shit.

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 02:50 PM
I hardly know any of youse.

I ain't drawin' shit.

MAFIA VOICE! MAFIA VOICE!

I'm mostly joking about the picture, but you just know that Percy has to be the secret godfather to the mafia.

DemoWeasel
01-24-2010, 02:52 PM
What, just because I'm Italian-American it means I'm part of the mob? Pfeh, as far as I know, this mob is all Irish.

Phantoon
01-24-2010, 03:47 PM
What, just because I'm Italian-American it means I'm part of the mob? Pfeh, as far as I know, this mob is all Irish.

Bejeezus, what're you tryin' to feckin' say yer wee gobshite? Love you really Shinji

Guesty
01-24-2010, 04:13 PM
I vote aye for proceeding to night. We still have essentially no information.
________
Arab cooking (http://www.cooking-chef.com/arab/)

dwolfe
01-24-2010, 04:16 PM
Proceeding to night, the mafia or the vigilante will kill someone; the mafia certainly killing someone non-mafia.

I'll put this out there: I AM NOT A MAFIA person, guys.

PapillonReel
01-24-2010, 04:19 PM
I'll put this out there: I AM NOT A MAFIA person, guys.

How do we know this isn't a ruse? HMM?

Umby
01-24-2010, 04:57 PM
Come on guys. I know there has probably been a few people not talking. I say we shouldn't go to night until we at least see one post from everyone. The mafia may be secretly hiding and letting us beat up each other without even showing up!

Ruik
01-24-2010, 05:39 PM
Hello everybody, sorry I'm late to the party. I didn't realize this started last night, and I've been busy today. Going to read through the posts real fast before I say any more.

Ruik
01-24-2010, 06:13 PM
I think the first day strategy is pretty clear, actually: we should all vote to lynch no one.

If you're a citizen this works in your favor because, with so little information right now, you won't accidentally lynch another citizen (and possibly cast suspicion on yourself). It makes no sense to lynch someone totally at random.

And if all the citizens agree to lynch no one, the mobsters would be smart to play along because otherwise they stand out like a sore thumb. They should smile and nod and play nice.

Therefore, I accuse nobody and, furthermore, I suggest that anyone who disagrees be treated on future day turns as though they were a mobster. Even if they aren't, do we really want their kind of blood lust in our community? I didn't think so.

This is almost right; optimal Day 1 strategy is to gain information by accusing people and seeing how they react without actually killing anyone. But at this point I'm not really sure that's possible, everyone is too scared to stand out. In hopes that we get a little more time to gather information before nightfall:

I vote NAY in going straight to night phase.

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 06:17 PM
This is almost right; optimal Day 1 strategy is to gain information by accusing people and seeing how they react without actually killing anyone. But at this point I'm not really sure that's possible, everyone is too scared to stand out. In hopes that we get a little more time to gather information before nightfall:

I vote NAY in going straight to night phase.

I'm brave, I accuse Dwolfe.

Ruik
01-24-2010, 06:21 PM
I like where you're head's at, but can we accuse until the vote to end early is cleared up?

PapillonReel
01-24-2010, 06:23 PM
You know what, I'm flip-flopping: my vote changes to NAY so we can learn more about each other. Y'know, feel each other out a bit.

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 06:24 PM
I also change my vote to NAY.

Comb Stranger
01-24-2010, 06:44 PM
I VOTE NAY

You're all forgetting, (unless I'm mistaken with the rules), that the ANGELS CAN'T SECRETLY COORDINATE EITHER. Even if we have two angels and propose publicly to protect two people, the angels would have to pick one, and hope the other protected the other guy. They might very well both protect the same one, who may or may not be the inspector. If they both protect a Mafioso, two things could happen:

1. They whack the Inspector, but we know who one of the Mafia is. That's just eye for an eye, and they probably won't like the trade, given that we haven't figured out how to use the Inspector to good effect.
2. They choose not to off the Inspector and kill a citizen, so they now know who he is, and we're down a citizen/special class. With both alive, we have two so-called "Inspectors" who will of course accuse each other. That gets us nowhere. Revealing the Inspector only accomplishes something if we know we can trust him, which of course the Mafia can easily muck up with an imposter.

Someone can probably come up with a plan to include the Oracle, so we can verify who was killed... I don't know, this is making my head hurt. I just hope the Vigilante gets really lucky.

ADDENDUM: I propose, for now, that the Angels just protect themselves, if possible. They have a viable power right now that can't be emulated during the day, as opposed to the Inspector, whos effectiveness relies entirely on trust we haven't built. Plus, with two angels, the odds of the Mafia whacking one is twice that of the Inspector, anyway.

ADDENDUM TO THE ADDENDUM: I also propose, like whatsisface, that we all choose town jobs, for flavor. I will of course be the humble barber.

Comb Stranger
01-24-2010, 07:00 PM
Whoops, didn't realize we couldn't edit posts. SORRY BOSS!

Merus
01-24-2010, 07:24 PM
I think we can differentiate between angels, to an extent. The angels know who they are, so we can make reference to things only they know. We could say, for instance, that any angels in the first half of the player list protect target 'a', and any angels in the second half of the list protect player 'b'. It's not perfect, but we can't get perfect coordination without their identity being revealed, and the mafia aren't going to be in any better position than we will be.

I do have a plan for working out which inspector is telling the truth, but I don't want the mafia to know it ahead of time. The inspector can find out information the mafia don't know, and can reveal information the mafia want to stay hidden. We can use that to decide who's more likely to be the inspector. Also, any inspector that steps forward is going to be treated as potential mafia, so I'd imagine that if we narrow it down to two candidates for sure, we'll lynch them both, guaranteeing the win for the citizens (including the poor inspector).

This is almost right; optimal Day 1 strategy is to gain information by accusing people and seeing how they react without actually killing anyone.

This seems like it's actually optimal day x strategy - being wrong about killing people hurts us, and the mafia aren't affected by one of them dying, other than being one step closer to losing. Lynching's a great way to gather evidence, but if all our 'do nothing' votes are going to be this contentious, we might not have to lynch anyone to gather it.

Merus
01-24-2010, 07:30 PM
Consider this an edit: I mean, of course, that the angels know who they individually are. They don't know the identity of the other angel.

The trap with the angels is that, if we tell them to protect themselves, and the mafia gets lucky, that angel is exposed. They'll then have to be protected for the rest of the game by the anonymous angel, or protect someone else for one night. There's a chance that we can convince the mafia that the angels were protecting someone else, but that's easier if we leave it up to the angels to decide their own strategy. For instance, I can imagine some of the more prominent players at this point being early targets, because their deaths will spark a lot of action.

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 07:37 PM
1. I was joking about being the inspector. Or was I?

2. Vigilante kill whomever you like, or anyone who seems off to you but no one has mentioned it, your ability grants you freedom to just do as you wish.

3. I would say that it is in our best interest to inspect those who speak the least first, for we have no way of gleaming information if they don't talk as opposed to a talky person who very well might slip up.

Merus
01-24-2010, 07:47 PM
I would say that it is in our best interest to inspect those who speak the least first, for we have no way of gleaming information if they don't talk as opposed to a talky person who very well might slip up.

This is a good point, actually.

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 07:49 PM
This is a good point, actually.

If you agree to this point peasents then post your feelings about it! There are only five mafia members so if six people agree then you know not all of them can be mafia trying to fool you.

Comb Stranger
01-24-2010, 08:22 PM
If the angels didn't protect themselves, and the Mafia whack them, they would be dead.

Explain to me how that is in any way preferable.

If it does happen, and they luck onto an angel, it is definitely bad, but they can't keep trying to whack them every night for the rest of the game. The Mafia needs to actually accomplish things too; the odds are very against them in a game of attrition.

dtsund
01-24-2010, 08:25 PM
The "Night Has Been Postponed" vote count:

AYE (13, 14 required)
Epithet
Lucas
Rai
Merus
Shinji-Fox
Emcee Escher
kaisel
Alice
fanboymaster
Paul le Fou
Loki
demonkoala
Guesty


NAY (11, 13 required)
dwolfe
Umby
Warg
spineshark
Phantoon
vaterite
Eddie
PapillonReel
Silent Noise
Ruik
Comb Stranger

Umby
01-24-2010, 08:30 PM
Just giving a quick heads up, if you are a prominent civilian member, you are a bigger target for the mafia.

And yeah, if somebody is just happened to be saved by the angel, one can make an arguable case that that person saved is, in fact, someone with a role or the angel itself. So yeah, don't make yourself obvious.

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 08:31 PM
This is complete non-sequiter but I find it hilairious that we have the power to contorl time.

Comb Stranger
01-24-2010, 08:39 PM
Well, it's not like the Mafia can whack someone in the middle of the town meeting. We have to go to bed first, so they can do it all sneaky-like.

dtsund
01-24-2010, 08:47 PM
I like where you're head's at, but can we accuse until the vote to end early is cleared up?

Didn't mention this before, but the answer is no. The current vote needs to be cleared out of the way.

Lucas
01-24-2010, 08:50 PM
ADDENDUM TO THE ADDENDUM: I also propose, like whatsisface, that we all choose town jobs, for flavor. I will of course be the humble barber.

I'll be the town bearded lady!

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 08:57 PM
I'm the medic! Why am I stating this?

Brickroad
01-24-2010, 09:03 PM
I'm a butcher, a baker and a candlestick maker.

Rai
01-24-2010, 09:06 PM
Y'know, trying to suss some information out for the limited time we have left sounds like fun. I'll change my ending early vote to NAY.

Additionally, because I have an awesome hat and no better role to use it in, I call dibs on the reporter, sent by the main office to report on the tragic infestation of mafia in this quiet hamlet. Ought to be fun.

Comb Stranger
01-24-2010, 09:14 PM
Rai's from out of town, LYNCH HIM!

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 09:18 PM
I'm a butcher, a baker and a candlestick maker.

Sorry Brick, you cannot escape the role of peemeister, if you want to blame someone blame yourself for making it sound so awesome. I'm just joking, be what you want.

