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Destil
04-08-2010, 09:55 PM
Merus (Mar 3):
Mafia Game 2 East Speakeasy
Welcome to the Speakeasy! This little hideout will serve as your method of collaboration at night, as well as the place to nominate a player to be whacked.
I'll start a new section each game night; to share your thoughts, mouse under the existing text and click on the box that appears. You'll be able to pop your thoughts in. If you have any problems, let me know on the forum!
Day 1

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 5):
So how do we deal with the Silent Noise horseshit? what do i have to do to stay alive, or throw the scent off?

Garrison (Mar 5):
Okay, sorry, I knew someone was typing, I just didn't think to look up top. I say play it like SN was just paranoid or some shit. Merus also said something to the point of "day 2 will begin when all the special players are ready." I'm hoping someone reads into that as "not mafia". Other than that, I don't know man, it's hard to say the best course of actions.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 5):
yeah, no idea how this works.

Gamin (Mar 5):
It's highly likely that the inspector is checking shivam tonight. If so this could mean trouble for you. Also, keeping within character, I will remain very skeptical and assume that you are possibly mafia. But I'm not going to lead the charge unless other people push it.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 5):
god, what the hell was he thinking? and he claimed to be a good player, too

Garrison (Mar 5):
I don't mean to sound like an ass, but in all the time I've spent lurking TT, SN never came off as too smart. I knew it was bad news from the first notice that we were mafia.
And apparently I can't come up with a coherent sentence either.

Tock (Mar 5):
is there a way to just search the wave for new posts? technologyyyyy
I figure you only have two potential ways to play this:
1) "I'm just a citizen, SN was just an idiot". This may buy you a little time, if it goes over. If the Inspector's already looked at you, it won't last long. If the Inspector already wrote SN off and just assumed he was Mafia, you might get at least one extra night until you're checked for sure.
2) "I really am the Inspector, guys." More risky--the real Inspector should peg you as Mafia the second you make that claim. However, if Eddie returns and brings up his plan to use/check/manipulate SN's role, it might give us cover to keep you alive. If this works, it probably buys you at least two nights. If it doesn't, you're almost guaranteed Day Two lynchbait, though it may lure the Inspector out of hiding.
If people come out swinging against someone else at the start of Day Two, you might have a shot at flying under the radar. The problem is, you're also an obvious Vigilante target. You're in pretty much the worst possible position and it's a minor miracle we got Umby killed instead--note how Mafia West strung up Marion posthaste. Thanks, SN!
I honestly don't know the best way to play this from here, and it might be better if we don't know your plan anyway, since the five of us are going to have to keep our distance from you. I was with the crowd that was willing to let SN's replacement prove himself, so I'll try to screen as much as possible while remaining discreet. As noted below, though, I can't afford to be one of the last to turn on you, if that's where the discussion starts going. Sorry in advance.

Tock (Mar 5):
additional upside to Plan 2: part of Eddie's plan (if I remember correctly) was to have an Angel protect SN while we vetted his claim to be the Inspector. Since Alice is not considered a strong player, odds are she'll be asked to do this. What the rest of the group hopefully doesn't know is that we would then be free to night kill with impunity.
not necessarily saying we should proceed with Plan 2 (risk still outweighs the potential upside IMO), but if Eddie and friends want to make it happen, it presents some real opportunities.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 5):
I think that we can be certain that either Silent Noise was investigated, or that he was only not investigated because the real investigator is going to assume he is mafia. Plan 1 seems the best to me, because it seems really reasonable. If I were part of town I certainly would believe it-- this way only the real investigator will know and may try to push for Shivam's death and expose himself.
I doubt that the real investigator was making waves before SN was banned simply because if he had remained in the game as mafia he would surely have done something stupid. Now that Shivam is in the reigns the real deal is going to likely try to do something.
I think that Shivam's explanation of his work is a possible upside - see how the thread goes at first. I imagine that people are going to assume that you are going to out with your 'real' role; but maybe they won't. Either way, Shivam, your busyness will allow your not immediately clarifying out of the gate to not be suspicious.
If you do want to go for Plan 2 I think we should start thinking of developing an arc for your investigations. Maybe you could have investigated kaisel; unless that is far too convenient.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 5):
Either way, the real inspector is going to be a problem for shivam. If he plays the "I'm the inspector card" (I don't think he should play this card) The real inspector will just know, and it will be a very precarious illusion to maintain. We'd need to plan a whole nightly schedule of fake inspects, making sure to keep ourselves off of it until later, etc.
If he goes for citizen, there is a decent chance he can get away with it but is still a likely investigation target. Best we can do is argue for his innocence and hope the inspector buys it (assuming he didn't already inspect) or dies before he comes out.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
Good timing, me! So, do we have everyone on here?
oh jesus fuck it's in real time fuck shit oh my god
NO I AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH THIS AAAAAAARGH
Correction: do we have everyone besides silent noise on here

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
I'm not sure how this whole Wave deal works - is what I'm typing going through?
I'm Bodhi. I just set up an account today [Thanks Merus], if we are each typing in a separate box is there any easy way to get to see everyone at once?

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
Gotcha. I talked to Shivam and he's still interested in subbing in. And neither do I John HAHA PREEMPTED
(Yes it is)
We should be sure of our in-game names though because I don't know none o y'all.
Welcome!
I already have it all enabled. Also doing real-time conversations with multiple people and not in order is going to get difficult fast.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
We're the only ones that have talked so far.

Merus (Mar 3):
We do not. Also: I CAN SEE YOU TYPE
MWAHAHAHAHAHA

Merus (Mar 3):
I think everyone should be added, now, other than Silent Noise. If Silent Noise gets subbed out, Shivam already has a wave account, so I can drop him straight in.
Incidentally, Silent Noise really shouldn't have been the only player to be using aim.com email addresses. Stupid kid.

Merus (Mar 3):
For those people just joining, if you click "All" on the side there, then find "Profile", you can dick around with your settings so your display name is your TT name.

Merus (Mar 3):
Start new thingies down here, guys!

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
Alright, gotcha. So far the only people I can read are Merus and Paul. Alright, gotcha.
It is very likely I won't be able to get online until pretty late tomorrow. I think the first order of business should be to decide what to do about SN / Shivam.
As sad as it is, I was actually thinking about it all day. I suppose just about the best we can do is disassociate ourselves as much as possible.
Can we agree that if Shivam drops in the best approach is to play that SN was a freaked out citizen and try to draw the real inspector?

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
Oh god that's how that works. Got it.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
if SN comes back there's only so much we can do - he's gonna get strung up and we have go along with it.
If we vote no or even abstain it will look bad on us, but we have to be careful about looking TOO bloodthirsty. His being mafia will at the very least divert SOME suspicion from us, or not make us MORE suspicious.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
Shivam will have to play the "freaked out citizen card" and see how far he can take it. Even then we have to know that when it turns around and comes back to him, we can't be too reticent about stringing him up. That looks wicked suspicious when he turns out mafia.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
Agreed. Do you have any feeling on who to whack? I was thinking of some sort of second tier 'good' player - just to avoid whiffing. I don't really have a feel for anyone's role as of yet.
I don't think spineshark is a special role - if only because he seemed too eager to whack himself. But it might be worth offing him just to remove him from the pool.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
My current inclination has been Spineshark. yeah
Alice will be protected, which leaves one open angel - who will probably protect himself, Brick, or Eddie.
Possible diversion on that front - whack me, it doesn't matter I must just be a citizen! But he's a decently high-tier player, or at least, useful enough.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
That would be good fodder for future accusations. I already see dirt we could get on Destil and Traumadore.
Another possible angle would be to convince the town that Brick is an evil mastermind, like someone tried to do in thread already - but we'd have to push the right loudmouthy people delicately into doing it.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
Yeah, Trauma especially is juuuust suspicious enough to keep alive. Destil can work too.
And I, sadly, would just feel bad if we whacked Eddie so early again, and also want to see what he can do.
I was the strongest one against brick last time and it didn't take, possibly because he was to entrenched. If I did it again, I would be ignored or made to look suspicious. But someone else could - we should be careful, though, to make sure to have grounds, however flimsy, before we start. If we try to incriminate him off the bat it loks bad on us.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
I do think it is too early to have even flimsy made-up grounds - but I think that lynching Brick is oddly enough something that the game sort of WANTS to happen. They're just looking for a reason.
I agree - he's almost surely protected tonight.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
I could see it. I'm also thinking of Brick as a possible night kill for maybe day 3ish, too, just enough to keep the angels off him but not too long.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
That being said; my guess is that he's a citizen of no particular prominence. Also, I didn't see anywhere in the rules that Merus outlined a specific night length. Are we still working with 48 hours?

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
Agreed. Only suspicions I have atm besides lolalice are spineshark and Eddie for roles, and nothing much to base it on.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
I feel Traumadore could be a role, but I think we could get the town to kill him for us. I would have to look back over the thread - a lot of the pushing has already been done by us, actually.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
Yeah, we all seem to be on the heavy-contribution-citizen disguise, which could be good but could be bad. Last game it was good, because Brick and Merus actually survived. But they were wicked suspicious the whole time too.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
I think the only catch is that if one of us goes down we'll have to offer each other up.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
No doubt. The sacrifice is inevitable. And it'll probably be me first, depending on when the inspector comes out - unless something new comes up this game chances are it'll be Brick then me inspected early on.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
I do think one of our major advantages is having so many newbs - we are not likely to be investigated.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
Agreed. (Brb laundry)

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
I actually need to go soon as well, I just wanted to throw my two cents in and get a feel for where everyone is at, and most especially if there was anything that I did that stepped on anyone's toes or got in the way of their game. As for tonight, I would throw in my killing vote for someone like Spineshark or PouflerWheel [<-- less suspenseful when you can watch the pull happen] unless our comrades have any insight.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
I'd go for Pappy too in lieu of any power leads, although I'd probably lean Spineshark first for no specific reason. And yeah, I want to see where the others stand of course.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
That being said I think I'm going to head to bed - it will probably be pretty late before I can check in, but I can catch up pretty fast.
Same here -- I'm so amazed that so many people can interwebs from work.
So: to our compatriots: give us a nice pile of votes to come back to. =p

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 3):
I can't do google wave at work, so I can only be on from... whatever time it was about 1.5 hours ago. Oceanic time and all. I CAN check the forums though (now and then), so there's that anyway.
Anyway I'll check in later too to see if anyone else has popped in.
Word. Let's killing innocent tuscans!

