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Merus
03-01-2010, 04:47 AM
Sicily, not as long ago as you may think

Ninteen colonists are about to arrive at their new home, a seaside town established by the Sicily Rail Authority. The town has been established to, eventually, provide a home for the Tuscan rail crews the Sicilian government has turned to as they finally connect the far reaches of Sicily to the world. The colonists were recruited from all over Italy, and nearly everyone was excited to be a part of this new society.

Nearly everyone.

The Tuscan crews replaced hundreds of sort-of-hard-working Sicilians, who were nearly all in the pocket of the Cosa Nostra. The Mafia made millions skimming off construction contracts; the Rail Authority's use of outside labor, non-Sicilian labor, disrespected the Mafia and invited others to follow suit in employing non-corrupt crews and ignoring pointed threats and demands for protection money. The Mafia had to send a message, and its message was going to take the form of a fledgling seaside colony, the streets running red with blood.

The train lurches to a sudden stop, two hundred feet from the station; the driver, and five guards, have all been shot, at the same time. There are six among you that wish you harm; six among you that have forced you to lug all your posessions two hundred feet along a dirty trail. Someone will pay.

Players:

Alive

DemoWeasel
Epithet
McDohl
namelessentity (replaced SpecBebop)
Nich
Rai
Red Hedgehog (replaced DarkBlueFlannel)
Torgo
VorpalEdge

Dead
Marion - lynched on day 1, Mafia
dtsund - whacked on night 1
vaterite - lynched on day 2, a Citizen
Phantoon - whacked on night 2
SpoonyGundam - attacked on night 2
Aeonus - whacked on night 3
Byron - lynched on day 4, Mafia
Alpha Werewolf - whacked on night 4
dwolfe - lynched on day 5, Mafia
Loki - lynched on day 6, Mafia

Roles:

6 Mafia
2 Angels
1 Inspector
1 Vigilante
1 Oracle
8 Citizens

Votes:

Day 1 (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=694029&postcount=159)
Day 2 (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=696412&postcount=167) | 1 (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=697670&postcount=254) | 2 (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=698735&postcount=333)
Day 3 | 1 (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=703900&postcount=456) | 2 (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=705729&postcount=481)
Day 4 (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=710425&postcount=545)

Rules:

We start with the day phase. During the day phase, no players may communicate with one another about the game except in this thread. No private messages, no IM, no talking about it in real life (if some players live close enough to one another for this to be possible), nothing but this thread. Discussion in this thread, however, is permitted at any time during the day phase. Editing your posts is forbidden, so everything you say will be a matter of public record.

Additionally, during the day, players may make accusations against other players. To make it clear whether you are doing so, please use the following phrase, bolded:

I accuse Merus.

Accusations are not set in stone once made, and may be changed at any time. Newer accusations supersede older ones.

You may, from day 2 onwards, choose to accuse no-one and move directly to the night phase; you may do so by saying:

I accuse no-one.

You may not move directly to night phase on the first day; tensions are too high.

If a majority of players all accuse the same person, that person has 24 hours to launch a defence, and 24 hours from starting the defence to convince people to change their vote. If, at the end of 24 hours, a majority of players continue to accuse them, they are lynched and ejected from the game (they are allowed a farewell post to wish others well); his or her role is made publically known, and the day ends. After the first day, if a majority of players formally accuse no-one, once 24 hours has passed since the first 'accusation', the day ends and no-one is ejected from the game.

Day will last no less than 24 hours. If a successful vote occurs within 24 hours (either to lynch or to proceed with no lynch), it will not be acted upon until 24 hours have passed. During this time, players may continue posting and change their votes if they want.

In the night phase, it is still against the rules for most players to communicate about the game outside of this thread. Additionally, posting in this thread about the game is forbidden at night. The only exception to the no communication rule is that the Mafia are allowed to communicate in their special Speakeasy, but only at night. They may do this to discuss strategy for the next day as well as decide on who to kill that night.

A summary of each role follows:

Citizen: May discuss in this thread during day; may not do anything at night.

Mafia: As part of your duties to the Cosa Nostra, each night phase, you must target one townsperson for a hit. This, along with all other night-time communication, will be done in your private Speakeasy. Your nominations need not be unanimous, but it must be a majority vote, and there must not be any dissenting votes. After 48 hours, if no consensus is reached, I will choose the name that seems most agreed on. If the hit is successful, Mafia will learn the role of the player targeted. Mafia hits may fail due to the actions of the Angels.

Vigilante: As part of your slightly unhinged revenge plan, each night phase you may nominate, via a PM to me, one player to receive justice via your shotgun. If your action is successful, you will learn the role of your target. Your target may evade justice, and live another day, if an Angel nominates them for protection.

Angel: You have the power of protection; during night phase, you may nominate, via a PM to me, a player to confer your protection on (it may be yourself). That player will be protected from any fatal actions taken by the Mafia or the Vigilante at night. Successful saves will be noted in this thread.

Inspector: As part of your responsibilities to your superiors back in Palermo, each night phase you may nominate one player, via a PM to me, to inspect. If that player is Mafia or the Vigilante, you will receive a guilty verdict. If they are not, you will receive an innocent verdict.

Oracle: Every night phase, you will dream of the deaths that the Mafia and Vigilante visit upon other citizens, and will learn their roles in your dream. Your dreams will arrive via PM at some point towards the end of night phase.

If a role fails to send me a submission within 48 hours, they will not act that night. If they all send me submissions early, night will end early. Once night ends, day will begin again and the game will proceed.

Rai
03-01-2010, 06:29 AM
Man, 200 feet. Do you have any idea how much a typewriter weighs? Too much, I will have you know. I'm starting to think applying for this job was a mistake. I should have gone east....

On the other hand, at least the rail tracer didn't appear.

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 06:50 AM
You'd think they'd at least have the common decency to wait another 200 feet. Some of us are in poor shape from a lifetime of idle videogamery! I'm going to get back at the killers by whining loudly the entire way! That'll teach them!

Loki
03-01-2010, 07:01 AM
I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that those easties are jerks and also they once kicked a puppy. I accuse all of them.

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 08:12 AM
*yawns* I was asleep in my seat, and was rudely awakened by some commotion! What is going on, what is the meaning of this bulletin in the seat pocket:

"The Rules: You may, from day 2 onwards, choose to accuse no-one and move directly to the night phase...day phase lasts at least 24 hours"

Wha...what? There are killers among us and we must pick one to lynch, or the sun will never set? What the hell have I gotten myself into?

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 08:21 AM
There's actually an array of mirrors that deliver sunlight to Sicily regardless of the Earth's rotation. The mechanism for deactivating the array requires a lot of blood. I think one of the engineers was a chucacabra. The good news is we have an infinite supply of people named No-one. The bad news is they won't get here until tomorrow.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 09:04 AM
I don't know about you guys, but where I played we have a random phase. This is the phase of the game where we are generally silly.

I accuse Jack Thompson.

Epithet
03-01-2010, 09:22 AM
Ya wussies, 200 feet ain't even a quarter of a mile. I don't know what you have in that cello case over there, but it can't be that heavy, right?

Kylie
03-01-2010, 09:22 AM
So if we lynch no-one, time will never move forward? Come, my brothers and sisters, and join me in peace and life unending!

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 09:35 AM
I don't know about you guys, but where I played we have a random phase. This is the phase of the game where we are generally silly.

I accuse Jack Thompson.

That's just who I would expect a Mafia trying to deflect suspicion would accuse! I'm on to you!
I accuse Dycedarg's Elder Brother!

Ya wussies, 200 feet ain't even a quarter of a mile. I don't know what you have in that cello case over there, but it can't be that heavy, right?
I'll have you know that this precious heirloom of mine is a solid gold cello in a lead-lined case. My father was a very successful musician and had it commissioned, the cost being so great he had to spend all his savings and sell his old cello to do so. However, when he tried playing it, it sounded awful and his career came to an abrupt end. Turns out there's a reason they're always made of wood.

So if we lynch no-one, time will never move forward? Come, my brothers and sisters, and join me in peace and life unending!
But what kind of life would we lead in this eternal stasis? I say nay, we must face life head-on instead of running away from it! We have a duty to ourselves and the fallen NPCs to bring these killers to justice, no matter if the path to do so is stained with blood! Choose life, and live!

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 09:46 AM
Of course, by "choose life" I mean "start killing people in a paranoid frenzy!"

Marion
03-01-2010, 09:52 AM
Well now, quite a twist you have put on our comfort zones Merus.

Now who is going to make the first move?

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 09:54 AM
I'm afraid YOU ALREADY HAVE.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 10:40 AM
I believe lynching today is the right move anyway. It gives us information - and looking at who "pushed" most, who stayed out, etc. will help regardless of who was lynched.

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 10:43 AM
If anyone's willing to second, we can move forward with his defense and the vote, which is the part I'm interested in seeing.

It doesn't work like that this time around.


Rules:
Additionally, during the day, players may make accusations against other players. [...] If a majority of players all accuse the same person, that person is lynched and ejected from the game

We each cast accusations for someone until someone gets a majority of the accusations. No seconding, no aye/nay voting this time around.

I'm going to assume that a majority means over half the still living players' current accusations are all on the same person.


That said, I'm waiting for more people to show up before throwing any accusations anywhere. A lot of people are probably at work now.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 10:55 AM
I feel like I ought to fill you guys in on some mafia conventions we have where I play.

If somebody is at L-2 or L-1(number represents number of votes until lynch), it is generally accepted that that person will claim - post his role, in his own words.

If you vote for somebody, you damn better post your reason, especially if that somebody has a couple of votes on him.

no-lynch is a sign of scumminess. Why? It ends the day with no information given to the town, and resums with a dead townie or two. Should only be used as part of a plan.

DarkBlueFlannel
03-01-2010, 10:57 AM
Assuming I read it correctly, the day phase will still end after the set time, even if we accuse no one. We just can't vote to end it early. Of course, now that I've said it, everyone will have already picked up on it.

It really takes the pressure off to know that no one has much of anything to go on, yet. Of course, I'm double unprepared because I've never played and haven't finished reading the previous thread.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 11:05 AM
But at this point in the game, no one has any reason to suspect anyone else. I have no reason to accuse you, you were just high up on the player list! Fact is, though, that this day isn't ending until someone's lynched. It might as well be someone, and when I say "someone" I mean "someone other than me."

Plus, about the only way someone can defend themselves today is by claiming a special role, and anyone can claim those since none of the special roles have acted and we can't test anyone's claim to anything until tonight at the earliest.
I was speaking in general. This is still the "random phase".

No-lynch on any day except day 1, yes. On day 1 it is, for reasons outlined at length last game, a bad thing for everyone except the Mafia.
You're saying that it's bad in general here, yet you're arguing? I'm missing something in this post.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 11:09 AM
What I'm asking is this: If you believe no lynch on day 1 is bad for the town and good for the mafia, why would you not lynch on day one?

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 11:19 AM
Which brings me to my point. What exactly is good in no lynch day 1? Let me point out the detractors:

-No information is gained, as I've explained before.
-The mafia get a "free" kill, practically before the game starts.
-We cannot analyze the mafia's kill as well as we could had we lynched, due to the lack of information.

now, the... protractors? What's the opposite of detractor? Well, anyway:

-We won't have the chance to kill a townie day 1.

Honestly? Losing a townie for information at this stage is far better than losing a townie for no information.

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 11:23 AM
The only thing a no-lynch vote really does is stretch out the game and cost us a citizen. We'll just be in the same place the next day, down another citizen. A lynching has at least a chance to hit a mafia; the mafia are guarenteed to hit a citizen.

Unless there's a plan that needs to give the inspector/vigilante/oracle another night, a no-lynch vote is a bad decision.

On day one, even though it's irrelevant this game, it's still useful to sling accusations around and see who sides with who, who's bloodthirsty, etc. Remember, the mafia haven't had a chance to get together and strategize yet. If we wait for them to make plans before we start pressing, we're at a disadvantage.

So you know what? I accuse Alpha Werewolf.

If I've counted right we need ten accusations to lynch someone today.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 11:26 AM
I'm not sure I understand why day 1 lynching is bad for us; It isn't really any more dangerous than a lynch on any subsequent day, no? I followed the last game pretty avidly, and while I understand the reasons behind not wanting to lynch early, I'm not sure it's proof of anything. The whole concept that we'll "accidentally" lynch a power role is odd -- we might out, but not lynch, assuming they defend themselves. And with angels still around and active, they're easy to protect. I guess? Maybe I have the whole concept wrong and I'm just bad at this game.

But I guess it's silly to argue theory, especially since it got an innocent lynched early last game, and we have to lynch today, right?

For the mo, I'll get on the bandwagon with Nich. Alpha Werewolf posted numbers, and I don't trust numbers. L-1 sounds like code to me.

ITALIAN CODE.

...wait, we're ALL italian this game, though, aren't we? Awww, crap.

I accuse Alpha Werewolf.

Rai
03-01-2010, 11:28 AM
Wouldn't it really be advantageous to hold off on votes until everyone has at least one post under their belts? I understand that day doesn't end until tomorrow regardless, but I'd like a few more posts before I really decide who to vote up to the chopping block.

That said, I'm going to have keep these rules in mind, the differences in accusing are already throwing me for a loop.

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 11:31 AM
no items, Final Destination.

Only a dirty bastard of a Mafioso would suggest such things!

Ok, I learned my lesson last game and won't try to be a 'leader', but let's be clear on the rule changes, otherwise Ima gonna let you talk.

1.) Someone must die today by lynching.

2.) Days last no LESS than 24 hours even if someone is voted to be lynched...but does this mean they die instantly, or do we have time to change our votes? This is an important distinction, as the 24 hour time period could give people time to argue their case and survive.

3.) On days 2 through N, should we lynch no-one or pick someone randomly, if we have no leads?

4.) Let's show those Easties how awesome we are by winning first, guys.

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 11:32 AM
This is kind of a useless discussion to begin with. Arguing whether we should lynch or not on day one or whether or not it's a good thing is pretty irrelevant if we are already required to lynch someone by the rules. So, yeah. Let's just move on to the next day already.

I accuse Alpha Werewolf.

Rai
03-01-2010, 11:32 AM
Ah, five Nich. There are five lightsMafioso. The sixth who shows up guilty is the Vigilante, who would have the same information that the citizens do. So it's a 14 in 19 shot, or roughly 74%.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 11:34 AM
Like I said, it was all outlined at length last game, but to sum up the arguments for a day 1 no-lynch:

There are 19 people in this town. 6 of them are Mafia. They can't communicate with each other right now, but my understanding of the rules is that they all know who each other are at this stage, and so 6 votes/accusations (I'm not really sure how to characterize them anymore) are guaranteed to be for non-Mafioso. Of the other 13, each of them, operating on no information, has a 13 in 19 shot at accusing a fellow citizen, or a 68% chance. Those are very bad odds for us. By the morning of the second day, we're guaranteed to be down one citizen unless the angels make a really lucky pick (since they don't have any information yet either); by lynching someone on day 1, we're practically guaranteed to lose two.

As for your "no information is gained" point, well, right now we're not gaining a lot of information even if we do lynch. Like I've said, arguments on day 1 go like this:

"I accuse Alpha Werewolf."

"Well, I'm not a Mafioso."

"Well, I'm not a Mafioso either, and I think you're a Mafioso."

Unless we get incredibly lucky and happen to get consensus for lynching a Mafioso on day 1 (and remember, there are 6 among us who are already going to be swaying the vote against that) the only information we get on day 1 is, oops, the person we just lynched was a citizen. Or worse.

Goes deeper than that. If there is a consensus to lynch, and the lynchee is a townie, the town then looks back and says "hmm, these four guys were really pushing for that lynch with no real evidence". If scum is lynched, the town can look back and say "this guy here was trying to defend this guy way too much".

It's not just easy to see stuff. It's behavioural analysis. Try to figure out what the person who is posting thinks. Why would he post this if he's town? On the other hand, why would scum post this?

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 11:34 AM
There are 19 people in this town. 6 of them are Mafia. They can't communicate with each other right now, but my understanding of the rules is that they all know who each other are at this stage, and so 6 votes/accusations (I'm not really sure how to characterize them anymore) are guaranteed to be for non-Mafioso.

Unless they vote for a mafioso to both pile-on and build their credentials. Or, one of them could see they're already going to die today (we have to lynch) or they could volunteer one of their own to hide.

Marion
03-01-2010, 11:37 AM
SpoonyGundam outlined what I came to say.

I accuse Aplha Werewolf.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 11:37 AM
Actually, I'm unclear on point 2 of Dwolfe's list, as well -- do they get hanged at the end of the 24 hours, or when a majority is reached? I feel less confident about hanging someone who can't even give a defense. THAT would be super-dangerous, and give us basically no info. Giant Human Rights violation, as well.

Not a retraction of my vote, but a worry.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 11:41 AM
This is kind of a useless discussion to begin with. Arguing whether we should lynch or not on day one or whether or not it's a good thing is pretty irrelevant if we are already required to lynch someone by the rules. So, yeah. Let's just move on to the next day already.

I accuse Alpha Werewolf.

Now this is suspicious.

Discussion is NEVER useless. It is the only weapon the town has, apart for praying the Vigilante and Inspector get hits in.
You know who thrives on misinformation, and no discussion? The mafia. The less the town knows, the more confusion there is, the easier it is for the mafia to steal the game.
You know who wants to get days over with? The mafia, because this allows them to plan for the future and get a free kill.

In fact, that post is one of the mos suspicious ones I've seen up until now. I'm keeping an eye on Marion (who basically said "I jump on the wagon") too, but you're my main suspect here.

I accuse SpoonyGundam.

Marion
03-01-2010, 11:48 AM
No, SpoonyGundam is saying this discussion is pointless, I believe that useful discussion is good, however discussing the benefits of an act that might not occur at all right now is worthless, discussing the now and things that are likely to happen is useful, now stop wasting our time on something irrelevent, I also suggest you defend yourself because otherwise in 24 hours you'll be gone.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 11:50 AM
To be fair, I don't think SG was arguing against discussion, just saying that the day-1-lynch-theory discussion was worthless. Which I don't agree with, but he's right in practice -- the rules say we gotta. The lynch motion is just to create discussion.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 11:51 AM
No, SpoonyGundam is saying this discussion is pointless, I believe that useful discussion is good, however discussing the benefits of an act that might not occur at all right now is worthless, discussing the now and things that are likely to happen is useful, now stop wasting our time on something irrelevent, I also suggest you defend yourself because otherwise in 24 hours you'll be gone.

Against what? So far the arguement for lynching me is "let's get this day over with". I believe I've already mentioned that this is a mafia tactic, not a town one. What else can I possibly do, apart for claiming or continuing discussions?

Kylie
03-01-2010, 11:51 AM
...post sniped. Dangit.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 11:53 AM
The argument for lynching you, or for anyone, is to CREATE discussion, not to get rid of a townie. So far, I think it's been pretty revealing. Presumably, it'll only get better.

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 11:55 AM
Now this is suspicious.

Discussion is NEVER useless. It is the only weapon the town has, apart for praying the Vigilante and Inspector get hits in.
You know who thrives on misinformation, and no discussion? The mafia. The less the town knows, the more confusion there is, the easier it is for the mafia to steal the game.
You know who wants to get days over with? The mafia, because this allows them to plan for the future and get a free kill.

In fact, that post is one of the mos suspicious ones I've seen up until now. I'm keeping an eye on Marion (who basically said "I jump on the wagon") too, but you're my main suspect here.

I accuse SpoonyGundam.

That's all well and good, but some discussion can definitely be pretty useless at times.

Discussing motivation behind someones posts is useful. You're trying to do that here, and that's great.

Arguing about whether or not we should do something we already have to do is pretty damn pointless outside of killing time.