Brickroad
01-24-2010, 09:48 PM
Seems like we've heard from about everyone so far. Lots of good issues raised, and it's obvious a few people want to just clam up and let their silence speak for them.

I think we have enough information now to conduct a solid lynching, but I'd still rather wait to see the mob's first move.*

I vote AYE to proceed to night, and since day has lasted 24+ hours that should settle the issue.

*(...said Brickroad just before he was dropped off a bridge.)

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 09:59 PM
I jyst know that when I wake up tomorrow either I'll be dead or one of my friends corpse will be right there as a message to me, and I thought that Silent Hill town I left was messed up, at least there it's monsters killing you! By the way what is the name of this town? After my sister was murdered by a monument headed man with a buster sword I didn't bother checking where I moved to.

dwolfe
01-24-2010, 10:13 PM
Brickroad's vote makes the AYE's take it.

Cool. Before the vote is called, I'll state this much. As far as I know, not only am I good, but I have no special powers.

Silent Noise
01-24-2010, 10:20 PM
Brickroad's vote makes the AYE's take it.

Cool. Before the vote is called, I'll state this much. As far as I know, not only am I good, but I have no special powers.

There is a 55% percent chance that anyone who claims this now is lying, the numbers will without doubt change tomorrow, but about 5% of the current chance may think they are telling the truth.

Emcee Escher
01-24-2010, 10:26 PM
As the town bum, I stumble off into a dark corner, mumbling to myself about the lack of proper hygienic facilities in this nameless town. Then I puke and roll over to sleep.

Ruik
01-24-2010, 10:30 PM
I'm going to have to change my vote. At this point, anyone accused is going to know they are in no danger of actually being lynched today, so their reactions aren't really going to be all that telling. I think Brick is right that there is not much more we can learn just from talking today.

I'm changing my vote to AYE for ending the day phase.

I think we have enough information now to conduct a solid lynching, but I'd still rather wait to see the mob's first move.

I'm looking forward to what you have to say tomorrow (please don't drop dead). I have some suspicions, but nothing I'd say is solid lynching material.

I would say that it is in our best interest to inspect those who speak the least first, for we have no way of gleaming information if they don't talk as opposed to a talky person who very well might slip up.

I'm not sure I agree. Sure, some mafia like to lay low, but so do some citizens. The dangerous mafia are the ones that get into a leadership position and have influence over citizens.

I jyst know that when I wake up tomorrow either I'll be dead or one of my friends corpse will be right there as a message to me, and I thought that Silent Hill town I left was messed up, at least there it's monsters killing you!

Don't you know? Man is the real monster.

dtsund
01-24-2010, 10:30 PM
And that's the vote! Night phase begins now.

The day began on a tense note. The townspeople had, that morning, received a mysterious note saying that there were Mafia among them, that there always have been Mafia lurking among them, and that they now intend to take over the town by force. Initially, it was chaos, with people pointing fingers at one another, but then Brickroad came up with a cunning plan.

"Hey, guys," he said. "We have no idea who these Mafia are, let's just accept that for the moment. Why don't we wait for them to kill one of us so we have some evidence before trying to figure this out?"

This did not make many people very angry and was generally regarded as a good idea. They retired to their houses, as they were ready for a good night's sleep... most of them were, that is.

Those with power roles (Oracle aside), PM me with your decisions.

(Note: nothing is to be inferred about roles from these stories. It's all just flavor.)

Comb Stranger
01-24-2010, 10:37 PM
Some points of note, in case I should get whacked tonight:

Mafia are unlikely to give themselves away in one post; you can't catch them in the act, and they have no reason to confess. Keep tabs of minor suspicious activity, and how those actions reflect on each other. It's paranoia, plain and simple, but that's all we have.

Therefore, given that we can never truly be sure of the Investigator's identity, we will likewise never be sure of the Mafia's identity. Angels and the oracle are helpful, but they can't win the game for us. If we refuse to lynch out of uncertainty, we will never win; we have to act with what information we have. Innocent citizens will die, but that's unavoidable.

My vote remains at Nay, but the Ayes have it for now. Goodnight, and good luck.

Comb Stranger
01-24-2010, 10:38 PM
Dammit Dtsund, you got in while I was away with an open message window. BLAST YOU FORUM MECHANICS!

dtsund
01-26-2010, 07:06 PM
That night, Silent Noise was still walking home after almost everyone else had gone to bed. Really, he reflected, it was long past time that he got himself a house less than three miles from the town proper. Or, you know, bought a car or something. Still, nothing could suppress his feeling of satisfaction at the moment. He'd singlehandedly thrown the whole town meeting yesterday into chaos for a few glorious minutes when everyone was walking around and shouting, demanding to know where the smell was coming from. They didn't know that Silent was living up to his name there...

But just as he was about to open his door, he heard a voice behind him. "I've just about had enough of you," it said. Silent Noise froze. "What do you want?" he said. The voice responded "I don't even care if you're Mafia or not. I'm a loose cannon, see? But I do know that I don't want another meeting with you in it, not after your noisome but silent work."

Silent Noise opened his mouth to ask how he found out, but never got a chance. One shotgun blast later, and it was all over save the bleeding.



Later, in a different part of town, Eddie was feverishly planning, albeit in a somewhat weird way. He was certainly afraid of the Mafia, who wasn't? But he'd gotten a few details mixed up, and was afraid of them for reasons completely independent of guns. Guns, he thought, he could deal with, unless perhaps the bullets were enchanted. After all, he'd been practicing catching swords in midswing, and bullets were no different, right? No, he'd have to really twink his capabilities if he wanted to be able to survive any attack from the Mafia.

But just as he was about to reach for his stash of the complete works of Richard Dawkins and Friedrich Nietzsche, the door to his room burst open and a number-he didn't have the presence of mind to count-of shadowy figures in flowing robes and pointy straw hats strode in. And stared at him. Through the haze of panic, Eddie noticed that one of them was holding an abacus. He felt his heart rate speed up to an unnatural rate, his extremities went numb, and his breathing became strained and difficult... he slumped to the floor, dead from fear and shock.

The Mafia nodded at one another. Know your enemy, and you can kill him without leaving any incriminating marks...


Day breaks.



tl;dr: Silent Noise was killed by the Vigilante, and Eddie was killed by the Mafia. It is now day.

spineshark
01-26-2010, 07:26 PM
Well. Here we are.

I don't think not voting yesterday gave us any leads, especially since it was perfectly reasonable to go either way. I still don't know where to start, though.

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 07:28 PM
Oh God, the Mafia has an Arithmatician on their side. RUN FOR THE HILLS

dwolfe
01-26-2010, 07:37 PM
So, anyone care to conjecture why Silent Noise was killed by the vigilante? If he were Mafia, would we have been told that, right?

I'm assuming he was killed for being active and vocal. Myself, brickroad, and Merus seem like the other potential candidates for death if those were the only criteria for vigilantism.

Was Silent Noise killed before or after the mafia kill? It'd be nice to know the timing of vigilante/mafia resolution on night turns. If the vigilante is killed by the mafia, does he get that one last kill off?

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 07:46 PM
It's definitely because he was vocal that Silent Noise was targeted. Most of yesterday, he was talking about potential targets, bluffing various roles (either seriously or jokingly) and discussing various mafia-important topics (esp. his suggesting investigating low-profile characters), so by discussing things he made himself a very noticeable target. Odds are likely he made our loose cannon nervous and got taken out for some sense of suspicion.

Either that, or our Vigilante has a strong sense of irony:
2. Vigilante kill whomever you like, or anyone who seems off to you but no one has mentioned it, your ability grants you freedom to just do as you wish.

dtsund
01-26-2010, 07:46 PM
So, anyone care to conjecture why Silent Noise was killed by the vigilante? If he were Mafia, would we have been told that, right?

No.

If the vigilante is killed by the mafia, does he get that one last kill off?

Yes; if the Vigilante or Mafia choose to kill someone, only an Angel's intervention will mean they don't die. If the last Mafia and Vigilante target each other (if it comes to that), they kill each other at the same time.

fanboymaster
01-26-2010, 07:50 PM
I think the only thing I gleaned from that is that the vigilante is a fucking lunatic (I just painted a target on myself didn't I?)

Rai
01-26-2010, 07:57 PM
I'm just hoping neither of the two killed were the inspector, so that we have some kind of intel to defend ourselves with. I for one don't intend to be killed by abstract principles in this podunk of a town.

Silent Noise
01-26-2010, 08:27 PM
You enter the house in the country, in the front room there is a person on the floor and a single piece of paper on an otherwise bare table.

Command >_

Examine body

You move over to the person and you see a point blank shotgun wound in his chest, it is apparent that the person is dead, you check his pockets but they are empty, no ID, no wallet, no keys. His face still has the same look of a mix of sadness and fear that a person has when they know they are going to die, you take a picture of his face so everyone at the town meeting can know.

Command>_

Look paper

It appears to have a message on it.

Command>_

Read message

The message reads,

"I will die tonight, this I know, for neither he who reside up high or he who rages down below can intervene, you may consider this my will, for if I wanted I could have simply left town, but no there is someone out there, a lone wolf, a madman with a shotgun, the same sort of souless person that murdered my only sister right before me, and then he let me go for he knew that I would be writhing in pain, fear and sadness, a fate worse then death itself, a hell I could not escape because of the promise I made with my beloved sister Dia, it was her dream to own a little teahouse, so full of life when she died the world ended for a time, I swore on her ashes that I would make that dream a reality, but there was a problem, the mafia had come to town in secret, no one knew who they were or where they came from all we knew was they wanted us dead, and because of their killing someone snapped and became an instument of death, blinded by their rage and driven to madness I knew the only way he could be stopped was with the blood of the mafia, dripping crimson from rough unforgiving rope used for executions.
I stirred up the croud trying to slip someone up for when you decide to live the life of a murderer you cannot avoid saying things that will get people dead. But I had failed some could not even speak for the fear that had struk their very souls, and now my life ends, no teahouse, no family, no love, my only joy comes from the thought that I might get to see my Dia again."

While reading the note you notice that on the back a red tint has appeared, a message written in dark crimson red has appeard.