Bodhitraveller (Mar 3):
That's it for me then - glad to be playing with you folks!

Gamin (Mar 3):
I'm just popping in to test this out, I won't be able to really contribute till after work today. Which will probably be in either 5 or 9 hours from now.

Gamin (Mar 3):
One thing that slightly troubles me is we probably shouldn't agree with eachother 100% on the forum, if we group ourselves like that, it becomes a little too obvious. If we could script a way where we fight eachother on something on the forum, like over someone else that seems suspicious, and shape the arguement between 2 people we want lynched, that would be awesome.

Tock (Mar 3):
It's me, Tock. oh god I don't know how Google Wave works
I'll be hanging around in here for pretty much the entire PST workday (i.e. for the next nine hours) so I'm happy to talk strategy with anyone who comes back. In the meantime I'm going to textdump my thoughts, apologies in advance.

Tock (Mar 3):
First off, people I currently think of as dangerous: Brickroad, LilSpriteX, kaisel, maybe Pappy and spineshark. I have a feeling that Sprite might have a role--don't know why I feel that, just a thang. Brick is obvious because he is a schemer and people follow him, but he's too obvious to go after on Night One. I also had a thought that Umby could have been a good player, but we managed to off him already so gg Mafia.
Possible Lynch: I figure there's a 99% chance the other Angel is protecting either themselves or Brick tonight, so I'm for offing SpriteX or Pappy.

Tock (Mar 3):
Here's who I want to night-kill, in order of priority:
1.) The Oracle. If we manage to night-kill the Oracle, we can pose as a power role with relative impunity, and buy at least a day of extra time in the confusion.
2.) The Vigilante. Bonus kills for civilians are bad for us. Also, hiding as the Vigilante (since they turn up Guilty) is good for us.
3.) The Non-Alice Angel. Wasted kills are bad for us.
4.) The Brickroad. He's a schemer and people have already indicated their willingness to follow his lead. I agree with Paul that he's a possible Night 3 kill, after he riles people up but hopefully before he gets people working together as a unit. There's a small chance we can get him in on a Day Kill.
5.) The Inspector. If we kill the Oracle we can install a fake Inspector, so I'm not that concerned.
I don't consider Alice that much of a threat because we can manipulate her, particularly if Brick is dead.

Tock (Mar 3):
On Silent Noise: jesus. it is a friggin miracle we dragged his corpse to Day Two. what are the odds that kid screws both Mafia teams?
If/when shivam replaces him, I agree that he's got to play the "SN was an idiot, I'm just a citizen" card and hope for the best. He's still going to have a huge target on his back anyway--the real Inspector, if he's any good, has already flagged the kid as a free Mafia investigation (especially since Marion was also mafia, ffffffffff), and is using him as a honeypot to see who rises to his defense when the inevitable happens. We've got to be ready to turn on him at any time (though as Paul said, not too obviously). Further--and this might seem kind of out there--I think maybe we minimize contact with shivam. Have him pop into the Speakeasy (if he even lives to see Night Two), share his thoughts on who to target, then pop back out. Plausible deniability and all that. Unfortunately at this time I don't see that role living very long, or useful as anything besides a loose cannon/spreader of misinformation. SN already semi-tied himself to Paul, and since Paul's already considered a power player that causes trouble.

Tock (Mar 3):
Personal strategies: I was going for the contributing/talkative newbie, but it looks like we're all doing that. Except for Paul, who's doing a good job of lying low but not too low, but he's under suspicion as a strong player anyway so it almost doesn't matter. People look for patterns of behavior so if we all act too similarly we risk getting busted. That being said, no one drastically change the way you post overnight, obv. We should just find ways to distance from each other if they present themselves. Umby was (up until the 11th hour, geez) a pretty non-controversial move, but as soon as there are contrary positions to take it will help to have some of us on each side. I don't know that we need to choreograph a full-on fight just yet, but I think that's a good idea to keep for mid-game.
I'd also caution you guys about allying too closely to me--I'm taking a bit of a risk and trying to be a bit too loud, hopefully hiding in plain sight but even in the worst case scenario drawing heat from the rest of you. Ideally if/when I go down I don't take you guys with me, but rather some of the other big posters. I was initially trying to tie myself more obviously to certain non-Mafia players (specifically Brick and Alice) for that reason. Then Alice outs herself as the Angel which I mean srsly wtf. Anyhow, Ironz, I feel like you've been a little too ready to say "yeah, that" after I post, so just be careful. Not that I am trying to paint myself as a mastermind here--this is probably a dumb move, which is why it's good for you to get some separation.
Anyway, quick overall thoughts: we have to individually act consistently, because people don't like contradictions (note Destil getting some heat). However, as a group, we need to be inconsistent. If one of us is under suspicion, we have to be able to cut them off and still keep going as a whole.

Tock (Mar 3):
oh, and I agree with discussion above that Destil and Traumadore are useful as guys who have drawn attention to themselves, and as possible Day Two lynch targets.

Tock (Mar 3):
that's enough blah blah out of me for now, I'll lurk until one of y'all comes back. having fun so far guys! let's take this town over.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
I noticed your aggression in-game. I think it's good, but it goes without saying: be careful of pushing too hard and drawing attention to yourself, at least for now. It might be good for drawing people out later on though.

Garrison (Mar 3):
Okay, I have no idea what I'm doing on Google Wave, but I do have quite a few things I want to say. First off, bravo gentlemen, we've played this well so far. Secondly I guess I owe everyone at least some kind explanation for how I'm playing. The way I see it, we all need to differentiate our playstyles a bit. Paul is quiet and has a time difference to defend himself with, Bodhi is also a little too quiet for my taste, but alas. gamin I'd say is playing it just right. Tock, you and I are playing just a little loosely(sp?). This isn't a problem in my eyes though, you're coming up with good points and ideas while I'm essentially playing a pretty transparent citizen game. Now, so far I've eluded notice from most players. I've been quoted three times and mentioned once, but only in agreement.

Tock (Mar 3):
I can see you typing!! this is blowing my minnddddd

Garrison (Mar 3):
Now, I'll go ahead and talk about my original plan I had going for this that SN managed to muck up on the first day. I was originally going to offer myself up lynching on the third day while we had another mafioso come out as a false inspector. They lynch me, that person gains trust, and we effectively destroy any foundation for them to build a bloc again. Now, we still have an oppurtunity to do this, but I think it's way too risky for my taste. I know if I was the inspector, I'd probably either check SN or Brickroad the first night. There is no other logical option in my mind. So I'd say it's probably in our best interest to help lynch SN. Now, if Shivam replaces him, some of us should try and save him. Keyword being some.

Garrison (Mar 3):
As has been mentioned before, we cannot afford to be lumped in together. This means, no quoting, no mentioning and try for the love of god not to agree 100% on who to lynch from this point on. Day 1 was a special event where our lynching target wasn't made from either malicious intent nor from suspicion. In otherwords, today was a safe day.

Tock (Mar 3):
I don't think we need to avoid quoting each other altogether, because that in itself (maybe getting too paranoid here) is suspicious. Just use really good judgment before doing so. Our most-quoted "allies" should ideally be citizens, IMO. This is also what I meant when I said I felt Ironz (is that you, David?) was maybe replying after me a little too closely, too consistently--bunched up agreement posts are just as good as quotes, I think.

Garrison (Mar 3):
yes, Ironz/David are in fact one whole being. anyways, I can see that. Like I said, I'm trying to basically play like I have no idea what to do, but I want to play. I kind of feel that this makes me people kind of forget about me to an extent while the original accusers will be brought up again. Now I'll say this again, if you'll feel it would be in your benefit to turn on me to build trust with the citizens, by all means do it. At this point, I'm not sure of an effective way to do so, but I figure it's better to put it on the table at this point. go ahead Tock

Tock (Mar 3):
are direct replies too confusing to parse? and I can never tell when someone's done typing. google waaavvvee
I think we're all playing well enough so far, just that going forward we should a) distance ourselves a bit, and b) be prepared to turn each other in if need be (as I think all five of us have said at this point). Right now the obvious chip to cash is SN/shivam, but if another one of us comes under fire we have to be ready to cut him loose. It's also weird if the five of us never agree on anything, ever--just be as suspicious as you would be were you a citizen (particularly as you, Ironz, are playing the transparent citizen). I think that's actually a good role for you--you get extra cover since you're a new guy and probably lower on the radar than Brick, Paul, et al.

Tock (Mar 3):
that being said, I think it's early to plan out giving one of us up--while the Inspector and the Oracle are both still alive, it's a bit too risky. more of a mid-game move or an emergency bloc-buster. done typing for now, Ironz, your thoughts.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
I noticed a few lines in your posts that basically said "I'm pretty dumb and don't pay attention to me!" I see what you're doing with the role - and I think it's a good role - but maybe dial it back a bit. It could be suspicious if you get a digest post and show up as conspicuously pointing out your own ignorance.

Garrison (Mar 3):
I do agree with pretty much everything you've said. It is way too early to even think about a false inspector situation. That in my opinion, is a day three plan at the earliest. To be honest, I don't even see that as something that will happen either with SN screwing things up. I do want to mention some people that we should be aware of. Destil seems to be quoting Kaisel a bit and seems a little wary of him. No one else really seems to be all that interested in what Kaisel has to say. I think this paranoia may be used in the future in a hit/lynch situation. Basically, Kaisel made himself look like a threat(role) and Destil could plan on killing him. So if we kill Kaisel, that makes Destil look either like a mafioso, or the first one on board on team hateKaisel. PappilonReel I don't think has a role, but I don't see him as a bad choice for first hit either. Brickroad should without a doubt be save until later, and to be honest, he seems to be following Tock's plays. We could probably get him lynched before, but he wouldn't make a bad night 3 hit either.