Marion
03-01-2010, 11:55 AM
A mafia tactic? the rules require this comes to pass, the game doesn't start untill we see the act of the mafia, the inspector has checked someone and the vigilante has decided weather or not to kill someone, that is when we make decisions.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 11:57 AM
The argument for lynching you, or for anyone, is to CREATE discussion, not to get rid of a townie. So far, I think it's been pretty revealing. Presumably, it'll only get better.

Oh, that's the reason that you, Nich and Aeonus are voting for me, yes. However, that is NOT what I get from SG and Marion. Let me show you the section of SG's post I reffered to:
Let's just move on to the next day already.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 12:00 PM
A mafia tactic? the rules require this comes to pass, the game doesn't start untill we see the act of the mafia, the inspector has checked someone and the vigilante has decided weather or not to kill someone, that is when we make decisions.

This is interesting. Do you say that it would be better if the game started in the night phase? If that's what you're saying, and I hope it isn't, then it's bullshit.

We can NOT rely on the power roles. We HAVE to find the mafia, and this can ONLY be done by discussion. A day without discussion is a wasted day.

Marion
03-01-2010, 12:03 PM
I must have made myself unclear, I agree with Spoonygundam on the basis that that discussion was pointless time killing, I move that we discuss something else, by staying on a worthless subject we are advancing toward night, which you have done, by discussing something worthwhile we obtain knowledge, which I have yet to see you do.

Nich, to change the subject I must say, I've counted over ten posts, a little antsy are we?

McDohl
03-01-2010, 12:05 PM
I don't trust any of you or anything anyone says. But I'm going to observe a bit more and see what happens.

And that's all I have to say about that.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 12:09 PM
Marion, I asked you what you want me to defend against. I would like an answer to that.

Marion
03-01-2010, 12:13 PM
Marion, I asked you what you want me to defend against. I would like an answer to that.

Give us a reason not to lynch you, if you don't then you are going to die.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 12:16 PM
Give us a reason not to lynch you, if you don't then you are going to die.

Lemme get this straight. You are saying that unless somebody presents a better target OR I claim a power role, you are fixated on lynching me.

What.

Marion
03-01-2010, 12:17 PM
Nich what I meant was that we can either waste out time, or we can use it wisely, pointless discussion is like saying, "Hey night phase, come to us we aren't ready but that's fine."

Like AW said discussion is all we can rely on, but we cannot rely on discussion that won't help us.

Marion
03-01-2010, 12:22 PM
Lemme get this straight. You are saying that unless somebody presents a better target OR I claim a power role, you are fixated on lynching me.

What.

Someone has to die, and you are the general choice, I am by no means "fixated" on it but yes unless there is a better option you are the person I accuse.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 12:23 PM
That is, unfortunately, kinda how day 1 is going to have to work. SpoonyGundam may be a better target, but I'm not convinced by your argument that because he thought the discussion on whether or not it was better to do something we weren't even allowed to do by the rules was pointless, he must be a Mafioso.

Never said he was scum. I simply said that lynching just to get the day over with is very much a scummy move. I've seen townies pull very scummy moves - hell, I used to do it myself all the time.

But I'm comfortable with accusing him, because discussing a lynch for actual reasons is bettwe than discussing a lynch just to end the day.

Also, Marion - note how, although you say I'm the general choice, I was picked completely at random.

Marion
03-01-2010, 12:30 PM
Yes, you were picked at random, people agreed that it basically has to happen to someone so why not you? No one else become a better option.

I would say that no one is really suspicious yet, and I hope you realise without saying it that certain people will always have a reason for wanting to move to night outside of being a mafioso.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 12:33 PM
Someone has to die, and you are the general choice, I am by no means "fixated" on it but yes unless there is a better option you are the person I accuse.

You are hounding on him pretty hard, dude. He's been nominated on the first day. This sucks whether or not he's a power role. I am willing to believe that you're just being tactless, but either way you're setting yourself up for some real nasty scrutiny.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 12:34 PM
Yes, you were picked at random, people agreed that it basically has to happen to someone so why not you? No one else become a better option.

I would say that no one is really suspicious yet, and I hope you realise without saying it that certain people will always have a reason for wanting to move to night outside of being a mafioso.
au contrair, my friend. Every single power role wants as much discussion as possible to look back upon. This gives the Investigator and Vigilante a better chance to hit, the Angels a better chance to protect a power role, etc.

Mafia, now, would die for a chance to get to night. Especially during day 1, because they haven't formulated a strategy amongst themselves yet.

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 12:36 PM
Seriously, AW? That's what you're hung up on?

The day lasts another what? 16 hours, minimum? Even if everyone else in the game voted for you, that wouldn't change, and people wouldn't stop talking during that time. Either I was being flippant when I said we should get it over with, or I have the most ineffective strategy ever to cease discussion entirely and move to night phase.

Did I vote to lynch you just because others had? Yes! Are we still getting information even though I apparently want to end the day as soon as possible? Yes!

Even if I wanted to, I couldn't completely stop discussion from going on in this game. Nobody could.

Marion
03-01-2010, 12:45 PM
I personally dislike this rule, it essentially translates to "We don't want to lynch you but we have to anyway so you don't get to play just because" Trust me I would not go after him if he wasn't going after me, but since this rule is in effect and he was chosen at random, then he should not waste his time talking about why not lynching is bad!

Finally we gain more knowledge from lynching then anything else, and someone needs to be lynched, if you want to pick another person at random fine, but I suggest if you do this pick from a list of people who played in the last game.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 12:48 PM
I personally dislike this rule, it essentially translates to "We don't want to lynch you but we have to anyway so you don't get to play just because" Trust me I would not go after him if he wasn't going after me, but since this rule is in effect and he was chosen at random, then he should not waste his time talking about why not lynching is bad!

Finally we gain more knowledge from lynching then anything else, and someone needs to be lynched, if you want to pick another person at random fine, but I suggest if you do this pick from a list of people who played in the last game.

Well, right now I'm waiting for the other people who are playing to show up. I am going to sleep soon, but regardless, this conversation pretty much ended itself. We're going in circles.

And how am I going after you? I said I'm keeping an eye on you. I haven't found reason to accuse you. Though you are getting there.

Marion
03-01-2010, 12:48 PM
au contrair, my friend. Every single power role wants as much discussion as possible to look back upon. This gives the Investigator and Vigilante a better chance to hit, the Angels a better chance to protect a power role, etc.

Mafia, now, would die for a chance to get to night. Especially during day 1, because they haven't formulated a strategy amongst themselves yet.

You said it when I told you not to. Please realise that there are people who have never played before and if they get a toy, then they probably want to use it as soon as possible, your reasoningg also does not cover the oracle.

Phantoon
03-01-2010, 12:49 PM
Wow, thread's really got started. It's right, we need to discuss reasons to lynch particular people but not whether lynching itself is good on the first day. The avenue of voting for night is closed to us this time.
I still think that it'd be better to end the day without a lynch due to the high chance of shooting ourselves in the foot (>50%), and killing a townsperson this early gives no real other useful information (we got nothing from dwolfe's unfortunate demise on day 2 last time and we had information behind that). That's not an option this time though, so I'm going to hold on a couple of hours and see if we get anything to go on.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 12:51 PM
You said it when I told you not to. Please realise that there are people who have never played before and if they get a toy, then they probably want to use it as soon as possible, your reasoningg also does not cover the oracle.

Okay, what? I'm not understanding you here. As for the Oracle, whether there is more or less discussion doesn't change his actions one bit...

Rai
03-01-2010, 12:55 PM
Finally we gain more knowledge from lynching then anything else, and someone needs to be lynched, if you want to pick another person at random fine, but I suggest if you do this pick from a list of people who played in the last game.

I actually don't think this is a terrible idea, the picking people who played last game, even if it puts me at a higher chance on the chopping block.

That said, of the group here, only seven of us played last game. One of whom (dwolfe) was lynched on Day 2. Ultimately, bringing the list down to people who played last time removes over half of the suspects from the equation. Even if we're choosing at random, those aren't great odds to hit anything. I do know who I'd vote for out of the list, but I'm holding off until everyone's posted at least once before making any meaningful move.

VorpalEdge
03-01-2010, 12:56 PM
You said it when I told you not to.

... and you didn't say it?

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 12:59 PM
but I suggest if you do this pick from a list of people who played in the last game.

Wait, why do you suggest that? Is it because they've already gotten a shot at the game and you'd feel sorry for someone if they got offed early on when they haven't played it before?

I'm going to be perfectly honest here, to the citizens and power roles and mafia. Even if that wasn't your reasoning behind suggesting that, don't do this. Yes, it sucks for whoever it is that dies on the first day, but limiting your targets based on playtime is crippling yourself. Roles were not assigned based on experience, and not looking at the new guys as well is doing it wrong. I don't want to play against someone who isn't playing to the best of their ability, and if you limit yourself like this (Or are limiting yourself some other way, like how the mafia in the previous game left Brick and Merus alive because they thought interest would die if they killed them), you can't be playing as best you can.

Phantoon
03-01-2010, 01:01 PM
Why kill people who played last game? I may be being a little slow here but there's absolutely no greater chance of them being Mafioso and they actually have some experience under their belt. This sounds almost like "kill people other than me".

Marion
03-01-2010, 01:01 PM
Okay, what? I'm not understanding you here. As for the Oracle, whether there is more or less discussion doesn't change his actions one bit...

I'm saying that he might want to end the day as soon as possible so he can recieve his benefits and that your reasoning does not cover this fact.

I didn't outuright say it Vorpel.

DarkBlueFlannel
03-01-2010, 01:04 PM
Alpha Werewolf's general lack of concern about potentially being axed on the first day, to my mind, either says he's a civilian and just self-sacrificing or he doesn't actually believe a kill vote will go through. (The latter is likely considering people have said they're just going along to get discussion.)

I think, in order to get the best attempt at a defense from someone we really have to put the stress of a potential hanging on their mind and vote unanimously.

Although, I've said the above, I'm going to defer adding my vote as Alpha has said he'll be hitting the hay soon and isn't likely to defend himself at all.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 01:07 PM
Alpha Werewolf's general lack of concern about potentially being axed on the first day, to my mind, either says he's a civilian and just self-sacrificing or he doesn't actually believe a kill vote will go through. (The latter is likely considering people have said they're just going along to get discussion.)

I think, in order to get the best attempt at a defense from someone we really have to put the stress of a potential hanging on their mind and vote unanimously.

Although, I've said the above, I'm going to defer adding my vote as Alpha has said he'll be hitting the hay soon and isn't likely to defend himself at all.
Consider this: I have nothing to defend against. All I can do is discuss and point fingers.

Now I will go to sleep. I will see you all tommorow.

VorpalEdge
03-01-2010, 01:08 PM
I didn't outuright say it Vorpel.

You didn't have to. "Oh hmm why would certain people... oh! I know"

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 01:09 PM
I'm saying that he might want to end the day as soon as possible so he can recieve his benefits and that your reasoning does not cover this fact.

I didn't outuright say it Vorpel.

If you're talking about the Oracle, that's bull. If you're talking about the Inspector or Vigilante, it is strictly better for them to have more information. I don't think any of out players wants to shoot just for the hell of it.

Lynching only players who played in the previous game is stupid.

DarkBlueFlannel
03-01-2010, 01:10 PM
As an addendum to my previous post. There is the potential, however minimal, if one is a mafia member, that others will come to his or her defense.

Marion
03-01-2010, 01:13 PM
The idea is based from the other thread to pick from a list of people who have played already, I'm rather happy this was turned down, it makes everything more interesting if we don't do this, by the way, I wasn't excluding myself, I've played this game before, that would put me on the list.

Nich by clumping me and SG together then going after SG he is discretely pointing the finger at me, I also see a flaw in his logic, which is the reason I doubt him.

Now for my defense lynching someone at random on the first day when a lynch is required is a good idea, when this person points a finger at someone else and then clumps them with someone else, that person is doing fine if the logic is sound, I have not found his logic sound, and he clumps me together, by accusing me you are doing as he wishes, he is quitly trying to usurp control while using someone else, this is an advanced tactic used commonly, which makes him a danger if it is picked up on, I honestly believe we should stay on the privious course on the notion that we will have gained more knowledge, now I know you wouldn't know this since I'm fairly new but I am a defensive person, my father is an attourney and I picked up a lot from him, if I seem overly defensive this is fairly normal for me though I am trying to break the habit of it.

Marion
03-01-2010, 01:18 PM
Addemum, if you think I'm a mafia going to Spoony's defense, then off him, if you disagree with the idea of doing this at random, see above, if you think we need more information choose at random, and get information from discussion, lynching and tomorrow.

Epithet
03-01-2010, 01:20 PM
Hmm, so far we have two lynch accusations on the table: Alpha Werewolf and SpoonyGundam. If I were to consider the merits of lynching them, I would probably go with Alpha Werewolf, since we're farther along with lynching him and I can see how a non-mafia poster could make SpoonyGundam's "incriminating" comment. I think I'll hold off on accusing for now, and see what happens.

One thought I had is that someone who makes strong attempts at self-preservation could be mafia or a special role. Of course, even if someone claims to be a special role, there are roles like Inspector and Oracle where it would be highly difficult to confirm such a claim.

Marion
03-01-2010, 01:21 PM
Like I said from before, I'm a defensive person, a general stratagy is setting up a good defense, I see no problems with being defensive about your reasoning and the reasoning of others.

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 01:22 PM
Wait, what? If we think you're a mafia, I should get killed?

What?

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 01:23 PM
Nich by clumping me and SG together then going after SG he is discretely pointing the finger at me, I also see a flaw in his logic, which is the reason I doubt him.

He didn't have to clump you two together, you did it yourself;
SpoonyGundam outlined what I came to say.

I accuse Aplha Werewolf.

He accused Spoony based on what Spoony posted; if you explicitly agreed then his logic obviously applies to you as well.

Marion
03-01-2010, 01:26 PM
I'm so godamn sick of ninja'd plus no edits, and again as I said before, my suggestion did not include me, I've played before, not here but I have before, and by the way, I just stole the idea from Brickroad from the east thread.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 01:26 PM
Given that I've basically condemned Marion's almost-ad-hominem attacks already, and that I have no real reason besides impetus to accuse AlphaWere, I retract my accusation of AlphaWerewolf

and

I accuse Marion.

Your posts have been terse, generally accusatory, difficult to read, and contain almost no points that I can decipher as useful to our info-gathering strategy. Your defense ("This is an advanced tactic used commonly") begs the question, and ad-hominem attacks and defenses (my father is an attorney) only cloud waters and create confusion. They don't help intelligent citizens, they confuse already-puzzled citizens, and they can only benefit mafiosi. You want the day over fast, and plenty of players are probably still at work and haven't even checked the thread. If you're a citizen, then I don't understand what your actual goal is, and I don't think you're helping us. If you're a mafiosi, that's one down. Either way, I won't mourn too much.

Marion
03-01-2010, 01:30 PM
Wait, what? If we think you're a mafia, I should get killed?

What?

I'm just messing with you, if someone is accused of defending someone else because they are both mafia then usally done, I'm no fan of it but I just wanted to see your reaction.

He didn't have to clump you two together, you did it yourself;


He accused Spoony based on what Spoony posted; if you explicitly agreed then his logic obviously applies to you as well.

He accused Spoony on the basis of wanting to move to night already, I was agreeing with him in that post to say what the discussion was about being pointless at the time.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 01:31 PM
Moreover, in light of Nich's vaguely meta-gamy referral to Silent Noise's expression of Marion's expertise, and Marion's name-dropping of Brickroad in the East thread, I strongly, strongly suggest that players in West refrain from reading the East thread, as well as the General thread. Seriously, we have enough to do just keeping THIS thread in check without venturing into some dangerous metagame territory.

Phantoon
03-01-2010, 01:33 PM
Yeah, we don't need no stinkin' Easties.

DarkBlueFlannel
03-01-2010, 01:38 PM
I think, I agree with Nich and Byron.

I accuse Marion, as well.

Marion
03-01-2010, 01:40 PM
Given that I've basically condemned Marion's almost-ad-hominem attacks already, and that I have no real reason besides impetus to accuse AlphaWere, I retract my accusation of AlphaWerewolf

and

I accuse Marion.

Your posts have been terse, generally accusatory, difficult to read, and contain almost no points that I can decipher as useful to our info-gathering strategy. Your defense ("This is an advanced tactic used commonly") begs the question, and ad-hominem attacks and defenses (my father is an attorney) only cloud waters and create confusion. They don't help intelligent citizens, they confuse already-puzzled citizens, and they can only benefit mafiosi. You want the day over fast, and plenty of players are probably still at work and haven't even checked the thread. If you're a citizen, then I don't understand what your actual goal is, and I don't think you're helping us. If you're a mafiosi, that's one down. Either way, I won't mourn too much.

The game is based around accusations. I do not want the day over fast, I want a clear target. I was outlining a character flaw of mine, stating the fact that this is normal for me. I'm simply trying to stir up discussion, so that we may gain more knowledge. As a citizen my goal is to win, if you don't think that's fine but you are wrong.

Not true. Your exact words were "I suggest if you do this pick from a list of people who played in the last game." You did not play in the last game, ergo you're setting yourself up as immune to lynching today. I, on the other hand, think you should be lynched with all due speed.

Then I did not word it correctly, but I have no way of proving this so go ahead.

I accuse Myself. this is the only way I can prove for sure what I am.

Phantoon
03-01-2010, 01:41 PM
I agree with Nich.

I accuse Marion.

He's suspicious as hell and I have a horrible feeling that the direction he's trying to move us in is dangerous to the common good.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 01:43 PM
I didn't mean for the metagame post to sound accusatory -- I, too, remember SN's compliments with regards to Marion, and I really wish I didn't, because it's completely coloring my interpretation of his posts. I just want to head off any further metagame knowledge on my part -- I think it'll make for a more interesting, relevant game for everyone if we all share the same knowledge.

In accordance, Marion, please explain what you meant when you refer to Brickroad's East Game strategy. I haven't read the game, and don't intend to. You clearly intend to defend yourself, though, so I'd like to see a defense with meaningful content in it.

Phantoon
03-01-2010, 01:43 PM
I accuse Myself. this is the only way I can prove for sure what I am.

This game's moving way faster than game 1 already. I think I'll be exhausted by day three (assuming I've not died of course).

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 01:44 PM
I will admit that I jumped over to the east thread for a second to see Brickroad's posts after Marion claimed he stole the idea, since I thought it was an unusually bad idea for Brick to have as Marion presented it. He didn't actually steal the idea right, though. Brick's argument was (Spoiler'd for the meta-game allergic) that they should lynch someone that they know will be mostly useless if left alive, and the only way they'd know that on day one is if that person played the game before.

The lack of reading comprehension there, combined with some peculiar arguments that involved throwing me under a bus for some reason is good enough for me to change my vote.

I accuse Marion.

VorpalEdge
03-01-2010, 02:17 PM
I accuse Marion.

We need to get rid of somebody and his posts are hard to read. Seriously, use some fucking periods. It's like reading a stream of consciousness. Normally I wouldn't care much but this game requires clarity.

I'm just messing with you, if someone is accused of defending someone else because they are both mafia then usally done, I'm no fan of it but I just wanted to see your reaction.

Like this, for example. I can kinda make out what you're trying to say, based on context, but damn. "if someone is accused of defending someone else ... then usually done." WTF does that even mean?

Also, by making this post I get to be elitist, so that's a giant plus. :)

SpecBebop
03-01-2010, 02:20 PM
Umm... Hi guys. This thread is moving incredibly fast.

Having read over the thread though, I can't get over post #84 by Marion, and it seems like the consensus is to string him up.

I accuse Marion.

SpecBebop
03-01-2010, 02:22 PM
Also, while I won't venture over into East, I am willing to look at the number of posts in both threads.

I think by that metric we're winning.

Epithet
03-01-2010, 02:28 PM
Yeah, post #84 is too weird, and Marion has been tossing around some pretty bad ideas. Plus his posts are written in an annoying fashion.