I know you are reading this now for I can see you, I will follow you until I see my killer dead, I am the man that lays on the ground with the shotgun wound.

For I cannot pass on untill I see my sister's dream a reality, if you can then I will guide you in how to build it and set it up as a shop, all my sister's recipes are in the book on the shelf, If you cnnot preform this task then a cruel sad fate awaits you, this was not ordained by me, but a much greater power, if you do complete my sister's dream then a life of happiness and fortune awaits you.

It ends.

Command>_

Take book of recipes

You have obtained book of recipes, inside you find $5000.

http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/91859911/21516622

You call the police to report the crime and then you head to town.

dwolfe
01-26-2010, 08:27 PM
I'm just hoping neither of the two killed were the inspector, so that we have some kind of intel to defend ourselves with. I for one don't intend to be killed by abstract principles in this podunk of a town.

But how can the inspector give us that intel without dying? Unless the inspector waits X days and then gives up all his intel at once and asks for an angel's protection publicly nightly from then on?

How...can we trust the intel, especially if there's two+ people that claim to be the inspector, if we can't verify the information ever? (could be a mafioso playing a risky game or a guy wanting protected to selfishly win)

I'm more than a little confused on how we can establish any information at all in this strange town.

Emcee Escher
01-26-2010, 08:32 PM
So the vigilante targets the rabble-rousers and the mafia goes for the quiet type? I guess they're assuming he was keeping quiet because he was the inspector or angel or something and that he didn't want to give himself away. Or maybe they just have a vendetta against Eddie's family.

But dwolfe is right, if we have no indication whatsoever of the dead people's roles, we basically just have to lynch everyone who's mildly suspicious until the mafioso killings stop. Or until we're all dead.

Rai
01-26-2010, 08:41 PM
It's not impossible to figure out information. If we don't know something, neither does the Mafia. Therefore, if one of them comes forward as the Investigator, and we lynch whoever they claim, we learn the lynchees role. If it's Mafia, the Investigator is trust worthy. If not, they aren't, and are clearly a suspicious lot who should probably not be allowed to exist much longer.

See? Simple. And it would also allow the Angel to know who to protect at night.

Warg
01-26-2010, 08:48 PM
Hey guys, I made major progress on tuning that pia--

-- augh, man. Two fellas down?

... this just ain't right.

Silent Noise -- huh. Guess he made a lot of noise, and that just set someone off, huh? A shame, too; he was loud, but I thought he was a good guy.

Eddie, man -- he said he was an inspector. Was convinced to reveal himself. Might as well have painted a giant target on his head, but he was expecting everything to be okay, you know? He was expecting some divine intervention. Everybody was sayin' that the angels that walk among us, if you even believe in 'em, would protect him.

... naw, not that night, I guess. Those angels were convinced that they needed to protect themselves instead.

Rest in peace, fellas. We hardly knew ya.

Comb Stranger
01-26-2010, 09:32 PM
People's roles aren't revealed when they die, unless the Oracle tells us, and he could be lying as well. If the Mafia claim to be the Investigator and Oracle, we'd be lynching innocent citizens left and right.

Brickroad
01-26-2010, 09:35 PM
Yowch. Okay, let's examine what we know.

Yesterday I put forth an argument that a vote to lynch on day one was a vote for the mob, because we were working from zero information and were more likely to kill a civilian. Several people disagreed with the conclusion but as far as I know the only person who disagreed with the supporting logic was dwolfe. (By which I mean: others wanted to gather more information; only dwolfe actually wanted to kill someone.)

However, I observe that dwolfe is still alive. Which tells me a few things:

- dwolfe is alive today because he is Mafia, and was so vocal about killing someone yesterday because doing so furthers Mafia goals. OR:

- dwolfe isn't Mafia, and is still alive because they find him to be a convenient smokescreen. ("Why draw attention to ourselves if one of their own is already doing such a good job of it?")

I also observe that dwolfe was very vocal about his role in the game after he realized others suspected him. Not only did he inform us that he is a civilian, but also that he has no special powers. I found this to be particularly curious, as though he were hedging his bets. He obviously wants us to think he isn't dangerous (which we know isn't true, since he was so gung-ho about killing someone yesterday), but he also wants us to think he isn't helpful (not the Inspector or an Angel). From this I infer:

- dwolfe was telling the truth. He was letting us know he is a civilian and letting the Mafia know he isn't worth killing (because he has no powers.) OR:

- dwolfe was lying. Either he is Mafia and was trying to throw us off, or he's a citizen with special powers trying to throw the Mafia off.

What interests me most about dwolfe's last minute confession is that it strikes me as a stupid move either way. Any one of us could lie about anything they want; making such a concise statement about one's position in the game is worth practically nothing.

Additionally, since we already know dwolfe feels that lynching a civilian is an acceptable loss, but wants us to believe he is a powerless civilian himself, we conclude that he feels that his own death would be an acceptable loss.

So I learned a lot about dwolfe yesterday. I don't trust him, and even if he's a civilian I don't think he has our best interests at heart. Just what is it you're playing at, son?

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 09:36 PM
Eddie, man -- he said he was an inspector. Was convinced to reveal himself. Might as well have painted a giant target on his head, but he was expecting everything to be okay, you know? He was expecting some divine intervention. Everybody was sayin' that the angels that walk among us, if you even believe in 'em, would protect him.

I'd sooner shoot a mafioso than shake his hand, but I can't blame 'em for getting nervous with an Inspector in town. When you're dealing with shady business like smuggling and racketeering, the last thing you want on your ass is a good, hard dick and Eddie struck me as someone as sharp as they come. A shame he had to be blown away so early on, but I guess angels are too busy worrying about their own hide in a rough town like this.

Play me a song, piano man. I need something to take my mind off of this.

Merus
01-26-2010, 09:38 PM
It's not impossible to figure out information. If we don't know something, neither does the Mafia.

Not true, the Mafia know who is and isn't mafia.

We can determine the investigator without lynching, I think, but as I said before, discussing how to do that in public would probably lead to the mafia putting on a more convincing impersonation. Of course, if the investigator doesn't take notes, they'll probably be fairly unconvincing themselves.

The Oracle, for their part, knows what roles the people playing had, including if any special players were killed. No-one else knows this.

Now, the topic of dwolfe. I'm in something of a lynchin' mood, personally, but thoughts that the mafia's job is essentially to subtly encourage us to lynch other citizens gives me pause. He might just be a really bad player, and someone's convinced me that I'm on the right track thinking he's mafia.

In any case, we'll get a fair bit of information out of a call to lynch, and that's what we need. If you are a citizen, dwolfe, don't take this personally, but I can't believe you're this bad at this game.

I accuse dwolfe.

Merus
01-26-2010, 09:40 PM
Ah, I see Brickroad's chimed in. I had problems with the substance of his posts yesterday, and I noted that he changed his tune very rapidly when called on it. I do like the point that he feels citizens are an acceptable loss, so that clears my conscience.

Brickroad
01-26-2010, 09:48 PM
Ah, I see Brickroad's chimed in. I had problems with the substance of his posts yesterday, and I noted that he changed his tune very rapidly when called on it. I do like the point that he feels citizens are an acceptable loss, so that clears my conscience.

Wait, are you talking about me or dwolfe when you say "he feels citizens are an acceptable loss"?

Merus
01-26-2010, 09:48 PM
Ah, I see Brickroad's chimed in. I had problems with the substance of his posts yesterday, and I noted that he changed his tune very rapidly when called on it. I do like the point that he feels citizens are an acceptable loss, so that clears my conscience.
This wasn't clear: I'm referring to dwolfe here, riffing off of Brickroad's post.

If Brickroad's mafia, god help us all.

dwolfe
01-26-2010, 09:51 PM
Merus, Brickroad, we're one of what? Five people total that are actually having discussions at this point out in the open on a regular basis.

I gave my role in the game because I assumed I'd get killed by one side or the other last night, and as we got clarified, we only learn the identities of people we lynch apparently. I hoped this information would be of use to the good guys, as the bad guys already knew I am not Mafia.

Furthermore, given that there are 15 Citizens (16 if I'm the Miller and don't know it) the fact that I have no special power is INDEED essentially useless, true! And self serving, but it also doesn't benefit the Mafia appreciably, while making me hopefully a voice you can trust. If 10 citizens revealed this, i'd severely hurt the powered citizen's survival, and I don't suggest others follow my lead here.

But what else do I have to offer at this point when I've been accused both days of being evil? I have no information whatsoever. However, if I'm lynched, which will prove me to be a citizen, I ask fellow citizens to kill the two that accused me.

And funny how I'm not accusing Merus despite him having it out for me for no good reason. Damn, I'm such a bloodthirsty guy!

Y'all were still wrong in calling day one without a lynching, I think. The vote was close enough to support that as a valid opinion.

Emcee Escher
01-26-2010, 09:52 PM
I don't know about accusing dwolfe. He was acting very suspiciously, but it's possible that he's just a very dumb citizen, and I would like to see his defense to these accusations. I'm going to wait to cast my vote, but right now I'm leaning towards lynching him.

Brickroad
01-26-2010, 09:55 PM
But what else do I have to offer at this point when I've been accused both days of being evil? I have no information whatsoever. However, if I'm lynched, which will prove me to be a citizen, I ask fellow citizens to kill the two that accused me.

Only one person has accused you. You're not on trial here. All I asked was that you explain yourself.

And funny how I'm not accusing Merus despite him having it out for me for no good reason. Damn, I'm such a bloodthirsty guy!

If you have a theory that Merus is mafia, I for one am willing to hear it. Sad to say though that your words don't carry a lot of weight to them. Mafia or no, you did want to kill someone yesterday.

Y'all were still wrong in calling day one without a lynching, I think. The vote was close enough to support that as a valid opinion.

But most of those who voted nay hedged it by claiming they wanted the day to last longer so they could gather more information. Only you put forth the argument that we should roll the dice and kill someone.

kaisel
01-26-2010, 09:56 PM
Not true, the Mafia know who is and isn't mafia.