Tock (Mar 3):
I'm consciously trying to post in a way that plays to Brickroad--i.e. open, logically thought out, consistent. Things that seemed to draw his suspicion in the last game were argumentative swings of inconsistency (Merus) and general eccentricity/unreliability (Loki/Dizzy). That being said I'm sure he'll turn on me in a second if he wants. One of my goals here is to keep his mob off me long enough to be closely tied to him, so that if I go down and am outed as Mafia, he's a big target. He has this sort of cult of mafia personality that I think we can exploit, either by turning on him (because people fear him), or leading him astray (because people follow him).
Brick is going to read this post-game report and have a massive ego.

Tock (Mar 3):
I like your thoughts re: Kaisel/Destil--we've already got people wary of Destil as is, and I have a kind of feeling about kaisel. If nothing else, he's got mafia experience. Not sure if he's a role, just a thing.

Gamin (Mar 3):
One thing that's become really clear in the first page is that kaisel trusts Paul more then Brickroad.

Tock (Mar 3):
This is really good info, especially since Paul is a target. If we go for the kill kaisel/lynch Destil plan, it's got to be a point of emphasis. I think the odds of kaisel being protected tonight are next to nothing, unless he's the Angel and is protecting himself--in which case, at least we've flushed out both Angels.
On that note, how lucky were we with that Alice thing? Not only did a power role get outed, but we're free from both an Angel and a Vigilante action on Night One, and we barely did a thing.

Tock (Mar 3):
or (overthinking things): is it too obvious of a move to kill kaisel and lift up Paul? I think he (Paul) is an obvious inspection target no matter what we do.

Garrison (Mar 3):
To be honest, I don't think many people will look at Paul when they read Kaisel's first post. Call it a hunch, but compared to all the other information, there's a lot more potent stuff on other players. Again, I'm just basing this of "feelings"

Gamin (Mar 3):
That's definately true, I was bringing that up more as a possibility in perhaps influencing kaisel to do something we want him to do. If Paul can convince him of something he suspects, and kaisel runs with it, that could tip the favor of other citizens.
One thing I noticed from my own accusation making is that it only took a couple agreeing opinions to garner followers.

Garrison (Mar 3):
god I can't type to save my life.
Now, another thing to consider is that if you were the angel, who would you protect?
Me, I'd go for the MVP as I said earlier. I kind of get the feeling that others are in agreement there. Who does everyone think has a role? I'm going to read through all ten pages again and collect my thoughts.

Tock (Mar 3):
currently rereading the thread. I'll add thoughts to this post as I have them.
Eddie: well-liked, but maybe not that great of a planner? his SN plan was, as kaisel immediately pointed out, pretty shaky. Yet a number of people (SuperRube et al) were willing to go along, I guess because we all think Eddie is a cool dude and like his LP. He also clung to it longer than I thought was smart, even as others punched holes in the idea. Possible useful strategy in the future could be to support another likeable, exploitable Eddie plan. This of course hinges on him not being called out right away. (post-game review note: sorry Eddie! your FFT LP is good times.)
kaisel and LilSpriteX are coming off as fairly cautious, to me (moreso kaisel). Is it because they are roles, and are trying to toe the line between visible and too quiet? Or is it just playstyle? Sprite in particular was a bit more outspoken in the last game, though he jumped in near the end when things were crazy. I think it's notable that Sprite never retracted his accusation of Traumadore, and did not jump on the Umbywagon. kaisel appears to be easier to lead at this point. Sprite is being intentionally obtuse, in my opinion, which suggests he's hiding.
spineshark's playing tough guy and could be a problem later. Destil and Traumadore are drawing aggro as I mentioned before. Pappy is stirring the pot a bit, but not as an instigator. Everyone else is mostly following other people's lead right now, which makes sense since Day One is largely random chance anyway.
Done with this particular thread re-read and am away from the computer for a bit. Awaiting input from the rest of youse.

Gamin (Mar 3):
I'm going through this thread as well. One thing I want to add is if you're worried at all about metagaming, or people noticing your user profile is spending hours on the Mafia thread, just log yourself out of Talking Time while you do your close reading.
Also, profiles are easy to change on Google Wave, just select All on the leftmost menu, then Profile on the middle part. It's starting to confuse me trying to follow which one of your identical icons is which.

Garrison (Mar 3):
I do believe kaisel has a role, I'm just a little wary of him being an angel and protecting himself. I'll post more as I find it.

Tock (Mar 3):
The one upside of hitting the self-protecting Angel on Night One is that they're out in the open. They're more useful dead, but at least it's an information point.
The other point is that I think it's fairly likely that the Angel is protecting Brick or (bad move) Silent Noise tonight. This might be our best chance to hit them.

Garrison (Mar 3):
Agreed

Gamin (Mar 3):
Trumadore strikes me as a loose cannon, quick to take action.

Garrison and Gamin (Mar 3):
I can definitely see that. Could be very useful for our daytime actions
(Edit from gamin: Nevermind me, just testing out the edit another dude's post feature)

Gamin (Mar 3):
Okay, I'm going to put down the current most popular possibilities for tonight's hit:
Spineshark
Pappy
LilSpriteX
Kaisel
Since we have the ability to edit posts, even eachothers (I just tried Ironz's post above me) feel free to add more names to the list, and we can have little blurbs about why. Or maybe we should make a seperate post for each potential victim and reply with our thoughts on that hit.

Tock and Gamin (Mar 3):
let's go ahead and make separate posts--I'll start them now and populate with some thoughts from the Speakeasy. Everyone should feel free to add anything they think could possibly be relevant (if you want you can indicate what is and isn't your personal speculation). I should be clear that by "pros" I mean "good reasons to night kill" and cons "possible reasons to keep alive".
Spineshark
pros: possible role? Marks LilSpriteX as suspicious (gamin)
cons:

Tock (Mar 3):
I'd like to hear your reasoning on that, gamin (not that I disagree).

Gamin (Mar 3):
LilSpriteX was first to accuse Spineshark, although he claimed it was because of a random generator. Maybe people won't remember this, since he then feuded with Trumadore.

Tock, Garrison and Gamin (Mar 3):
PupusaReál
pros:
cons: could be played against Traumadore. People are already somewhat suspicious of Pappy, making killing him tonight a possible waste?(Ironz)

Tock and Gamin (Mar 3):
LilSpriteX
pros: possible role? (Tock)
cons: could be played against Traumadore

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 5):

Tock, Gamin and Garrison (Mar 3):
kaisel
pros: possible role? (Ironz) could be played against Destil (Ironz)
cons: possible ally for Paul? (gamin)

Gamin (Mar 3):
interesting, and it feels as if kaisel and Destil are both fighting for MVP beneath Brickroad in terms of posting a lot and trying to organize.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 4):
Gamin - I agree with you on the trying-to-be the MVP thing; and also that he is likely a role. I'm throwing my vote behind Kaisel for now; with Spineshark as a second; mostly because I don't think those two can be killed during the day, where the others can.

Gamin (Mar 4):
Yeah, for now I'm voting kaisel. I think one fewer outspoken citizen will help us, especially since we have talkative members of our own, Ironz and Tock. Also, it feels like it would be interpreted as a standard mafia move--going after a talkative person with few other leads to follow and would not be examined especially closely.

Tock (Mar 3):
One overall (non-player-specific) thought I had regarding targets: it might be that people with wait-and-see night roles (i.e. Inspector, Oracle) were acting more wait-and-see in the thread. This is harder to see on Day One, with a required lynch, but it might emerge more clearly on Day Two. It may be helpful in gathering information, if not now, then in the future. It's also a possible tack to use if you're thinking of faking Inspector.
added: anyone other than us mafiosos who votes to proceed to night without a lynch on Day Two would seem to me to be either a bad player or a wait-and-see role.

Gamin (Mar 3):
From my rereading Mr. J struck out to me as someone to watch. Quiet, but he has experience playing this game with his family, and everything he posted seemed well reasoned.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
Anyone on right now? Looks like no.
It's worth checking out who -didn't- vote to lynch Umby too, and see if they have a good reason (time zone etc.)

Tock (Mar 4):
Accusal histories:
Alice: Silent Noise (post-"inspector" reveal). Withdrawn. Umby.
Brickroad: Silent Noise (immediately--probably personal, it is SN). Alice. Umby (third, following gamin/Tock). Alice (post-Umby return). Umby (following gamin).
Destil: Alice (first to accuse). Withdrawn. Umby (later claimed to be first to call out Umby, but was not first to accuse).
Eddie
Guesty
Kaisel: Umby (said he was thirding, actually fourth). Retracted. Umby.
LilSpriteX: Spineshark ("at random"). Withdrawn. Traumadore.
Mr. J: Alice. Umby.
PapillonReel: Traumadore (retribution).
spineshark: Umby. spineshark (not serious?)
SuperRube: Silent Noise (following Brick). Retracted. Umby.
Traumadore: Silent Noise. Retracted. Pappy (first). Retracted. Umby.
players who accused no one: Eddie (offered self as sacrifice), Guesty (expressed suspicion of Silent Noise)
players who never accused Umby: Eddie, Guesty, LilSpriteX, Pappy.
of the non-Umbys, two have kept a low profile (Pappy, Guesty especially), one has made accusations but pointedly stayed above the Umby fray (Sprite), and one has done a lot of talking and no accusing (Eddie). As far as I know, most of these guys are in the Eastern time zone, or near to (not sure about Guesty).

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
I don't think an inspector fakeout is worth the risk unless we already have not just the oracle but the inspector already dead. Otheriwse it's too easy to backfire on us - they just come out, and either way we have one more day maximum before we're caught and hung (they hang us right away, or they hang a test victim and THEN hang us). And the first to come out will def. be more suspicious.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
Also, let's not get ahead of ourselves on sacrifices just yet. Stringing up SN/shivam when it comes to that might be enough to buy us some time, and only later one might we have to throw one of us to the wolves. And it might very well be me if I end up inspected - likely based on last-game performance, but less so based on this-game performance. I said I wanted to play a more reserved game in the wrapup from last time and I'm following through on that. Anyway the point is wait until it starts to look necessary before we throw one of ourselves to the dogs. It's a huge risk if we sac, say, Tock - and then 2 of us were inspected to boot. I've considered it too but let's sit on it for now.