Since the general consensus (backed up with some sound logic) seems to be to go for him, I accuse Marion.

dtsund
03-01-2010, 02:32 PM
Umm... Hi guys. This thread is moving incredibly fast.

This.

Regarding my opinions, I feel as though SpoonyGundam's actually, in a curious way, more suspicious than Marion. From what I've seen in past games (including the one I ran!) is that the game's scum generally tries to speed along lynches that aren't of their own, but do so in a way that doesn't seem too aggressive. SpoonyGundam's accusation kind of strikes me a bit that way, particularly his arguments afterward (seriously, if you're innocent, you shouldn't care that much who gets killed beyond 'not me', when it's all random).

Having said that, if SpoonyGundam's Mafia, I think there's a pretty good chance Marion's mob too. Since he's going to be more easily lynched at this point, I accuse Marion.

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 02:34 PM
*thoughts are posted AS I read the thread, not after catching up*

Yeah, it really is academic, but the rules clearly state that "Day will last no less than 24 hours. If a successful vote occurs within 24 hours (either to lynch or to proceed with no lynch), it will not be acted upon until 24 hours have passed." So we gotta pass the time talking about something until Alpha Werewolf is or isn't strung up.

I had read right over that in the rules, thanks Nich. Only by understanding the game can we win this.

Give us a reason not to lynch you, if you don't then you are going to die.

What reason can anyone give? If someone says "hey I'm a citizen" why the heck would you believe them?!

Lemme get this straight. You are saying that unless somebody presents a better target OR I claim a power role, you are fixated on lynching me.

Exactly, AW. I don't see how anyone can give a rational defense :(. When I honestly admitted I was both good and a Citizen, it sealed my death rather than exonerating me last time. If someone can explain what would be an adequate defense, Bueller, Bueller...anyone?

if you want to pick another person at random fine, but I suggest if you do this pick from a list of people who played in the last game.

Hey, if you want to put me in the suspicious pile, you're my enemy!

Given that Marion is going to an awful lot of trouble to defend himself against accusations no one's making--first demanding that AW stop picking on him, then insisting that our random lynching choice be from a pool that conveniently excludes him--I'm changing my mind. I accuse Marion.

There, now you've got a justified reason to feel persecuted.

The idea is based from the other thread to pick from a list of people who have played already...*words*

Don't read the other GOD DAMN GAME, play your own game. This is reason enough for me to vote, bud. It's not like you even made any sense.

Everyone else: PLEASE do not read the other game from now on. After the fact, we get to read the other thread for our amusement. If you metagame it like this, it really ruins part of the fun.

I accuse Marion with one caveat: If you do think you'll die, please post a short, clear list of who you think might be good or bad. If you are proved to be a Citizen, at least we know you aren't lying (although you might still be wrong).

I'll see you cats on day 2.

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 02:35 PM
I accuse Marion *stupid Italics vs Bold*

dtsund
03-01-2010, 02:36 PM
I accuse Marion with one caveat: If you do think you'll die, please post a short, clear list of who you think might be good or bad. If you are proved to be a Citizen, at least we know you aren't lying (although you might still be wrong).

I endorse this idea.

SpecBebop
03-01-2010, 02:56 PM
I accuse Marion *stupid Italics vs Bold*

Bold: Nothing's better!

Phantoon
03-01-2010, 03:14 PM
Bold: Nothing's better!

Are you sure?

Rai
03-01-2010, 03:14 PM
Yeah, ok, I had a big long post here, but then Chrome decided to crash. tl;dr: Marion has enough votes to be lynched (I'm also voting for his lynch due to bad strategies and incoherent posts), so I'm wondering what the rest of the 13 hours for today should be spent doing. It's a bit early in the game for lolcats and lasagna recipes, what's the next move? Putting together a digest on players who have already voted?

DemoWeasel
03-01-2010, 03:22 PM
Good lord, people, FOUR PAGES?!

SpecBebop
03-01-2010, 03:24 PM
Good lord, people, FOUR PAGES?!

Welcome to the party, Shinji!

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 03:25 PM
I accuse Marion with one caveat: If you do think you'll die, please post a short, clear list of who you think might be good or bad. If you are proved to be a Citizen, at least we know you aren't lying (although you might still be wrong).


That is a good idea.


What's not a good idea is unanimity at this stage in the game. We agree he's mafia, so let's lynch him tomorrow and continue to gather info for today. We're only halfway through the minimum day length and it's not even prime time yet (assuming a play time zone distribution representative of Talking Time as a whole)!

I can't decide who to accuse in his place, though. Give me a bit.

It's a bit early in the game for lolcats and lasagna recipes, what's the next move? Putting together a digest on players who have already voted?
We can argue whether a day 1 lynching (when voluntary instead of mandatory) is a good idea for the citizens or not.

SpecBebop
03-01-2010, 03:35 PM
We can argue whether a day 1 lynching (when voluntary instead of mandatory) is a good idea for the citizens or not.

Arguing won't change the reality of the situation, so it won't really further anything. Someone needs to be lynched, and spending our discussion debating the merits of the rules instead of trying to figure out who is mafia would be spinning our wheels.

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 03:37 PM
I don't think there's honestly a good reason to leave a mafia alive, but I don't really know I could call him a mafia in light of the trolling thing.

If what Silent Noise says is true, he could also easily be a power role trying to draw suspicion on himself to get lynched.

Arguing won't change the reality of the situation, so it won't really further anything. Someone needs to be lynched, and spending our discussion debating the merits of the rules instead of trying to figure out who is mafia would be spinning our wheels.

I think he was making a joke.

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 03:42 PM
If what Silent Noise says is true, he could also easily be a power role trying to draw suspicion on himself to get lynched.



I think he was making a joke.

I don't know if this whole silent noise/marion thing is heinous metagaming or not, so I'm going to ignore it. I don't see any other options at this point. *only stopped by to see if the PS3 bug was fixed, carry on*

Wait...sh*t!

If Marion's the Inspector and gets lynched on day one due to being a troll, I'd be open for a reroll. But seriously, joining our awesome TT forum just to troll? Seriously? Seriously? Secret Worst Troll!

Phantoon
03-01-2010, 03:46 PM
Hi Shinji!

I think we have to lynch Marion regardless of what he is - if he's the Inspector he'd be next to useless anyway. There's not a high chance of that happening so I think we have to go with it. If he's Mafia then we've got a good scalp early on.

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 03:47 PM
Oh man, I'd vote "no" to a reroll so hard if I was a mafia.

But I guess I'm kind of biased, since I don't think I've played a game of Mafia where the investigator didn't die somehow within the first two or three days.

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 03:48 PM
Hrm. I'm not sure I agree with your logic entirely. I do see the value in trying to get further information today, but if we're agreed Marion is a Mafioso, it's best we lynch him today. The mafia has one less member, no theoretical citizens' lives are in danger, and if he does turn out to be a dirty rat, we'll know that going into tomorrow so we can better plan our day 2 lynching.

I dunno, if there's value in keeping a known or at least highly suspected Mafioso alive, I'm open to hearing your reasoning behind it.
What benefit does the mafia have from having 6 members instead of 5, especially if we're all certain that that 6th member is in fact mafia? They still only get exactly one kill at night. We can ignore anything that member says, and his vote isn't enough to swing any lynching. It's perfectly safe to leave him alone for today. And what information do we get from his death today that we could use tomorrow over the information we'd get from lynching anyone?
If we leave things as they are now, we end with the info we have now. If we go after someone else right now, we still have the info we have now, plus more.

Arguing won't change the reality of the situation, so it won't really further anything. Someone needs to be lynched, and spending our discussion debating the merits of the rules instead of trying to figure out who is mafia would be spinning our wheels.
It was a joke.

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 03:51 PM
Of course it strikes me that if we take my logic and stretch it out ad absurdum we end up spending months on day one accusing people in turn, over and over. So I'm not super attached to the idea.

SpecBebop
03-01-2010, 03:52 PM
I fail at the internet.

Phantoon
03-01-2010, 03:52 PM
If we leave things as they are now, we end with the info we have now.

The only info I have on Marion is that he's suspicious and his syntax makes my eyes bleed. Killing him will confirm or deny his Mafianess. Keeping him alive will do nothing - he's temp banned so we'll get nothing more out of him and no-one else seems particularly worth killing right now.

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 03:54 PM
I secretly hope we lynch Marion and Mafia East lynches Silent Noise on day one. Anyone else?

Let's start sharing recipes, guys. I think we've made it clear who deserves death today...

Seriously, this stuff is delicious! Apologies for the non-metric measurements.

Pumpkin Mafia Game Bread

3.5 c. white flour
3 c. sugar
1 t. cinnamon
1 t. nutmeg
1.5 t. salt
2 t. soda
4 eggs
1 c. oil
2 c. canned pumpkin (large can)

Mix dry ingredients, then add all wet ingredients and mix thoroughly. Pour into TWO greased and floured bread pans, and bake at 350F for 60-70 minutes.

DarkBlueFlannel
03-01-2010, 03:56 PM
As I see it, we can either kill him and move on or give his role to another person, "soft reset" the game, and ignore the first four pages of this thread. I'm in favor of either.

SpoonyGundam
03-01-2010, 03:58 PM
We could go after someone else to see their defense and try to draw out new information, but we'll eventually have to confirm the information either through lynching or investigating. And I don't think we want the investigator to come out this early.

We can't just set Marion, or anyone else under suspicion, aside because we're absolutely sure he's mafia. We aren't even close to absolutely sure, and we might as well confirm it now rather than later. At worst, we'll lose a player that isn't really contributing much to begin with.

Or, yeah, what Nich said.

McDohl
03-01-2010, 03:59 PM
Hrm. I'm not sure I agree with your logic entirely. I do see the value in trying to get further information today, but if we're agreed Marion is a Mafioso, it's best we lynch him today. The mafia has one less member, no theoretical citizens' lives are in danger, and if he does turn out to be a dirty rat, we'll know that going into tomorrow so we can better plan our day 2 lynching.

I dunno, if there's value in keeping a known or at least highly suspected Mafioso alive, I'm open to hearing your reasoning behind it.

The only thing I can think of keeping a known mafioso alive is that, the more you eliminate, the easier a majority vote becomes for the Mafia. While sniping him off is probably a good idea, if the hints as to who the angel et.al. are become more obvious, the mafia will be more swift in eliminating who they perceive to be as their competition.

I don't know how I feel about that, since it seems like that's inevitable anyway. Additionally, since we're all pretty sure he is a mafioso, it becomes that much easier for us to get a victory while subsequently making it harder for them, since the mafia has moved down from six to five.

I'm inclined to take advantage of that.

edit

Wow, I didn't realize that Marion was a fake. I was wondering what was going on. Ignore everything I said. :/

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 04:00 PM
Information about how other people are voting and coming to decisions is what's important. It seems to be unanimous that we want him out of our game. If he's mafia, great, we still end up with a dead mafia if we lynch him tomorrow. That doesn't tell us anything about anyone else, because everyone voted him out. Uh, except me I guess. Which I guess reflects badly on me!

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 04:04 PM
The only thing I can think of keeping a known mafioso alive is that, the more you eliminate, the easier a majority vote becomes for the Mafia.

Dude, what'cha smoking? If the mafia ever get a majority vote, they already won!

I'm too addicted to this thread, damn it. I'll probably bite it on day 2 again as a result.

Aeonus
03-01-2010, 04:06 PM
Gah it doesn't even matter does it? Discussion A today and Discussion B tomorrow, versus Discussion B today and Discussion A tomorrow. Same damn difference, let's just off the jerk now and move on.

I accuse Morion

McDohl
03-01-2010, 04:06 PM
Dude, what'cha smoking? If the mafia ever get a majority vote, they already won!

I'm too addicted to this thread, damn it. I'll probably bite it on day 2 again as a result.

Majority vote within their own group. In a group of six, it means that you have to convince four people to eliminate somebody. In a group of five, you only have to convince three.

It's not a good argument, but that's what will happen.

dwolfe
03-01-2010, 04:15 PM
[strike]edit

No Edits For You! Or Anyone!

McDohl
03-01-2010, 04:21 PM
No Edits For You! Or Anyone!

-stare-

Huh? I kept everything in my post...

Rai
03-01-2010, 04:22 PM
Yeah, but there's no real way to make sure that everything was kept in. It's just easiest to outlaw editing altogether, even if it means double posts will happen.

Kylie
03-01-2010, 04:25 PM
The ban on edits is to make sure that nobody goes back and ninja edits the text, even if the text was retained. On principle, mostly.

I'm all for carrying forward today. If he was the inspector, I don't think anybody will object to a do-over (though honestly if he were, our game would have been straight-up doomed to mafia take-over). But if he's just a townie, or mafia, nothing is lost by lynching him and moving on.

McDohl
03-01-2010, 04:28 PM
Yeah, sorry. Didn't know that. Wasn't ever written anywhere in the rules.

I kept the text anyway. So y'all can bite me. :P

vaterite
03-01-2010, 05:20 PM
Reading through the thread, I wanted to accuse Marion too, but now that everyone else is doing it, that just seems boring.

Although it occurs to me that if he were really a member of the mafia then he'd be a made Marion.

So, have we learned anything yet today? Other than there's some shady business I don't understand that involves being banned.

I still think Nich is suspicious, but hell you guys are all suspicious. Especially you Epithet. I feel like in another life you killed some dudes.

Merus
03-01-2010, 06:42 PM
Yeah, sorry. Didn't know that. Wasn't ever written anywhere in the rules.

It actually is:

Editing your posts is forbidden, so everything you say will be a matter of public record.

McDohl
03-01-2010, 07:11 PM
It actually is:

You edited that post! I'm kidding.

Since we're going to resolve things within game, then I accuse Marion.

Loki
03-01-2010, 07:17 PM
Wooaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh-k. When I last checked this thread it was barely on page 2. I just finished the rest of it and it seems pretty clear that Marion is a terrible player and clearly Silent Noise.

I accuse Marion. I don't care if he's inspector. Let's get this crap out of our game.

vaterite
03-01-2010, 07:30 PM
I accuse Marion

I forgot to make this with official bold text before.

Alpha Werewolf
03-01-2010, 10:11 PM
I don't see a reason to accuse Marion again.

However, regarding Aeonus' "we can lynch him tommorow" strategy: It's a good idea, but only when we have some leads. We don't, so there's no point in waiting.

Actually, maybe we can get an unanimous vote for him. He's voting for himself, isn't he?

I accuse Marion

Kylie
03-01-2010, 10:27 PM
I am sad that it has railroaded this game. I am sad that I am involved in the drama. I can only hope at least that the lynching process will be cathartic.

DemoWeasel
03-01-2010, 11:39 PM
I accuse Marion because I really don't want to deal with having to play this game with someone intentionally trying to fuck everything up. I have a hard enough time keeping up with the normal game as is; I don't want someone making that worse by trying to sabotage his own team.

Torgo
03-02-2010, 12:10 AM
I accuse Marion. Lynch his ass and be done with it. Dude's causing nothing but consternation.

Merus
03-02-2010, 01:04 AM
An administrative note: Vote tally posts for the current day, as well as the day starts, will be linked in the rules post.

Remember the official bold text, guys. I'm skimming this thread, so I'm not reading your accusation when it's embedded in a paragraph. You gotta commit! And then retract it like three posts later.

The current vote tally (10 required to lynch):

Marion: unanimous
Nich (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693155&postcount=75)
Byron (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693208&postcount=94)
DarkBlueFlannel (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693231&postcount=101)
Marion (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693232&postcount=102)
Phantoon (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693234&postcount=103)
SpoonyGundam (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693238&postcount=106)
VorpalEdge (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693272&postcount=108)
SpecBebop (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693280&postcount=109)
Epithet (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693291&postcount=111)
dtsund (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693296&postcount=112)
dwolfe (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693301&postcount=114)
Rai (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693357&postcount=118)
Aeonus (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693440&postcount=142)
McDohl (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693622&postcount=151)
Loki (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693627&postcount=152)
vaterite (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693634&postcount=153)
Alpha Werewolf (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693843&postcount=154)
Shinji-Fox (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693959&postcount=157)
Torgo (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693979&postcount=158)

24 hours have not yet passed since the start of the day; normally, I'd also wait for 24 hours after the defence post to give everyone time to weigh in, but it seems pretty much everyone has.

Give me a few hours to ready the gallows, and let me know if ten of you are planning on having a change of heart.

dtsund
03-02-2010, 01:07 AM
An administrative note: Vote tally posts for the current day, as well as the day starts, will be linked in the rules post.

Remember the official bold text, guys. I'm skimming this thread, so I'm not reading your accusation when it's embedded in a paragraph. You gotta commit! And then retract it like three posts later.

The current vote tally (10 required to lynch):

Marion: unanimous
Nich (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693155&postcount=75)
Byron (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693208&postcount=94)
DarkBlueFlannel (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693231&postcount=101)
Marion (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693232&postcount=102)
Phantoon (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693234&postcount=103)
SpoonyGundam (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693238&postcount=106)
VorpalEdge (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693272&postcount=108)
SpecBebop (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693280&postcount=109)
Epithet (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693291&postcount=111)
dtsund (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693296&postcount=112)
dwolfe (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693301&postcount=114)
Rai (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693357&postcount=118)
Aeonus (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693440&postcount=142)
McDohl (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693622&postcount=151)
Loki (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693627&postcount=152)
vaterite (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693634&postcount=153)
Alpha Werewolf (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693843&postcount=154)
Shinji-Fox (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693959&postcount=157)
Torgo (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693979&postcount=158)

24 hours have not yet passed since the start of the day; normally, I'd also wait for 24 hours after the defence post to give everyone time to weigh in, but it seems pretty much everyone has.

Give me a few hours to ready the gallows, and let me know if ten of you are planning on having a change of heart.

All the times I've played Mafia, I don't think I've ever seen a really unanimous vote. I mean, some might have gone that way but got called once a majority was reached, or some players didn't vote out of inactivity... it's kind of magical to see.

dtsund
03-02-2010, 01:09 AM
Also, you don't even need to skim the posts; just do a control-F search for 'accuse', and watch technology do your job for you.

Merus
03-02-2010, 01:31 AM
Also, you don't even need to skim the posts; just do a control-F search for 'accuse', and watch technology do your job for you.
But it's so much fun to read!

Phantoon
03-02-2010, 01:47 AM
If Marion is Mafia he may have inadvertently given us information to work on "tomorrow". Man I love this game.

If he was Silent Noise he was Silent Noise's id. I've never have guessed from the content of his posts.

Alpha Werewolf
03-02-2010, 03:13 AM
I'm not worried about any targets my activity may have painted on me. However, I would like a nice long list from everybody of who they suspect, tommorow.

Merus
03-02-2010, 04:54 AM
Marion lynched!

The new settlement was not off to an auspicious start - tensions had been running high since that morning, where the train had made a premature stop. Accusations were thrown around, but one by one people started to notice; Marion, sunken-eyed and twitching, had been discussing the loudest that the town needed to strike first, starting with the Tuscans. "Filthy Tuscans, taking homes and jobs away from good, honest Sicilians. We should chop their 'eads off!", he'd said, smiling creepily at the thought. And people started to wonder: weren't they building a village for Tuscans to live in?

When pressed, Marion grew even more erratic, firstly claiming that if they didn't want to kill a Tuscan than they could just kill someone else, then accused Alpha Werewolf of being a Tuscan sympathiser. This was true, to the extent that Alpha Werewolf loved fresh food, good wine and virgin olive oil on freshly-baked bread. As one after another resident grew silent and turned to watch the conversation, Marion finally stopped shouting and declared, "You want to kill someone? Fine! Kill me!"

The town agreed.