We can determine the investigator without lynching, I think, but as I said before, discussing how to do that in public would probably lead to the mafia putting on a more convincing impersonation. Of course, if the investigator doesn't take notes, they'll probably be fairly unconvincing themselves.

The Oracle, for their part, knows what roles the people playing had, including if any special players were killed. No-one else knows this.

Now, the topic of dwolfe. I'm in something of a lynchin' mood, personally, but thoughts that the mafia's job is essentially to subtly encourage us to lynch other citizens gives me pause. He might just be a really bad player, and someone's convinced me that I'm on the right track thinking he's mafia.

In any case, we'll get a fair bit of information out of a call to lynch, and that's what we need. If you are a citizen, dwolfe, don't take this personally, but I can't believe you're this bad at this game.

I accuse dwolfe.

Hmm, not sure how exactly I feel about this. On the one hand dwolfe is pretty dangerous whether he's mafia or not, being as bloodthirsty as he came across (acceptable losses are somewhat problematic for me). On the other hand though, if he is innocent, that's a loss y'know?

I was also thinking about Merus's plan with differentiating the angels, there's a potential chance that they both end up in the first half of the list, though I can't think of any other strategy unless we change it to something like "if your username starts with the letters a,c,f" protect dude/dudette A, otherwise protect dude/dudette B...

Eddie
01-26-2010, 09:57 PM
I can't count the number of times I've been killed with an abacus.

To the rest of the players: Good luck!

- Eddie

Emcee Escher
01-26-2010, 09:59 PM
Ninja'd. OK, here's my two cents.

And funny how I'm not accusing Merus despite him having it out for me for no good reason. Damn, I'm such a bloodthirsty guy!

Y'all were still wrong in calling day one without a lynching, I think. The vote was close enough to support that as a valid opinion.

Except all the people saying nay to the vote just wanted more time to scope people out. You were the only one arguing for a lynching.

And Merus probably isn't a good candidate for a lynching just yet. While he could be a Mafia puppetmaster, he's also one of the most active people in the game, and is probably worth keeping alive for awhile just to see if he is a good guy and does get some Mafia lynched. If his accusations turn out to be meaningless more than once or twice, then we should start thinking about lynching him.

dwolfe
01-26-2010, 10:05 PM
Additionally, since we already know dwolfe feels that lynching a civilian is an acceptable loss, but wants us to believe he is a powerless civilian himself, we conclude that he feels that his own death would be an acceptable loss.

So I learned a lot about dwolfe yesterday. I don't trust him, and even if he's a civilian I don't think he has our best interests at heart. Just what is it you're playing at, son?

Yes, we're going to lose civilians. Yes, I'm fine with dying myself. Lynching me wastes a lynching as I know I'm not Mafia, but them's the breaks, and we all know only a filthy mafia member would make themselves a target this early, right? I expect I'll get killed tonight if you don't do it.

Or maybe I did throw in that I'm an ordinary citizen so that the mafia think I'm worthless rather than someone with an important power. Oh man, you don't know for sure, do you? Am I a bulletproof Angel hoping to waste a Mafia killing? Am I an investigator playing it risky? Or am I just being honest? I'm certainly something for the Mafia to think about, unlike most quiet people here.

On my day one arguments, expanded before my probably death:

Mafia kills one non-mafia every night. Period. Vigilante and Lynching have a chance to lynch a Mafia. This chances starts at 5/25, or 20%, and goes up during the course of the game. It seems that wasting even a poor chance to potentially kill a Mafia member is rather dumb. Waiting makes it more likely to lynch a Mafia, but time is a limited resource we shouldn't have wasted. It's more likely to kill a Mafia than an important role. We have two Angels and if we accused someone important, they could come clean with their role and asked for both an Angel protection and an Oracle scrying that very night to prove it. At worst, we guarantee kill a Mafia on day 2 and the Oracle asks for protection. Or two conflicting oracles pop up on day 2, one of whom is mafia, and we protect both another night; three or more, and all but one is mafia, even better. Oracle should last several days before both angels can be killed, and during that time forms a voting block of entirely trustworthy people. If the voting block grows enough to outnumber the mafia, we win, as only those people have to survive, and even mafia have to vote with them to avoid being outed immediately.

Winning strategy. Not fully formed yesterday though, and I'm open to feedback on the system. The point isn't that all of us citizens have to survive, we just have to take down the Mafia to all be winners in a sense, y'know?

dtsund
01-26-2010, 10:08 PM
When you're dealing with shady business like smuggling and racketeering, the last thing you want on your ass is a good, hard dick...

That's the last thing I want on my ass anyway.




Accused: dwolfe

If dwolfe is seconded, voting may begin on him after he makes another post (giving him a chance to defend), or after 24 hours pass, whichever comes first.

Merus
01-26-2010, 10:10 PM
I don't know about accusing dwolfe. He was acting very suspiciously, but it's possible that he's just a very dumb citizen, and I would like to see his defense to these accusations. I'm going to wait to cast my vote, but right now I'm leaning towards lynching him.

To be fair: I'd love to see other defences for these accusations as well. I won't hold any animosity towards dwolfe if the vote fails, because we'll hopefully have yet more information, including suspicious behaviour on day 1.

Dwolfe's defence doesn't address the critical point - why is he giving such terrible gameplay advice, advice that both Brickroad and I are fairly easily refuting? If he was innocent, he would have taken the lesson he should have learned on day 1, and kept quiet at the start of day 2, instead of telling us all that there's no way to tell who's mafia and who isn't so we should just start lynching randomly. (And also asking immediately about why the vigilante did what they did, completely ignoring the mafia kill which itself has meaning behind it). His defence boils down to "guys, I might be a citizen". Thanks for that. We know that. Even if you are a citizen, keeping you quiet might be useful so we don't have to listen to any more terrible ideas.

I note that I'm the only one that aired their suspicions during day 1 against dwolfe. Everyone else had issues with strategies, but didn't see that as evidence of manipulation.

Brickroad
01-26-2010, 10:11 PM
You say that a 20% shot in the dark is worth taking, but remember that we would have had a 20% chance of killing one of our power players. For your argument to work you would have to simultaneously believe that a 20% chance is worth taking and that a 20% risk is worth taking. It's logically inconsistent.

I therefore conclude you are either a mobster trying to sell us on a faulty strategy, or you are a civilian with a terrible grasp of numbers.

Comb Stranger
01-26-2010, 10:11 PM
I neither find dwolfe suspicious nor dumb, though posting that you're a citizen is entirely worthless; it's assumed everyone is pretending to be a citizen.

Merus, on the other hand, has posted very bad ideas at an alarming rate, flip-flopping when called on it. He immediately voted for early nightfall, and now wants to lynch the member most supportive of an active Mafia hunt. By my reckoning, Merus tops the Suspicion Index. Followed, of course, by Alice, who has posted nothing except to prematurely vote for nightfall.

Therefore, I vote NAY to lynching dwolfe.

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 10:14 PM
On my day one arguments, expanded before my probably death:

Mafia kills one non-mafia every night. Period. Vigilante and Lynching have a chance to lynch a Mafia. This chances starts at 5/25, or 20%, and goes up during the course of the game.

We also start with a staggering 80% chance of lynching a citizen, and also a 20% overall chance of lynching an Inspector, Angel or Oracle. Even if you were to luck out and hit a mafioso, it doesn't change the fact that you were willing to throw away people's lives just to mitigate the odds - not to mention perfectly willing to start us at a loss more than 4/5s of the time. We shouldn't be toying with people's lives this way just to get rid of the mafia - the ends don't justify the means.

Dwolfe, even if it turns out you aren't mafia, it doesn't change the fact that you're the most under suspicion at this point and as such an investigation is warranted. So with all the evidence at display here, I formally accuse dwolfe of Organized Crime and Murder.

dtsund
01-26-2010, 10:14 PM
Therefore, I vote NAY to lynching dwolfe.

There's no voting yet; he hasn't been seconded.

EDIT: and PapillonReel ninjas me, and seconds him.


Voting on dwolfe may begin as soon as he makes his next post or when 24 hours pass. Probably the former.

Brickroad
01-26-2010, 10:15 PM
He immediately voted for early nightfall, and now wants to lynch the member most supportive of an active Mafia hunt.

Careful, Jack. dwolfe isn't in favor of a Mafia hunt, he's in favor if an anyone hunt and if he happens to clip a mobster in the process, more's the better. I wouldn't be so quick to agree with him if I were you.

I have a few things to say about Merus, too, but I'll hold off on it until we get this dwolfe business sorted.

Merus
01-26-2010, 10:16 PM
I was also thinking about Merus's plan with differentiating the angels, there's a potential chance that they both end up in the first half of the list, though I can't think of any other strategy unless we change it to something like "if your username starts with the letters a,c,f" protect dude/dudette A, otherwise protect dude/dudette B...

It's a fairly good chance, but consider: the mafia don't know where the angels are either, so if both are in the front of the list, and protect player A, the mafia have no idea if player A is protected.

Consider it like two coin flips: there's about a 50% chance (to make the maths easy) that an angel is in the first half of the list.
The odds of the angels being:
Both in the first half - 25%
One each in each half - 50%
Both in the second half - 25%.

So, the odds of players A and B being protected are:
A exposed - 25%
A and B safe - 50%
B exposed - 25%

These aren't great odds for sure, but remember that the mafia doesn't know where the angels are either, so for them it's essentially random chance. They have to pick only one, and they have a 25% chance to get a kill, assuming both angels are still up. It's easier for them to just kill someone else.

dwolfe
01-26-2010, 10:17 PM
I don't know about accusing dwolfe. He was acting very suspiciously, but it's possible that he's just a very dumb citizen, and I would like to see his defense to these accusations. I'm going to wait to cast my vote, but right now I'm leaning towards lynching him.

By the way, guys. Christ. I'm not dumb, I just have a different view of winning than most of you. I don't care if I survive, if the good guys win, my death will have been avenged.

I always play these games rather...uniquely, because I have faith that when I die in this game I will be resurrected someday to play again; there is no real death penalty. Sometimes I die and sometimes I last because surely NO ONE could be that stupid!