Tock (Mar 4):
Agreed. I might not have been clear enough about it upthread (upwave?), but while we should be prepared to sacrifice, it should only be if that person's already a strong suspect, or if we've previously planned it in order to establish a false bloc, fake inspector, et al. Day Two's probably too early to worry about giving one of us up without much of a fight, unless the group comes out really strongly right away. I think supporting the lynch of a mafia member can be a good mid-game strategy to take some of the heat off of yourself--in the early game, I don't think it's as effective (people have short memories). And I'm not for faking Inspector/Vigilante/Angel unless the Oracle and at least one other power role is dead.

Tock (Mar 4):
On SN/shivam, though: while it would be great for us to keep him around, anyone who actually steps up and supports him is going to be insanely suspicious, especially while the real Inspector is out there. Killing the Inspector and installing shivam would be a huge coup but the odds are way way against that right now. We have to be prepared to give him up on Day Two, and realistically if that lynch mob forms one of us will need to be at its head.

Gamin (Mar 4):
On that note, it should stand to reason that either I or Paul lead the lynch mob if/when it comes to it. We were the most outspoken mafiosos against SN on Day One, outright suspecting him of being mafia, so it would seem a natural progression for us.

Tock (Mar 4):
I agree that you or Paul should take the lead if needed. I tried to establish the "useful idiot" concept so it would be inconsistent if I turned on him right away. That being said, I'm not going to defend SN to the death--as soon as logic clearly dictates he's more useful dead, I'll have to stay in character and switch over. I'll probably do that sooner than later, since when he's outed as mafia people are going to be looking for late accusers.
The upside of giving SN up is that it makes Eddie and his elaborate "keep him alive, test him every night" strategy look even worse. Unless of course Eddie is the inspector.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
As for on whom we should move tonight, I'm putting my votes down for
Spineshark or Kaisel
--followed by--
Pappy
Any of those is fine with me, preference on the first two.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
I think Eddie is a high probability for a power role, possibly inspector, mostly because he offered himself up as a sacrifice then pointed out how people who did so are clearly citizens. Clearly. I'll be keeping a close eye on him. Let's give him a day or two though to make any big moves.
Spineshark, I want to see more from him. Her. Whatever. Still suspicious for the same reason. The only people who offered to kill themselves last game were Brick and Lucas. It's not a move you make lightly.

Gamin (Mar 4):
Spineshark would be my second choice after kaisel, only because he's sparked everyone else's interest. I'm honestly not reading much from his posts, but that may be my own inexperience in this game talking. He did offer himself up, sure, but he did that after Eddie offered himself, and he never actually said "I accuse Spineshark," in his own post (or is that against rules? Merus says "during the day, players may make accusations against other players" so maybe you can't accuse yourself) it was just another offer in response to Eddie's.
If anything, I'm starting to wonder about Eddie now...

Tock (Mar 4):
spineshark did actually accuse him/her/itself, though this seems to be in response to the back-and-forth on Umby as a call to get things done. I'm with Paul in that anyone who offers themselves up on Day One (when it's least likely to happen) is suspicious of trying to hide in plain sight, especially after Brick warned people against that strategy.
Eddie really ought to be on our watch list. I'm going to make a quick digest post on him.

Tock (Mar 4):
The Life and Posts of Eddie
Post #15: his Batman entrance.
#22: Tells citizens (in bold) not to pretend to be the inspector.
#23: edit to post #22.
#31: joke post (response to Brickroad)
#49: Doesn't believe SN is the Inspector (first to contest this claim).
#54: Claims to be just a citizen. Indicates that if he were the Vigilante, would shoot SN (one of the first to call for killing SN, near-simultaneous with Tramadore's accusal).
#58: Lays out first SNspector plan (give both him and real Investigator targets, have real inspector reveal himself as soon as SN is wrong).
#68: Clarifies SN plan.
#70: edit to post #68.
#75: Replies to Destil about flaws in plan. Tells SN to withdraw claim to inspector if he is actually a citizen (callback to #22?).
#82: Response to kaisel skepticism about SN plan. Would have Angel protecting SN. Emphasizes that citizens would be naming targets.
#83: Response to Ironz. Investigating SN "a waste of time (He's VERY likely Mafia)." Again proposes to test SN's investigation claims.
#140: Against killing Alice and SN (discouraging them from playing Mafia in the future by holding past poor performance against them). Continues to argue for SN plan. Offers himself as a lynch nomination (claims he is an ordinary citizen), is the first (I think) to do so.
#148: Defends Alice further. In light of spineshark also offering as a self-lynch, asks that no one offer themselves up for lynching (lets Mafia "root out who isn't a special").
#152: Response to Brickroad re: Alice, Brick's "in it to win it" attitude. Links to This American Life.
#153: wishes he could edit/sleep.
#160: Doesn't want to lynch spineshark, alludes that he and spine are not roles because they volunteered. Tempted to accuse SN ("if we're not going to use him," i.e. Inspector Plan, "we should get rid of him"). Reluctant to vote on Umby until 24 hours have passed. Supporting Alice.
#250: Warns new players to watch what they say, not take lynchings personally. "Don't know if Umby will survive the night," but does not accuse/support Umby otherwise. This post came after both the Umby bandwagon and the Umby return.
#254: Again offers to be lynched to protect a special, "but I think we've gone past that point." Offers advice to Alice, who immediately alludes to her role in the following post.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
As for our in-game strategy - we need to ally not with each other, but with other outspoken citizens. That way we appear as part of the citizens' team without offering a bloc or alliance to be discovered. We should step on each other's reasoning if it comes up (and other citizens as well so again we don't point each other out).
Basically: play like citizens. Don't give each other any special notice. Do the same we'd do for any other citizen, or the same we'd do for anyone if we were citizens. Our game is blending in and watching in the day and acting at night.
I do like the idea of more active strategies to force their hand, like building a fake bloc with a sacrifice. But only when it's safe.

Garrison (Mar 4):
Alright, I most likely won't be available today, so my vote is going to be for kaisel. spineshark is fine too, but I'd prefer kaisel.

Tock (Mar 4):
I'm for kaisel as well. I think all five of us are in agreement at this point.
General strategies we seem to have agreed upon for Day Two:
--Try to distance ourselves from each other and associate more closely to citizens.
--No need to sacrifice ourselves this early.
--Stay consistent, stay talkative (if, for you, that is consistent), stay alert. However, no need to force anything just yet.
--Be careful with the SN/shivam situation. Better to be one of the first to call for his lynching than one of the last.
--Watch List: Eddie, spineshark, LilSpriteX.
--Possible Lynch Targets, should they present themselves: Destil, Traumadore, Eddie (longshot on Day Two), Brickroad (longshot on Day Two)

Garrison (Mar 4):
I read through your Eddie posts and I do see reasons to be worried about him. I think we should DEFINITELY keep an eye on him in the next day cycle. The way he seems to be playing (as crazy as it sounds) makes me sort of feel that he may IN FACT have a role.

Tock (Mar 4):
it's weird. Re-reading his posts, my first instinct is that his plan is not great, because it would be really easy for us (especially as the days go on) to manipulate the "citizens'" choice of investigation targets, or (as kaisel noted) just to kill off his investigation targets before he learns anything. But Eddie's plan becomes much more useful to Eddie, specifically, if he is either the Inspector or the Oracle. In that event, it's just a variant of the useful idiot proposal--keep SN alive until he gives up other mafia, because Eddie himself would fact-check. Additionally, the whole "citizens, don't pose as the inspector!" line in particular is notable to me, moreso than his "kill me, I'm just a dude" defense. That was his whole strategy in game one, after all (though admittedly it got him whacked real fast).
I'm still for kaisel tonight, but I'd watch Eddie really carefully on Day Two for any Oracle/Inspector giveaways. The other possible Eddie tactic going forward is that, if/when SN is outed as Mafia, call Eddie out for being such a vocal proponent of keeping SN alive. And--this is too obvious a play to advance ourselves, but I'm pretty sure someone else will make it for us--who was the most skeptical of Eddie's plan? kaisel.

Garrison (Mar 4):
Maybe this sounds a little out there, but i also find Eddie's self sacrifice a little bit questionable. Now, the reason I say this is partly because of how he died the last time. No one wants him to die first again and I think he knew that when he posted that. If he IS a role, this seems to me a good way to throw the mafia off his track. In otherwords, I think it's a ploy and he is our inspector/oracle.
But like you said, I think the best move for tonight is still kaisel.

Gamin (Mar 4):
I like this logic, kaisel now seems the best choice for whacking. We'll see how it affects Eddie and see if anyone connects these dots.

Gamin (Mar 4):
Did anyone catch Eddie's recent post on Mafia: The forum game?
"You know, I was thinking that maybe we should try a game that has NO special roles in it sometime. Just plain ol' citizens, mafioso, and tons of paranoia."
More food for thought.

Garrison (Mar 4):
I'm still wondering if we can make the kaisel/Destil thing work. The seed is planted, but I don't know if we should be the ones to water it. People are wary of Destil and I'm hoping I wasn't the only one to notice how much attention he was giving to kaisel.What do you guys think? Should we lay off and just go with the flow, or should one of us prod things A LITTLE in the right direction? I think I'd rather lie low, but if anyone has any plans of how to make it work, I think we should take it into consideration.

Gamin (Mar 4):
I think it's natural for people to ponder why kaisel got killed by the mafia. The best players will be looking for potential enemies and rivals of kaisel, but I find it hard to completely single out Destil among the people kaisel has debated with over the course of day one. I personally want to see where Brickroad takes this, see if anyone else jumps in with support and then I might try and add my own 2 cents to steer things some amount.

Garrison (Mar 4):
Sounds good to me, I'm probably not going to talk much on the subject when day actually begins. I don't really have any concrete plan for day 2 other than to act like I have been and keep on the lookout for Eddie

Tock (Mar 4):
tl;dr for Merus: we be killin' kaisel.
gents, it's been a pleasure so far. here's to Day Two.

Merus (Mar 4):
Whackin' kaisel!
... WHACKING ...
...hey guys: jackpot. kaisel was an Angel.
If you have any requests for the method of death, please let me know in a reply!

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
kill him the way you kill anyone in toscano-- drown him in a wine barrel

Tock (Mar 5):
sounds good to me. plus it seems fair to let shivam make this call--he'll be damn lucky to make it to Night Two and weigh in from there. sorry bro!