Marion was led up to the hastily-constructed gallows, having changed his mind about the prospect of death. As he was led onto the trapdoor and a chain, salvaged from the train, wrapped around his neck, he announced to the eighteen townspeople watching, "You're all making a big mistake! My father is an important man! You're all going to be very sorry you crossed me! You're all going to die, you hear me! You're dead! De--"

He dropped, and bounced on the end of the chain. Something bounced out of his pocket: a blood-stained gold watch, that had, until his death, been the train drivers'.

Marion was Mafia.

It is now night. No posts can be made in this thread until day begins. For Citizens and the Oracle, it is an opportunity for some well-earned rest. For the others, the night is just beginning. I await your PMs.

Merus
03-04-2010, 12:43 AM
Wow! Real mafia! dtsund had thrilled at the stories of the mafia he'd been told on his granddaddy's knee, and now he was in the middle of a real live mob hit! Of course, he was one of the targets, but come on, it's still exciting! He knew all the stories, he'd be fine. So long as you always tipped your hat to them, paid them the proper respect, and did exactly as they said, you'd be the sole survivor to spread the word. Everyone knew that.

dtsund put on his stylin' mafia hat and his stylin' replica pistol when there was a knock at the door. Who could it be at this hour? dtsund went over to the door of his villa and called out, "Who is it?" The person at the door answered, "Sorry, friend, but I was wondering... you wouldn't be interested in a late-night game of mafia, would you?"

Wow, there were people here who were just as big a fan of mafia as he was! "Sure I would! I'll be right out!"

dtsund opened the door, and there was another townsperson, with a stylin' mafia hat and a really convincing replica pistol! dtsund couldn't remember his name, but it didn't matter for now. Everyone should be using codenames, anyway. His new friend led him towards the ocean, to the cliff that bordered the town, and down a rocky path on the cliff face, to a small outcropping well out of view of the town. There were four others already there, each with their own mafia hat and replica pistol, ready to play. dtsund couldn't help himself. "Okay everyone, let's play. Everyone close your eyes... and now mafia, open your eyes and kill someone!"

The five mafia looked down at dtsund's corpse, the bullet wound spurting blood. One of them gave his body a tip of the hat, before they picked it up and cast it off the cliff into the ocean below.

The moral of the story is: replica pistols have REPLICA printed on the side.

dtsund was killed by the Mafia. The Vigilante chose not to kill anyone.

It is now day.

dtsund
03-04-2010, 12:45 AM
FFFFFFFFFFF

Somehow, I expected this.

DemoWeasel
03-04-2010, 12:50 AM
We should have kept Marion in the game to ensure the mafia's collapse from within. Then again, that would have taken all of the fun of singling out each one of those wiseguys.

McDohl
03-04-2010, 12:52 AM
dtsund was killed by the Mafia.

Jesus FUCK that's just cold...

Torgo
03-04-2010, 01:21 AM
Speaking for myself, I was very busy the day the game commenced, and I'm in a time zone some hours behind you guys. By the time I got home, the day's deliberations were pretty much done and I had little to add: Marion had, quite literally, put the noose around his own neck at that point.

Phantoon
03-04-2010, 03:58 AM
Crap that's cold. I hope dtsund wasn't important.

Phantoon
03-04-2010, 04:40 AM
I think you may have a good point there Nich. The provisos I may add is that it could have happened because highlighting the pattern that he did was potentially injurious to Mafia. The second is that he's almost certainly played the game loads more than us. Both would make it worth killing him without Spoony necessarily being a vile Mafioso.

Loki
03-04-2010, 05:49 AM
No guys this is easy. We just wait for the next mafia guy to slip up. I mean if Marion was such an idiot they must all be, right?


...right?

vaterite
03-04-2010, 06:24 AM
It's possible that dtsund was eliminated (sorry dude) because he knows a lot about the game of mafia, and could be dangerous to them. Sorry to wag the meta-gaming stick, but I just thought I'd throw out that his death could have nothing to do with anything he said in the thread. The old pick the most experienced and smartest guys off first so they can't logic us to death plan.

Put yourselves in the mafias shoes last night. Who else seemed like a likely target? Alpha Werewolf had some accusations against him, so killing him might not be useful, because they could try to get him lynched.

vaterite
03-04-2010, 06:27 AM
On second thought, re-reading the following post makes me think they might have killed dtsund to get us to go after SpoonyGundam. After all, his death brings this post to our attention.

Regarding my opinions, I feel as though SpoonyGundam's actually, in a curious way, more suspicious than Marion. From what I've seen in past games (including the one I ran!) is that the game's scum generally tries to speed along lynches that aren't of their own, but do so in a way that doesn't seem too aggressive. SpoonyGundam's accusation kind of strikes me a bit that way, particularly his arguments afterward (seriously, if you're innocent, you shouldn't care that much who gets killed beyond 'not me', when it's all random).

Having said that, if SpoonyGundam's Mafia, I think there's a pretty good chance Marion's mob too. Since he's going to be more easily lynched at this point, I accuse Marion.

Rai
03-04-2010, 06:53 AM
While we're on the topic of suspicious players, and before I go and do much, I get out of my classes fairly early today, so I was considering doing some digests. Aside from SpoonyGundam, are there any other players people would want to consider off the tops of their heads? Because doing digests for 17 people is kind of a pain.

SpoonyGundam
03-04-2010, 07:00 AM
I'd like to think I wouldn't do something as retardedly obvious as kill the guy that thought about accusing me if I was mafia.

The mafia probably figured that killing either dtsund or Alpha Werewolf would cast suspicion on me, as well as get rid of someone who knows the game. That would be a horrible move simply because of the first part if I was actually mafia. Even if they're counting on me to try to talk my way out of it, it's not really a risk they can afford to take when they get one of their members taken out on the first turn.

VorpalEdge
03-04-2010, 07:21 AM
You want digests? I'll give you digests.

We lucked out on Marion yesterday. I'm happy that he turned out to be mafia, but he no doubt would've acted the same way if he had been a civvie. However, his death gives us valuable information. Let's not waste it. I mean, it's not every game you get to see an unanimous vote, is it?

LYCNHING MARION: http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=694029&postcount=159

Nich
Byron
DarkBlueFlannel
Marion
Phantoon
SpoonyGundam
VorpalEdge
SpecBebop
Epithet
dtsund = 10, enough to lynch

dwolfe
Rai
Aeonus = first person to vote to lynch after silent noise sez (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=693251#post693251) "marion is imposter"
Loki
vaterite
Alpha Werewolf
Shinji-Fox
Torgo

Everybody voted. Everybody. And, what's more, Merus was kind enough to organize his list chronologically by the time people posted their accusation. Now let's think about it. Members of the Mafia had to, at some point, say "fuck it" and vote against one of their own. When would they do it?

The circumstances thus far are special. As it was day one, members of the mafia had not yet had a chance to communicate. They were effectively alone that entire day, with no knowledge but a list of names. They wouldn't have been able to form some dastardly plan involving sacrificing Marion to clear themselves. Instead, they would have wanted to lynch someone else and then yell themselves hoarse at Marion, until he was beaten into submission and agreed to play by their rules. Him dying at this point is not a good thing to them. I'm getting to my point now.

The mafia would not have wanted to vote him to death, as much of a fucking nuisance as he was. Instead, they would have wanted to save him. However, once peer pressure and the mob got too large, they felt themselves forced to vote against one of their own. It is my assertion that mafia are more likely to be found the further down the vote order you go.

Let's switch gears and look at how suspicion against Marion formed.

He says nothing of substance until post 38, where he accuses alpha werewolf on the same basis that everyone else was at the time. He takes a side in the "should we talk about whether we should move to night. oh wait we can't. let's talk about it anyways!" discussion, so let's toss that post out too. Post 53 has him beginning to antagonize Nich. Post 57 is bloodthirsty towards Alpha Werewolf. The first real call-out against Marion was Byron (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=693118#post693118) at 64. Public opinion then begins to shift, with Nich chiming in at 68, Werewolf at 69, and I'm pretty clearly not buying his bullshit at 74. Nich formally accuses him at 75. Then there's post 84, which is lol, and Brickroad is namedropped at 93. Byron then thoroughly accuses him at 94. This marks the point where Marion starts to become seriously considered, I think, and where the Mafia might have begun considering whether or not they'd have to vote against him.

Oh hey, look.

What's not a good idea is unanimity at this stage in the game. We agree he's mafia, so let's lynch him tomorrow and continue to gather info for today. We're only halfway through the minimum day length and it's not even prime time yet (assuming a play time zone distribution representative of Talking Time as a whole)!

I can't decide who to accuse in his place, though. Give me a bit.

This is posted right before people start talking about Silent Noise's imposter accusation in the thread (or right after, if Nich was referencing it in post 119). Then that information starts filtering through the thread, and it becomes damn obvious that it is not possible to save Marion. So in 144, right afterwards, Aeonus then switches to Accusing Marion. While I don't find his bowing to peer pressure suspicious, I do find his first post really dumb at best. "We agree he's mafia, so let's lynch him tomorrow"? lol. Aeonus is my pick for current best suspect at this point.

The rest of the day is then basically a non-stop series of accusations against him. I'd hazard a guess that at least one Mafia is in that group, following everyone else's lead, but I also find it likely that at least one Mafia member read the winds early and is relatively early in the accusation order, so don't ignore the upper parts of the list either. I encourage you to reread the thread yourself, if you haven't already, and see what you think.

That said, I have every intention of getting the ball rolling, so I might as well start. Aeonus, you're looking pretty suspicious right now. Anyways, I'm going to go get ready for class; be back in a couple hours.

Kylie
03-04-2010, 08:35 AM
I think that's some pretty solid reasoning on Vorpal's part, in general. For my part, I'm not too suspicious of SpoonyGundam. If it's a casting of accusations, the mafia played that card early last game, and it was completely ineffective there -- they saved Comb Stranger, right?

One thing that's important to note, I think, is that we totally blazed through the last day phase. Marion was too perfect a target for EVERYONE, and we didn't learn as much as we ought. What was the time span between which Nich accused him, and the last person voted? I suspect it's kind of short, and happened early to mid-afternoon. It's clear that Mafia is distributed throughout, but I'm not sure that showing up late to the vote is actually evidence of anything yet. It may just be indicative of people who (unlike me) don't have the luxury of checking out this thread from work. If it'd been over a day or so, then I'd vote to lynch all the bastards. We want info, but it's still too early for real defenses, I think, since everything that was said about the last lynching was unanimous.

Aeonus
03-04-2010, 08:39 AM
I wasn't following the Mafia: A forum game thread until after the whole rigamarole about waiting until the next day. I didn't know he was a troll/sockpuppet until after I'd given up trying to continue discussion and just accused him.

Here's the deal about my "wait to lynch him until tomorrow" idea: we (well some of us anyway) agreed that rushing to night on the first day is a Bad Thing because it stifles discussion, and limits the amount of behavior we observe before the mafia get their chance to strategize. And what happens? Marion starts wigging out such that we unanimously decide to lynch him and then discussion stopped. After only around 12 of the minimum 24 hours day phase lasts. This is what I wanted to avoid! And now the mafia has had 48 hours to plan and strategize, or four times as much time for discussion as we used during day one.

The result is that his lynch gave us essentially no meaningful information about voting habits. I believe there's more useful information in the accusations of Alpha Werewolf than in the ones of Marion. If it had stayed on the table long enough for everyone to get online and weigh in, we could have gotten a lot more. This is what I did want! As it is, people got essentially locked out of all discussion because it was over before they got a chance to read the thread.

Meanwhile, I maintain that Marion would have been harmless if left alive for the first night. Can you come up with a compelling, plausible situation where he (who everyone agrees is untrustworthy and should not be listened to) could do significant harm to the civilian cause? On days one and two when we are guarenteed to have a big numbers advantage? In hindsight it doesn't matter because of his ban, but by indications he was an idiot and wouldn't be of much use to the mafia anyway.

(Incidentally, I wasn't particurally interested in actually waiting until today to lynch him. We could have put significant accusation pressure on someone else and then changed back to lynching Marion before the 24hr deadline. But if I had actually said that we wouldn't have gotten any useful information anyway because nobody would feel threatened by "well let's kill time by pretending to accuse X.")


I only stand out because I pushed for more time to gather behavioral information. I'm sure the mafia are delighted that everyone kind of blends together because it makes it easier for them to hide!

McDohl
03-04-2010, 10:30 AM
LYCNHING MARION: http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=694029&postcount=159

Nich
Byron
DarkBlueFlannel
Marion
Phantoon
SpoonyGundam
VorpalEdge
SpecBebop
Epithet
dtsund = 10, enough to lynch

dwolfe
Rai
Aeonus = first person to vote to lynch after silent noise sez (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showthread.php?p=693251#post693251) "marion is imposter"
Loki
vaterite
Alpha Werewolf
Shinji-Fox
Torgo

General point of order:

I voted to lynch Marion before Loki. My name is missing from your list.

McDohl
03-04-2010, 10:40 AM
As for the rest of the analysis:

Very interesting and actually very sound, although I would be a bit wary of assuming people who accuse late as being mafioso, as not everybody plays/posts at the same rate as others. Shinji-Fox couldn't believe the thread was at four pages, after all.

VorpalEdge
03-04-2010, 11:25 AM
Huh, the omission of McDohl's name from the list doesn't make much sense. I copied it straight from Merus's post... must have accidentally deleted it when typing in my additions. Sorry.

Very interesting and actually very sound, although I would be a bit wary of assuming people who accuse late as being mafioso, as not everybody plays/posts at the same rate as others. Shinji-Fox couldn't believe the thread was at four pages, after all.

Of course. It's circumstantial at best. My suspicions of Aeonus are based on more traditional methods, you'll note. But this rhetoric about us not having any information from day 1 -- completely false. We should all go back and reread the Marion accusation posts again.

(Incidentally, I wasn't particurally interested in actually waiting until today to lynch him. We could have put significant accusation pressure on someone else and then changed back to lynching Marion before the 24hr deadline. But if I had actually said that we wouldn't have gotten any useful information anyway because nobody would feel threatened by "well let's kill time by pretending to accuse X.")

How, exactly, were citizens of all people supposed to coordinate something like that when the best reason to lynch someone other than Marion would have been lynching me for my avatar? And what kinds of defense were you expecting? Also, if you got any information from the pre-Marion discussion more useful than "Alpha Werewolf does not like the 'must lynch on day 1' rule and would like to play the game" and "SpoonyGundam would rather get it over with so he can start musing about things on day 2, this time with actual information from the mafia kill", feel free to let the rest of us know. The entire discussion was purely reactionary and I got nothing from it.

VorpalEdge
03-04-2010, 11:27 AM
And I can't understand how anyone would feel threatened by random accusations when Marion was such a good target.

Phantoon
03-04-2010, 11:36 AM
I'd like to think I wouldn't do something as retardedly obvious as kill the guy that thought about accusing me if I was mafia.

The mafia probably figured that killing either dtsund or Alpha Werewolf would cast suspicion on me, as well as get rid of someone who knows the game. That would be a horrible move simply because of the first part if I was actually mafia. Even if they're counting on me to try to talk my way out of it, it's not really a risk they can afford to take when they get one of their members taken out on the first turn.

I don't buy this for a second. The attempt on Comb Stranger last game exonarated Merus in many people's eyes - in fact I lead that charge. Merus commented in the other thread that if he'd got whacked then Brick would have ridden that fact to clear himself. It's not a bad bluff now - get rid of a major threat and come out of it smelling of roses.

Add to that the fact that Marion agreed with you early on and you were awfully eager to get Alpha lynched ASAP and you're my number one suspect still. The only evidence against you being Mafia in my eyes is how hilariously eager Marion was to throw you under the bus when things got bad.

I think we can agree that Marion was a terrible player at this, so people he was willing to kill are likely not Mafia. As I see it, this clears Alpha Werewolf. I also think Aeonus is above board - if we'd had the chance to keep Marion alive he'd probably have been a liability to his own team. I think some of the Mafia will have been glad to see him go regardless of what it did to their numbers.

dwolfe
03-04-2010, 11:36 AM
As per my usual method, quoting and replying as I read the thread. Hoping the thought process outline helps, but I'll stop if it's too hard to read.

Crap that's cold. I hope dtsund wasn't important.

Wait...so we don't learn the roles of anyone killed at night, unless:

1.) If we're the vigilante, we learn our kill's role
2.) If we're mafia, we learn our kill's role
3.) If we're oracle, we learn both kill's roles?

Is this correct? If so, can we rule out dtsund being the vigilante? If a vigilante makes a kill and is mafia killed, will his kill still go off? Merus, any answers if appropriate?

On second thought, re-reading the following post makes me think they might have killed dtsund to get us to go after SpoonyGundam. After all, his death brings this post to our attention.

Wouldn't this also make us trust SpoonyGundam more, since we know dtsund isn't mafia? Or maybe the mafia wants us to think that. Or they want us to think that they want us to think that...etc. I don't see how this helps. See also: the Sicilian, Princess Bride.

...

VorpalBlade's temporal ordering of accusations of Marion isn't very useful, IMHO. Some people don't log on until after a lynching would go through, some jump on early to make themselves 'seem' trustworthy, some wait to actually vote until Marion could defend himself. And, wouldn't you know it, VB's in the first 10 to make himself look good, how convenient! I don't see any reason to listen to this argument, except we don't have better theories.

I voted vs. marion because he was a jerk trying to ruin the game, pure and simple. He was a troll that would try to derail any discussion, and was excised from the game accordingly. I had no clue of his role, Mafia, Citizen, or power role, and neither did anyone else, correct? Did I miss some clue?

Byron has a good idea, let's wait a while before accusations and actually try to learn something today. I hope no one accuses for a full day to let everyone get a post in the thread this time, as there's not upper limit on day other than being reasonable, right?

Aeon independently says as much, he was late to the thread. But you're very wrong about leaving Marion in the game. He was mafia. What if he'd posted his fellow mafia members, forcing a restart of the game? Thank god he got banned asap. even if he was inspector, he couldn't have hurt the game as much as he could have in his actual role of Mafia.

...

I'm going to be out for at least 9-10 hours today, but I think everyone can agree to wait 24 hours before any accusations flow, to allow everyone to post like it was Day One: Part Deux, ok?

Phantoon
03-04-2010, 11:39 AM
Only the Oracle or the killer learns the role of people killed at night.

Kylie
03-04-2010, 11:42 AM
...Of course. It's circumstantial at best. My suspicions of Aeonus are based on more traditional methods, you'll note. But this rhetoric about us not having any information from day 1 -- completely false. We should all go back and reread the Marion accusation posts again.



How, exactly, were citizens of all people supposed to coordinate something like that when the best reason to lynch someone other than Marion would have been lynching me for my avatar... the entire discussion was purely reactionary and I got nothing from it.

Re: your first point - we got information. I don't think anybody is denying that. I think the point in question is that we did not get information with regards to a hard yes-or-no support of a person who is now a known mafioso - we cannot simply weed out mafia by finding out who defends mafia. I assume our mafia are not dumb enough to line themselves up that way. Or, at least, our living mafia. Unless someone comes out and declares themselves both the oracle AND the inspector in a tragic fit of stupidity, I don't think we'll get that lucky again. Additionally, what we didn't get is a list of game-ideological lineups -- we don't really know who the bloodthirsty players are, because we were forced to lynch, and I think the concept of an inevitable lynching led most of us to start voting to kill. It just means that we have to be very careful how we filter the information that we get. It also means that in many ways, today's going to be much more informative than yesterday was, because we DON'T have to lynch today. And I'm not saying that we won't, and I'm not saying that we shouldn't -- I absolutely support doing so, since the process alone gives us information -- but I think it means we'll be less likely to string some poor sucker up with less than eight hours of procedure.

I'm not sure what the first couple of sentences in your second paragraph are supposed to mean -- your avatar isn't under scrutiny at the moment, and wasn't. Are you referring to AW? As much as the "I don't understand what he's saying let's lynch him" philosophy grates on me, being misunderstood leads to suspicion, and suspicion's the mafia's most valuable tool.