PS: you're right, brick, it's been Merus that's not liked me from the start, along with Silent Noise, who actually accused me:

I'd note as well that dwolfe is the most likely candidate for being a mobster at this point, and would be worth investigating for sure.

I'm brave, I accuse Dwolfe.

Ruik liked SN's accusation but not enough to second it, which would have been moot as the vote to end early was still unresolved. SN was active but prone to spouting random ideas, and his being killed over the other actives seems odd as well.

I'm still not sure how useful Day 1 was, given that we couldn't accuse with the vote to end early open the whole day, to be honest. A point most people seemed to have overlooked.

dwolfe
01-26-2010, 10:27 PM
Ninja accused! (I'll keep this brief, but I'm taking a second post due to the ninjaing...I was looking back over the thread for quotes in my last post and did not know I was formally accused).

Merus, for you to accuse me of bad play is laughable. I made it clear from the outset that I am VETTING IDEAS, and am asking for critical feedback. When wrong, I have tried to read replies, admit my mistakes, and expend my own ideas in public.

Brick, you're way smarter than this, and that makes me suspicious. I already explained that if a power player was revealed from the day one accusation, BOTH angels could have protected them. And the oracle scry that single power player on Night 1. If it were a mafia, we'd find out, and if a power player, they're untouchable; having both angels perma-protect, or having ONE of the two angels out themselves and perma-protect themselves instead.

You even agreed that accusing on day one would have given us information, yet you voted AYE to end the day without actually ever accusing someone. I'd like to see you justify how I'm wrong here, because I don't see it.

PapillonReed, you're jumping on a bandwagon, and voted to skip day one and waste a precious day's research. We're just fundamentally conflicting on how we approach things., but i can't hold it against you.

I vote NAY to lynching dwolfe

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 10:32 PM
PapillonReed, you're jumping on a bandwagon, and voted to skip day one and waste a precious day's research.

Actually I redacted my earlier vote and decided to let the entire day play out for more info. Not that it turned out how I hoped, but that's all in the past.

Brickroad
01-26-2010, 10:35 PM
Sorry dwolfe, but I'm not convinced. The game you want to play is based largely on assumptions and guesswork; I'd much rather stick to facts. You're either a mobster trying to get us civilians to adopt bad strategy, or you're a civilian with poor strategy that will only serve to confuse other civilians. Either way, I think we're better off without you.

I vote to lynch dwolfe. AYE.

I will address this though:

You even agreed that accusing on day one would have given us information, yet you voted AYE to end the day without actually ever accusing someone. I'd like to see you justify how I'm wrong here, because I don't see it.

I both wanted time to gather information and wanted to end the day without a lynching. By accusing no one up front and then voting affirmatively on that proposal only when it was in danger of being defeated, I got both.

Comb Stranger
01-26-2010, 10:37 PM
Mafia wouldn't be dumb enough to jump to the defense of their own before seeing how the citizens play the vote out. Hopefully I've put out enough (subjectively) good advice to avoid critical suspicion, if not, so be it.

Now that the vote has officially started, I officially vote NAY.

Dwolfe is a bit bloodthirsty maybe, but unless I'm mistaken, he didn't actually propose a lynching himself; just posited that the odds were on our side if we should start. If dwolfe is right (in the view of the Mafia, anyway) and an active lynching is in our best interest (you can keep arguing the numbers, they hurt my humble barber brain), then it would also behoove the Mafia to have him executed. At any rate, he's put forth the only suggestion that isn't doing nothing, or doing nothing until we magically know better.

Granted, this is all going to be moot, because I'm sure 18 people have posted while I was composing this.

Merus
01-26-2010, 10:39 PM
I'm fully willing to cope to being suspicious of dwolfe from the beginning, and I'm happy to talk about why I came to that conclusion.

Basically, I know Brickroad is a smart cookie from metagaming, and he's been, to my mind, fairly open about explaining his strategies. We have the advantage of numbers. If we operate out in the open, we're more likely to muddle along to a strategy that's sound, and one that the mafia can't interfere with without drawing our attention. As soon as dwolfe tried to turn Brickroad's pontificating into "Brickroad is probably mafia", my opinion on him soured, and his continual strategy posts that were easy to refute only made that opinion stronger. As I noted before, I feel like someone who was innocent, and wanted to be seen as innocent, would step back a bit so they could be useful later. We don't have to lynch if we don't want to, which gives us one more day to gather information, and as we saw, the vote to end the day can be contentious enough to bring people out.

I also want to address this:

Merus, on the other hand, has posted very bad ideas at an alarming rate, flip-flopping when called on it. He immediately voted for early nightfall, and now wants to lynch the member most supportive of an active Mafia hunt.

As I explained: I felt Brickroad's reasoning was sound, we didn't need to lynch anyone to get information, which is why I jumped right on board that train. Also, I'm following the strategy of hashing out strategy ideas in the open, and fully expect a few of them to be stinkers. I'm happy to explain the ones I think are winners, and happy to withdraw the ones I see are flawed. For instance, the idea I had early on with getting the angels to protect the inspector I realised would very likely end up with a dead inspector if enough mafia players stepped forward. (We wouldn't be able to protect them adequetly if we got it wrong, and while we would be protecting mafia, we'd know they were mafia so they wouldn't be able to hide once we ask the angels to remove their protection.) I don't think anyone else noticed that specific aspect, but they complained about the idea of the Inspector being public knowledge. (The inspector is going to need to be public at some point to communicate their findings.)

And as I said, I don't think "most wants to kill mafia" and "most wants to kill people and hope that they're mafia" are the same thing. I don't want to string up people without knowing for sure that they're mafia - which is why I'm not voting aye or nay for the lynching until I see more argument. Every time we string someone up, that's one day less we have to expose the mafia than if we'd merely argued.

I know at some point I'm going to be lynched or murdered, and I accept that. I've been too prominent. I figure that, if I put enough good ideas out there, that we can trap the mafia and win even after I'm dead.

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 10:40 PM
Oh, and before I forget: I vote AYE to the lynching of dwolfe for my aforementioned reasons. I only pray that this ends up being for the greater good...

vaterite
01-26-2010, 10:42 PM
Mafia wouldn't be dumb enough to jump to the defense of their own before seeing how the citizens play the vote out.

Never go up against a Sicillian when death is on the line.

demonkoala
01-26-2010, 10:42 PM
It's still a bit early to be lynching methinks. Not to mention, as someone else mentioned before (I can't be arsed to look back at who it was...sorry) dwolfe is a vocal member, and as we are learning more about ourselves in our not so peaceful town, I think its a bad idea at lynching someone that is facilitating flow of conversation.

Therefore, I vote nay on lynching dwolfe.

I'm honestly really curious what some of the less vocal townsmen have to say. I know I haven't been active either, so I will try more, but peoples postings may uncover some Mafia members... {rubs hands together}

Also, I kind of want the power to kill people with the abacus. Eddie was the only one to learn the secret, but didn't live long enough to tell us these tricks. Aw :[

dtsund
01-26-2010, 11:00 PM
On trial: dwolfe.

AYE (2, 13 required):
Brickroad
PapillonReel


NAY (3, 12 required)
dwolfe
Comb Stranger
demonkoala

vaterite
01-26-2010, 11:03 PM
I'm not sure what to think about dwolfe. I know we've got to kill someone, but I sincerely don't think he'd be THAT obvious, even if he was a mobster trying to be obvious. So I guess I'll vote NAY? It seems like you can't take any actions without arousing suspicion, and the paranoia may kill us. I can't wait until we lynch Papillion Reel tomorrow for seconding the suggestion today. That said, I'm still not sure if it was a good idea not to kill someone on the first day. We lost two folks, and Eddie at least was not mafia. The vigilante couldn't really have known anything, so in all likelihood they're two up on us already.

Comb Stranger
01-26-2010, 11:03 PM
It's not early to be lynching; we're on a strict time limit here. One non-Mafia will die every day, and one more, probably ill-informed kill will almost definitely occur at the hands of the Vigilante. Granted, as the numbers slim, the odds of killing a Mafioso increases, but our ability to secure the vote decreases. The Mafia can swing the public vote in their favor, and assuming the Mafia kill off all the hardliners early on (as Merus seems wont to do), it will be very hard to convince the quiet majority to go through with it.

Once again, we will NEVER be sure of our targets identity, even with the 'supposed' Inspector. Waiting to be absolutely sure won't get us anywhere. While I don't like the prospect of a totally random execution, targeting anyone that suggests a more active attitude is similarly distasteful.

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 11:09 PM
I can't wait until we lynch Papillion Reel tomorrow for seconding the suggestion today.

Why's that? Dwolfe is the most suspicious out of us at this point and we need information desperately. Even if it doesn't end with a lynching, we'll still have learned something from the trial at hand.

Brickroad
01-26-2010, 11:10 PM
Once again, we will NEVER be sure of our targets identity, even with the 'supposed' Inspector. Waiting to be absolutely sure won't get us anywhere.

I've made my peace with the fact that I'll never be able to be absolutely sure. But I still need to be reasonably sure. In dwolfe's case, I am.

dwolfe wanted to kill someone completely at random from the word go, based on absolutely nothing. He's admitted to playing this game before, and he knows a lot of us are first time players. I think he's a mobster who made the early play to put forth what might sound like good strategy to an inexperienced player, but his plan backfired and now he's paying the price.

vaterite
01-26-2010, 11:12 PM
Why's that? Dwolfe is the most suspicious out of us at this point and we need information desperately. Even if it doesn't end with a lynching, we'll still have learned something from the trial at hand.

Sorry dude, I was going for sarcasm.

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 11:15 PM
Sorry dude, I was going for sarcasm.

Oh! Sorry, it's easy to misjudge tone with things as serious as they are. :o In that case yeah, everyone seems to be very twitchy about taking action right now.

Comb Stranger
01-26-2010, 11:19 PM
Also, doesn't Merus' original vote count as an aye?