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 5):
yeah, i wasnt expecting to live for much longer

Garrison (Mar 4):
Awesome. Do what you feel is right Merus, I'm feeling creatively bankrupt and I don't think anyone else is online

Tock (Mar 5):
also, hell yes on the productive night one kill. if we manage to get the Oracle in the next two days I will seriously dance a jig.

Gamin (Mar 5):
Congratulations guys! Despite the SN madness, we're on a good start.

Tock (Mar 5):
oh, wait. does this mean he's definitely dead? Merus's quick line up there didn't necessarily indicate if he's self-protecting tonight. I suppose we'll know either way pretty soon. He's been identified, regardless.

Merus (Mar 5):
I only inform you of a role if the hit was successful. kaisel protected someone else tonight.

Garrison (Mar 5):
"jackpot"

Tock (Mar 5):
I guess this job's a success!

Garrison (Mar 5):
I'm really glad I was right about kaisel. Somehow in the back of my mind I knew he was our other angel. I appreciate the Final Fantasy Tactics lines as well.

Tock (Mar 5):
last thoughts before I check out for the night: people are going to make plans that sound like "Alice, protect X. Other Angel, protect Y." Watch for anyone who is uneasy with this plan--they might be the Oracle.

Merus (Mar 4):
Thanks guys. shivam is joining you, replacing Silent Noise; shivam, let me know when you're ready to move to day.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
my god. what have i gotten myself into?

Garrison (Mar 4):
Good luck shivam, you may need it. Unfortunately Silent Noise was a moron and painted you into a horrible postition. I'm hoping Merus's update concerning saying "day 2 will start when all the special players are ready."

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 4):
I'm fine with moving to day 2--i'll catch up with this thread in the mean time.

Garrison (Mar 4):
It's up to you, we're ready, but no one else is online and I'm fine with waiting for everyone else to help decide on kaisel's death message.

Merus (Mar 4):
I'll do it later on tonight, before i go to bed. Got shit to do tonight!
I think everyone else has checked in - not sure about the vigilante.

[b]Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com, Merus and Shbhatt@googlewave.com[b](Mar 5):
Wicked sweet. See you in day phase!
Are You In?

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 5):
I was mostly just testing to see how the gadget worked. Whee!

Destil
04-08-2010, 09:56 PM
Merus (Mar 8):
Mafia East Speakeasy - Night 2
From experience with the West game, we've found it's easier to have a new wave for each day instead of one big wave.
Have at it, lads and lassies!

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
so, bets that i get offed tonight?

Garrison (Mar 9):
Honestly, I don't see why they wouldn't try and kill you. It will be a miracle if they go after Destil.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
also, i dont hold it against any of you fortrying to string me up

Garrison (Mar 8):
So first of all, sorry shivam. I still feel bad going after you like right away, but I didn't see another out.

Gamin (Mar 8):
Alice has a suprisingly strong intuition. Wow. I'm glad we managed to put as much of a dent into her reasoning as we did, but wow.

Tock (Mar 8):
Yeah, Brick et al were slamming her "ability" even as they were calling on her to make picks. Meanwhile, I was quietly horrified that she already fingered half of us. We dodged a bullet and while I still think she can be nudged one way or the other, we can't underestimate her.

Garrison (Mar 8):
I'm just glad that Brickroad stood up for Paul. Day 2 could have gone really badly just based on Alice's intuition. I'm just hoping it doesn't come down to just me, Alice and the other citizen in the end. I'm still not sure why she trusts me so much.

Gamin (Mar 8):
People Alice has fingered in Day 2:
Spineshark
gamin
Paul le Fou
Brickroad
shivam
People Alice trusted on Day 2:
PapillonReel
Mr. J
Eddie
Garrison

Gamin (Mar 8):
And then we could be facing further ramifications since BodhiTraveller led the day's charge against Traumadore.

Garrison (Mar 8):
Very true, but I'm not entirely sure that anyone is going to pick up on Bodhi, atleast as far as day 3 is concerned.

Gamin (Mar 8):
People won't know shivam's mafia until the Vigilante speaks up. Which could be day 3. That will be a pivotal moment if both the Inspector and the Vigilante reveal themselves. I wonder: should we seriously consider faking both?

Garrison (Mar 8):
I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks about it before we go too much further, but for now, I think it's probably a bad move. Unless we create complete chaos by having everyone reveal a role, we'll probably get lynched for sure if someone challenges us. I don't know.

Garrison (Mar 8):
Right now, my main concern is keeping everyone alive and trying to take out the vigilante or the inspector. All we have to do is make our numbers even and a bloc can seriously fuck that up. Vigilante is a bit more complicated since they'd usually be doing us favors outside of killing shivam this time.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 8):
shit just got real, kids. i can't believe they didn't string me up.

Tock (Mar 8):
For a while I thought we'd actually get you to fly under the radar, when it looked like Pappy would get lynched and Trauma/Destil shotgunned. But unfortunately people forgot about Paps.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 8):
Still, we dodged a proverbial bullet today.

Tock (Mar 8):
Targets I think we should consider for Night Two:
1. Find the Vigilante
2. Find the Inspector
3. Kill the Oracle
4. Bust the bloc
I don't have any leads on #1 or #2, but maybe if we put our heads together we can come up with something. Pappy seems to clearly be the Oracle if we go with #3. Moreover, he'll sing if we manage to kill the Inspector or Vigilante--which might be good for sowing some panic, but eliminates the option of posing as that role.
Regarding #4, the strategy here would be to kill likely targets of the Inspector and prevent him from building a voting bloc. Right now, I'd say the most likely Inspector targets have been shivam, Paul, and Brickroad, so if we kill Brick we have, with any luck, prevented the Inspector from massing citizens.
It's still more directly useful to off the Inspector, since there's still the chance he's looked at/will look at Paul or gamin.

Garrison (Mar 8):
I guess the best thing for us to do regarding the four options is to work on more digests and see what we have to work with. The names that stick out to me would be: spineshark, Brickroad, Eddie, Mr.J and Guesty. So pretty much everyone who isn't us or hasn't had a digest done yet. I'm still working on a mountain of bookwork at this point, but I can probably do some of them tomorrow after class.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
Jesus I can't believe I pulled that off. We managed not only to partially disable Alice's accusatory ability but get Brick - somehow miraculously - on my side. In fact, I too have some doubts if Brick hasn't caught on but wants me to think he hasn't. But last game I learned a little bit about over-overanalyzing people's motivations, so I'm not counting on it at the moment.

Garrison (Mar 9):
I have a hard time believing it myself. We've got great damage control abilities apparentally.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
The downside is that I may still appear suspicious - to Alice and perhaps to Eddie.
My original plan was to ice Brickroad tonight. However, now that he is apparently supportive of me, it's possibly better to keep him alive (that's why I was thinking he might be bluffing on that - save himself).
Pros on keeping him alive - influential, smart player - supportive of undercover mafia. This can be a big deal for us.
Cons - possibly bluffing. Possible role (I mean, anyone's possible - but if he's bluffing it's possibly because he wants to investigate/shotgun me himself). I don't think it's likely, and he's probably a citizen. Just verbal diarrhea here.
If we keep him alive he could continue to support me. If we kill him, it wouldn't necessarily look bad and in fact might draw suspicion away from me because it puts me in a worse position - but it also puts me in a worse position.
I'm talking mostly about myself because I also appear to be the only one making himself a huge-assed target, everyone else is doing a good job keeping covered. Good job blending in. Although I'd like to know what got Alice to look at Gamin.
I think Brick is still a definite possible target, if only to see what a Brick-less game would look like. It would be a different dynamic and he's also a strong focal point for them, so it might scatter them a bit. But again, danger on myself.
I'm willing to argue my way out of danger if Brick eats it, so I'll leave it to you guys.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
who should we be targeting, then? paps?

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
also, i can't tell you how much i wsh this thread was accessible during the day. defending myself was a tough nut to crack

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
You did pretty well all things considered! I felt bad because it looked like we could have gotten off without having to shotgun you after all towards the end. Should have pushed for traumadore/destil a little harder. But that leaves us the ability to lynch destil.
Also, good move whoever switched shivam to shotgun target. Now we still lose him but the vigilante has to come oh shit nevermind, pappy is oracle, he'll be able to tell them.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
i know that silent noise was a target from day 1, so stepping into his cement boots was foregone for me. I just wanted to make sure we could knock out a citizen first.

Garrison (Mar 9):
I don't think shotgunning Paps will do much at this point. I'm leaning towards Eddie as of now, but we still got 2 days to deliberate. Brickroad would also be a good target, more for the influence he has over everyone. If we do take him out, we've got to consider who's going to take the main voice in the game. Eddie? Tock?

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
I think that we need to figure out who the investigator is, and if we can't, we _have_ to kill paps.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
Possible targets:
Brick: See Above
Eddie: Aggressive, somewhat analytical, not foolproof, remains to be seen how much he follows Brick vs. thinks on his own. Possible role.
Guesty: Only on my radar for being conspicuously quiet. He may be playing it safe after last game - he was worried and self-critical about how to play better. Possible role - trying as hard as he can to preserve it and lay low?
Mr. J - hasn't made much of an impression on me.
Pappy - Oracle. We should kill him at some point, but we risk the shell game.
Alice - Angel. DEFINITELY need to kill her, but when can we make a safe shot at her? Will she play the actual shell game perfectly randomly? Will she try and play it - or us?

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
i think alice is more clever than we give her credit for.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
Starting to agree. Which makes last game ALL THE MORE PUZZLING but still.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
what roles are left? vig, investigator, oracle and alice?

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
Yes.
Also, Pappy has to be the oracle. There is NO way he would know that Kaisel was the angel unless he was, and the chances of him guessing - or lying - are between zero and nothing.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
i think we did a good job obfuscating that reveal, but sooner or later, paps is going to haunt us. he's at the top of my targets list. him and brick.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
Yeah, it's important that he dies. He offers information for little risk.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
and thoughts that J might be vigilante? he seemed awfully aggro today.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
I'd have to go back and double-check. He hasn't made much impression on me either way so far.