Kylie
03-04-2010, 11:49 AM
Byron has a good idea, let's wait a while before accusations and actually try to learn something today. I hope no one accuses for a full day to let everyone get a post in the thread this time, as there's not upper limit on day other than being reasonable, right?

Did I say that? I'll have to recheck my posts. I may have, in a roundabout way. I don't think that we should necessarily wait forever before accusing, but I do think we should be careful not to lynch too quickly. In eight hours, the suspect might not even get in a proper defense post. We've seen it happen, and let's keep in mind that the defense post is the ONLY thing that keeps us from lynching our power roles. Sometimes it might not even do that. And with this structure -- we all vote independently -- there's a decent chance that a person could be lynched in majority before they even read the day's posts. And while a gallows defense might sway some people, changing your vote can be interpreted as mafia behavior - or, at least, has been in previous games. And if 12 people are voting to kill someone, nobody wants to change their individual vote. Especially not if the dead guy turns out to be mafia.

DarkBlueFlannel
03-04-2010, 11:59 AM
But, lynch votes aren't acted upon until the end of the 24hr interval. So, no one is going to get lynched in 8 hours. Unless I'm reading this part wrong...

Day will last no less than 24 hours. If a successful vote occurs within 24 hours (either to lynch or to proceed with no lynch), it will not be acted upon until 24 hours have passed. During this time, players may continue posting and change their votes if they want.

Arguably, it would allow the most time for a player to defend him or herself if we did start accusing early. Of course, this doesn't change the fact that there is little to go on with regard to accusations as of yet.

Kylie
03-04-2010, 12:16 PM
But, lynch votes aren't acted upon until the end of the 24hr interval. So, no one is going to get lynched in 8 hours. Unless I'm reading this part wrong...



Arguably, it would allow the most time for a player to defend him or herself if we did start accusing early. Of course, this doesn't change the fact that there is little to go on with regard to accusations as of yet.

I stand corrected. I'm still wary of mob rule, as it were, but it's nice to know that if this is carried through, at least checking once a day will prevent an undefended lynching.

Aeonus
03-04-2010, 12:16 PM
Re: Nich's requests for who I'm suspicious of:
Well, that's fair. Even if I'd rather not be generating any ill will at this moment in time.

The problem is, I don't feel there's a lot to go on, the very reason I wanted to delay Marion's lynching.

The people I think are most suspicious (and "most" is still "not very") are the ones who actually seemed interested in seeing AW hang (rather than e.g. Nich and I who just wanted to foster discussion).

Those are SpoonyGundam and Marion, with a nod to Epithet for this:
Hmm, so far we have two lynch accusations on the table: Alpha Werewolf and SpoonyGundam. If I were to consider the merits of lynching them, I would probably go with Alpha Werewolf, since we're farther along with lynching him and I can see how a non-mafia poster could make SpoonyGundam's "incriminating" comment. I think I'll hold off on accusing for now, and see what happens.
[emphasis mine]

Marion's out of the picture, obviously. And that's really the limit on how much blood I can squeeze from that stone. It just didn't last long enough. I think we might have been better served this time by the formal-trial setup from the first game, because it would have forced us to get AW off the table before we could steamroll Marion.

And then Marion's trial was the matter of a few people with good reason to accuse him, then a long string of me-toos based on the same reasons, or peer pressure, or inevitability. VorpalEdge got as much info out of that as I think we're going to get, but it's all lost in the noise of people's schedules.

Alpha Werewolf
03-04-2010, 12:25 PM
Before I launch my post, I would like to mention something. All of you have have ~8 or less posts, POST MORE.

I believe the mafia killed dtsund because of one thing only, and that is the fact that no Angel would think of protecting him. I'll take a wild guess here: The angels protected me, Nich, Aeonus, or themselves. There is, however, a second reason, and that reason wil be outlined below.

SG post-by-post analysis:
This is kind of a useless discussion to begin with. Arguing whether we should lynch or not on day one or whether or not it's a good thing is pretty irrelevant if we are already required to lynch someone by the rules. So, yeah. Let's just move on to the next day already.

I accuse Alpha Werewolf.
I have already voiced my thoughts about this post. "Let's just move on" is a very scum phrase, and it will take a lot to get that out of my mind. I simply cannot see a townie post this.

That's all well and good, but some discussion can definitely be pretty useless at times.

Discussing motivation behind someones posts is useful. You're trying to do that here, and that's great.

Arguing about whether or not we should do something we already have to do is pretty damn pointless outside of killing time.
This post is also very much about killing time. Nothing much here, let's move on.

Seriously, AW? That's what you're hung up on?

The day lasts another what? 16 hours, minimum? Even if everyone else in the game voted for you, that wouldn't change, and people wouldn't stop talking during that time. Either I was being flippant when I said we should get it over with, or I have the most ineffective strategy ever to cease discussion entirely and move to night phase.

Did I vote to lynch you just because others had? Yes! Are we still getting information even though I apparently want to end the day as soon as possible? Yes!

Even if I wanted to, I couldn't completely stop discussion from going on in this game. Nobody could.
SG is stating the obvious here... Mostly. However, he is right about one thing. We were gaining information. Scum vibe from this post, as townies wouldn't normally respond like that to perfectly fine discussion posts. The overreacting here doesn't suit town in my eyes, and although I admit it could - the rest of his posts make me suspicious.

Wait, why do you suggest that? Is it because they've already gotten a shot at the game and you'd feel sorry for someone if they got offed early on when they haven't played it before?

I'm going to be perfectly honest here, to the citizens and power roles and mafia. Even if that wasn't your reasoning behind suggesting that, don't do this. Yes, it sucks for whoever it is that dies on the first day, but limiting your targets based on playtime is crippling yourself. Roles were not assigned based on experience, and not looking at the new guys as well is doing it wrong. I don't want to play against someone who isn't playing to the best of their ability, and if you limit yourself like this (Or are limiting yourself some other way, like how the mafia in the previous game left Brick and Merus alive because they thought interest would die if they killed them), you can't be playing as best you can.
SG's post is a lot of nothing. Clearly the motivation to this kind of suggestion is to not get lynched yourself, and not to "let the new guys play". SG conveniently doesn't mention this - it is possible that this is a veiled warning to a scumbuddy about their actions!

Wait, what? If we think you're a mafia, I should get killed?

What?
There is no other proper reaction to the post this response was made for.

I will admit that I jumped over to the east thread for a second to see Brickroad's posts after Marion claimed he stole the idea, since I thought it was an unusually bad idea for Brick to have as Marion presented it. He didn't actually steal the idea right, though. Brick's argument was (Spoiler'd for the meta-game allergic) that they should lynch someone that they know will be mostly useless if left alive, and the only way they'd know that on day one is if that person played the game before.

The lack of reading comprehension there, combined with some peculiar arguments that involved throwing me under a bus for some reason is good enough for me to change my vote.

I accuse Marion.
Here's a thought. All the points brought here have existed since, at LEAST, SG's previous post. Why did he not vote Marion then?

I'll tell you why. This post came shortly after Marion voted for himself. As scum, if your buddies are going down, a common tactic is to 'bus' them - literally throw them under the bus to get suspicion off of yourself.

There was no need to read Brick's reason to come to this conclusion. Why then, did he not come to it earlier? Simply, there was still a chance of pulling Marion out of the fire.

I don't think there's honestly a good reason to leave a mafia alive, but I don't really know I could call him a mafia in light of the trolling thing.

If what Silent Noise says is true, he could also easily be a power role trying to draw suspicion on himself to get lynched.
(I have deleted an irrelevant part of this post. For reference, it is post #125)
Why would you not call him a mafia? How is trolling a sign for good OR bad?
Also note the last ditch attempt to save Marion: "He could be a power role!". No, really? How can anybody who has the town's best interests in mind not see that A TROLLING POWER ROLE IS AS BAD AS SCUM? We had NO leads, nothing, and still you bring up this 'warning'?

Oh man, I'd vote "no" to a reroll so hard if I was a mafia.

But I guess I'm kind of biased, since I don't think I've played a game of Mafia where the investigator didn't die somehow within the first two or three days
Oh, you'd vote no if you were mafia? Really? Man, you're trying awefully hard to distance yourself from any and all scum associations. Also: Admits he's played mafia, which makes behavioural analysis that is adjusted for experienced players even better on him.

We could go after someone else to see their defense and try to draw out new information, but we'll eventually have to confirm the information either through lynching or investigating. And I don't think we want the investigator to come out this early.

We can't just set Marion, or anyone else under suspicion, aside because we're absolutely sure he's mafia. We aren't even close to absolutely sure, and we might as well confirm it now rather than later. At worst, we'll lose a player that isn't really contributing much to begin with.

Or, yeah, what Nich said.
Strengthening his anti-Marion position, as any sane person would at this point. Not saying much else here - a curiously long post, for one that says nothing new.

I'd like to think I wouldn't do something as retardedly obvious as kill the guy that thought about accusing me if I was mafia.

The mafia probably figured that killing either dtsund or Alpha Werewolf would cast suspicion on me, as well as get rid of someone who knows the game. That would be a horrible move simply because of the first part if I was actually mafia. Even if they're counting on me to try to talk my way out of it, it's not really a risk they can afford to take when they get one of their members taken out on the first turn.
This tips me off more than any other post by SG. See, where I play we call this WIFOM, or Wine In Front Of Me. The mafia figured out that killing dtsund would cast suspicion on you, and that's why they killed him. But wait, what if that's what you WANT us to think? etc. WIFOM is also called (by myself) bullshit.

This is not an arguement you should make. EVER. It is commonly used by scum in order to spread confusion, and cause people to look away from the original point - dtsund's one and only contribution to the game was this post:

Regarding my opinions, I feel as though SpoonyGundam's actually, in a curious way, more suspicious than Marion. From what I've seen in past games (including the one I ran!) is that the game's scum generally tries to speed along lynches that aren't of their own, but do so in a way that doesn't seem too aggressive. SpoonyGundam's accusation kind of strikes me a bit that way, particularly his arguments afterward (seriously, if you're innocent, you shouldn't care that much who gets killed beyond 'not me', when it's all random).

Having said that, if SpoonyGundam's Mafia, I think there's a pretty good chance Marion's mob too. Since he's going to be more easily lynched at this point, I accuse Marion.
Puts quite a bit of suspicion on SG, and also mentions that if SG's mafia, there's a good chance Marion is too. Too good a guess, maybe? Also a great target, being an easy-to-kill inactive guy.

That's my case. I invite you, SG, to debunk every one of my points. Until you do,

I accuse SpoonyGundam

Finally: I would like a scum-town meter from everybody. Will post mine later - damn that's a big wall of text I wrote up, and I want to hear SG's defense too.

VorpalEdge
03-04-2010, 12:28 PM
I'm not sure what the first couple of sentences in your second paragraph are supposed to mean -- your avatar isn't under scrutiny at the moment, and wasn't. Are you referring to AW? As much as the "I don't understand what he's saying let's lynch him" philosophy grates on me, being misunderstood leads to suspicion, and suspicion's the mafia's most valuable tool.

If you thought that was multiple sentences then I really need to work on my writing skills. ;) My avatar is of a villain, which is why I said that.

Kylie
03-04-2010, 12:51 PM
Mostly, it's because the game gives me something to do between assignments at work, and because I'm totally fascinated with it. The previous game ruined my LSAT study routine, thank-you-very-much. :)

Re:avatars: I totally had no idea that yours was of a villain, V-E; my apologies.

Aeonus
03-04-2010, 12:52 PM
How, exactly, were citizens of all people supposed to coordinate something like that when the best reason to lynch someone other than Marion would have been lynching me for my avatar?
It wouldn't have to be coordinated. It's likely that enough people would have left accusations on Marion that a near-deadline vote switch (mine) and a "thanks guys, that gives us more data for the future" could swing it back to Marion (if he ever lost a majority in the first place). The big issue was, as you say, the lack of another target. Like AW said later: it's a good tactic but only if you have more leads to go on. I misapplied it. What can I say? It's my first time playing.

And what kinds of defense were you expecting?
Defenses are not as interesting as who comes to support them and who joins the prosecution. If I learned anything from reading the first game, it's that a suspect's defense never changed anyone's mind (if there's a counterexample in there please call bullshit on me).


Maybe I put too much emphasis on people's words and not enough on the cold hard fact you get from a lynch. But I do know that that latter without the former means that you may get one mafia but you're still no closer to the other 5. To use a trite metaphor, it's not enough to win the battle if you still lose the war.

SpecBebop
03-04-2010, 12:52 PM
WIFOM

I think this is a good point.

There's an expectation that everyone playing here will have read over the last game (and for some of us, myself included, it comprises all of our Mafia experience), and will notice the similarity of this situation to the Comb-Merus one. The mafia could be trying to exploit this.

Alpha Werewolf
03-04-2010, 12:59 PM
I agree, but I'll tell you someone I'm going to look more carefully at once I'm off work and have time to scrutinize everything on day 1: Byron. I was the first person to accuse Alpha Werewolf and then the first to accuse Marion. Both times, Byron was the second. It's possible that's just because Byron was around while I was shooting my mouth off every which way and not many other people were, but it's also possible that Byron decided early on that his day 1 strategy to fit in amongst the townspeople would be to agree with any accusation save for his own as early as possible, no matter who was getting accused. Two accusations are never enough to swing a vote, and he could always change his accusation later if that seemed attractive or preferable.

In that light, to me, his initial "suspicion" of Marion just before my formal accusation reads like a warning: cool it, dude, before someone accuses you. This isn't much to go on, admittedly, and I'm not going to actually accuse him or anyone until I'm off work and have time to mull things over more. But a smart Mafia player could use a strategy like this very effectively to deflect suspicion: the accusations come early enough to prevent him seeming like he's changing his vote according to which way the wind is blowing, while being too early to be the decisive vote on anything.

I was thinking about that. To that end, he's either noob town, since these genrally agree with everybody to keep safe, or smart scum as you describe.

I'm still unsure as to which one he really is.

SpoonyGundam
03-04-2010, 01:16 PM
But, lynch votes aren't acted upon until the end of the 24hr interval. So, no one is going to get lynched in 8 hours. Unless I'm reading this part wrong...

And I thought the 24 hour countdown doesn't start until the first actual accusation. It seems unlikely that someone will be unable to defend himself at all for an entire day, so this doesn't really seem like a huge concern to me.

I don't buy this for a second. The attempt on Comb Stranger last game exonarated Merus in many people's eyes - in fact I lead that charge. Merus commented in the other thread that if he'd got whacked then Brick would have ridden that fact to clear himself. It's not a bad bluff now - get rid of a major threat and come out of it smelling of roses.

You're right, of course, but there is a major difference between this game and the previous game. Simply because one of the mafia members dropped on the first turn should make it less likely that the mafia will take such a large risk, especially when I'm already suspicious enough that I could very likely not talk my way out of the target they painted on me.

They just couldn't afford to lose two members this early in the game. I'm glad you're calling me out on that, though, since I think it only make the implied strategy seem more risky and my argument stronger.

I'll gladly offer myself up for investigation, though, and I'd much rather do that than waste a turn's lynch on someone I know is innocent. The investigator just shouldn't speak up if I'm clear, and the only one who will be in any danger in the night phase will be me. I am fine with that.

Granted, it might put the civilians in an unfavorable position to have the investigator known this early in the event that I actually am mafia, but I'm pretty confident that the investigator will not need to speak up if I get investigated. Everyone can feel free to take that with a grain of salt and discuss the proposition with each other, though.

Regarding other people that need looking into, I want to hear more out of Shinji and Torgo this phase. There's no basis for accusation there, so I won't do that, but there's not really much basis for anything regarding them. They stand out as the guys who could afford to be talking more.

And since AW posted since I started typing this:

SG is stating the obvious here... Mostly. However, he is right about one thing. We were gaining information. Scum vibe from this post, as townies wouldn't normally respond like that to perfectly fine discussion posts. The overreacting here doesn't suit town in my eyes, and although I admit it could - the rest of his posts make me suspicious.

In regards to your accusation that my "let's move on" comment was a mafia trick meant to speed the game along, I'm going to ask you a question. Do you normally play this game in person, or on forums? If on forums, do you play with the same 24 hour rule that Merus has in play here?

I'm simply saying that, while viable in the games of mafia that you're used to playing, the "mafia starts a rush to end the turn" is not a viable strategy here. I don't think hastiness is completely unimportant, but I do think you put far too much stock in it in your initial accusation of me, and it makes me pretty suspicious of you because you were so bloodthirsty over something that seemed fairly trivial.

SG's post is a lot of nothing. Clearly the motivation to this kind of suggestion is to not get lynched yourself, and not to "let the new guys play". SG conveniently doesn't mention this - it is possible that this is a veiled warning to a scumbuddy about their actions!

That's an interesting interpretation!

I'm afraid you're reading into it too much, though. It just really bothered me when I read that the mafia last game left dangerous players alive just so interest in the game wouldn't die. I never played the game with people that pulled punches like that, and I don't really want to now.

How would I even give a hidden message to another mafia, anyway? We wouldn't even have been allowed to speak in private yet to work out some kind of system.

Here's a thought. All the points brought here have existed since, at LEAST, SG's previous post. Why did he not vote Marion then?

Lies. Marion only brought up the Brickroad thing after my previous post. And then I checked Brickroad's strategy. And then I posted.

Why do you have to lie?

I considered voting for Marion in the previous post, but I was still suspicious of you and wanted to hear his reasoning behind his suggestion to kill me before I switched my vote, even if I didn't expect much.

Why would you not call him a mafia? How is trolling a sign for good OR bad?
Also note the last ditch attempt to save Marion: "He could be a power role!". No, really? How can anybody who has the town's best interests in mind not see that A TROLLING POWER ROLE IS AS BAD AS SCUM? We had NO leads, nothing, and still you bring up this 'warning'?

This is just baffling to me. No, trolling isn't good or bad. Yes, it's good to kill a troll anyway. Notice how I didn't change my vote?

It was only a response to Nich's "I'm pretty sure he's just a bad mafia."

Oh, you'd vote no if you were mafia? Really? Man, you're trying awefully hard to distance yourself from any and all scum associations. Also: Admits he's played mafia, which makes behavioural analysis that is adjusted for experienced players even better on him.

I would vote no! This is perfectly in-line with what I mentioned earlier regarding letting new players off the hook. And this is hardly the first time I mentioned playing the game before.

Strengthening his anti-Marion position, as any sane person would at this point. Not saying much else here - a curiously long post, for one that says nothing new.

These things happen on forums sometimes. I started the post before Nich made his comments, edited some things, reread what Aeonus was saying, then saw Nich post what I was going to anyway.

I just said "Fuck it," shortened it, and posted it anyway.

This tips me off more than any other post by SG. See, where I play we call this WIFOM, or Wine In Front Of Me. The mafia figured out that killing dtsund would cast suspicion on you, and that's why they killed him. But wait, what if that's what you WANT us to think? etc. WIFOM is also called (by myself) bullshit.

See above. Yes, I understand your reasoning. I still contend that this is way too risky a move to reasonably make in the situation that the mafia is in.

Aeonus
03-04-2010, 01:18 PM
Lynching him on day 1 gave us that certainty, though, as I freely admit, at the cost of some potential data.

Yeah, my optimum scenario was to get both; accuse someone else enough to get useful responses, but lynch Marion in the end. But like I said before, I couldn't come out and say it because then it wouldn't work. I suppose then we'd have the same what-if thoughts about the other accused person, but I didn't think that far ahead.

Merus
03-04-2010, 01:29 PM
If so, can we rule out dtsund being the vigilante? If a vigilante makes a kill and is mafia killed, will his kill still go off? Merus, any answers if appropriate?

You cannot - the vigilante's kill will still go through if they're targeted by the mafia.

Arguably, it would allow the most time for a player to defend him or herself if we did start accusing early.

Players have about 24 hours from when they're accused until I'll consider the lynch action successful, even after the first 24 hours have passed.