Rai
01-26-2010, 11:20 PM
I can't say that I trust Brickroad and Merus, but I'm finding it difficult to completely refute their logic either. They make some compelling arguments, and we do eventually have to start doing something eventually.

Likewise, even if he isn't Mafioso, dwolfe has also noted that he isn't one of the roles. This could (and very likely will, if one just looks at the numbers) cost us a civilian. On the other hand, it won't cost us one of the specials immediatly. The odds of others hitting them will go up, but that would happen regardless of what happens.

I guess what I'm trying to say is AYE, distasteful as this whole lynching thing is.

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 11:23 PM
Since I'm probably drawing suspicion from this, for the record: I'm not a mafioso.

To prove it, I invite the vigilante to target me tonight. Hopefully this should help my case and get us some more information at the same time.

Lucas
01-26-2010, 11:29 PM
dwolfe wanted to kill someone completely at random from the word go, based on absolutely nothing. He's admitted to playing this game before, and he knows a lot of us are first time players.

Only you put forth the argument that we should roll the dice and kill someone.

To be fair, this describes me too. I vote NAY.

Comb Stranger
01-26-2010, 11:34 PM
Can we all stop claiming to be citizens? It's not like we can deduce honesty from the tone of our voices. Everyone without a deathwish will claim to be a citizen. "I'm telling the truth, because I'm telling the truth" isn't a good argument.

And we don't learn the ID of vigilante kills, that was just dtsund's flavor text, which didn't actually say either way. If you get capped, we won't learn anything, except that the vigilante is easily impressionable.

DemoWeasel
01-26-2010, 11:38 PM
Put me down for AYE.

Merus
01-26-2010, 11:38 PM
Also, doesn't Merus' original vote count as an aye?

Shouldn't do. In case it does, and my previous statement of my position wasn't noticed, I'm abstaining for now. I want to see as many reasons as I can why dwolfe isn't mafia, to make sure there isn't a convincing alternative explanation for his behaviour other than "he's mafia, and trying to put forward strategies that sound good if you don't think about them too much".

I know that there are variants of the game where the townspeople have to lynch every turn, and vote on who's going to be lynched rather than whether they want to lynch the accused. That rule changes the dynamics of the game a lot. I imagine some of his strategies - like lynching someone at random on the first turn - come from those variants.

PapillonReel
01-26-2010, 11:46 PM
And we don't learn the ID of vigilante kills, that was just dtsund's flavor text, which didn't actually say either way. If you get capped, we won't learn anything, except that the vigilante is easily impressionable.

Actually, the information that'd result might be more important than you think...

Comb Stranger
01-26-2010, 11:55 PM
http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/43/fry.jpg

spineshark
01-27-2010, 12:08 AM
I vote NAY. Out of the most active players so far, he's certainly the most suspicious, but for now I don't think having a contrary voice is the worst thing.

I do think Rai has a strong point though, in that by being upfront about not having powers, he's put himself low on the list of people who would be really bad to kill. I'm just not convinced yet. There's always tomorrow.

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 12:30 AM
Everyone is upfront about not having powers. HAVING POWERS IS A BAD THING. THEY GET YOU KILLED. THAT IS WHY LYING WAS INVENTED.

Merus
01-27-2010, 12:41 AM
Everyone is upfront about not having powers. HAVING POWERS IS A BAD THING. THEY GET YOU KILLED. THAT IS WHY LYING WAS INVENTED.

I'm upfront about my powers: I'm actually a secret role, the Town Blowhard, and I win if I manage to use more words than either the Citizens or the Mafia.

Brickroad
01-27-2010, 12:45 AM
Actually, I just thought of another reason dwolfe might be trying so hard to get himself killed: he's the Miller.

The Miller is a special civilian who has no powers but gives the Investigator a false report. Perhaps dwolfe wants to be killed so as to lessen the level of confusion we poor townsfolk already have to slog through.

Thoughts?

Lucas
01-27-2010, 01:13 AM
The Miller doesn't know he's the Miller, for one thing (unless I've completely misinterpreted the rules).

Brickroad
01-27-2010, 01:20 AM
Herp derp, l2readingcomprehension, Brickroad.

Never mind then, dwolfe is straight-up Mafia. =)

Ruik
01-27-2010, 01:32 AM
Hmm, that brings up something that I'm unsure about. If the miller is killed, does he show up as "Miller" or as "Mafia"?

Paul le Fou
01-27-2010, 01:42 AM
I vote NAY for a day. For what it's worth, I think dwolfe is being a bit suspicious, but I think Merus and Brickroad are makin' an awful lot of noise too. Maybe it's the nature of the game, to fear everyone. Turn us on each other. Maybe I just don't like the cut of their jib. And maybe they're mafia, tryin' just a little too hard to make it look like they ain't mafia. Maybe it's just me, but I ain't lettin' that last bit go, not yet.

Maybe speakin' up like this gets a guy killed. Maybe sayin as much saves my life. Or gets me killed to frame the poor bastards. Who knows, who knows.

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 01:46 AM
The Miller shows up as Mafia, that's the point. If we make use of the Investigator, we have to count on 6 Mafia.

Ruik
01-27-2010, 01:49 AM
Even when dead though? We don't look over the corpse and go "oops, he was just reaching for his cell phone, not a gun."

Merus
01-27-2010, 02:51 AM
I believe that the vigilante and oracle get told what roles people are playing, which includes knowing who the miller is. The investigator only knows if people are 'guilty'.

Ruik
01-27-2010, 03:27 AM
Merus, I think you've been acting even more suspiciously than dwolfe. You've given out several bad ideas on revealing the inspector in ways that are dangerous to him. Are you trying to get him killed? You've been after dwolfe since the first day. You claim it's a mafias job to subtly encourage lynching moments after saying you're in a lynching mood. You then proceed to accuse dwolfe, thus initiating the first lynch vote. You then abstain from voting in it? What, to try to look like less of a hypocrite?

Now, I find dwolfe suspicious too, but I want to see what you have to say before I decide how I'm going to vote.

Merus
01-27-2010, 03:57 AM
Merus, I think you've been acting even more suspiciously than dwolfe. You've given out several bad ideas on revealing the inspector in ways that are dangerous to him. Are you trying to get him killed?

No. Ideally I'd like the inspector to be public and trusted, so the angel can protect them and they can finger mafia to us one by one. We'd be in a very strong position then. If people are uncomfortable with the idea of the inspector being public, I'll stop trying to come up with ways we can expose them without them then becoming a target. I don't know how we get the inspector's information without them revealing that they are the inspector, but I guess they could always be more proactive in accusing.

You've been after dwolfe since the first day. You claim it's a mafias job to subtly encourage lynching moments after saying you're in a lynching mood. You then proceed to accuse dwolfe, thus initiating the first lynch vote. You then abstain from voting in it? What, to try to look like less of a hypocrite?

I've been after dwolfe for the first day because he started throwing around accusations on the first day. I felt Brickroad's reasoning was fair enough, and to call that evidence of him being manipulative felt... wrong. Dwolfe's behaviour further into the game didn't change my opinion. As I said, if Brickroad's mafia then god help us all because he's certainly suckered me into believing him.

My reasoning for accusing dwolfe was, as people have worked out, I find him suspicious. I figured we were going to lynch someone today, it might as well be someone that I think has a decent case to argue. I'm abstaining so I can see that case presented, and also to give the mafia time to come out to either defend one of their own, or for other citizens time to present arguments that demonstrate he isn't behaving with malice.

I note with delight that several people defending him are doing it mostly by accusing me of being mafia. If dwolfe is mafia, then Comb Stranger and yourself probably are as well. I note that dwolfe has also suggested that I'm mafia, and all three of you have given "terrible plans and accusing dwolfe" as the sole reason. I'm not accusing you of hashing out a plan last night, exactly, but if you look at Brickroad and I we've been coming up with different reasons why we're suspicious of dwolfe.

(Not all the nay voters are clearly mafia; for instance, spineshark's been relatively consistent in his/her voting patterns and behaviour.)

As for the point about saying that it's the mafia's job to subtly influence behaviour while I accuse dwolfe: I'm reminding people that none of us can be trusted, and they should look at the evidence. It's all part of my game plan: as much information as possible, even if it's incriminating. On the balance, I feel it'll be more helpful to the citizenry than to the mafia. (Also I'm playing with the idea that everyone thinks I'm mafia. I wouldn't be so obvious if I were, I'm not the bloody Riddler, and I've been making other such jokes in the thread.)

For an example of the sort of subtle manipulation I'm talking about: if Ruik was mafia, note how he agreed with Silent Noise on day 1 that dwolfe is suspicious only after someone else has put forward the idea, and now he's backed off it. This puts him "on the citizen's side", without actually having to make any accusations. When the chips are down, he doesn't agree.

You can see for yourself, it's post #98 in the thread. Look at the evidence; decide for yourselves.

Phantoon
01-27-2010, 04:44 AM
I vote AYE for moving on to nighttime. I mostly just want to see some blood. With my luck I'd just get knocked off right off the bat, being naught but a humble citizen and all, but I gotta gossip with the boys at the factory about something, dig?

This is highly suspicious. Paul cares enough about the game to mention it at work but not enough to post more than twice. And the two times he does it's for early nightfall and to protect dwolfe. Time zones do not explain this.

I accuse Paul le Fou (if I can).

Merus
01-27-2010, 04:54 AM
This is highly suspicious. Paul cares enough about the game to mention it at work but not enough to post more than twice. And the two times he does it's for early nightfall and to protect dwolfe. Time zones do not explain this.

I accuse Paul le Fou (if I can).

Think you're reading too much into flavour text, dude. Also, dwolfe's accusation isn't resolved.

spineshark
01-27-2010, 05:07 AM
(Not all the nay voters are clearly mafia; for instance, spineshark's been relatively consistent in his/her voting patterns and behaviour.)
Aside from the part where I completely reversed my vote on the first day? hahaha
Everyone is upfront about not having powers. HAVING POWERS IS A BAD THING. THEY GET YOU KILLED. THAT IS WHY LYING WAS INVENTED.
He didn't say "don't kill me because I don't have powers," he said "oh well, if I die at least I don't have powers." Which may just be especially tricky, but it's still not the same.
The Miller shows up as Mafia, that's the point. If we make use of the Investigator, we have to count on 6 Mafia.
But the Mafia don't know who it is either (do they get told he's the miller if they kill him?) so they could kill him by accident.