Garrison (Mar 9):
J to me seems experienced, yet somewhat timid. Both me and Brick kind of bit into him during the day and he kind of backed off immediately. I'm not sure what that means, but I guess it's something to keep in mind.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
so that narrows to brick, eddie, and paps. Paps is oracle,pretty guaranteed. I want to say that eddie is investigator, and that brick is either vig or just really keen on running the show. either way, killinghim benefits us all, cause it cuts the head off of the snake. but alice is guaranteed to protect him i would think. or is she going to shield herself forever?

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
I don't know how canny Alice is, but I have to think she's doing the shell game on herself and Pappy.
But if she thinks we think she's doing that, she can go for Brick.
But if we think she thinks she's AAAAAARRGH :SJKLHDJKL:SHDFSJKLH
I got nothing. I get myself into feedback loops on this stuff and end up not being too helpful. If anything, my suggestion is to take things more at face value, so she's probably shell gaming and we can go after Brick safely.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
she's smart but not THAT smart. still in high school, after all

Garrison (Mar 9):
I'd say it's pretty safe to say that she's shell gaming it myself. So Pappy probably isn't a good choice for tonight.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
yeah, especially since his status i pretty obvious to everyone

Garrison (Mar 9):
I do definitely feel that Eddie is either inspector or vigilante. Call it intuition or whatever, but I can feel it.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
I've gotten that same impression. The only thing I've got is that, he admitted his first-game strategy was pretending to be the detective to draw citizen fire. You can argue that he's basically doing the same thing with batman clues and pushing hard for "DON'T PRETEND TO BE THE INSPECTOR" posts, etc.
I think he's dangerous because he suspects me on top of that, so that's going for us too.

Garrison (Mar 9):
Very true, but we also got remember that the citizens may very well key on into that aswell.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
That makes it too obvious for me to have done it. Remember Comb Stranger - a frame-up that went south. It would be the same thing over again. I could feign innocence on that being too risky a move if I were mafia. Of course, it IS but that's neither here nor there.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
lol

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
My only thought is that - if Pappy is an obvious target for angel protection, she might still not go for it based on its being so obvious. If she's counting on us not going for it... maybe we should. It's a huge risk though. I KNOW I KNOW. It's all about whether she will play the shell game truly or not, and whether we want to take that risk.
If she does play: 50% shot at Pappy.
If she doesn't: probably higher.
Stakes are high. Let's think on this for a day or so and come back to it.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
luckily it's GDC so i have an excuse to run away for a bit

Garrison (Mar 9):
Whenever I get time either tomorrow or the day after, I'll do digests on Brick and Eddie. I believe there's already one on Pappy on the main page. Hopefully that will do us something and won't be a collosal waste of time like the last two I did.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
goddamn it, paul stop jumping from post to post

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
Point about roles: it would be fun as hell to imitate a role, but we probably don't need to. Not yet, anyway. Our numbers are pretty strong here. If we manage to kill the inspector and get Pappy, it's worth a shot - but beyond that imitation is suicide at this stage.
Yeah, what a tard. Monumental tard.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
as nich said, noise was the tard TT was made to harsh

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
ESPECIALLY since motherfucking noise went that way minute 1.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
I think Brick is still a decent choice if for no other reason than that we might be able to escape into the chaos.
Eddie, a number of us suspect him to be a role. Possibly because he has done so on purpose, possibly because he is. Possibly neither.
Let's look up Mr. J and Guesty. I've got a hunch about Guesty, not that my hunches are any good.

Gamin (Mar 9):
At the same time, I feel as if Brickroad is one of the few people to respect and enjoy debate. He likes you Paul as a counterpart, because he knows that you'll be there to present devil's advocate to his plans and see holes in what he thinks is his best logic. This is part of the reason why I've started taking to directly quoting and debating him myself. It seems like many other citizens see debate and dissent straight up as antagonization and might be more likely to follow Alice's picks as a result.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
well, thus far, we're 1 for 1 when it comes to meaty kills. i think eddie is a safe choice.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
I didn't get much out of reading through Mr. J's posts. It was mostly mediocre strategy and a repeated insistence on not using the vigilante tonight. Anyone else get much of note from him?

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
Another possibility is Alice herself. It could be a 50% chance of nailing her early on and getting a huge boost. But what are the chances that she's more likely to protect herself, or to think we wouldn't nearly be stupid enough to try it?

Gamin (Mar 9):
Would certainly give us free range in the future if it works, but I'm not so sure we should risk it when we have unprotected players to ice.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
Didn't see much in Guesty's either. I'll wait on the rest of y'all to chime in.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 9):
The reason for my extremely sporadic playtime has been that we were shipping a book at work. Now its shipped! Hooray!
That being said, perhaps holding back works-- I don't think anyone is holding me accountable for leading on Traumadore, and very few people will probably identify me as the first voter.
I think we need to start planning for how to react to Shivam's gunning; if in fact he is shotgunned. It will be the first mafia kill, and people will be all atwitter with drawing the lines between shivam and all who he has interacted with. Two possibilities:
- Take control of the narrative of what it means to be connected to Shivam
- Discredit PumpernicleRye. This has the extremely low chance of revealing the vigilante in an attempt to confirm Mr. Rye.
As for targets, something tells me we could take Alice tonight if we wanted to. She strikes me as the team player type - her first move is not going to be protecting herself. Otherwise, I still think spineshark is a good choice, because I doubt we can kill him during the day. Destil is already on his way to the chopping block, and Brick is useful to keep around.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
I don't think discrediting Pappy will work. We should assume he's the oracle as basically everyone - but Destil - does. Possibly cast some doubts that we don't appear to take seriously. Using Destil's doubt might be key to getting him lynched today (I do think Destil will be the easiest lynch target for today, but it remains to be seen - we should wait and see what pops up early on before pushing anything. let someone else push just in case.)

Tock (Mar 9):
quick thought on Eddie: it's a big risk, but I think if we pushed we could get him lynched. He's advocated potentially dangerous strategy on both Day 1 (the SN plan) and Day 2 (bad numbers). He's also literally the only person to have come out strongly in defense of shivam. He was against using the vigilante kill (or was he, there was a bit of flip-flopping here) which, assuming the Vig hits shivam, will have netted the only mafia kill so far. If we kill Brick he might try to step up and fill the power void, which in itself people could find suspicious.
Basically, if we think he could be a power role, we kill him now. If we think he's just a citizen, we off Paps or Brick, and turn on Eddie when the Vigilante comes forward with shivam's status. Again, this plan obviously backfires if Eddie himself is the Inspector or Vigilante, in which case we might as well kill him tonight when it's extremely unlikely he'll be protected.

Garrison (Mar 9):
We could theoretically(sp?) go after Eddie for a lynch, but until we have any sort of strategy for it, I feel like it would be a huge risk. If he does end up having a role, I'm sure he'll defend himself and we'll be back to having to play without a formal plan.
I guess that's just something to think about. I'm open to ideas, I just want to aim more towards the fool-proof.

Tock (Mar 9):
The Eddie Digest, Day 2
#296: Day 2 roleplay opener.
#396: Throws support behind the aggressive gameplan, suggests we lynch most suspicious players and inspect least suspicious. Recommends choosing targets from Lynch Umby list.
#433: Odds of lynching mafia using Umby list not as good as he hoped. Supports lynching and shotgunning for Day/Night Two, going with two names picked by Alice.
#437: Disagrees with Destil's suggestion to forgo Vigilante kill for Night Two. Would prefer to hold off on shotgun if lynch kills a mafia
#438: Notes typo in #437.
#440: Continues to disagree with Destil, forwards lynch+shotgun plan.
#451: Math post (odds of hitting a mafia w/, w/o lynch, shotgun, etc). Wants Alice to pick both names, allow defense posts, allow inspector to out himself if necessary.
#532: Advocates listening to Brickroad, waiting for Alice.
#542: Responds to Brick, saying that we should listen to his plan because it's a good one regardless if whether or not Brick is mafia.
#543: Will talk about Alice's choices in the morning.
#574: Further outlines his MO to follow Alice's picks and Alice's picks only. Reasons himself out of lynching shivam and accuses Paul.
#579: Talks about collecting data via lynch. Argues with me about math. Does not support lynching Destil.
#580: Clarifies prior shivam/Marion/Noise logic.
#581: Corrects error in math.
#588: Clarifies that he only wants to shotgun names that Alice has provided. Realizes his Gambler's Fallacy.
#592: Argues with me about value of Vigilante kill. Reiterates his stance of taking a risk (lynch+shotgun) today, and that a Vigilante kill is unnecessary if the lynch hits a mafioso.
#593: Snide remark directed at me.

Tock (Mar 9):
I didn't bother doing a Pappy or Brick digest because we know Paps is 99.9% sure to be the Oracle, and the Brick digest would go "#421: Yells at Mr. J. #423: Argues with Paul."
My Eddie analysis: near the end of the day, I became concerned that if he was the Vigilante, he'd be sure to stick to his own plan and forgo a shotgun if Paul or shivam ended up being lynched. That's why I started pushing to have Trauma and shivam flipped, to hopefully force his hand. Given his buy-in to the Alice List Only plan, and his willingness to take a risk on Day Two, I was also concerned if we lynched shivam during the day, he might go ahead and shoot Paul at night. At least this way we got a citizen lynch to go with the likely Vigilante kill. I don't know that Eddie is the Vig, but I didn't want to take any chances.

Tock (Mar 9):
I'm going to go ahead and start the list for our current targets. Feel free to add observations and targets.
Eddie
pros: possible role. strongest adherent to the Alice plan and thus the hardest to influence.
cons: doesn't yet seem to be driving a lot of the dialogue (though this could change in a power vacuum, as he's well-liked). might bring suspicion on Tock (though I'm willing to try and talk my way out).

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
frankly, i think eddie is the clear choice. the more i think of it, the more i think that alice will protect paps, and eddie will gun for me.

Tock (Mar 9):
if he is the Vig, which again seems like a possibility, I feel like there's a chance he skips our vote and goes for Paul anyway.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
I did think that the vig - or Eddie if he were the vig - might go for me. It's possible but it also leaves shivam alive another day.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
hmm. either way, him and paps are my two main targets. Alice too, but the shell game means she might prot herself

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
all this discussion is more or less definitively pointing to eddie. shall we call for consensus?

Garrison (Mar 10):
Eddie has my vote unless someone else has any better ideas in the next 16 hours or so.