Alpha Werewolf
03-04-2010, 02:01 PM
In regards to your accusation that my "let's move on" comment was a mafia trick meant to speed the game along, I'm going to ask you a question. Do you normally play this game in person, or on forums? If on forums, do you play with the same 24 hour rule that Merus has in play here?

I'm simply saying that, while viable in the games of mafia that you're used to playing, the "mafia starts a rush to end the turn" is not a viable strategy here. I don't think hastiness is completely unimportant, but I do think you put far too much stock in it in your initial accusation of me, and it makes me pretty suspicious of you because you were so bloodthirsty over something that seemed fairly trivial.
No 24 hour rule where I play, because it tends to drag far longer than that anyway. Mafia rushes ARE viable, if they can make it look like they're hasty townies - which is why I'm so wary of them.

How would I even give a hidden message to another mafia, anyway? We wouldn't even have been allowed to speak in private yet to work out some kind of system.
I'd expect scum to read into scum posts more than usual, to get any hidden messages.

Lies. Marion only brought up the Brickroad thing after my previous post. And then I checked Brickroad's strategy. And then I posted.

Why do you have to lie?

I considered voting for Marion in the previous post, but I was still suspicious of you and wanted to hear his reasoning behind his suggestion to kill me before I switched my vote, even if I didn't expect much.
Let me get this straight. His lack of reading comprehension made you vote for him? There is literally no good reason for what he suggested (and for the record, it was stupid in the Eastie thread too).

This is just baffling to me. No, trolling isn't good or bad. Yes, it's good to kill a troll anyway. Notice how I didn't change my vote?

It was only a response to Nich's "I'm pretty sure he's just a bad mafia."
If leaving mafia alive is bad, but you're not sure that Marion's trolling makes him a mafioso, doesn't it follow logically that you're not sure we should lynch Marion? If that's not what that post meant, please enlighten me.

I would vote no! This is perfectly in-line with what I mentioned earlier regarding letting new players off the hook. And this is hardly the first time I mentioned playing the game before.
Never said it wasn't in line with what you mentioned. My point was that you're distancing yourself from the scum, creating a "we" and "them" mentality that includes you in the town, not the scum.

These things happen on forums sometimes. I started the post before Nich made his comments, edited some things, reread what Aeonus was saying, then saw Nich post what I was going to anyway.

I just said "Fuck it," shortened it, and posted it anyway.
I don't like that explanation. Too often, scum keep up a bare semblance of activity and contribution that amounts to nothing.

See above. Yes, I understand your reasoning. I still contend that this is way too risky a move to reasonably make in the situation that the mafia is in.
I don't think anything is too risky, if it works. We had a player claim Doctor (pretty much an Angel) and go uncountered, and then the game ended in a state where everybody was town - impossible. Turned out he was scum, and there was no Doctor (very uncommon!).

Phantoon
03-04-2010, 03:54 PM
What's with all of the scum talk? This is Talking Time, not a football match.

I see Loki is being low key again.

SpecBebop
03-04-2010, 04:10 PM
I see Loki is being low key again.

Only a mafioso would make such a terrible pun!

McDohl
03-04-2010, 04:45 PM
Finally: I would like a scum-town meter from everybody. Will post mine later - damn that's a big wall of text I wrote up, and I want to hear SG's defense too.

Two questions here:

1. What are you trying to determine, exactly?

2. How does this help anyone but the mafia?

Loki
03-04-2010, 04:51 PM
What's with all of the scum talk? This is Talking Time, not a football match.

I see Loki is being low key again.

Some of us have day jobs in which we can't devote thousands of hours to terrible theories and penny-defenses.

Marion screwed us good and we have almost no information to go off of. This feels like day one all over again. I find it hard to suspect anyone at this point.

Loki
03-04-2010, 04:52 PM
Also, define scum? What are we looking for when you guys refer to it?

vaterite
03-04-2010, 05:16 PM
What's with all of the scum talk? This is Talking Time, not a football match.


Correct, on talking time, they are referred to as SCUMM.

Torgo
03-04-2010, 05:20 PM
I've gone over the thread again, and it doesn't yield a lot to me. Unfortunately, the all the drama that dumbshit caused really ended up coloring the day's deliberations.

I can say with a degree of certainty that I've got a good feeling about Nich. Nich got the ball rolling by accusing Alpha at random, which helped out Marion for us. Considering Marion turned out to be Mafia, the only explanation would be some kind of elaborate ruse meant to establish Nich in a bogus leadership role. The only problem there is that it's pretty impossible to believe that the Mafia would sacrifice one of their own on the first day, and it's almost as unlikely that all the participants would be able to read between the lines without prior communication. For the moment, I'm willing to give his analysis the benefit of the doubt. One thing though...

I agree, but I'll tell you someone I'm going to look more carefully at once I'm off work and have time to scrutinize everything on day 1: Byron. I was the first person to accuse Alpha Werewolf and then the first to accuse Marion. Both times, Byron was the second.
Not that it's necessarily worth anything, but Aeonus was actually the second one to accuse Alpha. Maybe the timestamps are really close to the point where it doesn't matter, but it's worth pointing that out if it's one of the reasons we're going to put Byron under the microscope.

vaterite
03-04-2010, 05:42 PM
After reading Alpha Werewolf and Spoony Gundam at each other's throats, I a few possible interpretations (well, OK, the only possible interpretations) present themselves:

1) Alpha Werewolf is mafia and has decided to play "town helpful." He's furthering the mafia's agenda which they started last night by killing dtsund. He could be working with Nich, who was the first to propose accusing Spoony.
2) Spoony Gundam is mafia and all of Alpha Werewolf's somewhat arguments with his catchphrase SCUMM are spot on.
4) They're both townies, and the mafia are sitting back, chortling.
3) They're both mafia, going at each other to dissuade suspicions of one, in the event the other is caught.

In any event, speaking from my experience last game, if Alpha Werewolf is counting the number of times each of us has posted, he's very seriously into spending a lot of time on this game.

Frankly I'd be fine accusing either one of them, but since Spoony Gundam is already accused, I boldly accuse Alpha Werewolf.



PS dwolfe, It's day two......you're lucky there's someone better to accuse.

Torgo
03-04-2010, 05:58 PM
*stuff about Alpha and Spoony
You're forgetting that, as Phantoon pointed out, Marion was also at Alpha's throat. Marion turned out to be mafia. Granted, I'm mildly reluctant to put much stock in the actions of someone bent on fucking everyone's good time, but it's worth keeping in mind.

DarkBlueFlannel
03-04-2010, 06:02 PM
Put yourselves in the mafias shoes last night. Who else seemed like a likely target? Alpha Werewolf had some accusations against him, so killing him might not be useful, because they could try to get him lynched.

Just a coincidence, I know...

Kylie
03-04-2010, 06:17 PM
We're ALL going under the microscope here, eventually, either inspector-wise or lynch-wise. I get my turn, same as all the rest of y'all.

Despite Nich's suspicion of me, vaterite, I really don't think he's mafia, though if he IS, then we're really in trouble. This doesn't clear AW, or SG, but I'm not convinced yet. If the purpose of the mafia is to sow discord, this is doing it pretty well. Of the two, I trust Spoony more. I don't think the mafia killed dtsund to set him up -- and AW seems to be accusing SG of posts he didn't make, and using the vaguely McCarthy-esque "This is what scum do. You look like scum" rebuttal, and lines like "If leaving mafia alive is bad, but you're not sure that Marion's trolling makes him a mafioso, doesn't it follow logically that you're not sure we should lynch Marion?" It doesn't follow logically. Even if he's not sure that Marion is Mafia, there are plenty of reasons to be sure we should lynch Marion -- among other things, that killing game-disrupting trolls is good, a reason previously mentioned.

I'm not yet sure who to accuse.

Also we should make a Talking Time custom of lynching dwolfe without question on Day 2, just to make sure he doesn't get any funny ideas.

vaterite
03-04-2010, 06:38 PM
Hah!

agreed.

Loki
03-04-2010, 06:45 PM
AW seems to be accusing SG of posts he didn't make, and using the vaguely McCarthy-esque "This is what scum do. You look like scum" rebuttal

Do we even know what scum is supposed to refer to or is just a term that AW made up?

VorpalEdge
03-04-2010, 06:56 PM
Can't imagine it meaning anything besides 'mafia'.

Loki
03-04-2010, 07:02 PM
I got the impression that AW meant it to refer to something more specific within people's posts.

Kylie
03-04-2010, 08:09 PM
Laziness, apparently. I didn't realize it was the case -- I took your accusation at face value. And what am I supposed to say to that? I accused AW because the ball needed to roll, and at that point in the game it DID NOT MATTER WHO WE ACCUSED. Up until Marion started acting like an idiot. I thought it mattered then, but gave him the benefit of the doubt. When I realized I wasn't the only one, it seemed the natural move to go ahead and accuse. I flatter myself in thinking that I started the motion to lynch the jerk, but that is neither here nor there.

I'm not actually sure what I'm supposed to defend against here, unless you're putting forth the point that only Mafia wouldn't bother to defend themselves. Which is... kind of ridiculous, honestly. Should I have gone back and checked? Sure. I'd have been well-served to do so. But I will, sir, thank you not to rephrase my responses to make me look completely disingenuous. Misrepresenting those who disagree with you is, as they say, a scum tactic.

McDohl
03-04-2010, 08:32 PM
I'm home now and ready to start poring over the dense thicket of words. But until I have my analysis ready (and I'd like to see some more analysis from other people in the meantime--Alpha Werewolf's request of a guiltometer isn't a bad idea at all)

Here's why I think it's a bad idea though:

At this point in the game, we can't ever be sure why the mafia targets who they target. However, the mafia gets a free peek as to who is closest to their suggestion and snipe them off.

We, as citizens, have to assume though that's why the mafia hit their target. It could lead us down a wild good chase, or we could lose a member who is very accurate in pinpointing out who they think the mafia is. It seems to me that this is win/win for the mafia.

I'm not sure what we get out of it. I'm looking to be enlightened here, but I'm remaining incredibly cynical about this move.

Kylie
03-04-2010, 08:52 PM
Perhaps I'm not. I think that what I'm saying is that I thought Marion was being bloodthirsty and kind of dumb, but that those two qualities do not make you mafioso. I defended AW from a rather silly accusation. Marion then proceeded to be dumber, and bloodthirstier, and I formalized my accusation, believing him to be, as I stated in my accusation, either idiotic, or mafia. Other people agreed after the fact, with statements like "I agree with Nich and Byron" and "it seems like the consensus is to string him up."

If you're accusing me of bandwagoning, I think that my reasons for accusation were reasonably thought out and detailed in my posts - far more reasoned and complete than most that followed. If you are putting forth that I have reasons to accuse suspicious Mafiosi, I agree with you entirely. I'm still deciding who I think is suspicious, here. I don't think it's EITHER SG or AW. I'm leaning towards you, sir. You've led every major lynch effort, which makes you extremely dangerous in a lot of ways. But I still don't think you're mob. There are still players who've never posted more than a sentence at a time, and I am very suspicious of those.

vaterite
03-04-2010, 09:02 PM
there's exactly one accusation on the table, and it's because Alpha Werewolf is convinced that dtsund was killed on the back of his suspicions towards SpoonyGundam.

Actually, I think you'll find that there's two.

McDohl
03-04-2010, 09:03 PM
Plus, the Mafia's going to get a good look at everyone's suspicions today anyway when we start making our formal accusations. We might as well put our cards on the table and see if we there's already a consensus percolating before we get down to the business of lynching someone.

This is an interesting point I hadn't considered, but you only pick one person for nomination, as opposed hinting at five (or, as I figured what Alpha Werewolf wanted, ALL) mafioso.

Again, no. I'll tell you what is win/win for the mafia: people keeping silent about what they think. Let's have it, McDohl. Who's your top 5?

Glibness aside, I think the points I made stand, since you can't seem to refute them. I'm going to be very wary of those who endorse this...

...But I will play your game, Nich, since you're right about mafia taking advantage of the quiet. If it gets a bullet in my head, then so be it. It's out of my hands.

Alpha Werewolf
Spoony Gundam
Nich
Byron
VorpalEdge

Kylie
03-04-2010, 09:05 PM
I'm not accusing anyone of anything. When I do, it'll be in bold. :) We're just having a conversation here.

If you're leaning towards me, where do I stand in your top 5?

Fair enough! Right now? I'd say four. I'm reading back through and figuring it out. I'll have them here right quick.

vaterite
03-04-2010, 10:04 PM
Shit, you're right. My apologies, vaterite. Still, my point stands.

No worries. Since you asked, and since I'm going to bed, I'll give you a list. In addition to you (Nich), and obviously Spoony Gundam and Alpha Werewolf, I find Loki and Epithet suspicious due to their relative silence.

Kylie
03-04-2010, 10:05 PM
All right, my top 5.

I'm suspicious of DarkBlueFlannel, Aeonus, Epithet, Nich, and Torgo. This says nothing of plenty of other players that have said nothing, or close to nothing, besides the occasional flavor text, and a single vote. I REALLY don't feel like I'm getting enough info, and at least with Shinji there's a record of restricted hours.
Plenty of other people are suspicious, but we're talking about one person (Epithet) who has done nothing but vote Marion to death and suggest that people who defended themselves were worth suspicion. I wonder if he would defend himself.

DemoWeasel
03-04-2010, 10:16 PM
I REALLY don't feel like I'm getting enough info, and at least with Shinji there's a record of restricted hours.

Arting definitely takes a long time and demands my constant attention, but I'm trying to put more effort into playing this time than I did last time.

I usually base my suspicions on how bloodthirsty a player is, but since the vote on Marion was unanimous, it's a little difficult to say who I see as the most bloodthirsty players. Hopefully as the day goes on I'll be able to gather enough info to add some substance to any accusations I can make.

DemoWeasel
03-04-2010, 10:31 PM
Shinji, while we've got you here and (no offense) assuming you've been paying enough attention to make one, can we get your top 5 list?

I haven't been paying much attention to this thread today so I don't really have a strong enough suspicion of enough people to make a Top 5 list.

I'm also not very good at scrutinizing every little thing people say!

dwolfe
03-04-2010, 10:40 PM
Just checking in to make sure a lynch wasn't in progress without me. Too beat to come up with theories, and nothing so far struck me as worth discussion.

I've got no top 5 because, honestly? I have no clue yet. Some people are very talkative, some have posted just once maybe, and I've got no idea what it means. I highly recommend the quiet people post a little more if they have anything useful to contribute, or they're just dead weight.

I just hope to survive another day. Too soon by a couple days to actually suggest lynching no one, though. Wizard need information, badly.

Alpha Werewolf
03-04-2010, 10:56 PM
Scum is slang for mafia.

My top 5:

1. SpoonyGundam: I've outlined this.
2. ShinjiFox: see 3
3: Loki: see 4
4: Torgo: All of these are inactive, never post content, and chime in just for surefire lynches. I don't like it.
5: Byron: I still can't be sure, but he's there.

I'd like some more opinions about the SG case.

DemoWeasel
03-04-2010, 10:58 PM
All of these are inactive, never post content, and chime in just for surefire lynches. I don't like it.

We've only had one lynch?

Rai
03-04-2010, 11:14 PM
So much for getting digests done. Though it seems someone else took up the work. Thanks Vorpal! You can buy all the cabbages you want.

And since I'm here, and about to pass out, and since it'll come to this anyway, my top five suspects in no particular order:

SpoonyGundam - This is likely just tragic happenstance, but Marion singled you out when he agreed with you. While I would normally be more than willing to pass this off as just a random agreement, he turned out to be mafia. What's more, he turned out to be pretty terrible at hiding that mafia-ness. I can see him agreeing with compatriots and whatever it is they do. Additionally, killing dtsund could be an attempt to build yourself up as a Comb Stranger figure, and we all saw how well that worked out last time.

Byron - Again, playing off a Marion connection. Here, though, it was after your vote that made him switch his to lynching himself. Actually, technically, it was after DarkBlueFlanel, but the time difference between the posts is small enough that he could have been working on it for a while. At this point, Marion probably either got fed up and just decided to roll the dice on people assuming he was innocent, or he decided to follow the lead of someone on his team. Hopefully the former, though I'm not necessarily letting go of the latter.

Epithet - Your comment about preferring to choose Alpha Werewolf for a lynch "because he was farther along (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693197&postcount=87)" isn't terribly good logic for choosing (or not choosing) anyone! Especially on page three, when some actual discussion had happened.

As for the last two of my list, I haven't really sussed out any prime suspects. I suppose I could just say Loki and Shinji (who is now DemoWeasel apparently?), but both of them proved to be... rather wild cards in the previous game. More input playing would be nice. And it should be noted that while there are only two names in this list, there are a few others whose activity is limited that I'm wary of.

Alpha Werewolf
03-04-2010, 11:21 PM
All that, and yet, there's this (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693191&postcount=86). Marion's big plan to clear his name involved saying "Uhhh, lynch that guy first! Then if he's not Mafia, I'm not either!" Marion was dumb, but not SO dumb that he'd hang the question of his own guilt onto a guilty party--one who we now know he'd be in a position to know their guilt or innocence.
Things is, we've estabilished that Marion's a troll. I can't trust observations made directly onto his posts - what if he did that to make sure he'll take another scum down with him?

SpoonyGundam
03-04-2010, 11:34 PM
AW seems to be accusing SG of posts he didn't make, and using the vaguely McCarthy-esque "This is what scum do. You look like scum" rebuttal, and lines like "If leaving mafia alive is bad, but you're not sure that Marion's trolling makes him a mafioso, doesn't it follow logically that you're not sure we should lynch Marion?" It doesn't follow logically. Even if he's not sure that Marion is Mafia, there are plenty of reasons to be sure we should lynch Marion -- among other things, that killing game-disrupting trolls is good, a reason previously mentioned.

This is what bothers me about AW's posts, to the point where I don't even really think he's reading what I'm saying sometimes. And it seems like he tries to make himself out to be some kind of untouchable superman expert werewolf player every time he posts and we should all listen to what he says because there is no way a mafia would pose as an experienced player and try to lead people around, or maybe that's just me. That's not to say bringing up past experience is bad, but bringing it up as often as he does just reeks of overcompensating and is incredibly suspicious to me.

Like here:

I don't think anything is too risky, if it works. We had a player claim Doctor (pretty much an Angel) and go uncountered, and then the game ended in a state where everybody was town - impossible. Turned out he was scum, and there was no Doctor (very uncommon!).

That's great. What was the point of that? Announcing a role in a game where the roles are not known at the start is nowhere near as risky as the tactic you're accusing me of. There is one strategy that offers a legitimate reason to not kill a citizen, and there is another that offers no concrete reason at all. It's not even remotely similar. Why even bring it up?

And while I'm at it, here:

I'm not worried about any targets my activity may have painted on me. However, I would like a nice long list from everybody of who they suspect, tommorow.

If you think I'm mafia, and you apparently have since the first time I posted, why were you not worried about painting any targets on yourself? The only possibilities I can think of is that you're trying to imply that you're an angel or that you know that you're going to survive the night simply because you're mafia and you aren't going to kill yourself.

In fact, I'm going to go ahead and second vaterite and accuse Alpha Werewolf. Because of the above and because I just don't want to deal with this the entire game. If I have to do a back and forth between someone, I'd rather it be with someone who actually reads what I'm saying and doesn't just type a wall of text that amounts to little more than "Nuh uh. You're mafia. My experience playing this game with different rules and people says so."

If he gets lynched and is innocent, I encourage the investigator to investigate me. If I get lynched and am innocent, do the same for him.

Or I guess you can say you're the angel and we can put that to the test.

Top 5:
Alpha Werewolf
Epithet
Shinji
Torgo
Loki

The main ones that I'm concerned with are the top two. Epithet moreso than the other quiet people because when I looked at the list of players a few minutes ago, I went "Wait, Epithet is playing this game?" And I guess being so under the radar that you're not even on the radar is reason enough to be suspicious.