Phantoon
01-27-2010, 05:10 AM
It's more based on how he seems to have laid low and both of his votes seem to be detrimental to the common good.

I vote AYE to dwolfe. Killing people at random was a strange move from someone who professes to know what they're doing.

Merus
01-27-2010, 05:12 AM
Aside from the part where I completely reversed my vote on the first day? hahaha

Yeah, but you've been unsure, testing the waters, waiting for more information and going with the flow. You've been fairly consistent about that.

spineshark
01-27-2010, 05:13 AM
But the Mafia don't know who it is either (do they get told he's the miller if they kill him?) so they could kill him by accident.
Actually what the fuck I don't care about the answer to this question, I need to go to sleep.

Loki
01-27-2010, 05:52 AM
I'm fine with dying myself.

I don't find Brickroad, Merus, or dwolfe's arguments especially convincing one way or the other but saying that you don't care if you die is bizarre. I think you're putting on this self-sacrafical attitude to make us think that you're not only harmless but also willing to go the ultimate distance for the good of the team. Well, I won't be lead astray so easily, mafia guy.

I vote AYE on enforcing mob justice.

Paul le Fou
01-27-2010, 08:24 AM
(My laying low is indeed explained by time zones and also having a job. I can only check the forum once or twice a day and when I do it's a huge endeavor to slog through all the posts because they all happen when I'm asleep instead of bit by bit during active hours.

Also I don't actually know how the fuck this game works so I'm hanging back and not saying much until I pick up more.

And yeah dude, flavor text.

That or maybe I'm a mafioso! It is possible, I suppose, although I doubt my reassurances to the contrary (like this: I'm not mafia) would convince you on their own.

I can kind of see dwolfe's point, although I don't necessarily agree with it. My big problem is that Brick and Merus have spent most of their time debunking it while not offering much in the way of alternatives beyond "let's not kill anyone." Waiting will only last so long before our pool gets too small and our chances of losing a key player to a mafia hit increases. Especially since talking and being active make them easy targets. Of course, if they go too long without dying you have to wonder why the mafia haven't bumped off who is ostensibly their biggest threat...

Still I'd like to see one more day. Also, one thing I'm wondering about is: why Eddie? No one's really been talking about what could be our biggest clue, i.e. the only person the mafia has killed so far. He posted once before dying and the only thing he said was to vote no for a lynching and possibly hint that he was the investigator. Shit, I hope that wasn't it.

Phantoon
01-27-2010, 08:58 AM
Also why not someone more vocal? The Mafia don't need clues as to who the enemy is.

Brickroad
01-27-2010, 09:03 AM
My big problem is that Brick and Merus have spent most of their time debunking it while not offering much in the way of alternatives beyond "let's not kill anyone."

Merus made a formal accusation and I voted to lynch. I hope that clears up any confusion about whether or not we're willing to kill anyone.

Also, one thing I'm wondering about is: why Eddie?

My guess is they wanted to hit someone kind of quiet so as not to disrupt the environment of civilian bickering in which they could thrive. Of the quiet people, one had (all but) claimed to be the Investigator. Eddie was as good as anyone.

(Either that or they decided Eddie's time would be better spent on his FFT LP than this silly Mafia game.)

I personally believe the Investigator is still in play. I don't think he would be stupid enough to reveal himself before he even gets a chance to ply his trade. And if you go back and re-read Eddie's post, he doesn't even make the claim. I think he was just doing a bit of role-playing, and maybe making a colorful Batman reference.

Silent Noise's claim, of course, was just his usual word salad.

dtsund
01-27-2010, 09:26 AM
The "Oops, I Edited My Previous Vote Count Instead Of Posting A New One" vote count:

On trial: dwolfe.

AYE (6, 13 required):
Brickroad
PapillonReel
Rai
Shinji-Fox
Phantoon
Loki


NAY (7, 12 required)
dwolfe
Comb Stranger
demonkoala
vaterite
Lucas
spineshark
Paul le Fou

kaisel
01-27-2010, 10:11 AM
Right now, I'm voting to ABSTAIN since I don't think we have enough evidence one way or another, but here are my thoughts on strategy/lynching:

-dwolfe, I think, is right in one regard, the longer we take to start some lynchings, the harder it becomes for us, as the mafia essentially gets a "free" turn.

-On the other hand, lynching the wrong person is bad, since it robs us of a valuable voting member.

-I do think dwolfe is dangerous one way or another, and the random lynching strategy, coming from someone who's played before seems suspicious to me, although, I haven't played this before, perhaps it's a common win strategy?

I'll need to mull this over some more, but the more I think about it, the more I lean toward Aye, but I'm not entirely convinced yet...

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 10:51 AM
I haven't played before either, but I'd imagine just lynching willy-nilly and hoping to get lucky is a pretty common strategy, especially considering how few people are actively involved in the discussion here. Whether it's a GOOD strategy is of course still debateable, though I stand by that instantly lynching the first guy to suggest it is a bad idea. Dwolfe only gets ONE rebuttal post after being officially accused; saying you're accusing him because he can aptly defend himself is either stupid or intentionally misleading. I'm giving Merus the benefit of the doubt by assuming he's Mafia.

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 11:45 AM
Also, it occurred to me that, based on last night, either Merus, Brick or I are probably going to be targeted by the vigilante, regardless of actual guilt. Given that we may well have a 66% chance of survival, dropped by maybe... 10% based on the Mafia's apparent penchant for targeting the quiet, we should probably get out anything we have to say before nightfall.

Guesty
01-27-2010, 12:42 PM
I neither find dwolfe suspicious nor dumb, though posting that you're a citizen is entirely worthless; it's assumed everyone is pretending to be a citizen.

Merus, on the other hand, has posted very bad ideas at an alarming rate, flip-flopping when called on it. He immediately voted for early nightfall, and now wants to lynch the member most supportive of an active Mafia hunt. By my reckoning, Merus tops the Suspicion Index. Followed, of course, by Alice, who has posted nothing except to prematurely vote for nightfall.

Therefore, I vote NAY to lynching dwolfe.Wait, posting nothing except voting for nightfall is suspicious, how? That's not a good reason to accuse someone at all!

I abstain in regards to dwolfe's lynching for now, although I'll think on the matter some more.
________
Free xxx online (http://www.fucktube.com/)

Guesty
01-27-2010, 12:44 PM
To clarify, what I mean by my first sentence is that I'm a bit confused as to why Comb Stranger is suspicious of Alice, but I'll wait for him to defend himself before accusing him.
________
Pornstars Vid (http://www.fucktube.com/categories/32/pornstars/videos/1)

Lucas
01-27-2010, 12:47 PM
We need less abstentions and more actual votes or this thing will never get resolved. Maybe everyone who's abstaining could just vote NAY instead and we can reaccuse dwolfe later if we really want to?

Guesty
01-27-2010, 12:54 PM
Hm. On some more thought:
If we lynch him, we know his role, thus giving us more information, guaranteed. If mafia kill him, all we know is that he's not mafia. If vigilante kill him, we know nothing.

I kind of doubt he's a special allied role, though, since honestly they'd be more careful of seeming suspicious. Dwolfe's plan of randomly lynching, as Merus pointed out, could strike a key role early in the game (remember, there's only one inspector and one oracle).
________
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kaisel
01-27-2010, 01:00 PM
We need less abstentions and more actual votes or this thing will never get resolved. Maybe everyone who's abstaining could just vote NAY instead and we can reaccuse dwolfe later if we really want to?

Hm. On some more thought:
If we lynch him, we know his role, thus giving us more information, guaranteed. If mafia kill him, all we know is that he's not mafia. If vigilante kill him, we know nothing.

I kind of doubt he's a special allied role, though, since honestly they'd be more careful of seeming suspicious. Dwolfe's plan of randomly lynching, as Merus pointed out, could strike a key role early in the game (remember, there's only one inspector and one oracle).

Putting these two together, the more I think about it, the more I think about it, the more I worry about a key role being taken out, so, barring further arguments, I tentatively vote Aye.

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 01:55 PM
If we lynch him we DO NOT LEARN HIS ROLE. Lynched people are just plain dead, unless the Oracle comes out of the woodwork, miraculously convinces us of their legitimacy, and tells us.

Doing nothing but voting for nightfall is suspicious, because that implies they wanted to proceed directly to Mafia phase, without even a chance to uncover a Mafioso, while drawing as little attention to themselves as possible. No suggestions, postulations, interrogations, just cutting to the killing. Even dwolfe stirred up dialogue before suggesting a lynching; while lynching at random at least has a chance of hitting a mobster, doing nothing is just handing the Mafia free kills. The only legitimate reason to skip to nightfall is friendly fire paranoia, and someone concerned with it would have made some attempt to talk.

Rai
01-27-2010, 02:04 PM
If we lynch him we DO NOT LEARN HIS ROLE.


If there is ever a majority AYE vote, the person on trial is lynched and ejected from the game; his or her role is made publically known. Day ends.


Actually, this is the only way we learn their role for sure. The people who die at night are the mysteries.

spineshark
01-27-2010, 02:07 PM
If there is ever a majority AYE vote, the person on trial is lynched and ejected from the game; his or her role is made publically known. Day ends.

Brickroad
01-27-2010, 02:17 PM
On the subject of information we could learn from a lynching...

A lynching yesterday would have told us practically nothing, even if we had lucked into killing a mobster. We'd get one mobster, but four more remain hidden. A small gain.

A lynching today not only reveals dwolfe to us, but also the motives of his most fervid supporters. Tell us, Comb Stranger, why is it so important to you that dwolfe remain alive?