Tock (Mar 9):
ParlimentRoll
pros: is the Oracle; his death allows us to fake roles.
cons: might have himself lynched anyway to verify his role. presence as public Oracle helps instill unease/confusion if/when we off power roles. is the second most likely player to be protected tonight (outside of Alice herself).

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
my money is that betting on him or alice will fail the shell game. they've both basically outed themselves, so we can't expect to be able to pick tehm off.

Tock (Mar 9):
Brickroad
pros: is extremely likely to have been inspected; his death would cut down the bloc before it starts. people say they are suspicious of him, but still often follow his lead--death might cause power vacuum, power struggle.
cons: may be favoring debate over strategy (hence defense of Paul?) antagonizes and makes enemies.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 9):
i think brick is faking it. he's just a citizen or i'll eat my hat.

Tock (Mar 10):
I don't think he's a role either. honestly, he's useful to have alive because he draws a lot of heat and seems to enjoy picking fights.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
let's call a spade a spade--brick lives cause he makes the game interesting

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
But a Brickless game might be interesting in a different way. :)
I do think we should kill him at some point but I'm fine with Eddie for tonight. He's probably our most dangerous citizen at the moment.

Tock (Mar 10):
We can't get hung up on that, since it screwed over the Game One mafia squad. Personally and as of right now, I do think he keeps the game moving, and since he's likely not a role he's no more a threat than the other players, so having him around one more day is win-win in terms of having fun. Plus in-game he's been enough of a jerk that he'll just seem more and more suspicious by staying alive.

Garrison (Mar 10):
I can't say that I see Brickroad as a threat at all as a citizen. Everyone listens to him, but he seems to listen to a few select people just as much (Eddie, Tock)

Tock (Mar 10):
My take is that he likes logic and debate just as much as he likes winning the game. He'll shout you down if you're in complete opposition to him (Mr. J), but he likes it if you fight back (Paul). He can also be swayed by opinions that are at least somewhat similar to his own and well-explained (which is what I've been trying to do). He's much easier to sway than, say Eddie, or spineshark, who's kind of a loose cannon.

Garrison (Mar 10):
I've got to agree with Brickroad being a citizen. He (as far as I've noticed anyways) hasn't pushed for night in the slightest. He isn't acting like he did in the previous game at all. Once again, this is all just intuition on my part, as I haven't done a digest nor do I remember any stand out issues.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
So Eddie, Yes or No? (just figured out how to make a new slice of the wave)

Tock (Mar 10):
I'm leaning towards yes on Eddie. I'm out for the night, so I'll check what you guys have added in the morning.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
i vote yes, fwiw

Gamin (Mar 10):
I lean towards Eddie. As much as I'd like to take out Alice, whiffing is a risk we don't need to take yet.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
oh, and if we take out eddie, and he's the vig, and tries to take me out, i ask for an epic dual in a vinyard for a death scene =)

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
The epic duel would be cool but it would also BASICALLY reveal that you're mafia without oracle interference.

Tock (Mar 10):
Oh, and watch list for tomorrow?
Assuming we kill Eddie and he's not a role, I'd say spineshark and LilSpriteX, both of whom were oddly quiet for most of the day. Other thoughts?

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
They were both quiet but Lilsprite I think posted that he would be so we may not have much traction. His numbers-neutrality makes him very unsuspicious in most peoples' eyes - don't want to push too hard or conspicuously on someone who won't take. We could watch Spineshark, but we also gotta keep an eye on Destil as a possible lynch target for the day.

Tock (Mar 10):
sorry, I meant as possible roles--I think it'd be hard to get the mob against spine right now, and almost impossible against Sprite, unless Alice points the way for some reason.
On the subject of Alice: it should be a priority to nudge her our way without setting off her (apparently very strong, or very lucky) intuition. The Alice compromise worked out ok for tonight but we can't keep trading one citizen for one of us--ideally we can somehow get her to suspect two citizens, or pick one of her citizen targets and have the town nominate another from off the list.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
who do we think the investigator is?

Garrison (Mar 10):
I personally think the investigator is probably Eddie or one of the more quiet players like SuperRube or Guesty

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
I would argue that hunches aren't worth much, and that said, my hunch is leaning towards Eddie or, more likely, one of the Quiets. I think it's more likely that Eddie is (just barely) pretending to be a role to draw fire like he said he did last game, but I'm ok with taking him out either way as he appears somewhat dangerous to us.
Then again, if he gets killed it affirms his plans in the citizens' eyes and possibly turns them back towards trusting only Alice and possibly against me. I guess that's what Brick will be there for, unless he leads that particular charge.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
If consensus is for Eddie, I'll throw my hat in. Today may get rocky, though. Buckle in!

Tock (Mar 10):
Yeah, today's going to be key. If we're able to keep our heads down, get some influence over the town thought process, and get out with a citizen lynch, we're in real good shape come Day Four. That being said, Eddie's death lends weight to the Alice Plan (and thus lynching Paul), so we're going to have to do some serious spin and damage control. Plus, if Alice for some reason sticks to the Paul-and-gamin list, we're in a real tight spot. Fun times coming up.

Gamin (Mar 10):
The thing about Eddie is, I don't really think he's a role, but I do think a number of citizens are willing to follow him, and that he is set against several of us, as per Alice's supicions. And I couldn't begin to guess who has a role, so Eddie is probably our best choice.

Tock (Mar 10):
assuming we don't have a change of heart within the next few hours, and that Bodhi is not strongly opposed:
Merus: time to kill Eddie.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 11):
Three cheers for whacking Eddie!

Merus (Mar 10):
Okay, still waiting on the angels to get back to me. (Allllllllice!)

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 11):
Honestly, isn't it part of the rules that a role doesn't participate if they don't get back to you in 48 hours? Maybe I'm just biased here but I think she should forfeit her turn if she doesn't turn something in. it was definitely in the game 1 rules I think. I think it should still be.
At one point I actually considered voting to whack Alice on the chance that she would forget to/fail to turn in a protection on time and thereby leave herself open.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 11):

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 11):
Also, you probably shouldn't have told us that.

Merus (Mar 11):
Eh, probably not. But then you know for sure that the one angel left protected Alice, so there's not a huge point in being coy.
This was partly my bad; I was planning on starting the next day at work, but work locked off the internet. Anyway! Pulling the sun up now I'm home.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 10):
what is this like for you, merus? it must drive you insane to know all the answers already!

Merus (Mar 11):
Like you wouldn't believe! It is fun to watch you all, though it's also very hard to remember not to give away any hints.
Anyway, Eddie was a Civilian.

Shbhatt@googlewave.com (Mar 11):
ffffffuck

Destil
04-08-2010, 09:57 PM
Merus (Mar 18):
Mafia East Speakeasy - Night 3
Well, that was an interesting day, wasn't it?
I'm told that Paul may not be able to participate in the entirety of night phase. Have a good holiday, Paul!

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 18):
I can get this early remark in since we hit night early, but that will likely be it. It's up to you guys.
first: I should've gone with my gut on Guesty. I thought he was trying too hard to lay low most likely because of a role. Of course my gut also told me Spineshark was the inspector, and we all saw me last game, so hah.
Anyway:
We're in a bad spot. We've lost Tock, and if they follow their plans we may lose Bodhi and/or gamin soon too. My position no longer appears to be so strong, and I'm likely on the inspection block soon as well (Possibly Destil, but if people think he's innocent now that Tock was guilty that may exonerate him enough) and even Garrison has been questioned again. There are only so many people besides us that are possibly suspicious anymore (Lilsprite, Spineshark, Destil. Spineshark will be the easiest target to pursue due to his inactivity, but still won't be easy. Lilsprite may gain traction as well.) Even if they swing randomly they've got a very good chance, and they probably know better than to think they have to swing randomly.
This is high risk time:
We have to play their shell game. We probably can't win even if we take the roles out because they're too powerful and the rules of this game are stupid, but I think we quite literally have a 0% chance if they stay alive, so this puts us in straight up nothing-to-lose territory.
I don't know how best to go about it. Either we actually play and pick entirely randomly, or we try to game it.
Who is the most important to take out? I'm not entirely sure. The inspector can lead against us, but the vigilante can get them double-kills. Leaning vigilante for that reason. Which leads to:
Which of the three is most likely to be protected on the surface if Dizzy doesn't play the game?
Will Dizzy protect himself in anticipation of our going for him as the easier target? Do we anticipate that and go for Mr. J or Guesty instead?
Maybe it would be better to go randomly after all.
~If we random and Dizzy randoms: we have a 66% chance. Possibly more - what are the chances that two rolls of 3 land on the same one? (been away from math for a while, can you tell?)
~If Dizzy randoms and we don't: We have a 66% chance anyway, because his target was random.
~If we random and Dizzy doesn't: 66% because our target was random.
~If neither of us random: fuckin' Death Note all up in here, may the triple-quadruplest thinker win.
Either way, it's not a bad position to be in for the night kills... just not a good one either.
I have to finish packing and get to bed so I'm going to sign off. Good luck, guys. Take 'er home!

Garrison (Mar 18):
Guys, I've run dozens of scenarios in my head and none of them are all that great. I'm with Paul on just taking a risk. We've pretty much lost as it is, so there's no harm in trying something risky. Personally, I say if we whiff, we might as well wave around our white flag, because we sure as hell aren't going to win at that point.
As far as who we kill, it's kind of tough call. I think Dizzy isn't going to be protecting himself for sure, but having an angel around past tomorrow is kind of pointless as it is. I'm weighing in who's more important in the long run and I think that's probably Mr.J which makes me think that he's more likely to be protected.
This is pretty bad guys

Gamin (Mar 18):
Agreed, our backs are to the wall now. It's high risk time.
So our choice is between:
Dizzy, the angel
Mr. J the Inspector
Guesty the vigilante
My first pick would be Guesty, because that will remove their 2 kill advantage.
Unfortunately, Guesty will absolutely kill mafia tonight. But we can stop him from killing tomorrow night. We're all suspected, so he would likely hit us again tomorrow night if we leave him be.
There's still a chance Mr. J will investigate non-mafia, and if we kill him tomorrow night at most he'll only have one more confirmed Mafia investigated. Whereas Guesty would likely have a second mafia kill tomorrow night.
The question is, who's Dizzy going to protect? Is it even possible to get inside his head?