So my final analysis so far of Spoony is: I don't think you're a mafioso, SG, but for heaven's sake stop saying such appallingly suspicious things.

I'll stop when I'm dead.

But seriously, I thought you got me Nich. I wasn't saying "Woah, let's stop killing the shit out of Marion." A dead troll is better than a live troll regardless of what they are, and I was just saying that I wouldn't be surprised if Marion was actively trolling at that point rather than just playing incompetently.

Things is, we've estabilished that Marion's a troll. I can't trust observations made directly onto his posts - what if he did that to make sure he'll take another scum down with him?

No, Nich's observations are probably right.

I think you were asleep at the time it all happened, but at that point some people were willing to give Silent Noise the benefit of the doubt and were entertaining the idea that Marion was just a troll. Now we all know that Marion was actually just Silent Noise, and what I know about Silent Noise tells me that he was honestly probably trying to legitimately play the game.

Just not very well.

Like everything else he does.

Merus
03-04-2010, 11:55 PM
HEY GUYS IT'S A VOTE TALLY

(9 required to lynch)

SpoonyGundam: 1
Alpha Werewolf (http://http://toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=696803&postcount=198)

Alpha Werewolf: 1
vaterite (http://http://toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=697219&postcount=217)
SpoonyGundam (http://www.toastyfrog.com/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=697652&postcount=252) (sorry!)

I have Opinions on the whole Marion thing; I don't think it's malicious, per se. I would rather people not discuss it, though; drama is boring.

SpoonyGundam
03-05-2010, 12:00 AM
Hey man, I included my accusation in bold up there and everything.

But anyway, now that I think about it, I'd like to bring up AW's reason for voting to lynch Marion.

He said he didn't see a reason to accuse Marion again. (http://www.gamespite.net/talkingtime/showpost.php?p=693843&postcount=154)

And went and did it anyway, with his only reason being to get a unanimous vote. Most other people at least attempted to make some sort of vague reason why they wanted him out. I think AW's was the only one that was literally just a "me too."

Phantoon
03-05-2010, 12:33 AM
Hey Phantoon, I'm combining through the thread again to compile my thoughts and came across this bit, which I wanted to ask you to summarize for us. (I did read the Game 1 thread, but as should be self-evident by now, my memory is laughably poor and I can't remember how this particular move went down. I do want a better understanding of what happened then and how it applies to our situation now.)

(Also, give us your top 5 suspects.)

With pleasure. Comb Stranger and Merus had a bit of a tiff on day 2. It bubbled on and off for much of the day which ended with dwolfe being lynched. That night the Mafia came for Comb Stranger (but Lucas foiled it) and the next day Merus came under a load of pressure. It was a visible and obvious disagreement. I realised that the Mafia hoped that they'd get Merus killed with the added suspicion this placed on him.

This thing with dtsund is not the same at all. It's one post, pretty much. And the Mafia know that people who played the last game are playing now where Merus was pretty much out of suspicion until Brick definitively cleared him later.

I also don't buy this "it's a risky tactic" nonsense. The Mafia are heavily outnumbered and Marion made it worse. Last game the Mafia pretty much didn't put a foot wrong beyond how Ruik presented himself as the Oracle and they still lost. They didn't do anything risky. As I see it, the Mafia have to put their necks out to stand any chance of winning unless they get very lucky indeed.

My suspicion list:

Spoony Gundam: The reasons listed above. Marion could have put him forward and pleaded the "But I found you Mafia" defence, possibly? It's difficult to be sure what he was trying to do there.

Byron: For the reasons Nich has gone through. Interestingly, Spoony Gundam isn't on his list.

The remaining three aren't very serious as we don't have much to go on.

dwolfe: metagamey reasons are the only ones for this - he was really active in game 1 and there isn't much here now. Of course he got himself lynched last time so that's probably the reason.

darkblueflannel: posts 79 and 83

Vorpal Edge?

Torgo
03-05-2010, 12:45 AM
inactive, never post content, and chime in just for surefire lynches. I don't like it.
I'm quite positive you're trying to get a reaction out of me in order to gauge me, but that is all awfully disingenuous at best, and outright lying at worst, which just really doesn't fly in thread where we can all go back, read, and quote everything, especially so early in the game. It's kind of difficult to make a case for any of those things on only the second day. I can't and won't speak for Shinji or Loki, but why the three of us and not Epithet? He's posted as little as myself, and absolutely nothing at all today.

I'm mildly wary of your insistence for suspect picks as well, for the reasons McDohl outlined. However, since I'm giving the Nich the benefit of the doubt for the time being, for reasons I previously outlined, I'll give it up. Though Nich, please post yours soon. I'm eager to see what you've got.

List-o-rama:
Alpha Werewolf - I may just be knee-jerkin' it from having the finger pointed at myself, but I don't exactly appreciate the tone of his posts. His cherry-picking of quiet candidates to cast aspersions on does not sit well with me, nor does "I'm so pro guys" attitude.

SpoonyGundam - More because of his eagerness to get things rolling to the night phase then anything else.

Epithet - Quiet, and despite posting less then myself (and others) somehow escapes Alpha's scrutiny.

I'm not ready to make any accusations yet (I'm such a flake amirite, Alpha?), but that's where my list stands at the moment. I need to reread again to see if anything else comes up.

McDohl
03-05-2010, 01:20 AM
Everything's going according to plan...

...And me. I may as well admit that I'm going to post mine last (The Plan calls for it), and because of that (and how shady it seems)...

If there is a meme that has ever been more appropriate...

http://www.itadakiproject.com/justasplanned.jpg

...don't let me down here, Nich.

SpoonyGundam
03-05-2010, 01:23 AM
Last game the Mafia pretty much didn't put a foot wrong beyond how Ruik presented himself as the Oracle

?

Are we thinking of the same game here?

I've mentioned this before, but the mafia fucked up royally early on, and admitted as much. The main reason they didn't kill Brickroad and/or Merus on an early turn is because they didn't want interest in the game to die out. Killing either of them would have radically changed the direction of the game simply because it would eliminate an intelligent, vocal player. Those are the best kinds of kills to make. It wouldn't be incredibly risky either, beyond the risk of running into an angel, so I don't know where your "Mafia has to stick their neck out" argument is coming from exactly. It's entirely possible for someone to just fly under the radar and kill off the vocal players.

If anyone playing this particular game qualified for that position, who would it be? Maybe the guy who ran the last game? With a bonus of the slight suspicion dtsund cast on me on the first day making me seem more suspicious. Zero risk, large reward. Especially when Nich (And I guess AW?) were asking for the angel's protection that night. This is a perfectly sensible move, even if I don't get lynched in the end.

But, if you turn it around to me being a mafia, it becomes a much larger risk. Implicating me and making it more probable that I'd be killed by either the town or vigilante for something that could have waited until the next day or two when suspicion cools off of me a little? I don't think the payoff is large enough for me to logically give that serious consideration of I was to make the choice.

Phantoon
03-05-2010, 02:13 AM
No, the reason they cocked up by not killing Brick was that he was the Inspector. As a civilian he was no threat as he didn't get a single Mafioso. I don't think Merus did either. The Mafia in the last game were literally the last under suspicion. If the Inspector had've been Eddie or one of their other successful hits they would have probably won.

Alpha Werewolf
03-05-2010, 02:19 AM
My time is short, I'll try to fit everything in.

I do, in fact, have Epithet on my list, as well as Flannel. I could only fit three others, so I put the people who were the least active.

I do not expect you guys to blindly trust me. Rather, I invite you to find holes in my logic and accusations. This is my playstyle, explaining everything, and I feel obligated to give you knowledge. I'm not trying to spread an "I'm so pro" attitude here, honest.

Nich's explanation of Silent Noise being Marion sounds right to me. In fact, with that we pretty much clear SG - I wouldn't be confident, but that makes him a very scummy townie in my book. I also liked some of his reponses. I retract my vote for SpoonyGundam.

My example was very important. It is common in the board I keep mentioning, to host "Basic" games for new people. The game I mentioned was one, and they genrally run on a Cop-Doc-Roleblocker structure. Not having a Doc was very different. The claim was highly dangerous.

My suspect list changes thus: SG moves to the bottom, no other changes. I'm going to investigate Epithet and Byron in depth later.

Torgo, saying "But Epithet is suspicious too!" is a shaky thing at best. I've got my eye on you.

Torgo
03-05-2010, 02:41 AM
I do, in fact, have Epithet on my list, as well as Flannel. I could only fit three others, so I put the people who were the least active.
Fair enough. I suppose I could argue the point further, but I get what you're driving at and will let it go for the time being. All I'm saying is that it's a bit early to start throwing out claims of people being bandwagon jumpers and such.

We can totally agree that the quieter amongst us be needin' to get some words up in here though. I wouldn't mind hearing a little more from Loki, Epithet, and Shinji.

Aeonus
03-05-2010, 06:50 AM
Still waiting to hear from Aeonus,

I've already listed SG and Epithet (though the recent arguments have cooled my suspicion of SG considerably). And I'm suspicious of people playing their cards close to their chest: Loki, Specbebop, DarkBlueFlannel, dwolfe.

So my top five would be:
1. Epithet
2. dwolfe
3. DarkBlueFlannel
4. Specbebop
5. Loki

(But the ordering from 2-5 is pretty much arbitrary).

I'll tell you who's not on my list, but deserve special mention: Alpha Werewolf and Nich. I think these two are on the up-and-up, because I follow and agree with their logic, but if either/both of them are mafia, they pose a big threat by leading discussion

Loki
03-05-2010, 08:43 AM
This thread always gets busy when I'm at work or asleep. |=(

I'm not trying to be quiet and secretive. It's just my way I guess. I prefer to read other people's opinions and post only when I have something worthwhile to say. Look at my post count, I've been at TT since the beginning and yet only 2700 posts. I'm not trying to be meta-gamey here, just trying to explain why I haven't posted a lot. But if the people demand I post more, post more I will.

Here's my suspicions:

Alpha Werewolf: Nich's defense of SpoonyGundam makes a hell of a lot of sense. Why would Marion (mafia) use Gundam's innocence as a defense if Gundam was also mafia? Even while desperate to stay alive I don't think Marion would throw another mafia under the bus when there were so many nice citizens to choose from. This completely clears Spoony in my eyes. Likewise, AW's strong accusation of him feels antagonistic and hot-headed. Yes, yes, I know he changed his opinion on Spoony but that doesn't mean he isn't canny and saw that continuing to go after Spoony at this point was paint him mafioso more than ever. I just don't trust the guy is what I'm saying. Plus he's all like "people who don't post are mafia!" all the time. Yes people who don't post a lot naturally fall under suspicion but there is a real world out there and not everyone can play all the damn time. I like to take that into consideration. If he's mafia throwing suspicion on the players who are most suspicious because they haven't said a lot seems like a fine tactic to me. And I know it's a completely arbitrary point but his use of "scum" bothers me. I don't know what it's supposed to mean beyond "maybe a mafia maybe" but he's using it as if it was a tangible thing we could pick out of people's posts. "Oh, that phrase was very scummy." Maybe I'm just an idiot for not catching it or being able to parse out what he's trying to say. But using it confuses the point and another good tactic for mafia would be to confuddle every one up.

What it boils to down to is this: I don't trust AW. His actions haven't given me any reason to believe he has the good will of the citizens at mind. He seems manipulative and forceful. At the risk of being labeled a bandwagon jumper I ACCUSE ALPHA WEREWOLF.


The following aren't in any order:

Nich: Ehh... not really. But he's been the player most in a leadership role. Remember in Mafia Game 1 where people said that if Brickroad had been Mafia than the citizens were screwed because he had played them so well. I'm wary of this. If Nich is mafia he's got us all in a great position. Call me paranoid but I don't want to get caught with my pants down.

Epithet: There's only posting a little and then there's not posting at all. Please pipe up, Eppy.

Aeonus/Byron: These guys make good arguments but there's just something in their posts that feels off. I don't have any examples but they ring false for me. I want to keep a close eye on them and see what they do.


I agree that people who aren't posting a lot need to post more (I'll do my best!). But again, I honestly can't bring myself to seriously suspect them. I'd rather go after someone who has posted something weird (AW, Aeonus) than someone who's only posted a little but everything they have is solid.

VorpalEdge
03-05-2010, 08:49 AM
1. Aeonus
2. Nich
3. Alpha Werewolf
4. SpoonyGundam
5. Byron

Justifications: 1 was previously covered and nobody agreed, so I'll let it drop for now. I will say, however, that you guys seem to be treating posts that call for more discussion as sacrosanct regardless of context. As for 2:

I may as well admit that I'm going to post mine last (The Plan calls for it)

3 because he seems really bloodthirsty nowadays, esp. with "scum". 4 because of current discussion, 5 would be higher but I can't get over how thorough his post accusing Marion was.

Note that none of my suspicions past 2 are very strong, esp. after I said that I didn't see much value in day 1 discussion. And here you guys are, working with it. I can't decide if you're all crazy or if I was wrong. In any case, I'm content to sit back and keep my eyes open (and on Nich) for now.

dwolfe
03-05-2010, 09:18 AM
I've already listed SG and Epithet (though the recent arguments have cooled my suspicion of SG considerably). And I'm suspicious of people playing their cards close to their chest: Loki, Specbebop, DarkBlueFlannel, dwolfe.

I'm absolutely playing my cards close to the chest this time around. Being open and honest last time not only got me killed, it shook the Citizens up big time. Don't want to do that again. If I have a good idea I think I can convince people of I'll share it, but I'm not going to just share theories to get picked over any more.

I've been doing my own analysis, won't explain it yet. The 5 are in alphabetical order:

darkblueflannel
demonweasel
mcdohl
phantoon
rei

Also, I'm not so sure nich is mafia as much as I worry that if he IS mafia, he's both fishing for our power roles and going to derail us if/when he dies, as he's been acting like our leader. Having a second person try to step up is a potential suicide move for that person (see me, brickroad, merus last game).

But he's getting results, so I'm going to suggest nich name someone to take over 'leading' in case he does die.

McDohl
03-05-2010, 09:42 AM
I'll tell you who's not on my list, but deserve special mention: Alpha Werewolf and Nich. I think these two are on the up-and-up, because I follow and agree with their logic, but if either/both of them are mafia, they pose a big threat by leading discussion

So, you think these two bothare on the "up and up", even though you're fully aware that they might be mafia and the threat they pose as being the most vocal?

Interesting statement.

Aeonus
03-05-2010, 09:51 AM
Did I misuse the phrase "on the up and up"? I think they're citizens. That's what I meant by it. If I'm wrong, if I'm being fooled, then they're mafia, and they're more dangerous than the quieter mafia. But I don't think they've done anything worth much suspicion yet.

Kylie
03-05-2010, 09:54 AM
You've got a really big Plan going here, Nich. It involves everybody telling you what they are afraid of, before you tell them who you suspect, just so that we can participate in the Plan, presumably.

I'll go through the lists again when they're done, but so far it looks like the LEAST-suspect people are Rai, vaterite, and V-E. I generally trust these folks, which is irrational, but there you go. You're asking us to trust in you essentially sight-unseen, and we're doing it. I hope your plan is a good one, but I also hope it has some proviso to prevent us from waltzing into a mafialand plot. Having one person essentially "In Charge" of the game is a chance that the bad guys would absolutely kill for. Even if you aren't mafia, this is dangerous, and I hope you've taken that into consideration.

McDohl
03-05-2010, 10:04 AM
Did I misuse the phrase "on the up and up"? I think they're citizens. That's what I meant by it. If I'm wrong, if I'm being fooled, then they're mafia, and they're more dangerous than the quieter mafia. But I don't think they've done anything worth much suspicion yet.

Oh, yeah, you used it right.

I just think it's kind of amusing how, in the same breath, you try to exonerate both individuals while acknowledging that they might be mafia. I said from the get-go (albeit kind of jokingly) that I don't trust anyone. I don't get how them posting more means that they're clear in your eyes; especially since you also acknowledge that both could just be mafia playing it up.

It's a very revealing statement.

Aeonus
03-05-2010, 10:34 AM
McDohl, I don't even know what you're trying to get at. That they might be mafia and if so are in a position to do significant harm should be obvious to everyone. It follows from the rules and how discussion works. I only mentioned it because otherwise I sound like I trust them completely, but I don't.

I've agreed with their logic and analyses so far, so that's why I think they're citizens. Though I am very interested in seeing where Nich goes with this exercise. They don't appear to have anything to hide. Meanwhile, other people post sparingly, writing only low-information posts and seeming like they have something to hide. That's why I am more suspicious of quiet people than the louder ones.

Also I really hate grouping AW and Nich together constantly through this argument because it's two separate independent judgements, and they have significantly different posting styles. And grouping people together like that may influence people to see them as being unified when they aren't.

SpoonyGundam
03-05-2010, 11:58 AM
No, the reason they cocked up by not killing Brick was that he was the Inspector. As a civilian he was no threat as he didn't get a single Mafioso. I don't think Merus did either. The Mafia in the last game were literally the last under suspicion. If the Inspector had've been Eddie or one of their other successful hits they would have probably won.

Yeah, you're really, really wrong here.

They had no idea he was the investigator until it was too late, so that's not why they screwed up. It was obvious from the first day that Brick would end up being the leader of the game if left alone, even if he didn't have the greatest accuracy in the world. Being the investigator helped him accomplish his goal of unifying the town, but it was hardly the only factor at work. You would have lost much, much more if Brick died than if most other players as the investigator died.

My reasoning behind why the mafia killed dtsund is as follows:

Two of the other primary targets (Nich and AW) were calling for angels. Nich was probably the most threatening target, but they couldn't realistically attack him. dtsund is an experienced player, who ran the last game, so he could potentially become a Brickroad. In addition, his death could cast doubt on another player that already had doubt on him because of Marion to try and throw people off of their trail. But if it doesn't make me incredibly suspicious, that's fine too. They'll still have gotten rid of a potential threat.

I just do not think the move makes sense to make if I was a mafia. dtsund may have become a leader in the future, but I had no reason to believe he would from what he posted during the first day. If it was incredibly obvious that he was going to organize everyone eventually, then yes, incriminating a mafia member to get rid of him makes sense. But it just doesn't seem worth it otherwise, even if there's only a little extra doubt cast on me. Especially when the mafia goes into the first night phase with one member already killed. There are other just as good candidates for a hit, even with two of them protected.

If anyone has any other interpretation of why dtsund was killed, feel free to chime in, but try to think of why the person you're accusing would have killed the people you're accusing him of. Could you give me an actual reason why it would be more beneficial to put a target on me for both the town and vigilante to see than it would be to just kill someone else?

Alpha Werewolf
03-05-2010, 02:10 PM
Loki:
Nich's defense of SpoonyGundam makes a hell of a lot of sense. Why would Marion (mafia) use Gundam's innocence as a defense if Gundam was also mafia? Even while desperate to stay alive I don't think Marion would throw another mafia under the bus when there were so many nice citizens to choose from. This completely clears Spoony in my eyes.
Likewise in mine. Understand that until Nich posted otherwise I believed Marion to be a troll, and it would be perfectly natural for a troll to make sure we take down as many scums as he can cause us to with ihm. One Nich posted that he was Silent Noise, it clicked and I disengaged my accusation.

Likewise, AW's strong accusation of him feels antagonistic and hot-headed. Yes, yes, I know he changed his opinion on Spoony but that doesn't mean he isn't canny and saw that continuing to go after Spoony at this point was paint him mafioso more than ever.
I call bullshit. You said the SG was completely cleared in your eyes, and yet retracting my accusation paints me as mafia? Are you unwilling to see that I could also, you know, actually jhave changed my mind?