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 02:43 PM
I'm fighting so hard for dwolfe, not because it's dwolfe, but because Merus is the primary voice for lynching him. Merus voted to out the Inspector with a shoddy plan that would have certainly gotten him killed, voted for early nightfall which is just a bad idea all around, and wanted to abstain from action entirely until "coincidentally" the Mafia met and planned, and on daybreak, he immediately jumped to lynch the only proponent of a particular stratagem. He claims to be accusing dwolfe because, as a verbal member, he can easily defend himself, but by the rules, the accused is immediately silenced after a single post, while we still mount "evidence" against him. By my reckoning, Merus is the most suspicious player at this point, with several strikes against him, so of course I'm going to veto his accusations.

I had intended to counter-accuse Merus after the vote failed, but now knowing that this particular lynching would give us such valuable information (my own loyalties included, for your benefit)... It pains me to say it, but dwolfe might have to be one of the eggs for the omelette, so to speak.

Therefore, I now propose this. I'll vote AYE for lynching dwolfe. If The mob is wrong, and we hang an innocent man, I demand Merus follow him on the gallows; even if he isn't Mafia, he's actively done their work, both today and yesterday, and the good citizenry can't afford incompetence with so many lives on the line. If, however, I am wrong, and dwolfe is Mafia, then I will not blame anyone for executing me next; I will however ask, for our sake, that you leave my fate to the vigilante, so that you might not waste your more informative lynch vote. If the vigilante then fails to kill me, we can only assume that the Mafia already assassinated him, and we glean even further information.

Guesty
01-27-2010, 02:49 PM
Changing my vote to aye for now.
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Guesty
01-27-2010, 02:51 PM
Also, one thing: Comb Stranger, if the vigilante fails to kill you, he may have simply not chosen to kill anyone that day. This doesn't necessarily mean that he's been assassinated.
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Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 02:55 PM
Yes, I call for all the abstaining to vote, so we might at least learn something today; unless this is a horrible tragedy, we'll get one Mafia in two kills, and that's the best we can hope for. As it stands, no vote is a vote for the mob.

Brickroad
01-27-2010, 02:57 PM
Sure, sure, and once Merus is strung up I'm sure to follow. Is that it?

I would hope that the rest of the good people of Talkingtimeville have cool enough heads to go back and read what Merus actually wrote in his posts yesterday and today. The crazed, desperate rants of this cornered man simply do not correlate with reality.

dtsund
01-27-2010, 02:57 PM
On trial: dwolfe.

AYE (10, 13 required):
Brickroad
PapillonReel
Rai
Shinji-Fox
Phantoon
Loki
kaisel
spineshark
Comb Stranger
Guesty


NAY (5, 12 required)
dwolfe
demonkoala
vaterite
Lucas
Paul le Fou

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 02:57 PM
Also, one thing: Comb Stranger, if the vigilante fails to kill you, he may have simply not chosen to kill anyone that day. This doesn't necessarily mean that he's been assassinated.

True, he might hold back to throw off suspicion and wait for a more certain kill, but since he offed Silent Noise the first night, I'm assuming he isn't that calculating.

Guesty
01-27-2010, 03:00 PM
Weren't you saying the opposite thing a few pages ago?

One more thing, though, that I'm concerned about that I brought up that you haven't defended (until you do so, I have reservations about trusting your suggestions):
Followed, of course, by Alice, who has posted nothing except to prematurely vote for nightfall.
Why do you think this is good reasoning? I'm sorry to bring this up again but as I said, I have reservations about trusting you at the moment.
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Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 03:00 PM
Sure, sure, and once Merus is strung up I'm sure to follow. Is that it?

I would hope that the rest of the good people of Talkingtimeville have cool enough heads to go back and read what Merus actually wrote in his posts yesterday and today. The crazed, desperate rants of this cornered man simply do not correlate with reality.

If Merus winds up being Mafia, perhaps. Why so defensive, Brick? You have something to hide? I've little suspicion of you, but once Merus goes, I doubt I'll have a say in the matter; I'm sure I'll be quite dead by then, either by mafia or crazed vigilante.

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 03:07 PM
Weren't you saying the opposite thing a few pages ago?

One more thing, though, that I'm concerned about that I brought up that you haven't defended (until you do so, I have reservations about trusting your suggestions):
Why do you think this is good reasoning? I'm sorry to bring this up again but as I said, I have reservations about trusting you at the moment.

I was saying the opposite, more or less; I didn't realize we would learn the lynchee's role when it was over, and that changes things. Knowing that, and given the amount of heat it's generated, it now seems to me that we could definitely ferret out one Mafioso from the whole fiasco, and mathematically speaking, that's worth one innocent. Ironically, that's part of what dwolfe and Merus were saying in the first place, despite being at each others throats.

As for Alice, I elaborated a few posts up. I find no possible reason for her (singular) action, unless she were Mafia or trigger-happy Vigilante, and there's a 5:1 chance for the former.

Guesty
01-27-2010, 03:09 PM
Oh, nevermind, you answered my question and I didn't notice.

I'm gonna read the entire thread again to review, now.
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Brickroad
01-27-2010, 03:11 PM
If Merus winds up being Mafia, perhaps. Why so defensive, Brick? You have something to hide? I've little suspicion of you, but once Merus goes, I doubt I'll have a say in the matter; I'm sure I'll be quite dead by then, either by mafia or crazed vigilante.

Merus and I have virtually the same strategy and we keep arriving at the same conclusions. It's clear we're up against the same people. Your primary concern with Merus seems to be that he didn't want to lynch anyone yesterday. Guess what? That was my idea. And I stand by it.

Trusting Merus is either going to get me through this nightmare or it's going to see me dead. I have no delusions about my place in this game. If Merus goes to the gallows, whether but there by well-meaning but misled citizens or corrupt Mafia plants, I know I'm sure to follow.

If Merus really is Mafia... then God help us.

Epithet
01-27-2010, 03:13 PM
I suppose I'll vote AYE to lynch dwolfe. Nothing personal, but I can't help but agree with Loki to a degree. Plus if we don't start lynching people we won't get anywhere.

spineshark
01-27-2010, 03:15 PM
AYE (10, 13 required):
spineshark
Err, that wasn't an AYE vote, I was quoting the rules. I'm still on the "don't lynch" side. For now.

Phantoon
01-27-2010, 03:23 PM
If Merus winds up being Mafia, perhaps. Why so defensive, Brick? You have something to hide? I've little suspicion of you, but once Merus goes, I doubt I'll have a say in the matter; I'm sure I'll be quite dead by then, either by mafia or crazed vigilante.

Everyone's going to be defensive if you come out and accuse them.

This is not to say that anyone should trust anyone in this game. There are a lot of very clever metagamers around here. The irony here is I'm beginning to think that dwolfe was right about lynching but for the wrong reason. We quickly removed the threat of anyone getting killed so the Mafia could calmly wait around and have a meeting without any fear of being caught. There was nothing to make anyone panic so we just got interesting stuff but nothing conclusive.

However, that's balanced by killing at random which over the short term is far more likely to hurt us.

My worry is that the Mafia are deliberately targeting the quiet, presumably reasoning that they are quiet because they are special players on the dl. I might be wrong but that seems like a pretty clever thing to do - vocal people are out in the open and therefore easier to keep tabs on. Also if we do the same we risk killing our best hopes of winning.

Guesty
01-27-2010, 03:30 PM
As for Alice, I elaborated a few posts up. I find no possible reason for her (singular) action, unless she were Mafia or trigger-happy Vigilante, and there's a 5:1 chance for the former.She could just not have had much to say, as others have already articulated why they thought abstaining from lynching on the first day was a bad idea and anything she said could have been redundant, or as Phantoon suggested, quiet players could be a special allied role.
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Guesty
01-27-2010, 03:51 PM
Also, for what I said earlier about information, for mafia kills, I'm not sure if the mafia are allowed to kill their own or not (the rules don't disallow it but don't mention it as a possibility either).

Dtsund, can you please clarify?
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Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 03:56 PM
She could just not have had much to say, as others have already articulated why they thought abstaining from lynching on the first day was a bad idea and anything she said could have been redundant, or as Phantoon suggested, quiet players could be a special allied role.

While it is true she may have had other motives, as it stands she has one strike and no mitigating excuses. I'm not asking for a rush execution, merely that she be brought under scrutiny.

Comb Stranger
01-27-2010, 04:00 PM
Also, for what I said earlier about information, for mafia kills, I'm not sure if the mafia are allowed to kill their own or not (the rules don't disallow it but don't mention it as a possibility either).

Dtsund, can you please clarify?

They can, if they wanted to throw off suspicion from two or more seemingly allied players, but since their numbers are so few to begin with, it's not generally a viable strategy. If they appear to whack one of their own, it was probably the Miller.

Umby
01-27-2010, 04:04 PM
Alright, so here's what I see. We don't have many clues that I know of, but people should check the method of killing and all that to see if we have any. Although I don't like killing willy-nilly, we really don't have any leads still other than people were acting very suspiciously.

Unless there's a person who seems more suspicious, I say AYE to lynching Dwolfe. Dwolfe, this is nothing personal, I just think we have no better leads.

Merus
01-27-2010, 04:34 PM
If Merus really is Mafia... then God help us.
8|

...not what I expected.

Anyway, I think we've heard all we're going to. No-one has a decent explanation for dwolfe's behaviour, and most of the dissent is about whether or not I'm mafia. I think it's reasonably compelling that Brickroad and I are saying different things and coming to the same conclusions, but it looks like I'm up on the gallows tomorrow so I'll save my defence for then.

Anyway, lots of information.

I change my vote to AYE.

Merus
01-27-2010, 04:54 PM
Oh wait, AYE is red.

Guesty
01-27-2010, 05:08 PM
I'm curious about one thing (since I'm not that experienced of a player):
What should our gameplan be for either result (dwolfe being guilty or innocent)? We should have a general idea of what to do next to avoid confusion.
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Loki
01-27-2010, 05:39 PM
If we find him guilty: win the game.

If we don't: nominate him again.

Guesty
01-27-2010, 05:50 PM
I meant, if he's dead, how we'll proceed if he dies and turns out innocent.
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Guesty
01-27-2010, 05:52 PM
Or vice versa. As I said I'm not quite the experienced player.
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