Garrison (Mar 18):
To be perfectly honest, I feel that J is probably the bigger threat. This would be a great point for a bloc to be formed. A bloc would absoluetely crush us, while Guesty can still screw up and hit someone like SuperRube or LilSpriteX. Now, do we think Dizzy would actually protect J? I know this goes without saying, but Dizzy is kind of unpredictable.
Killing Guesty would help us as well, but I don't think it would be as strategically sound. Any thoughts?

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
I'm sorry for the way yesterday played out, guys, though I hope to still add anything that I can. I think the best way to go forward is to draw out as many victory scenarios as possible, and how to play each one.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
CHOICE 1: Kill Guesty during night 3
Pros: Slows the progression of a motivated town. Removes the ability to have another role substantiate pappy.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
If Mr. J investigates a citizen then the roles will be:
Mafia [3]: Paul, gamin, garrison
Bloc members [3]: Brick, Dizzy, [citizen#1]
More or less trusted by role [2]: Pappy, Mr. J
Not necessarily trusted by town [4]: Superrube, Spineshark, LilSpriteX, Destil, [-citizen 1]

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
If Mr. J investigates a member of the mafia
Another mafia lynch will place the number of surviving mafia below the current level of the bloc. The only way to win is to somehow break the bloc of confirmed innocents.

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
CHOICE 2: Kill Mr. J during night 3
Players coming into Day 4:
Pappy will call Mr. J as the investigator; and while the bloc will be solid it will cease to grow.
Mafia [3]: Paul, gamin, garrison
Bloc members [2]: Brick, Dizzy
More or less trusted by role [2]: Pappy, Guesty
Not necessarily trusted by town [4]: Superrube, Spineshark, LilSpriteX, Destil

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
Destil is lynched during Day 4; Guesty is killed during night 4, shotguns Superrube, Spineshark, or LilSpriteX:
Players entering Day 5:
Mafia [3]: Paul, gamin, garrison
Bloc members [2]: Brick, Dizzy
More or less trusted by town [1]: Pappy
Not necessarily trusted by town [2]: two remaining.
If one of the two untrusted citizens is lynched during day 5; and we don't whiff during night 5; we win 3 / 3.
Path to victory: Kill Mr. J tonight, lynch Destil [or Superrube, Spineshark, Sprite] during the day and set the other up for a shotgunning, kill Guesty, lynch remaining citizen.

Gamin (Mar 19):
I would caution against going after Destil strongly--its been said that Tock's guilt gives Destil some amount of innocence seeing as how strongly Tock went after him.
Should we shift our energies towards LilSpriteX, Superrube or Spineshark?

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
Destil is lynched during Day 4; Guesty is killed during night 4, shotguns paul, gamin, or garrison:
Players entering Day 5:
Mafia [2]: two remaining.
Bloc members [2]: Brick, Dizzy
More or less trusted by town [1]: Pappy
Not necessarily trusted by town [3]: Superrube, Spineshark, or LilSpriteX

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
Mafia is lynched during Day 4; Guesty is killed during night 4, shotguns citizen
Mafia [2]: two remaining
Bloc members: Brick, Dizzy
More or less trusted by town: Pappy
Not necessarily trusted by town: Superrube, Spineshark, or LilSpriteX

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
CHOICE 3: Kill Dizzy during night 3

Bodhitraveller (Mar 18):
CHOICE [4?]: Whiff during night 3

Gamin (Mar 19):
That is all true about the block--then I guess the inspector is our greatest enemy. But is Dizzy going to protect him?
Do we even have a choice? If the inspector and the vigilante survive into Day 4, we've pretty much lost.

Garrison (Mar 19):
Our only chance is to try and take out Mr.J. If we whiff, there's no way we can pull it off.

Garrison (Mar 20):
I guess if no one speaks up, we're going to kill Mr.J. I'm not sure if we want to throw in the towel if we whiff. If someone else has anything better by our deadline, please speak up.

Merus (Mar 20):
Okay, whacking Mr. J.
He wasn't protected, and as he claimed, he was the Inspector.

Destil
04-08-2010, 09:58 PM
Merus (Mar 23):
Mafia East Speakeasy - Night 4
Have at it, brothers.
...wait. Are there really only two of you left? Oh dear.

Garrison (Mar 23):
I've got nothing, I thought I did, but my math was wrong and we're screwed.

Merus (Mar 24):
So by 'screwed', do you mean that you're surrendering? Or are you going to take a shot and hope for silly play from the citizens?

Garrison (Mar 24):
If it was just me, I'd say yes. Since Paul is still alive, I'd like for him to decide as well.I guess if Paul doesn't respond by the 48 hour deadline, go ahead and end the game. I'm at a loss.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 24):
If we're going to surrender I'd rather do it in-game. But the game is factually lost at this point - it would take a massive chunk of retardation on their part to blunder into a loss. I haven't caught back up on the thread yet, so I'll see what's up, but we might as well kill one last person just for the hell of it.
Brickroad or Guesty.

Garrison (Mar 24):
I'm fine with either. Guesty may be a better move, but killing Brickroad at this point almost seems too comical to pass up.

Garrison (Mar 24):
I've been thinking, Brickroad seems to have a fairly big ego and I think it would be fun to toy with. I really don't want to feed into it if we don't have to, especially when we're in a lose/lose situation. I'm thinking about going Guesty based almost solely off that.
I'm probably not going to be on the next time you are Paul since I believe you're on the opposite side of the planet, but it's been a pleasure. I look forward to playing Mafia 3 with you and all my mafia brothers. Peace.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 25):
As much as I'd love to kill Brickroad - I should have pushed for him over Eddie, knowing he'd be investigated and therefore an eventual bloc member - it has to be Guesty if we want the tiniest chance, so let's just go ahead and kill Guesty. If he dies... MAYBE we have something, but probably not. If he doesn't, who gives a shit, game's over anyway? We can just drag it on for now and see if they manage to paranoia themselves into another citizen lynch without our help (remember, between us only one of us is likely mafia according to sprite, I think? I don't know, having trouble caring since we lost a few days back.
Anyway, I also don't think we should give in. Let them smoke us out the old-fashioned way, do as much damage to themselves as possible along the way. I'll write up a personal lynch story, though, just in case.

Merus (Mar 25):
Going for Guesty?
I'm afraid it bounced. The Angel nominated Guesty tonight.

Destil
04-08-2010, 09:59 PM
Merus (Mar 27):
Mafia East Speakeasy - Night Five
Nicely done, Paul. What will you and Garrison do tonight?

Garrison (Mar 27):
If our hit goes well tonight and Guesty kills someone besides us, that'll leave five of them. We can probably talk people into lynching Destil, but I think Dizzy is probably going to try and lynch me. Still looks pretty awful, but at least we made a dent in their numbers.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 27):
Well, we need to eliminate bloc members still, and probably the vigilante.
What are the chances that Dizzy will protect Guesty for a second night in a row? He might think we'd try someone else. But Guesty's our top target as far as danger goes, because if he doesn't hit one of us tonight he's going to soon.
What are the chances that Dizzy will shift to protect himself, thinking we'd take him out over Guesty? Dizzy, in all his aspergian glory, seems to be playing his own game off in left field, but he's also on to Garrison. I don't think he has the attention span to make an accusation stick under normal circumstances, but tomorrow when suspects have dwindled to nearly nothing it won't take much to lynch anybody.
Or should we just kill Brickroad? It still gets him off the bloc, but the vig is going to hit one of us soon if he doesn't tonight. And he still seems content to stay in line with me, so maybe he should stick around. Not that I think we're going to win anyway so we might as well just have a little fun doing it. There's possible strategy in that, of course. I might not draw suspicion if my closest ally goes down.

Garrison (Mar 28):
A bloc member is definitely the ideal choice. As for right now, I'm just not sure who the best choice is. Guesty could put the game closer to our influence since he seems to have gone maverick on us, Dizzy kind of has it out for me and Brickroad I'm somewhat unsure about. Whatever way we do, we should just keep playing the way we have been I suppose. I doubt very highly that we'll win, but there's no reason to go down without a fight I suppose.

Paul.le.fou@googlewave.com (Mar 28):
fffff I want to go after Guesty again but I dunno if he'll do it. Guesty is the clear target so he might just keep protecting him.
Also if we kill Dizzy it looks bad for you because he accused you. We'd have to balance the chances of his still going after you and making it stick - high - with the chances of guesty shotugunning you anyway or someone else going after you.
Dunno how much time I'll have after this so I'll leave the ultimate decision to you. I did a coinflip and came up Dizzy, but think Guesty might be our better chance. We're both gonna have to be ready to go on the line for tomorrow though.

Garrison (Mar 28):
Well, I guess let's just Kill Guesty. I don't really see a downside here if the kill goes through. If it doesn't well, at least we tried. That's gotta mean something, right?

Merus (Mar 28):
I'm afraid Guesty was once again protected by an Angel.

Destil
04-08-2010, 10:00 PM
Merus (Mar 31):
Garrison's House - Night 6
There's not much point going to the Speakeasy, considering you're the only one left now.
So there's one thing you have to ask yourself: will you turn yourself in, or is there one more person you want to take out?

Garrison (Mar 31):
Okay, since I know this going to get read, I think I'll just put down a few thoughts on the game. MVP of Mafia East was without a doubt Destil. I gunned for him pretty bad primarily because he made himself such an ample target. Everyone had him in mind for day 3 and for him to single handedly change the face of the game with a single post was pretty mind blowing. Runner up would probably be Dizzy or Mr.J. I kind of have problems with both of their overarching strategies, but I think they did pretty good overall. Dizzy's trickery over protecting Guesty was something I just wasn't catching onto. Apparently no one else did either since, well, we tried to kill Guesty. Mr.J is pretty much the only reason Destil got his chance to shine, so I figure that has got to count for something.
Anyways, well played Citizens East. Good job in crushing the six of us.
As far as my plans go, I'd like to try and Kill Guesty once more, but I'm probably just going to come clean immediately after Day 7 starts anyways. So I guess just go ahead and roll with it.

Merus (Mar 31):
Okay.
Guesty was the Vigilante. Your hit was successful!