I just don't trust the guy is what I'm saying. Plus he's all like "people who don't post are mafia!" all the time. Yes people who don't post a lot naturally fall under suspicion but there is a real world out there and not everyone can play all the damn time. I like to take that into consideration.
I'm not saying that people who don't post are mafia. I'm saying that people who don't post should damn well post more, because a nonposting town is only slightly better than a dead one.

If he's mafia throwing suspicion on the players who are most suspicious because they haven't said a lot seems like a fine tactic to me.
Agreed. IF I'm scum. If I'm town, then it's very logival to suspect suspicious people, wouldn't you say?

And I know it's a completely arbitrary point but his use of "scum" bothers me. I don't know what it's supposed to mean beyond "maybe a mafia maybe" but he's using it as if it was a tangible thing we could pick out of people's posts. "Oh, that phrase was very scummy." Maybe I'm just an idiot for not catching it or being able to parse out what he's trying to say. But using it confuses the point and another good tactic for mafia would be to confuddle every one up.
I already explained this, man. Scum=Mafia. It's the exact same thing, not "maybe mafia".

Your case against me is basically:
1. My accusation of SG.
2. My actions against inactive town.
3. My use of the phrase "scum".

Is that right? If so, you'll find all the answers above.

As for me being bloodthirsty: I'm trying to weed out the scum from the town. Am I supposed to ask politely? No, the only way to catch scum is to go scumhunting. That's what I'm doing.

I am not, and was not, calling for Angel defense. Just to make this clear.

Loki
03-05-2010, 02:17 PM
As for me being bloodthirsty: I'm trying to weed out the scum from the town. Am I supposed to ask politely? No, the only way to catch scum is to go scumhunting.

God that is so annoying.

Alpha Werewolf
03-05-2010, 02:23 PM
I'm taking a look at Epithet here, and lookie! He has ONE post of any substance!
Hmm, so far we have two lynch accusations on the table: Alpha Werewolf and SpoonyGundam. If I were to consider the merits of lynching them, I would probably go with Alpha Werewolf, since we're farther along with lynching him and I can see how a non-mafia poster could make SpoonyGundam's "incriminating" comment. I think I'll hold off on accusing for now, and see what happens.

One thought I had is that someone who makes strong attempts at self-preservation could be mafia or a special role. Of course, even if someone claims to be a special role, there are roles like Inspector and Oracle where it would be highly difficult to confirm such a claim.

Emphasis mine.

Epithet, give us some content. You have THREE posts. THREE.

Epithet
03-05-2010, 02:40 PM
I'm taking a look at Epithet here, and lookie! He has ONE post of any substance!


Emphasis mine.

Epithet, give us some content. You have THREE posts. THREE.

Ah, I definitely have to admit that that post was dumb. I suppose I was thinking that the best course of action on the first day was to go ahead and decide on one person to lynch arbitrarily, as this was before the whole Marion debacle came to the fore, and as I thought we would get quite a lot of discussion done on this day even if we went ahead and lynched at random. It was pretty awful logic.

Honestly, even though I've read the entire thread, I haven't got anything as far as a "top five suspects" list goes. I do feel somewhat nervous about Nich's "town leader" role on the first day as, if he's mafia, his knowledge of Marion's role could have led him to the conclusion that he would be a liability sooner than his stupid behavior would lead others to conclude that he was mafia. It's very unlikely, but still a possibility.

McDohl
03-05-2010, 05:29 PM
So, tl;dr version:

Your big plan is that everyone who has suspected you, AW, and Spoony Gundam is a mafioso? I am reading that right?

Interesting!

VorpalEdge
03-05-2010, 05:32 PM
lol what? you can't be fucking serious

I accuse Nich

VorpalEdge
03-05-2010, 05:34 PM
And yes, I am working on a longer post.

SpoonyGundam
03-05-2010, 05:52 PM
There is one thing you're neglecting to take into account, Nich. One of the main problems with these lists is that they weren't all made at the same time.

For example, the whole troll thing was cleared up at the point that I posted my list, so my name was either demphasized or dropped completely from several of the lists afterward. AW even revised his.

This might incriminate Vorpal Edge more, by the logic you presented, but it doesn't necessarily mean that McDohl and vaterite would have the same list now that they did when they first posted. Of course, we can't really ask for a new list at this point, now that everyone knows what you're looking for.

Epithet
03-05-2010, 06:27 PM
Accuse me all you want. The beauty of my plan is that the Mafia can't do much to counter it. The day you lynch me is the day everyone finds out that I really am a citizen, and then everyone on my list is in line for a lynching. Again, I have to warn the vigilante against killing anyone on my list: I want them dead and I want their roles known. If I'm right, keep going. If I'm wrong, you'll know that I made all four accusations in good faith and can decide amongst yourselves whether the rest of my list is worth following up on.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but there are a few things I'm wondering about with this "grand plan" of yours, and I'm not just trying to pigeonhole it because it (rightly) casts me into suspicion. (As a matter of fact, given my earlier posts I'm probably the only one on the list who deserves to have any serious suspicion leveled against me.)

For one thing, why are you planning on staying in the game? If you wish to confirm absolutely that your accusations were made in good faith, the best thing to do would be to request your own lynching, which would confirm your innocence absolutely after the lynching. If you stay alive and we lynch one and then they turn out to be a citizen, you can just say, "Oh, I wasn't absolutely certain, I'm sure that the rest of my suspects are guilty," and stay alive while actively choosing who gets lynched without any absolute confirmation that they're mafia. Sounds like a pretty cushy position for a mafioso, eh? I'd be fine with this plan in spite of some other misgivings were it not for the fact that you're intent on staying alive.

Loki
03-05-2010, 06:28 PM
I agree that Nich, Spoony, and Alpha are the three most vocal and reasoned people right now. Your protection gambit makes a lot of sense, Nich, and I'm convinced Spoony isn't mafia because of the whole Marion thing. Still not sure about AW (though your rebuttal to my accusation was well put and logical my gut still doesn't trust you, what can I say? Sorry, buddy). And hiding as one of the foremost posters would be a great place for mafia to hide.

As for your list, Nich. I want to see defenses from these people. I'm not sure if the whole "they listed the trifectica therefor they are mafia" logic entirely flows but it's as good a starting point as any.

I'm all for calling off the vigilante. He's more likely to kill one of us than he is to bag a mafia member. He's better used when we have more than one good suspect in a day and as for day one we only had one very good suspect and no-one else. This, I suspect, is why he didn't off anyone last night.

Loki
03-05-2010, 06:30 PM
Not to put too fine a point on it, but there are a few things I'm wondering about with this "grand plan" of yours, and I'm not just trying to pigeonhole it because it (rightly) casts me into suspicion. (As a matter of fact, given my earlier posts I'm probably the only one on the list who deserves to have any serious suspicion leveled against me.)

For one thing, why are you planning on staying in the game? If you wish to confirm absolutely that your accusations were made in good faith, the best thing to do would be to request your own lynching, which would confirm your innocence absolutely after the lynching. If you stay alive and we lynch one and then they turn out to be a citizen, you can just say, "Oh, I wasn't absolutely certain, I'm sure that the rest of my suspects are guilty," and stay alive while actively choosing who gets lynched without any absolute confirmation that they're mafia. Sounds like a pretty cushy position for a mafioso, eh? I'd be fine with this plan in spite of some other misgivings were it not for the fact that you're intent on staying alive.

My if that isn't a hell of a suspicious thing to say.

McDohl
03-05-2010, 06:45 PM
As for your list, Nich. I want to see defenses from these people. I'm not sure if the whole "they listed the trifectica therefor they are mafia" logic entirely flows but it's as good a starting point as any.

I'm not sure how anyone on Nich's list is able to defend themselves, as you really defend yourself with how you vote. Anyone who votes to lynch the person ahead of them is signing their own death warrant, regardless of what that person actually is. If they vote against Nich, then Nich uses it as reinforcement as to what he says. It becomes self-fulfilling.

I'm not a mafioso, nor do I have a power role; I'm a citizen. I'm not sure what else is expected of me, so I'll just say, Nich, that I will vote how you want me to, as a token of good faith. If you want me to vote for vaderite or abstain, I will.

Torgo
03-05-2010, 06:48 PM
I agree with Loki about wanting to see defenses and rebuttals before we start laying out the accusations. I especially want to see Vorpal's logic for his sudden (and seemingly reactionary) accusation of Nich.

VorpalEdge
03-05-2010, 06:50 PM
Let me give some context for how I've been viewing the game up to this point.

I had been trusting Nich as much as one citizen could trust another, because he really did seem like a civvie. As he has so helpfully mentioned, he was first to accuse Marion among other things, and I did take note of that when writing up my digest. However, he just threw that goodwill in the trash. Let's now go through his Plan posts in more detail.

If I was a Mafioso, far from leading the charge to have Marion lynched, I'd have done whatever I could to stop it from happening.

Like the mafia did, right? Oh wait.

No one--not Aeonus, not me, no one--suggested what would have been the smart play for the Mafia: offer him up as a target for that night's vigilante action.

I find your crowing about how you didn't offer him up for a vigilante action very self-serving at best. If you had this idea at the time, why didn't you post a recommendation against a vigilante action? The day moved extremely quickly. The mafia didn't propose the idea themselves; it is quite likely that they (and/or you) didn't think of it until after he'd been strung up.


Anyway, with Marion's fate decisively agreed upon, I then requested an angel's protection due to my vocal status and frequent, reasoned posts. Every single element was in play for me to be protected last night; I can be as certain as it is possible for a non-angel to be that I had such protection.

If I was Mafia, I should have been hit last night.

I'm probably using this incorrectly, as I'm not going back through posts to check, but: Wine In Front of Me. If you think you'd have been accepted that easily after how brilliantly successful it was in Game 1, think again.

On to the culmination of his strategy. I'll let him speak for himself:


But lest you think I'm being egotistical here, I'm not going after everyone who put me on their top 5 list. Byron and Loki, for instance, named me as suspicious, for the fair enough reason that I was. I've been acting weird today and I don't deny it. Now you can see the reasons why.

No, I'm going after everyone who nominated the trifecta. ... Now then. Who among us is advancing all three of us for suspicion? Who wants us all lynched?

Why the hell are you equating suspicion with desire to lynch? There was maybe one person on my list that I would have voted to lynch. And even he/she defended himself well, making that less likely to happen had people decided to arbitrarily put that person up for a vote. As for everyone else, suspicions are just that: suspicions. Certainly not enough to lynch on.

Why yes, Nich, people will find people who've been accused more suspicious than people who've not had the chance to share that particular spotlight. You were looking for the trifecta, but try counting how many times your names appeared total compared to how many people were in the game. It's almost tautological. The same also goes for trying to take control of the game. Yes, that's going to be pretty suspicious. I hate to break it to you, but you wouldn't have been anywhere near my list if not for The Plan. You manufactured the results you wanted, by doing this big thing and then pointing at people when your name appeared on it.

Your name. Yes, yours. Reading your post, it's very obvious that you care most about yourself and your own status. Look at your first post. Alpha Werewolf/Spoony Gundam's names barely appear on it. Look at your second post. You had to go out of your way to say "But lest you think I'm being egotistical here...". This isn't about AW or SG. This is about you.

[Alpha Werewolf] didn't seem to desire protection for reasons I haven't figured out yet, but I think the Mafia believes they can't hit him, yet they need him gone anyway--he's as much a leader figure as I am.

Bullshit. Who's the guy who first accused Marion? We easily remember this, as you spent so much time talking about it in your post. You. Who's the guy who crafted this brilliant plan that the mafia can't respond to? You. What has AW done? Mostly gone after SG, only to have SG been exonerated out from under him. What has SG done? Not much either. No, this is about you, and you're taking those two along as baggage. And it's not like you did all that much with Marion, either. He hadn't yet mentioned metagaming when you accused him (post 75 vs... 84?), and at the time Alpha Werewolf had a bunch of accusations against him. He was clearly going to get accused by someone or other anyways just for being aggressive, so I'm now willing to believe that your post served as a warning for him in much the same manner as demonkoala/epithet last game, but if he'd softened up there was no reason to believe he would've been lynched at the time. It's not a risk I would have taken in the mafia's place all the same, but with you now trying to control the game I'm considering it.

Quite simply, you are either the inspector who wants to leverage your power into lynches without giving yourself away (and if this is you then you'd better damn well prove it), or you're mafia controlling the game (note that the vigilante can't kill you now either), or this is the dumbest plan ever. You are manufacturing suspicions on to yourself, and taking suspicions still present from a war between two people, and co-opting the into a power grab. This is bar none the most suspicious thing so far this game, and I do not buy this at all.

VorpalEdge
03-05-2010, 06:54 PM
typo fix: and co-opting them into a power grab.

SpoonyGundam
03-05-2010, 07:10 PM
For one thing, why are you planning on staying in the game? If you wish to confirm absolutely that your accusations were made in good faith, the best thing to do would be to request your own lynching, which would confirm your innocence absolutely after the lynching. If you stay alive and we lynch one and then they turn out to be a citizen, you can just say, "Oh, I wasn't absolutely certain, I'm sure that the rest of my suspects are guilty," and stay alive while actively choosing who gets lynched without any absolute confirmation that they're mafia. Sounds like a pretty cushy position for a mafioso, eh? I'd be fine with this plan in spite of some other misgivings were it not for the fact that you're intent on staying alive.

Suggesting that someone should kill you is an extraordinarily bad idea except in the most extreme situations, and this isn't one of them. This isn't like Brickroad going along with lynching himself to confirm the remaining three mafia.

If you're a citizen, of course you shouldn't suggest that someone lynch you. Why would you want the town to waste a valuable lynch on someone that you personally know is innocent? Especially when this game has less overall members, but more mafia members than the previous game?

It's understandable that you're hesitant to go along with this plan. I am too. But if you're going to criticize it, there are better points to raise than "Why wouldn't a civilian want to kill himself?"

Personally, I don't really think it's too much of a stretch that some or all of the people on Nich's list just has the trifecta there because we're the most vocal posters.

McDohl
03-05-2010, 07:15 PM
Then vote for vaterite. If the inspector is still out there somewhere, we can have you investigated tonight. If he keeps silent, we'll cross you off the list. It's not a perfect plan, since if dtsund or whoever's rubbed out tonight is the investigator and you're guilty, it's bad for us, but it's all I've got.

Very well.

I accuse vaterite.

VorpalEdge
03-05-2010, 07:23 PM
I'm only quoting this because of how ridiculous it is. If I'm the inspector trying to hide myself, I'd better prove that I'm the inspector?

You're right. That is pretty ridiculous. What I meant was, if you hadn't had a positive mafia id yet, you might want a way to present future ids without revealing yourself. But then, of course, you can't prove it now. Sucks to be you, I guess.

If you believe this, go back and read the thread again. Vaterite and McDohl are currently my top two suspects, and were also the first two people to respond. At that time, all I was posting was badgering people into giving us their suspicions.

Didn't stop you from mentioning it later on. And if you're curious, it took me a while to post because I'm on the east coast and went to bed at midnight.

I don't have anything for you.

I see. You'd better hope you've got something for others, though.

Rai
03-05-2010, 07:52 PM
Well, that's some plan. Very, very risky, because there's a pretty good chance that at least one of the listed are innocent. I mean, it does make sense to be wary of everyone, especially the people who want to be leaders.

That said, I do trust you Nich, even if I don't have much of a basis for doing so. I personally wonder if maybe Epithet would be a better lynch target, buuut I'm willing to play along. J'accuse Vaterite. Here's to hoping this play goes off well.

vaterite
03-05-2010, 07:53 PM
I have to say Nich, even apart from me being named, this "plan" of yours hasn't done anything to make you take your name off of my suspicious of list.

You know who has plans......cylons.

Epithet
03-05-2010, 08:10 PM
What's your reasoning here? If you picked up on something I missed that makes Epithet more suspicious than vaterite, I'm all ears.

Presumably it was my previous post where I voiced a few concerns about the plan. Of course, I'll still go along with it, even if it equals me getting lynched. I accuse vaterite, though I'll be perfectly willing to switch to accusing myself that's where things go.

vaterite
03-05-2010, 08:23 PM
Hello fellow citizens. I guess I should write out a defense post, since these little red lights are appearing on my chest.

Nich: I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt and just assume that you are bad at being a citizen, but right now I'm thinking you're probably mafia.

I was going to go back through the thread an analyze each one of Nich's posts.......but he posts a lot, and that seems like too much work. My wife and I want to watch Ponyo tonight. I'll just say that I included Nich's "top three" on my list, because they all seemed like they were trying to control the game. I'm a little wary of any one hand deciding our destiny. I added in some quiet folks because last round, when I was mafia, I tried my best to blend in. I don't think all three of SG, AW and Nich are mafia, but, hey they were (and still are) the "most suspicious". That's all that we were asked to do, not list five people we definitely wanted to lynch.

So here goes guys: since I know I am a citizen I am completely willing to sacrifice myself tonight, IF when I am found innocent you promist to lynch Nich tomorrow. When I'm gone, and he is we'd be down one citizen and one mafia, and that's OK with me. But hey, if you guys lynch me, no wimping out and letting this dude live. I'm a citizen so I know we're better off without his horribly flawed logic.

Rai
03-05-2010, 08:28 PM
What's your reasoning here? If you picked up on something I missed that makes Epithet more suspicious than vaterite, I'm all ears.

Mostly it's the fact that he's on my list whereas Vaterite isn't. Honestly, any accusation I make at this point likely isn't backed up by much more than a gut feeling. Putting together my list was rather difficult because I don't really have enough of anything together to actually feel 100% behind an accusation, which is about the only time I'll be proactive about something. I like checking other people's instincts and intuitions against my own.

That said, Epithet did suggest for you to lynch yourself to prove your plan works, which is to the mafia's advantage if you're a civvie. I haven't done the math, but we can't really afford to lose as many civilians this game as we could last game. Things are going to get very tight very quickly.

Ah, and another point I just thought of: I'm not entirely sold on your logic with regards to the mafia targeting. Yeah, if they had attacked you, we would probably mark you in the clear. On the other hand, you had explicitly asked for protection from the angels, and you've been one of the most active participants in the game. It would be rather stupid of the mafia to target you when there were 17 other perfectly viable targets.

Also! As a note to the civilians, for the love of god, don't be so quick to off yourselves. The only thing it really proves is that you secretly had a death wish. I know I'm far more willing to off someone when they say they're willing to go onto the chopping block. So please, don't follow Lucas' example from last game. Don't put yourself on the chopping block unless you really want out of the game.

Torgo
03-05-2010, 08:29 PM
While I'm inclined to agree with Rai that Epithet might be a better choice, I will defer to Nich's plan. Assuming he's being honest, I sincerely hope it works, otherwise it's not going to look good for a few of us, myself included.

I accuse vaterite.

Loki
03-05-2010, 08:31 PM
You know, I've never been suspicious of Vaterite. Every post he's made has been reasoned and logical. I don't feel just because he listed the big three is enough of a guilty action.

I don't accuse him.

vaterite
03-05-2010, 08:32 PM
Also! As a note to the civilians, for the love of god, don't be so quick to off yourselves. The only thing it really proves is that you secretly had a death wish. I know I'm far more willing to off someone when they say they're willing to go onto the chopping block. So please, don't follow Lucas' example from last game. Don't put yourself on the chopping block unless you really want out of the game.

I'll respond to this.

I'm not quite doing this, I'm offering to off myself in exchange for offing Nich. That's an even trade, one civilian for one mafia, which is a win in my book.

Rai
03-05-2010, 08:37 PM
I'll respond to this.

I'm not quite doing this, I'm offering to off myself in exchange for offing Nich. That's an even trade, one civilian for one mafia, which is a win in my book.

Well, if one has to go, that's not a terrible way to do it. But honestly, how can you be so sure that Nich is mafia? I'm not sold on that, and there's no way I'm agreeing to that deal. Unless you can give me conclusive proof that he is, I can't agree with that. Perhaps his logic is faulty for including anyone who voted for the "big 3", but that doesn't necessarily make him mafia.